Skip to comments.Gallup : Bush 49 Kerry 47 LV
Posted on 10/31/2004 5:20:29 PM PST by motife
A separate Gallup poll of likely voters indicated a similar split nationwide, with 49 percent choosing Bush and 47 percent taking Kerry -- a virtual tie given the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Independent candidate Ralph Nader had 1 perc
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it helps us by making these polls close thats why there is no contesting these polls from our side. I think there will be a 5% margin for bush and that all the pollsters will get out of it by saying binladen tape effected numbers.
Zogby Kerry +8
Gallup Bush +7
Sorry guys, but I'm not so sure this is playing out the way I'd like. If the National poll is accurate, Bush + 2, how can that equal good state polls. Bush is pulling in a lot more votes from Gore wins, but which he will still lose this time around...i.e. Calif., NJ, MI, OR..... Down south Bush is probably winning as big or bigger than 2000.
Something isn't right, possibly my head with all the vino in it.
IMHO the MSM is trying to fix election by using the polls. We all must vote.
THE POLL IS NOT ACCURATE. IT IS A WEEKEND POLL FROM AN ORGANIZATION KNOWN FOR VERY BAD WEEKEND POLLS.
End of story.
You are absolutely correct. But now that the big polls are behind us, let's think back to what Rove was saying 3 years ago. He said this vote would come down to turnout. And he focused the B/C re-election effort on making sure that turnout would be in our favor. I remember a few months ago people complaining that the B/C campaign was spending too much on developing GOTV efforts and not enough on campaign advertising. Well, based on the full out onslought of negative media effort against Bush, I am convinced that money spent on B/C advertising is almost wasted. Instead, money dedicated to GOTV is the only way to counter our media. On 2 November, we will learn if the GOTV effort paid off. Given that Rove accurately predicted today 3 years ago, my money is going on his success at getting out the vote. We are essentially exactly where we were at this piont in 2000 poll-wise. The difference this year is that our voters will be going to the polls.
That was a secret sauce number where the pollsters tried to guess who the undecideds would go for. Of course they "guessed" 100% of undecideds go to Kerry!
I guess Kerry doing worse than Gore with blacks, women, and jews smells like victory to some, but absent voter fraud it is over.
I ask because it seems they were wildly off-base in 2002, especially Zogby. If Gallup were accurate, I'll have to take this as being pretty accurate, too...or at least as close to accurate as they can be. But they are bucking so many trends in the state-by states.
The people freaking out don't seem to see that even in this wonky set-up Bush wins.
Not all of the story. There are forces that will do all they can to throw this to Kerry. Remember Soros type money can make a lot of people do foolish things.
remember 2002 we were to loose control of house and senate we have learned alot from the unions and black churches our turnout is getting better(carl rove) theres has peaked
Good point. We are where Rove expected three years ago. Maybe he should have expected us to be up by just a bit more to save on our nerves.
Why is RCP posting the "allocated" 49/49 numbers?
THE MSM WANT A CLIFFHANGER. THEY ARE IN IT FOR THE MONEY. As soon as Gallup became CNN/GALLUP it became a tool of the MSM. This is no different than the fade away before the selection on the Bachelor.
A landslide. I want to be on record. (in the office, I'm on record).
Lurch in hiding!