Skip to comments.Gallup : Bush 49 Kerry 47 LV
Posted on 10/31/2004 5:20:29 PM PST by motife
A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 perc
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
Thanks for posting the LV results with the correct headline and not the BS 49-49 headline from Aaron Brown.
Numbers posted elsewhere don't agree with link above.
(passing out Xanex and Oxycontin all around)
is it 49-47 or 49-49 -- because there website says 49-49 but the text says 49-47
Make mine an IV drip, please.
The Gallup website itself is showing 49 to 49.. CNN is showing 49 to 47
It was 49-47. CNN put all the undecideds in Kerry's column. Garbage poll!
States outside margin of error
Those states were Wisconsin, where Bush led by 8 points, and Minnesota, where Kerry led by 8 points.
In the other states, Bush had leads of 2 points in Iowa and 4 points in Pennsylvania. Kerry had leads of 3 points in Florida and 4 points in Ohio.
From Joe Scarborough's website for today:
October 31, 2004| 1:12 p.m. ET
Who is smelling victory today? (Joe Scarborough)
Just a couple of quick thoughts as the election streaks down the home stretch.
As mentioned yesterday, Republican insiders on the Bush campaign are smelling victory as internal polls in most of the swing states are inching their way. Now we read the same from an Associated Press article posted early this morning--except this time it is Kerry supporters who are sensing the tide may be breaking against them.
This from the AP:
"The men were campaigning Sunday in tightly contested battleground states. Both had appearances scheduled in Florida and Ohio; Kerry was also speaking in New Hampshire.
A new poll showed the president moving ahead of Kerry in the popular vote, and Democrats said their private surveys hinted at momentum for Bush."
Ohio polls also appear to be breaking Bush's way. A victory by the President in Florida and Ohio makes Tuesday an early evening.
On the other side of the equation, a Kerry victory in Florida dooms W's reelection chances. The only reason I bring up a Florida loss for Bush, which I have been dismissing for weeks now, is because the remarkable scenes at the Supervisor of Elections office in my hometown of Pensacola, Florida. Voters waited in line for up to five hours yesterday in a heavily Republican leaning area, and yet it was a decidedly Democratic crowd that was spending their Saturday waiting to vote for John Kerry.
Karl Rove and the Bush White House has known this election was going to be about voter turnout for four years now. We will see if they were prepared for the onslaught of early voters they are now facing.
One final thought. Taking a quick look at the front page of the New York Times this morning was telling. While Bush supporters were holding signs in praise of their candidate, the top Kerry photo showed a father, his young daughter and a baby doll with stickers emblazoned with a lined out "W."
When the election is more about who you hate than who you love, you are less likely to get out and vote. Just ask all those Clinton-haters in the 1990s, who despite seeing the Democratic president as evil personified, never got within striking distance of getting him out of office.
I suspect the hoard of Bush haters will wake up Wednesday morning learning the same bitter lesson.
I'll check back in from Flyover Space in the next few hours. Till then, don't give in to hate.
Thoughts? E-mail me at JScarborough@msnbc.com
This is a bit better than previous posting, but I am still going to stroke out before this is over.
I think that you are referring to the 49-49 poll.
According to this ling, that other poll was specifically over the battleground states.
Cnn/Gallup. where is the Gallup poll? The two are not the same thing.
Shaken or stirred?
Their numbers acually show Kerry having a suddenly better result than Busn about Iraq. That indicates they polled during the height of the refuted 377 missing tons (of 400,000 secured) story. The public has had a chance to get the straight dope on this now, having heard from the Pentagon.
Fla and Ohio K leads??
We will know Tuesday how accurate these polls have been.
I personally think Republicans are being undersampled by at least 5%.
Even with these polls Bush wins 270 to 264. Even though they are BS.. Bush still wins.
If you allocate the remaining undecideds to Kerry its a tie. If you allocate them to Bush, he gets 51%. Right now he has a 2 point lead among likely voters. The margin's close enough to allow the Democrats all sorts of cheating opportunities. If that stands, we're probably looking at a President Kerry in 2005.
Who is surprised? The MSM has wanted this all along. It won't be close come Tuesday and the MSM will wonder what went wrong? The passion for truth and righteousness in this country will carry the day. Pray, fast, vote and volunteer and watch Tuesday as W's victory will be clear.
Oh yea...BTW, 52-47 w/k...sKerry has never polled over 47 and he won't after Tuesday.
Uh, don't count on it - before any MSM could tell the story about the Major that came forward at the Pentagon, you had the tape of Bin Ladin show up.
That wiped the story from the Pentagon off the radar. So you take the people that believe the NYT story, add a little threat from Bin Ladin and you have a lot of people convinced that Bush messed up bigtime.
Thank you flashbunny, I needed that.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Btw, howdy Army!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
an all weekend poll which show Bush ahead with Likely voters with a 51 approval rating. Not what I was hoping for but it could be worse
Gallup came up with 49-47, but then did some sort of statistical thing to allocate the remaining undecideds (in other words gave them all to Kerry) and said 49-49. They probably did that just so whoever wins they can't be wrong. But giving that it was on a weekend, I'd say the overall truth is around 50-46 or so. All about turnout now.
If we give Bush Penn. and Wisconsin in addition NM and IA, Bush wins with 270 to Kerry's 268. Wooo. That's losing Ohio and Florida.
We all know that's BS though. As stated ad nauseaum, weekend polls are the most unreliable. We all know that on Friday, people are at football games or preparing to enjoy the night life. On Saturday, they are either sleeping during the day, enjoying a day outdoors, or shopping. On Sunday, people are either sleeping, at Church, or enjoying the day out of the house.
Unfortunately these are the last polls.
Just like some wit stated the other night; "The MSM; Rather, Jennings, Brokaw, Brown, Colmes, Mathews, etc with tears in their eyes, will be asking Americans to stay calm until the lawyers get it sorted out."
IMHO, The Fat Lady can start warming up........Bush in a landslide, results by 1100PM. Finally a good nights sleep.
Among likely voters, Bush job approval is at 51%, 49% among all voters polled.
Gallup special sauce right from jack in the box after insisting all year long they don't sauce their polls. Twilight zone year.
There state polls are all over the damn lot. LOL. Bad year for statisticians let me tell ya.
Surprise surprise! (Gomer voice)
They are promoting the RV result to increase Kerry voter turnout. The LV count would make lazy potential 'rat voters see momentum in Bush's favor and depress their turnout.
that's right blt, Kerry never polled higher than 47% for the most part, four months ago my wife said Bush 52-kerry 47, I'll say 51-48, bush 280+ EV, most
I went and saw him in Tampa today. He seemed very upbeat and positive.
it helps us by making these polls close thats why there is no contesting these polls from our side. I think there will be a 5% margin for bush and that all the pollsters will get out of it by saying binladen tape effected numbers.
Zogby Kerry +8
Gallup Bush +7
Sorry guys, but I'm not so sure this is playing out the way I'd like. If the National poll is accurate, Bush + 2, how can that equal good state polls. Bush is pulling in a lot more votes from Gore wins, but which he will still lose this time around...i.e. Calif., NJ, MI, OR..... Down south Bush is probably winning as big or bigger than 2000.
Something isn't right, possibly my head with all the vino in it.
IMHO the MSM is trying to fix election by using the polls. We all must vote.
THE POLL IS NOT ACCURATE. IT IS A WEEKEND POLL FROM AN ORGANIZATION KNOWN FOR VERY BAD WEEKEND POLLS.
End of story.
You are absolutely correct. But now that the big polls are behind us, let's think back to what Rove was saying 3 years ago. He said this vote would come down to turnout. And he focused the B/C re-election effort on making sure that turnout would be in our favor. I remember a few months ago people complaining that the B/C campaign was spending too much on developing GOTV efforts and not enough on campaign advertising. Well, based on the full out onslought of negative media effort against Bush, I am convinced that money spent on B/C advertising is almost wasted. Instead, money dedicated to GOTV is the only way to counter our media. On 2 November, we will learn if the GOTV effort paid off. Given that Rove accurately predicted today 3 years ago, my money is going on his success at getting out the vote. We are essentially exactly where we were at this piont in 2000 poll-wise. The difference this year is that our voters will be going to the polls.
That was a secret sauce number where the pollsters tried to guess who the undecideds would go for. Of course they "guessed" 100% of undecideds go to Kerry!