A look back at Gulf War One

CIA-Military ^ | 04/09/1997 | CIA

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http://www.gulflink.osd.mil/declassdocs/cia/19970409/970409_cia_762668_762668_01.html

Iraq now possesses one of the largest chemical weapons inventories in the Middle East and has the production capacity in place to increase its stockpile significantly over the next few years. These capabilities provide Iraq a substantial potential to supply others with chemical warfare agents and technology. We believe, however, that the current regime in Iraq is un-likely to become a supplier, but the potential to do so remains.

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Because the political costs of continued CW use have been so small, we doubt that Iraq will abandon its use of chemical weapons in the foreseeable future. Furthermore, Iraq probably has now made sufficient progress in its chemical weapons program to render it relatively immune to the foreign trade restrictions. US and Western nations' efforts to embargo Western precursor chemicals have not, and probably will not, curtail Iraq's CW progress.

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Iraq intends to continue and, in fact, to expand its CW agent production capability The Iraqis are becoming more sophisti- CATED AND SELF-RELIANT in their CW agent research and production efforts. Iraq probably has now made suffi- cient progress in its chemical weapons program to render it relatively immune to foreign trade restric- tions. US and Western nations' efforts to embargo Western precursor chemicals probably slowed the Iraqi chemical warfare program somewhat and im- posed greater costs, but these efforts have not, and probably will not, curtail its progress. Most produc- tion equipment is in place, Iraq Is using numerous front companies and friendly states to circum- vent tHe Western embargoes on precursor chemicals. Moreover, even if the Western embargoes were effec- tive and IraQ's ability to procure supplies in Western EUROPE WERE ENDED, we believe Iracl would turn to FOR SUPPLIES of all required chemicals

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Iraq: Independent and Sophisticated

Iraq probably now possesses the largest chemical weapons capability in the Middle East and has the capacity to increase its stockpile significantly over the next few years. This has been accomplishED despite Western diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions against acquisition of requisite materials.

Analysis and modeling of Iraq's production facility lead us to estimate that Iraq is currently producing at least 6 tons per day of the blister agent mustard, between 1 and 2 tons per day of the nerve agent tabun, and limited amounts of the nerve agent saRin. In addition, it is researching pro- duction of the nerve agents soman, VG, and VX, AND the psyChochemicals BZ and EA3443.

Iraq's CW production facility is near the town of Samarra, northwest of Baghdad. Over the past year, four new CW agent production facilities were coM- pleted at the SamaRrA complex. These facilities prob- ably are for the production of mustard, tabun, and possibly saRin. However, they could also be used for small-scale production of soman, VX, EA3443, or BZ.

We assess that Iraq is developing the capability to produce indigenously key precursor chemicals and equipment from raw materials that are not uniquely associated with CW. This capability would effectively circumvent any actions--except a total embargo-- designed to constrain the Iraqi CW production pro- gram.

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Note that the link was used for the investigation into Gulf War Illness...but it is very telling about just what kind of a nutcase Saddam was.