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Harris Poll Internal - 24% of LIKELY VOTERS have voted! BUSH AHEAD 50-44!!!!
Harris Interactive ^ | 11/1 | Harris Interactive (TELEPHONE survey)

Posted on 11/01/2004 9:19:13 PM PST by JingoJim

"Who did you vote for?" Base: All likely voters(1) who have already voted (Approximately 24 percent of all "Likely Voters")

% George W. Bush 50 John Kerry 44 Ralph Nader 1 Michael Badnarik 1 Other * Not sure/Refused 4

Based on combined online and telephone survey data. (1) Likely Voters: Adults who are registered to vote and say they are "absolutely certain" to vote. Note: This base includes ONLY those likely voters who have already voted in this election.


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: earlyvote; gwb2004; harrispolls; kewl; polls
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I think this outstanding news despite coming from Harris.
1 posted on 11/01/2004 9:19:13 PM PST by JingoJim
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To: JingoJim

God, I hope this sticks. Kerry is a danger to this Country that we love.


2 posted on 11/01/2004 9:20:15 PM PST by faithincowboys
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To: JingoJim

Ok, that's encouraging since the Harris poll, and not Zogby, was the most accurate in 2000.


3 posted on 11/01/2004 9:20:24 PM PST by Brett66 (Dan Rather, the most busted man in America.)
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To: JingoJim

This has made it easier for me to relax....until I thoght of bus loads of dems showing up with their "hot pics" list to vote for.


4 posted on 11/01/2004 9:20:53 PM PST by Recovering Ex-hippie (Freedom isn't free.)
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To: JingoJim

a lot of these undecideds won't vote anyway. The trend will likely hold and swing more towards bush as people go for the 'devil they know'.


5 posted on 11/01/2004 9:21:16 PM PST by flashbunny (Every thought that enters my head requires its own vanity thread.)
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To: JingoJim

I find it hard to believe 25% of all votes have voted.

Rove said it best when he answered Rush. They are required to release the names of those who early vote and based on their polls and party, they know who has votes.

W is going to Win this election big time.


6 posted on 11/01/2004 9:21:17 PM PST by Joe_October (Saddam supported Terrorists. Al Qaeda are Terrorists. I can't find the link.)
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To: JingoJim

So, who is the other 3%? Who's more paranoid about telling a pollster who they voted for? Repubs or Demos?


7 posted on 11/01/2004 9:21:41 PM PST by Paraclete
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To: JingoJim
Nice! Enjoy my new film!

'W'

(located at http://pages.sbcglobal.net/bommer/W.html)
8 posted on 11/01/2004 9:21:50 PM PST by Bommer ( Bush met the First Lady at a BBQ? That's Love brotha!" - stainlessbanner)
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To: JingoJim

What strikes me odd about Harris is everytime they have a poll with a signifigant Bush lead they always pull some new kakmaimy way of polling just to satisfy Kerry supporters


9 posted on 11/01/2004 9:22:02 PM PST by slowhand520
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To: JingoJim

Damn That damn Badnarik Hes gonna take away 1%... what a self centered loser !


10 posted on 11/01/2004 9:22:24 PM PST by Freesofar ( vote for one----Our Troops (Bush)-- or ---Al Qaeda( Kerry))
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To: JingoJim

Good, it is in line with the Scholastic and Weekly Reader Polls.


11 posted on 11/01/2004 9:23:39 PM PST by Porterville (If you see a stinkin' commie in the snow covered hill, a landslide will take it down)
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To: JingoJim

So far, Newsweeks spread of 6 points is holding. Excellent news. The magic number of 50 is very good. Kerry has always hung between 44-47. He can't get out of this range.


12 posted on 11/01/2004 9:23:47 PM PST by conservativepoet
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To: Joe_October
Yeah, that many states even have early voting? Here in NC, it's available, but only at a few places in each county... and universally, the wait times were 2+ hours.
13 posted on 11/01/2004 9:23:54 PM PST by alancarp (When does it cease to be "Freedom of the Press" and become outright SEDITION?)
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To: JingoJim

This and As of 12:00 am Trade sports and Iowa elc. markets have bush +4 It's Over except for the Fat Lady (Mrs Edwards?)


14 posted on 11/01/2004 9:25:36 PM PST by underbyte
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To: alancarp

Washington allows for voting by mail, so I voted on October 16th.


15 posted on 11/01/2004 9:26:01 PM PST by Clemenza (AKA The Avenging Disco Godfather)
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To: JingoJim
Here are the early voting states:

7 of the 18 states, went for Kerry, including CA. If I had more time, I'd break it down by population and Bush/Gore percentage in 2000, but really can't. I am sure some other freeper will.

Absentee and Early Voting

Updated October 27, 2004

Introduction
All states offer voters the option of voting prior to the election.  In some states, the ballots are returned by mail.  This is referred to as absentee voting.  Other states permit voters to vote in person at the offices of county clerks or at other satellite voting locations.  This is referred to as early voting or in-person absentee voting.

Absentee Voting
Absentee voting is conducted by mail-in paper ballot prior to the day of the election.  While all states offer some version of it, there is quite a lot of variation in states’ procedures for absentee voting.  For instance, some states offer “no-excuse” absentee voting, allowing any registered voter to vote absentee without requiring that the voter state a reason for his/her desire to vote absentee.  Other states permit voters to vote absentee only under a limited set of circumstances.

   

No-Excuse Absentee Voting

The following states permit any registered voter to vote by absentee ballot.  Voters are not required to state their reason or excuse for voting by absentee ballot.

Alaska

Nevada

Arizona

New Mexico

California

North Carolina

Colorado

North Dakota

Florida

Oklahoma

Hawaii

Oregon*

Idaho

South Dakota

Indiana

Utah

Iowa

Vermont

Kansas

Washington

Maine

West Virginia

Montana

Wisconsin

Nebraska

Wyoming

 

* Oregon conducts all elections solely by mail ballot.

Postage:  In most states, the voter must put a stamp on the return envelope for the absentee ballot.  Just four states pay the return postage for absentee ballots.  Those states are Hawaii, Minnesota, Nevada, and West Virginia.

Witness/Notary Signature:  Many states require that an absentee ballot be signed by a witness or a notary public.  In these states, ballots that are returned without the required signature are not counted. 

   

Witness/Notary Signature

Required

Not Required

Alabama

Arizona

Alaska

Arkansas

Delaware

California

Florida

Colorado

Georgia*

Connecticut

Hawaii*

District of Columbia

Louisiana

Idaho

Maine

Illinois

Michigan*

Indiana

Minnesota

Iowa

Mississippi

Kansas

Missouri

Kentucky

Nebraska

Maryland

New Jersey

Massachusetts

New York*

Montana

North Carolina

Nevada

North Dakota

New Hampshire

Oklahoma

New Mexico

Pennsylvania*

Ohio

Rhode Island

Oregon

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee*

Vermont

Texas

Washington

Utah*

West Virginia

Virginia

Wyoming

Wisconsin

 


*    The signature of a witness is required only if the voter was assisted in filling out the absentee ballot.

Receiving and Counting Absentee Ballots:  The rules for when absentee ballots must be received, when they are counted, and who counts them also vary from state to state.

16 posted on 11/01/2004 9:26:11 PM PST by GAGOPSWEEPTOVICTORY
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To: JingoJim

If true, then kerry must get almost twice as many votes as Bush tomorrow just to match him in the popular vote.


17 posted on 11/01/2004 9:26:15 PM PST by Bonaparte (twisting slowly, slowly in the wind...)
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To: alancarp

I'm in NC too. We're getting up at dawn and heading to the polls 1/2 mile from my house. I'm excited for a Bush win.


18 posted on 11/01/2004 9:26:36 PM PST by conservativepoet
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To: JingoJim

Oops! Better disregard my stupid post at 17. I should have read the percentages, duh! :-)


19 posted on 11/01/2004 9:27:18 PM PST by Bonaparte (twisting slowly, slowly in the wind...)
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To: All

Where is the remaining 6%? Did they refuse to answer? If so, they are probably conservatives!


20 posted on 11/01/2004 9:28:44 PM PST by nowheretohide
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To: Freesofar
Damn That damn Badnarik Hes gonna take away 1%... what a self centered loser !

If he gets 0.2% he will be lucky. Out of those 0.2%, 0.199% would stay home rather than vote for Bush. No effect on election.

21 posted on 11/01/2004 9:29:30 PM PST by WildTurkey
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To: Recovering Ex-hippie

Trust me, Bush will win in a landslide and it will be an early night.


22 posted on 11/01/2004 9:30:10 PM PST by truthandlife (http://www.neverforgetneveragain.com -- If you want Bush re-elected pass on this video link!!!!)
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To: JingoJim

My liver is highly enthused with this news, Thank You!


23 posted on 11/01/2004 9:30:11 PM PST by txhurl (Omitting sarcasm tags gets me in lots of trouble)
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To: JingoJim

Good news, but if anything is ways what I and others have been saying - that the 'Rats are not motivated by Kerry and his base is not energized.


24 posted on 11/01/2004 9:30:20 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (God is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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To: Bommer

That was really good, Bommer! Thanks!


25 posted on 11/01/2004 9:32:06 PM PST by Just Lori (Wake up already!)
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To: JingoJim
If I was a Kerry supported I would be freaking out over this.
26 posted on 11/01/2004 9:32:35 PM PST by DestroytheDemocrats
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To: Bonaparte

Good point though! Kerry has to be up 2% on the rest of the 76% to get to be even with Bush. How likely is that?


27 posted on 11/01/2004 9:32:47 PM PST by JingoJim
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To: JingoJim

THE HORSE IS IN THE BARN! FEED IS IN THE TROUGH!!

28 posted on 11/01/2004 9:33:53 PM PST by yellowhammer
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To: conservativepoet
We're getting up at dawn and heading to the polls 1/2 mile from my house

It's raining here, my wife who has already voted is taking my truck to work tomorrow and her car is in the shop. Poll is 1/2 mile from here..... Looks like old graybeard is gonna get wet.

29 posted on 11/01/2004 9:34:41 PM PST by Graybeard58
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To: JingoJim

I was waiting for some Harris poll results. I haven't heard word one from them this cycle.


30 posted on 11/01/2004 9:35:40 PM PST by MHT
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To: Graybeard58

Thanks for your effort! Take that extra-size umbrella.


31 posted on 11/01/2004 9:36:45 PM PST by conservativepoet
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To: JingoJim

Yes BUT this poll left out a large segment of Kerry supporters. Namely the young dead ones that only use cellphones speak no english and cannot read and are to stupid to find the polling place.

;-)


32 posted on 11/01/2004 9:37:52 PM PST by festus (All Your Electoral Votes Are Belong To Us !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
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To: Graybeard58

"It's raining here, my wife who has already voted is taking my truck to work tomorrow and her car is in the shop. Poll is 1/2 mile from here..... Looks like old graybeard is gonna get wet."

A lot of guys got cold and wet at Valley Forge to buy us this chance.

Go Graybeard!



33 posted on 11/01/2004 9:38:00 PM PST by Panzerlied ("We shall never surrender!")
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To: Graybeard58

If you will trek 1/2 mile in the rain to vote, you qualify as a great 'broken glass Republican'. Bless you for making that effort.


34 posted on 11/01/2004 9:38:53 PM PST by plushaye (President Bush - Four more years! Thanks Swifties and POWs for Truth.)
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To: JingoJim

If they've already voted, I'd consider them more than "likely" voters.


35 posted on 11/01/2004 9:38:54 PM PST by thoughtomator ("!Allahu Snackbar" - the war cry of the pajamadeen - Let's stop VOTE FRAUD NOW! Write your reps!)
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To: JingoJim

Just drag every R you can find to the polls. No excuses.


36 posted on 11/01/2004 9:39:01 PM PST by snooker (Bush 2004 --- stay with the strong horse)
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To: thoughtomator
If they've already voted, I'd consider them more than "likely" voters.

That would be extremely likely.

37 posted on 11/01/2004 9:40:06 PM PST by Graybeard58
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To: JingoJim

They ALREADY VOTED and there's STILL 4% undecided?

Those undecideds are really going to be depressed when they wake up Wednesday morning and find out absolutely nobody cares what they think anymore.


38 posted on 11/01/2004 9:42:07 PM PST by Question Liberal Authority (How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for the Kerry campaign?)
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Comment #39 Removed by Moderator

To: JingoJim

The Harris Poll closest in 2000 to getting it right, within something like 1.2%. Does anyone have the latest Harris Poll of the battleground states?


40 posted on 11/01/2004 9:47:00 PM PST by nightowl
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To: JingoJim

MSNBC already talking about a hypothetical Kerry loss and the aftermath.

41 posted on 11/01/2004 9:48:47 PM PST by yellowhammer
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To: alancarp

We have early voting in TX and I heard today they think almost half have already voted.


42 posted on 11/01/2004 9:48:53 PM PST by Hattie
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To: Joe_October

I find it hard to believe 25% of all votes have voted. "

Let me tell you about my precinct, here in central Texas, since I am a precinct chair and got the early voting #s to make GOTV calls for the election ...

1050 early voters ... OUT OF 1700 REGISTERED VOTERS.
That's right, over 50% turnout, for early voting alone!!

We have 312 early voters who were GOP primary voters ...
176 of GOP primary voters did NOT vote ... do the math:
64% turnout of the GOP "base".

EVERY Republican I talked to voted early.

The Democrats ALSO turned out... not as high but close
(250 an about 140 more yet to vote).


In Texas elections, *normally* about 1/3rd of the votes are early votes... it must be higher this time.

Now as for the "25% of votes" depends on how many states have early voting... I dont have the answers there ... although a simple question would be: How many total votes have been cast in early voting?


43 posted on 11/01/2004 9:50:00 PM PST by WOSG (George W Bush / Dick Cheney - Right for our Times!)
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To: JingoJim

Remember folks, it is the Electoral College and state by state that will matter.


44 posted on 11/01/2004 9:50:11 PM PST by stopillegalimmigration
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To: Question Liberal Authority

They aren't undecided, they are decidedly private. Pollster asked who they voted for. The reply: Go ^%*&&% yourself. :-}


45 posted on 11/01/2004 9:50:24 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: flashbunny

That's true about the undecideds, and Zogby has put all the undecideds in Kerry's corner - Brit Hume's gang was stunned to find that out and said that even historically there is no precedent for doing that. Even at best - they break about even, and then not all of them vote.


46 posted on 11/01/2004 9:50:56 PM PST by CyberAnt (Election 2004: This election is for the SOUL OF AMERICA)
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To: Bommer

That was GREAT!!


47 posted on 11/01/2004 9:51:08 PM PST by LUV W (WE WILL NOT WAVER; WE WILL NOT TIRE; WE WILL NOT FALTER; AND WE WILL NOT FAIL!!! RE-ELECT GWB!!!)
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To: jwalsh07
Pollster asked who they voted for. The reply: Go ^%*&&% yourself.

Teresa?

48 posted on 11/01/2004 9:51:57 PM PST by Question Liberal Authority (How do you ask a goose to be the last goose to die for the Kerry campaign?)
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To: Question Liberal Authority

No, Tarayzuhhhhhhhh!


49 posted on 11/01/2004 9:52:56 PM PST by jwalsh07
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To: JingoJim



Precincts Reporting: 0.00%
Office Candidate Party Votes % Of Votes
President/Vice President
Bush, George W. Republican 800,950 49.87%
Kerry, John F. Democratic 788,799 49.12%
Peroutka, Michael Anthony 5,956 0.37%
Parker, John T.-WI 2,836 0.18%
Zych, Thomas F.-WI 2,428 0.15%
Badnarik, Michael 1,706 0.11%
Harris, James -WI 869 0.05%
Schriner, Joe -WI 838 0.05%
Duncan, Richard A.-WI 817 0.05%
Cobb, David Keith-WI 817 0.05%
Total Votes 1,606,016


This was just published on the OH Sec of Stae Web Site. This is includingearly voting. Lets kick some Ass!


50 posted on 11/01/2004 9:53:22 PM PST by eddiebear
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