Mason Dixon State Polls Look Very Good For Bush 10-31-04

Mason-Dixon Polling ^ | 10-31-2004 | Mason-Dixon Polls

[FrankRepublican]

Rush's analysis http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_110104/content/stack_a.guest.html State-by-State Polling Gives Slight Edge to President Bush October 31, 2004 01:18 AM Mason-Dixon Polling and Research had a stellar performance in the 2002 elections missing only 1 poll out of the 23 the firm conducted. Their average error on each candidate was only 1.8%. While past performances hardly guarantee this year’s results, Mason-Dixon has released their latest round (and perhaps their last) list of battleground state polls. They strongly favor the president. Arkansas - Bush, 51-43 (6 EV) Colorado - Bush, 50-43 (9 EV) Florida - Bush, 49-45 (27 EV) Iowa - Bush, 49-44 (7 EV) Ohio - Bush, 48-46 (20 EV) Michigan - Kerry, 47-45 (17 EV) Minnesota - Bush, 48-47 (10 EV) Missouri - Bush, 49-44 (11 EV) Nevada - Bush, 50-44 (5 EV) New Hampshire - Kerry, 47-46 (4 EV) New Mexico - Bush, 49-45 (5 EV) Oregon - Kerry, 50-44 (7 EV) Pennsylvania - Kerry, 48-46 (21 EV) Wisconsin - Kerry, 48-46 (10 EV) West Virginia - Bush, 51-43 (5 EV) This particular polling tally gives 105 Electoral College votes to President Bush and 59 Electoral College votes to Senator Kerry. While this hardly is definitive proof that Senator Kerry is on his way to a defeat in the Electoral College its indeed good news for Bush supporters. Out of these 15 states, John Kerry has captured only one 2000 red state (New Hampshire +4) while George W. Bush has picked up three 2000 blue states (Iowa. Minnesota and New Mexico +22). That’s a net gain of 18 Electoral College votes for President Bush and if all other states would vote the same way they did in 2000, it would give the president a 296-242 Electoral College victory. But this election is unpredictable—so don’t count on it.

[FrankRepublican]

Mason Dixon was amazingly accurate in picking state races in 2002. Statistically there is no way they could be just lucky or semi-talented. The results looks good for Bush. Note these are from the 25 to 29th but it was before the weekend. The weekend polls are not accurate. I think if there would be any shift over the weekend it would be towards Bush because people do not want to take a chance and the terrorism threat is real even though Kerry wants to go back to the 1990s like a child.

[onyx]

We've been waiting for this post!


Over here y'all.

[True Grit]

Thanks for posting this. Much of what has been posted today has been depressing.

[Petronski]

Dated yesterday, I have to ask, is it new?

[Gator113]

Thanks for posting this!!

[1stMarylandRegiment]

Mason-Dixon Polling and Research had a stellar performance in the 2002 elections missing only 1 poll out of the 23 the firm conducted. Their average error on each candidate was only 1.8%. While past performances hardly guarantee this year’s results, Mason-Dixon has released their latest round (and perhaps their last) list of battleground state polls.
They strongly favor the president.
Arkansas - Bush, 51-43 (6 EV)
Colorado - Bush, 50-43 (9 EV)
Florida - Bush, 49-45 (27 EV)
Iowa - Bush, 49-44 (7 EV)
Ohio - Bush, 48-46 (20 EV)
Michigan - Kerry, 47-45 (17 EV)
Minnesota - Bush, 48-47 (10 EV)
Missouri - Bush, 49-44 (11 EV)
Nevada - Bush, 50-44 (5 EV)
New Hampshire - Kerry, 47-46 (4 EV)
New Mexico - Bush, 49-45 (5 EV)
Oregon - Kerry, 50-44 (7 EV)
Pennsylvania - Kerry, 48-46 (21 EV)
Wisconsin - Kerry, 48-46 (10 EV)
West Virginia - Bush, 51-43 (5 EV)
This particular polling tally gives 105 Electoral College votes to President Bush and 59 Electoral College votes to Senator Kerry. While this hardly is definitive proof that Senator Kerry is on his way to a defeat in the Electoral College its indeed good news for Bush supporters. Out of these 15 states, John Kerry has captured only one 2000 red state (New Hampshire +4) while George W. Bush has picked up three 2000 blue states (Iowa. Minnesota and New Mexico +22).
That’s a net gain of 18 Electoral College votes for President Bush and if all other states would vote the same way they did in 2000, it would give the president a 296-242 Electoral College victory.
But this election is unpredictable—so don’t count on it.

[panzer_grey]

It's up to us to *make* those good numbers happen. Get out and vote tommorrow, and take ALL your friends who are going to vote for Bush!

[11th_VA]

Mason Dixon is the Gold Standard - Zogby completely changed his formula this year to account for "illegals carrying cell phones," well not really, just any cell phone user.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

Note these are from the 25 to 29th but it was before the weekend.

But at the height of the missing explosives in Iraq.

[Strategerist]

It had Bush up 4.2% nation wide.

Mason-Dixon doesn't do national polls. You're really, really confused.

[onyx]

I reckon it's their final poll.
Weekends being so unpredictable,
esp with Halloween.

[ConservativeGreek]

This poll got 22 out of 23 State races correct!

[AlGone2001]

"The only good poll is Zogby."

Yeah... right.

Were you tuned in in 2002?

[gobucks]

"Totally wrong. The only good poll is Zogby."

welcome to free republic, newbie of Nov 1 2004

Have you ever heard of the term troll?

[dc-zoo]

Mindless Troll Alert!

reminderman
Since Nov 1, 2004

[Cedric]

G'mornin', troll!

[manic4organic]

Yeah, and I don't remember Bush running in 2002.

[fizziwig]

"Mason-Dixon doesn't do national polls. You're really, really confused"

Give him a break he just signed up today to tell us how accurate Zogby is :) :)

[mplsconservative]

He's probably confused because he just joined FR today and isn't up to speed.

Either that or he's from DU and just trying to spread doom and gloom disinformation.

I mean, what do facts have to do with anything? /sarc

[teletech]

I remember this poll in 2002. It was way off. It had Bush up 4.2% nation wide. Totally wrong. The only good poll is Zogby.

Um, Bush already had the job in 2002.

[Rocko]

Reminderman is now the forgottenman.

[Cedric]

Come back troll. Let's play!

[AlGone2001]

reminderman

Nobody by that name.

[Naplm]

back to the dumpster rat, can someone get him zotted?

[Lib-Lickers 2]

sorry your DU site is down,, did you sign up today to tell us your false statement?,, by the way Harris poll was on the mark not Zogpiss

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Great news, thanks for the ping and the post!!.

[L`enn]

Actually one thing I have not seen noted on here (I am sure it was, but I missed it) was that obviously in 2000 the weekend polling was inaccurate. Most lay the blame for W's 4 pt slide into election day was the DUI, campaigning in Cali, the early call in Florida. I think those reasons were neglible. I still say the "slide" was due to crap polling (he never was ahead 4), that the sheeple thought Gore DID win the debates, the history of undecideds breaking for the incumbent (yes Gore was an incumbent) and the age-old Dem X-factor, voter fraud.
That being said I do think there is room for optimism as the polls from the weekend do not look quite as good as they did at the close of last week. Last Fridays number may be the way tomorrow night ends up. Some of todays polls have so many wierd twists that they only have one cause, inaccuracy.

[Naplm]

must be doom and gloom in DU, they have infested us heavily tonight.

[Cedric]

Sorry, I was reaching-out in love and compassion for our new friend, reminderman.

[dc-zoo]

Great.. that was quick.

[fizziwig]

"Sorry, I was reaching-out in love and compassion for our new friend, reminderman."

That's ok. Remember in a feeding frenzy sometimes the sharks eat each other...:)

[BoBToMatoE]

Mason Dixon and Harris where the most accurate polls in 2000 and 2002. They both have bush up solid. This will allow me to sleep tonight... after a few hours of prayer. :)

[Naplm]

Looking at the internals of the Gallop, there seems no way this election goes anywhere near the current polling numbers out there now. I think the post 911 era has messed up their formula.

If anyone is nervous, look at the internals and try to explain those into a kerry win.

[processing please hold]

I've come across three people who have signed up today.

[Rocko]

Just wait for tomorrow.

[processing please hold]

I'll be on the look-out.

[processing please hold]

What's zotted?

[politicalwit]

"reminderman".... oh, I thought he was "rainman".

[Libertina]

Thanks you for the clear re-post ;)

[CedarDave]

My, my. A relative newbie. Go here for your education on Zotting and to meet the kittens:

http://www.freerepublic.com/~adminmoderator/

[Mase]

Rush said today that internals of most recent (weekend) polls show undecideds breaking big for Bush.

[traderrob6]

Folks i have been watching these polls all day SUSA Strategic Vision Zogby and Raz and now Mason Dixon. In a nutshell "TREND BUSH". Zog is now tied in Fla SUSA +1 MD +4 Strategic Vision +4 Raz +4 =2.6% Ohio is even better Zog +6, SUSA +2 MD +2 SV+2 RAZ +6 =3.6%. Now that is one hechuva lot better position than we thought we were in yesterday at this time. win these two and it's OVA

[1stMarylandRegiment]

Thanks you for the clear re-post ;)

It isn't perfect. I copied the text into MSWord, made it a WebPage, copied it again and assumed at least some of the HTML would copy over to the Comment Box.

When I previewed I got this, but if I tried to add anyting else it got all goobered up again, so I just left it.

Still learning after all these years

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Excellent!

[crz]

I still cant figure out why the heck he went to Kalipornia the last election. And yes I know it might have been to shore up some congressional voting, but in all it was useless to do so. It dang near cost him the job.

[1stMarylandRegiment]

Whoa - something new (to me).

Love the kittens.

[CedarDave]

Did the link to the Viking Kittens video work for you?

[processing please hold]

Thanks, I think I'm in the "MATRIX".