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***FINAL*** CAMEC - COMPUTER ANALYSIS MODEL OF ELECTORAL COLLEGE ***FINAL*** 10/31
10-31-04 | Josh in PA

Posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA

CAMEC PROJECTION - 2004 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

........Bush    	Kerry   	Nader	Others	Bush %	Kerry %	BUSH EV	KERRY EV
AL      1,081,230 	671,538 	14,250 	14,250 	60.7%	37.7%	9	
AK	214,668 	128,358 	17,705 	8,115 	58.2%	34.8%	3	
AZ	984,376 	828,949 	N/A	37,007 	53.2%	44.8%	10	
AR	604,025 	521,502 	10,315 	10,315 	52.7%	45.5%	6	
CA	5,340,714 	6,342,098 	N/A	238,425	44.8%	53.2%		55
CO	1,098,165 	975,669 	45,130 	30,087 	51.1%	45.4%	9	
CT	705,326 	881,658 	28,705 	24,604 	43.0%	53.8%		7
DE	178,960 	219,633 	5,084 	3,050 	44.0%	54.0%		3
DC	33,531 	        216,664 	5,159 	2,579 	13.0%	84.0%		3
FL	3,508,207 	3,202,259 	54,391 	33,994 	51.6%	47.1%	27	
GA	1,606,182 	1,179,187 	N/A	42,417 	56.8%	41.7%	15	
HI	247,879 	244,345 	N/A	12,621 	49.1%	48.4%	4	
ID	362,351 	166,987 	N/A	16,371 	66.4%	30.6%	4	
IL	2,323,137 	2,833,602 	N/A	52,088 	44.6%	54.4%		21
IN	1,540,899 	1,103,327 	N/A	40,267 	57.4%	41.1%	11	
IA      840,978 	807,271 	20,224 	16,853 	49.9%	47.9%	7	
KS	749,881 	481,248 	22,917 	19,097 	58.9%	37.8%	6	
KY	1,086,136 	742,069 	16,738 	14,879 	58.4%	39.9%	8	
LA	1,117,209 	887,256 	14,245 	16,280 	54.9%	43.6%	9	
ME	364,288 	393,337 	19,628 	7,851 	46.4%	50.1%	1	3
MD      990,427 	1,261,588 	27,576 	18,384 	43.1%	54.9%		10
MA	1,136,961 	1,780,242 	N/A	74,800 	38.0%	59.5%		12
MI	2,302,668 	2,354,679 	37,826 	33,098 	48.7%	49.8%		17
MN	1,343,268 	1,323,920 	55,279 	41,459 	48.6%	47.9%	10	
MS	693,712 	470,733 	7,079 	8,258 	58.8%	39.9%	6	
MO	1,394,513 	1,270,676 	N/A	26,921 	51.8%	47.2%	11	
MT	313,797 	184,004 	13,031 	10,425 	60.2%	35.3%	3	
NE	524,723 	278,425 	12,356 	8,237 	63.7%	33.8%	5	
NV      405,026 	367,773 	11,889 	7,926 	51.1%	46.4%	5	
NH	302,590 	308,228 	9,397 	6,265 	48.3%	49.2%		4
NJ	1,584,417 	1,751,378 	44,296 	27,259 	46.5%	51.4%		15
NM	397,722 	367,128 	11,767 	7,845 	50.7%	46.8%	5	
NY 	3,072,429 	4,198,490 	111,860 74,574 	41.2%	56.3%		31
NC	1,860,069 	1,575,506 	N/A	34,703 	53.6%	45.4%	15	
ND	211,063 	119,914 	6,931 	8,664 	60.9%	34.6%	3	
OH	2,904,354 	2,743,956 	N/A	80,199 	50.7%	47.9%	20	
OK	869,148 	512,002 	N/A	13,951 	62.3%	36.7%	7	
OR      800,537 	854,582 	N/A	33,778 	47.4%	50.6%		7
PA	2,636,463 	2,679,419 	N/A	53,696 	49.1%	49.9%		21
RI      209,236 	307,165 	13,378 	5,351 	39.1%	57.4%		4
SC	958,439 	660,879 	13,152 	11,508 	58.3%	40.2%	8	
SD	217,057 	147,183 	4,460 	2,973 	58.4%	39.6%	3	
TN	1,327,809 	1,004,126 	16,539 	14,176 	56.2%	42.5%	11	
TX	4,569,221 	2,822,166 	N/A	74,660 	61.2%	37.8%	34	
UT	614,659 	255,056 	18,025 	13,519 	68.2%	28.3%	5	
VT	135,032 	174,215 	9,715 	4,857 	41.7%	53.8%		3
VA	1,693,700 	1,481,988 	N/A	32,078 	52.8%	46.2%	13	
WA	1,258,821 	1,399,302 	41,318 	55,091 	45.7%	50.8%		11
WV	394,177 	342,568 	6,732 	4,488 	52.7%	45.8%	5	
WI	1,500,290 	1,431,138 	45,099 	30,066 	49.9%	47.6%	10	
WY	129,249 	67,079 	        3,068 	5,113 	63.2%	32.8%	3	

TOTAL 60,739,725 57,322,464 795k 1465k 50.5% 47.7% 311 227

50.48% 47.64% 0.66% 1.22%



TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: avanitynotapoll; awholelottanuthin; baloneyvanity; bogussource; bush; camec; camecisjustmylaptop; camecmeansvanity; election; electoralcollege; electoralvotes; enviouscrabs; freepersripafreeper; frforselfpublishing; ijustmadeitallup; jealousyinfreepers; kerry; lotsofwastedtime; nosource; polls; prediction; pulledoutofmyass; purplestates; sourcelessvanity; votes; wishesinastatformat
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CAMEC predicts Bush wins 311 to 227.

His only loss from 2000 is New Hampshire.

He picks up New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Hawaii, as well as a 1 EV in Maine.

Close battleground states predictions:

Florida, Bush wins by 4.5%
Hawaii, Bush wins by 0.7%
Iowa, Bush wins by 2.0%
Maine, Kerry wins by 3.7%, however Bush wins 1 EV from the 2nd Congressional District.
Michigan, Kerry wins by 1.1%
Minnesota, Bush wins by 0.7%
Nevada, Bush wins by 4.7%
New Hampshire, Kerry wins by 0.9%
New Mexico, Bush wins by 3.9%
Ohio, Bush wins by 2.8%
Oregon, Kerry wins by 3.2%
Pennsylvania, Kerry wins by 0.8%
Wisconsin, Bush wins by 2.3% --

Other notables:

New Jersey: Kerry wins by 4.9%

Nationally: Bush wins, 50.48% to 47.64%

Projected turnout: Around 120 million.

The "Great turnout helps Democrats" myth will be debunked this year as the GOP steps up there GOTV campaign and Bush earns 10 million more voters on top of 2000 totals.

1 posted on 10/31/2004 7:12:30 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: Josh in PA

Okay, who does "CAMEC"? Is this your own computer projection?


2 posted on 10/31/2004 7:13:37 PM PST by ScottM1968
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To: Josh in PA

Well that's good news but does this thing have a track record?


3 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:06 PM PST by Tribune7
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To: Josh in PA

wowowow
great news!!


4 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:07 PM PST by ArmyBratCutie ("Four boxes to be used in defense of liberty:soap, ballot, jury, ammo in this order!")
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To: Josh in PA

SOUNDS GOOD TO ME


5 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:15 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestus globus, inflammare animos)
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To: Josh in PA

Who is CAMEC?


6 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:27 PM PST by Illinois Rep
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To: ScottM1968

Bump


7 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:29 PM PST by ml1954
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To: Josh in PA

This is interesting. Could you explain what this is? I've never heard of it. Any previous projections to compare to show accuracy?


8 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:42 PM PST by Darkwolf377
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To: Josh in PA

This projection looks pretty good to me. I have the popular vote almost identical, although I am giving Bush 296 EC.


9 posted on 10/31/2004 7:14:45 PM PST by Tester10
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To: Josh in PA

Today we were hit by a herd of polls. I don't care what they say. Turnout, turnout. GET YOUR SOULS TO THE POLLS!


10 posted on 10/31/2004 7:15:05 PM PST by Kuksool (Get Your Souls To The Polls In November)
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To: Josh in PA

Who is CAMEC? How credible? (Excuse the ignorance)


11 posted on 10/31/2004 7:15:14 PM PST by clintonh8r (Vietnam veteran against "global testing.")
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To: Josh in PA

Don't know what CAMEC is, but it makes more sense than Zogby.


12 posted on 10/31/2004 7:15:40 PM PST by NewMediaFan (Fake but accurate)
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To: Josh in PA
NOOOOOOOOOOO...though I love the EC prediction, I cannot fathom another four years in a 'blue' state.
13 posted on 10/31/2004 7:16:04 PM PST by PennsylvaniaMom (FreeMartha)
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To: Josh in PA

Do you have a source for all of this data and these projections. I'd like to believe it, I really would...

But I don't know about Minnesota. Today, I'm not so sure even about Wisconsin. Pres. Bush can win without them, but I'd like to see why your model puts them in the WIN category.


14 posted on 10/31/2004 7:16:12 PM PST by Choose Ye This Day ("There are but two parties now, Traitors and Patriots." -- Ulysses S. Grant)
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To: ArmyBratCutie

Sorry, this is not news. It is speculation. I hope it ends up being correct. I ask a question. Why have we never seen the question "Do you think Bush and the Republicans will steal the election?


15 posted on 10/31/2004 7:16:14 PM PST by Texas Songwriter (Texas Songwriter)
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To: ScottM1968; Tribune7


Search CAMEC on FR for older projections from earlier this year and for more information.

CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well.


16 posted on 10/31/2004 7:16:21 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: Josh in PA

That looks great! Is there a history to compare the accuracy to?


17 posted on 10/31/2004 7:16:49 PM PST by KoRn
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To: Josh in PA

Bump to praise or jeer later.


18 posted on 10/31/2004 7:16:53 PM PST by Interesting Times (ABCNNBCBS -- yesterday's news.)
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To: Josh in PA

I did a Google and he's either an African Mining outfit or a Chinese aerospace firm


19 posted on 10/31/2004 7:17:04 PM PST by xkaydet65
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To: Illinois Rep

CARAVAN and MARINE EQUIPMENT COMPANY

http://www.camec.com.au/


20 posted on 10/31/2004 7:17:13 PM PST by ClintonBeGone (Take the first step in the war on terror - defeat John Kerry)
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To: Josh in PA
You know what's driving me nuts? (granted a short drive) It's how Gallup's state polls would give Bush the election, so would Zogby, so would Rasmussen, and so would Mason-Dixon...BUT all of them with DIFFERENT states! None of them agree. I would feel a lot better right now if Gallup had Bush up in Florida and Ohio.
21 posted on 10/31/2004 7:17:29 PM PST by jpf
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To: All

I did a google search and the only link that came up was here on freerepublic


22 posted on 10/31/2004 7:17:42 PM PST by chemical_boy
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To: Texas Songwriter

oh well....
and as far as the question....boy isnt that the truth... no on asks it because we dont do things like that....maybe we should start.....


23 posted on 10/31/2004 7:17:53 PM PST by ArmyBratCutie ("Four boxes to be used in defense of liberty:soap, ballot, jury, ammo in this order!")
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To: Chairman_December_19th_Society
Interesting projection.

5.56mm

24 posted on 10/31/2004 7:18:16 PM PST by M Kehoe
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To: clintonh8r
CAMEC= Central African Mining and Explorarory Company

?????

25 posted on 10/31/2004 7:18:27 PM PST by zeebee (Did you know that "Kerry-Edwards" anagrams to "Dark Dry Sewer"?)
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I should have put this in my first post, I apologize...

CAMEC is a computer program I've written that combines some 30+ variables, from polls, registration, previous election results, various economic indicators(misery, gdp, few others), a few other variables as well. I've devised a formula that combines all these variables and spits out numbers as so. You can search "CAMEC" in FreeRepublic history for previous projections.


26 posted on 10/31/2004 7:18:31 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: Josh in PA
MI 2,302,668 2,354,679 37,826 33,098 48.7% 49.8% 17

I hope you're wrong. I'm predicting Bush by about 17,000 votes. (Engler 1990 all over again)

Gay marriage ban saves the day.

27 posted on 10/31/2004 7:19:04 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("Dead or alive, I got a .45 - and I never miss!!!" - AC/DC - Problem Child)
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To: Josh in PA

Have you run your model against the 2000 election to see how accurate it would have predicted those results?


28 posted on 10/31/2004 7:19:13 PM PST by ClintonBeGone (Take the first step in the war on terror - defeat John Kerry)
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To: Texas Songwriter

hmmm an interesting response songwriter!


29 posted on 10/31/2004 7:19:24 PM PST by mk2000
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To: clintonh8r

yes, they are a data mining company

http://www.camec-plc.com/


30 posted on 10/31/2004 7:20:07 PM PST by beebuster2000 (waiting waiting waiting)
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To: Josh in PA

Thanks, have enjoyed and learned from your work.
I disagree with the turnout being this high, but not the results or the choices. Turnout is too optimistic. We will know Wednesday!


31 posted on 10/31/2004 7:20:10 PM PST by ConservativeGreek
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To: Josh in PA
Just curious how you gauged voter loyalty? (how strongly they feel and how likely they are to vote?)
Reason I ask is I'm a software guy too, and I can count beans but never could put a value on customer loyalty in any business app I wrote.
32 posted on 10/31/2004 7:20:32 PM PST by ProudVet77 (W stands for Winner)
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To: Josh in PA

Given your predictions that Bush just barely loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, what are the chances that a last-minute visit to these states would put them in his column?


33 posted on 10/31/2004 7:20:56 PM PST by Holden Magroin
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To: ArmyBratCutie
Don't get sucked in...these poll watchers are ALWAYS wishful thinkers - period.

Ignore them - period.

We'll find out who won in good time, but probably not before the attorneys decide it's time for "winter soltice" break...[lawyers don't "do" Christmas, you know]

34 posted on 10/31/2004 7:21:06 PM PST by ErnBatavia (Democrats: appear in September, leavin' November 3 - worse than a 1-night stand...)
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To: Josh in PA

No problem. How accurate has it been in the past?


35 posted on 10/31/2004 7:21:11 PM PST by null and void (If the next attack is 5X worse than 9/11, who do you want in the White House leading us?)
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To: Josh in PA

I like what I see. Maybe something will turn the tide in PA and we can get some extra insurance.


36 posted on 10/31/2004 7:21:20 PM PST by nelibeli (you are who you are when you are alone........)
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To: Josh in PA

Josh - do you have this posted on the internet? The table you've posted is misaligned for some of the larger states and the total (the bigger numbers push the next column over by one tab, and it becomes difficult to read).


37 posted on 10/31/2004 7:21:32 PM PST by brewcrew
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To: NewMediaFan
Just saw a post from Gallup on FR, and it scared the clinton out of me.

This old goat take much more of this.

38 posted on 10/31/2004 7:22:07 PM PST by oldtimer
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To: Josh in PA

Josh my friend I pray that you are correct.

I am going to print this for Tuesday night.

Thanks


39 posted on 10/31/2004 7:22:16 PM PST by notpoliticallycorewrecked (Another military family for Bush;)
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To: ClintonBeGone


I have backtested this model against the previous two elections, 1996 and 2000. (Pretty short on 1996 state polling data though).

You're not going to get perfect results across the board in every state unless you start manipulating the formula from state to state in an unrealistic manner.


I'm fairly confident in it's accuracy for this election.


40 posted on 10/31/2004 7:22:51 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: xkaydet65

Mining space?


41 posted on 10/31/2004 7:23:12 PM PST by mad_as_he$$ (Never corner anything meaner than you. NSDQ, De Opresso Liber.)
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To: jpf

Earlier this month, sKerry's original plan was to camp out in OH and FL for the rest of the election cycle. However Bush's campaign swings into OR, NJ, HI, MI, MN, NM, and IA must have melted down sKerry's support in those states. Thus creating a very fickle electorate. 2004 will be remembered as being the year of the fickle voter.


42 posted on 10/31/2004 7:23:17 PM PST by Kuksool (Get Your Souls To The Polls In November)
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To: Interesting Times
"Bump to praise or jeer later."

LOL

43 posted on 10/31/2004 7:23:23 PM PST by I'mPeach
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To: jpf

How is it possible Gallup could have Mr Bush up by 8 in FL just 6 days ago while today they say he is down by 3?? I just don't believe it. Gallup's national poll also shows Bush way ahead among men while the Fox poll says he is trailing. Makes me think none of these things is accurate.


44 posted on 10/31/2004 7:24:30 PM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: Josh in PA

Give us a little backround about this. I love the results and I definitely will looking to see if Presidnt Bush gets 60 million votes or greater. That would be fine by me.


45 posted on 10/31/2004 7:24:34 PM PST by Moconservative
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To: PennsylvaniaMom

Embarrassing and painful here, ain't it?!


46 posted on 10/31/2004 7:24:42 PM PST by Gondring (They can have my Bill of Rights when they pry it from my cold, dead hands!)
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To: Josh in PA
311 to 227 was the exact prediction I made on 10/15/04.

Now we'll see if I'm as good as the computer. :)

47 posted on 10/31/2004 7:24:43 PM PST by TonyInOhio (Never give in. Never give in. Never. Never. Never.)
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To: brewcrew

Yikes, I spent 20 minutes formatting that to fit my screen.. It must not be fitting all the screens..

If I find time tomorrow I'll fire up a free website somewhere and put it on. Right now I'm pretty beat and heading to bed.


48 posted on 10/31/2004 7:25:40 PM PST by Josh in PA
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To: Kuksool

My son is 26, NEVER cared about politics at all, neither has my husband...they always said it didn't matter. THIS YEAR THEY ARE VOTING FOR THE FIRST TIME!!! Along with my 2 daughters who can for the first time....I've never missed a vote...so I have 4 new voters in my house alone!!


49 posted on 10/31/2004 7:25:46 PM PST by Jewels1091
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To: Josh in PA; GatorGirl; maryz; afraidfortherepublic; Antoninus; Aquinasfan; livius; ...

Humph. Pessimist. :)


50 posted on 10/31/2004 7:25:56 PM PST by narses (If you want ON or OFF my Catholic Ping List email me. + http://www.alamo-girl.com/)
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