Skip to comments.Rove: GOP Leads in FL Absentee + Early Voting
Posted on 11/01/2004 6:38:59 PM PST by NittanyLion
Per Karl Rove on Hannity & Colmes interview, in Florida Republicans lead in absentee ballots while Democrats lead in early voting. Taken together, the GOP holds a lead.
I know there's been much back-and-forth over this issue, and it's hard to know whether this is disinformation or legitimate data.
Possibly. Early voting is such a new creation no one seems to have a good grasp on its impact. I guess we'll know better after tomorrow.
I've heard that before too. However, that doesn't seem right to me, if that is the process. It seems to me that all absentee ballots should be counted regardless of whether it is close or not.
Like Karl would say otherwise at this point. I believe it to be the case, but doubt we would hear otherwise.
I think Bush will do well in Florida. For some reason the Democrats have staked out Ohio as their "Florida" for 2004, but I don't think it's going to work. Ohio is more Republican than Florida is.
Wasn't Rove the guy who predicted a 330+ EV win in 2ooo?
When "they" do the routine polls, they ask if the respondent has already voted or plans to vote early, or has or will vote absentee. If the answer is yes to any of these questions, they release a poll saying so-and-so is leading in the early voting. As unscientific as regular polling is, this is pure BS because there is no real way to gauge the sample that's being taken.
That being said, nearly 2M FL voters have already cast their ballots; given the Dems obsession with this method, they are likely to get the lion's share of the early votes and probably absentee as well. That being said, except for those who had to vote early for personal reasons (jobs, vacation, medical), it just reduces the net number of votes that normally would have been cast on election day. In FL's case, by about 25%. Thus, if the Dems get 75% of the early vote (just to use an easier number), one can expect that anywhere from 1-1.5M fewer Dems will go to the polls tomorrow.
Unfortunately, the real problem with this relatively stupid fad is that it really messes things up when combined with absentee voting, absent minded morons who will forget they already voted, and deliberate fraud. There's a decent chance we will lose FL tomorrow, but if the numbers on election day reflect a Kerry victory by anything greater than, say 2% or so, it is more likely than not that massive fraud is the cause and you will find the fraud in double-voting (once early, then again on election day, and probably a third time as absentee).
One certainly has to consider the source. That said, this is the most detailed explanation I've heard so far. Prior to Rove, I'd only heard folks state that the Dems are leading by 10%, or vice versa. If Rove made up some numbers, it seems like he built in more complexity than he needed.
BS those votes are not counted yet.
Really does make a lot of sense. Plus, conservatives tend to do things they way they always have, hence, they are conservatives. They will get up. go to there polling place and vote like they always have.
Bush wins Florida by 100,000 to 250,000 votes.
There are other methods of estimating the totals, and they are most assuredly being employed. The only question is whether they're accurate, and whether Rove was quoting the numbers has actually has.
The parties poll the early voters and absentee voters just like they do the likely voters. So they probably do have a statistically correct idea of who is leading among absentees and early voters.
It is interesting that Bush didn't bother to stop in Florida today. It seems they are confident. I sure hope Rove knows what he is doing here.
I early voted today. I was quite happy to see alot of Bush voters. I had heard allot of the early voting was angry Kerry supporters. But allot of people in line had bush cheney shirts and others were wearing the blue Bush cheney wristbands.
My parents believe that thousands of Panhandle voters went home and did not vote. They have a friend who was working at a polling place who told them dozens of people who had been standing in line left when the news spread that Florida had been called for Gore.
Voter News Service folded after the 2000 election. My understanding is that there will be no exit polls for this election; instead, the AP has stringers posted at key precincts and election HQ in every state to report the actual vote count as soon as possible, and they have promised not to give any results for Florida to the networks until 8:00 p.m. So I feel pretty good that we won't know anything about Florida until after 8:00. And even that may not be reliable, because the notorious Dade and Palm Beach County precincts usually do not report until the very end.
Methinks you have too tight of a grip on your screen name pal!
Yes. Maybe there's some kind of psychological strategy I'm unaware of, but you'd think (or at least I'm hoping) that if FL was in peril of slipping away, W would spend part of the day there.
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