Skip to comments.2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 11/1/2004
Posted on 11/01/2004 4:47:13 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
|State||% Chance of Bush Winning||Bush Electoral Votes||Kerry Electoral Votes|
|District of Columbia||0.7||0||3|
According to the current trading prices of the futures contracts, an estimate can be found of what traders are betting will be the outcome of 2004 Presidential Election.
If the traders are correct, President Bush would receive 286 Electoral Votes and John Kerry would receive 252 Electoral Votes.
If the weighted probabilities of President Bush winning in the states are added up, and then divided by 538, and multiplied by 100, then President Bush should get 276.24 Electoral Votes.
270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the Presidency.
Opinions and commentary are welcome.
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2004 Projected Presidential Electoral Votes as of 1/21/2004
I can't help but think the Kerry/lib/dems/complicit-msm have one more bucket of mud to sling today.
Still up, thats good. The betting is on Bush. Hope the votes are!!!!
holy toledo 276?? wow, that means it's anybody's ballgame.
And WI, MN, and NH makes 310 for Bush.
Forget realclearpolitics. This is the absolute best analysis out there.
Thanks for posting it.
I like the percentage factor, instead of the lasting polling data for each state.
I agree that Bush will carry FL and OH. He will lose PA and MI.
But, Bush's strategy has more options than Kerry's.
This table points that fact out quite nicely.
I'd put a few bucks on the Hawaii race....
The bettors better be right about OH and FL. No margin for error.
I've said it before, I believe Bush is in the fight of his life for Ohio...and the polls are ignoring, for the most part, college students and their cell phones. These people, normally only interested in sex and partying, have been energized by the frenzied Bush haters and will turn outin force, and Ohio has how many college students??? Thousands? And does any Freeper think these skulls full of mush will vote with their heads over their hearts???
Most places I have seen are putting New Mexico in the Kerry pile, whereas the betting here has it for Bush at 61%.
Any local FReepers know what's going down there?
Also (I know you have lots of time on your hands), it would be nice to plot the symmetrical plot with Kerry's numbers below the Green line. Kind of like the Iowa Electronic Market does it.
I'll take it.
Over the years politicos have tried to energize the college vote and have never had much success. Even in the 60s there were a handfull of hot-spots but most of college bound America was tuned out.
Whenever somebody talks about the college kids, I remember 1984 when I was really active in College Republicans. We had a great crew, walked precincts, ran GOTV phone banks and were really into it. On election day, I had two exams and didn't walk out of my last class until 5:00pm...as I came out of the building I ran into a bud who asked if I was up for a beer.
Next morning, I woke up and realized *sh&t* I didn't vote.
BTW ... Have you played with this?
These college students with cell phones are the same people we were calling Deaniacs last year. Remember how 10's of thousands of them were going to show up at evey primary and Dean was going to sweep to victory? We'll see tomorrow, but I expect Bush to win in Ohio.
In the 60's, the vast majority of college students were under 21. the leal voting age at that time.
Most college students, or anyone in this age group, will not stand in line to do anything unless it's to get free concert tickets. Some of them wouldn't even do that. Believe me, if they have to go to ANY effort, they won't vote.
Incredible so many people are putting money on The Fraud. Sheesh!
Ohio is a must-win. Look for major Dem fraud there.
ORegon should be up at 40%. HEck W lost it bu less than 1% in 2000.....what's changed? Could be the surprise of the night.
College student turnout has always been notoriously poor. Granted, that could change at any time but I would bet that "Hip Hop Nation" will decide to sleep in tomorrow, have a few brewskis, smoke a couple of pipes and do its voting on Wednesday.
Peesh, I knew Bush won when I saw the Weekly Reader results. That's the best poll in the country and anyone that doesn't take it seriously is deluded.
leal = legal
Agreed that the historical college voting turnout has been disgraceful (good news for the GOP, at least)but, with the election appearing winnable for the lefties by mere virtue of showing up to vote, do you think the little dears won't cease their narcissm long enough to pull a couple of levers? Do you think the first time voters residing in these left wing think tanks don't remember 2000 and the impact of a few votes here and there? Anybody that thinks this election is a done deal at this point should think again...sure Kerry has no margin for error, but Ohio is quite winnable for him, and if he winds Ohio, we will be referring to President elect Kerry on Wednesday of this week...then again, it's quite winnable for Bush as well...sorry for the equivocation, but this thing is up for grabs, in a big way...
I am coming to work tomorrow - but I have taken Wed. and the rest of the week off as "vacation time" - I could have probably taken the rest of the week off as "sick time" since I have plenty of sick symptoms. I need a Valium or something
I may have missed this before, but have you commented on how accurate these guys are with reguards to the last election? Were they around for 2000? If so, did they get that right too?
True, but while lowering the voting age makes the pool larger, it doesn't increase their general propensity to vote.
After Bruce Springsteen made his appearance with Kerry in front of 80k people, a reporter asked a couple of the girls in the audience about voting Kerry. They looked at each other an broke out into laughter.
A mob scene with music is cool, but I don't see it translating into going down to the poll, standing in line, and getting the vote in the box. Maybe I'm just cynical.
Interesting that Kerry is given a 1.7% chance in Massachusetts.
The problem with this model is that it only allows democrats to vote one time. It ignores the rampant vote fraud that is happening. Please note that I wrote IS happening, rather than will happen; they got an early start this election.
Mark A Sity
This election will be close in key areas like Ohio and there's no excuse for complacency surely. That said, my experience with narcissistic lefties has been that nothing short of onest work for a long time is strong enough to break it. They believe so thoroughly in the principle of Free Stuff that even the tiny effort involved in getting off the couch, putting down the bong, going down to the poll, standing in line and pulling the lever is a violation of the Purity of the Free Stuff Idea. They have no more memory of the 2000 election than my dog has. That said, since Republicans doubt the Free Stuff notion, we must make a concerted effort to turn out every Republican vote.
You know, I'm on the ground here in what some have called the battleground region of a battleground state (central OH, Franklin Co.). I have seen tremendous numbers of Kerry-Edwards ads running on local cable to essentially none for Bush-Cheney. There are numerous yard signs for Kerry in places (like my neighborhood) where you would expect Republican strength, middle class, persons of no-color. I have read stories where the 'rats have registered something like 100,000 more new voters than Republicans. Given that Bush's margin here in 2000 was just a little over that, coupled with anxiety over the 200,000+ jobs lost here in the last four years, and you're looking at a state ripe for picking by the 'Rats.
Other FReepers in different areas of the state have noted on these threads that they have seen Bush strength elsewhere, and I do not doubt that this is true. Bush is strong in the southern part of the state, the Cincinnati area, but that is typically true for Republican candidates. I have heard that the Dayton suburbs have also indicated some measure of support for Bush-Cheney. But central OH looks very, very close, with the edge to Kerry at this point, I'm sorry to say.
If Ohio goes to Kerry then Kerry wins. Period. That is a 40 EV swing and the election goes to the communists.
And Kerry's draft lie has energized college students to vote NO for Bush. We can thank the liberal bulwarks of colleges for all of this crap. And I'm a college administrator/faculty member and Bush supporter, but the college kids are clueless on how governemnt works. In fact most try to avoid taking American Government at our institution.
I live in NM & can tell you it is a toss up. Scarry!!!!! Denco
Thanks for the link. Now I'm as confused as I'll ever be. ;)
It was required when I got my degree, but even taking it doesn't mean they will learn how government works. Especially when what you have are professors who use the podium to express 'what's wrong with our government' instead of how it works. Lucky for me, I came out of a private school which required 1 year of government - learning it from it's establishment, and one year of economics in HS.
Just to comfort you a little bit, my cell-phone-only, college-age daughter will
1) Vote for President Bush
2) HOST the campus Republican returns-watching rally
3) Has already passed out 500 Bush stickers and 100 Rally Posters.
|Date||Prob. Bush Win||Mean EVs||Std. Dev.|
These people, normally only interested in sex and partying, have been energized by the frenzied Bush haters and will turn out in force,
Just like they turned out for Dean?
we need an update of tories fabulous chart so we can lose our breaths.
Torie, where are you. And do it the way you originally did with added big priint.
BTW do these things update constantly?
i know many college kids are too lazy to get out there and go to a poll and vote. however most college kids, like myself, send away for absentee ballots. its not too hard to do this and the majority of people on my campus and my friends campuses are voting this way.