Posted on 10/31/2004 5:20:29 PM PST by motife
You have the answer. Weekend poll. The last Gallup (+CNN+USA Today) has the same numbers as the last one. Sorry, folks, but the last accurate polls were conducted October 26-28. Anything after that is unreliable.
Has he updated to reflect this information?
This poll also THROWS OUT PEOPLE WHO HAVE ALREADY VOTED.
Thank you! Why can't people get it through their heads about weekend polling. Some people act is if they're going to be jumping off bridges because of these polls. The glass is half full not half empty!
No poll does that jimbo. They may be wrong, but they are not THAT dumb.
Most of the early voters went for Kerry. That means its worse.
The client (CNN) wanted Kerry momentuum, so Gallup had to generate two polls: one for the client and then the real one.
All these geniuses succeeded in doing was to create a greater perception of a close race and thereby increase Republic turnout.
Democrat fraud is already planned and shouldn't be substantailly affected by a perception of a close race.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
From Gallup:
1. (Asked of those who have not already voted) Now, suppose that the presidential election were being held today, and it included John Kerry and John Edwards as the Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney as the Republican candidates, and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo as independent candidates. Would you vote for:
1-1. (Asked of those who already voted) Who did you vote for in the presidential election?
"^ Beginning with October 22-24 poll, those who indicated they had already voted were asked who they voted for rather than who they would for if the election were held today."
The numbers being reported are for question 1. They are not reporting Question 1-1.
Bush operatives say they went for Bush. Spin, spin, spin, and then spin some more. Nobody knows.
You really think Gallup would exclude from aggregate poll numbers those that have already voted? Give me a break. The odds of that happening are zero. Zero. You can write that down.
Tonight's Gallup poll question with respect to congressional party preference shows a 4% swing from last week: From 50-47 in favor of Republicans to 48-47 Democrats (see table at USA Today website: http://www.usatoday.com). This indicates that Gallup almost certainly had at least 4% more Democrats in this week's sample. If you adjust the Presidential results for this difference, Bush has a 6 point lead, very similar to last week's results. The higher sampling of Dems would also explain the 5% decline in Pres. Bush's approval rating from last week.
Eliminate the bogus Florida and Ohio data, and it shows no such kerry surge. Too many good polling firms have the same dates polled, and Bush is either even or ahead in Ohio, and all have Bush up in Florida.
LLS
52 Bush 47 kerry nationally among early voters (AP, CNN, Reuters). Get your numbers straight.
LLS
They admitted that the poll numbers being reported on CNN do not include early voters. Read this link:
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/usatodaypolls.htm
Once a person votes early, Gallup does not count them in their likely voter results.
Anyone know if cnn/gallup did this same adjusting for undecided in 2000
I don't think that's true with respect to Gallup's exclusion of early voters. Their footnotes at the USA today site indicate they did include early voters (i.e. they were asked who they voted for rather than who they intended to vote for).
You are misreading the poll, but in any event, those who already voted, voted 49% to 47% for Bush, if one believes the poll is perfectly accurate.
The are only reporting LIKELY VOTERS in this poll. They are hiding their results for EARLY VOTERS.
Actually, the only thing that is differnt is how the question was phrased. There is otherwise no distinction between not yet voted and voted.
I am not misreading the poll. They are reporting LIKELY VOTERS only.
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