Posted on 11/01/2004 9:19:13 PM PST by JingoJim
"Who did you vote for?" Base: All likely voters(1) who have already voted (Approximately 24 percent of all "Likely Voters")
% George W. Bush 50 John Kerry 44 Ralph Nader 1 Michael Badnarik 1 Other * Not sure/Refused 4
Based on combined online and telephone survey data. (1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Note: This base includes ONLY those likely voters who have already voted in this election.
God, I hope this sticks. Kerry is a danger to this Country that we love.
Ok, that's encouraging since the Harris poll, and not Zogby, was the most accurate in 2000.
This has made it easier for me to relax....until I thoght of bus loads of dems showing up with their "hot pics" list to vote for.
a lot of these undecideds won't vote anyway. The trend will likely hold and swing more towards bush as people go for the 'devil they know'.
I find it hard to believe 25% of all votes have voted.
Rove said it best when he answered Rush. They are required to release the names of those who early vote and based on their polls and party, they know who has votes.
W is going to Win this election big time.
So, who is the other 3%? Who's more paranoid about telling a pollster who they voted for? Repubs or Demos?
What strikes me odd about Harris is everytime they have a poll with a signifigant Bush lead they always pull some new kakmaimy way of polling just to satisfy Kerry supporters
Damn That damn Badnarik Hes gonna take away 1%... what a self centered loser !
Good, it is in line with the Scholastic and Weekly Reader Polls.
So far, Newsweeks spread of 6 points is holding. Excellent news. The magic number of 50 is very good. Kerry has always hung between 44-47. He can't get out of this range.
This and As of 12:00 am Trade sports and Iowa elc. markets have bush +4 It's Over except for the Fat Lady (Mrs Edwards?)
Washington allows for voting by mail, so I voted on October 16th.
7 of the 18 states, went for Kerry, including CA. If I had more time, I'd break it down by population and Bush/Gore percentage in 2000, but really can't. I am sure some other freeper will.
Updated October 27, 2004
Introduction
All states offer voters the option of voting prior to the election. In some states, the ballots are returned by mail. This is referred to as absentee voting. Other states permit voters to vote in person at the offices of county clerks or at other satellite voting locations. This is referred to as early voting or in-person absentee voting.
Absentee Voting
Absentee voting is conducted by mail-in paper ballot prior to the day of the election. While all states offer some version of it, there is quite a lot of variation in states’ procedures for absentee voting. For instance, some states offer “no-excuse” absentee voting, allowing any registered voter to vote absentee without requiring that the voter state a reason for his/her desire to vote absentee. Other states permit voters to vote absentee only under a limited set of circumstances.
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Oregon* |
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Vermont |
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* Oregon conducts all elections solely by mail ballot.
Postage: In most states, the voter must put a stamp on the return envelope for the absentee ballot. Just four states pay the return postage for absentee ballots. Those states are Hawaii, Minnesota, Nevada, and West Virginia.
Witness/Notary Signature: Many states require that an absentee ballot be signed by a witness or a notary public. In these states, ballots that are returned without the required signature are not counted.
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* The signature of a witness is required only if the voter was assisted in filling out the absentee ballot.
Receiving and Counting Absentee Ballots: The rules for when absentee ballots must be received, when they are counted, and who counts them also vary from state to state.
If true, then kerry must get almost twice as many votes as Bush tomorrow just to match him in the popular vote.
I'm in NC too. We're getting up at dawn and heading to the polls 1/2 mile from my house. I'm excited for a Bush win.
Oops! Better disregard my stupid post at 17. I should have read the percentages, duh! :-)
Where is the remaining 6%? Did they refuse to answer? If so, they are probably conservatives!
If he gets 0.2% he will be lucky. Out of those 0.2%, 0.199% would stay home rather than vote for Bush. No effect on election.
Trust me, Bush will win in a landslide and it will be an early night.
My liver is highly enthused with this news, Thank You!
Good news, but if anything is ways what I and others have been saying - that the 'Rats are not motivated by Kerry and his base is not energized.
That was really good, Bommer! Thanks!
Good point though! Kerry has to be up 2% on the rest of the 76% to get to be even with Bush. How likely is that?
It's raining here, my wife who has already voted is taking my truck to work tomorrow and her car is in the shop. Poll is 1/2 mile from here..... Looks like old graybeard is gonna get wet.
I was waiting for some Harris poll results. I haven't heard word one from them this cycle.
Thanks for your effort! Take that extra-size umbrella.
Yes BUT this poll left out a large segment of Kerry supporters. Namely the young dead ones that only use cellphones speak no english and cannot read and are to stupid to find the polling place.
;-)
"It's raining here, my wife who has already voted is taking my truck to work tomorrow and her car is in the shop. Poll is 1/2 mile from here..... Looks like old graybeard is gonna get wet."
A lot of guys got cold and wet at Valley Forge to buy us this chance.
Go Graybeard!
If you will trek 1/2 mile in the rain to vote, you qualify as a great 'broken glass Republican'. Bless you for making that effort.
If they've already voted, I'd consider them more than "likely" voters.
Just drag every R you can find to the polls. No excuses.
That would be extremely likely.
They ALREADY VOTED and there's STILL 4% undecided?
Those undecideds are really going to be depressed when they wake up Wednesday morning and find out absolutely nobody cares what they think anymore.
The Harris Poll closest in 2000 to getting it right, within something like 1.2%. Does anyone have the latest Harris Poll of the battleground states?
We have early voting in TX and I heard today they think almost half have already voted.
I find it hard to believe 25% of all votes have voted. "
Let me tell you about my precinct, here in central Texas, since I am a precinct chair and got the early voting #s to make GOTV calls for the election ...
1050 early voters ... OUT OF 1700 REGISTERED VOTERS.
That's right, over 50% turnout, for early voting alone!!
We have 312 early voters who were GOP primary voters ...
176 of GOP primary voters did NOT vote ... do the math:
64% turnout of the GOP "base".
EVERY Republican I talked to voted early.
The Democrats ALSO turned out... not as high but close
(250 an about 140 more yet to vote).
In Texas elections, *normally* about 1/3rd of the votes are early votes... it must be higher this time.
Now as for the "25% of votes" depends on how many states have early voting... I dont have the answers there ... although a simple question would be: How many total votes have been cast in early voting?
Remember folks, it is the Electoral College and state by state that will matter.
They aren't undecided, they are decidedly private. Pollster asked who they voted for. The reply: Go ^%*&&% yourself. :-}
That's true about the undecideds, and Zogby has put all the undecideds in Kerry's corner - Brit Hume's gang was stunned to find that out and said that even historically there is no precedent for doing that. Even at best - they break about even, and then not all of them vote.
That was GREAT!!
Teresa?
No, Tarayzuhhhhhhhh!
Precincts Reporting: 0.00%
Office Candidate Party Votes % Of Votes
President/Vice President
Bush, George W. Republican 800,950 49.87%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 788,799 49.12%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 5,956 0.37%
Parker, John T.-WI 2,836 0.18%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 2,428 0.15%
Badnarik, Michael 1,706 0.11%
Harris, James -WI 869 0.05%
Schriner, Joe -WI 838 0.05%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 817 0.05%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 817 0.05%
Total Votes 1,606,016
This was just published on the OH Sec of Stae Web Site. This is includingearly voting. Lets kick some Ass!
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