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Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)
Zogby.com ^ | 11/2/04

Posted on 11/02/2004 2:23:29 PM PST by Cableguy

Released: November 02, 2004
Our Call
Zogby International's 2004 Predictions
(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)

2004 Presidential Election


Electoral Votes:

Bush

213

Kerry

311

To Close To Call

Nevada (5)

To Close To Call

Colorado (9)


Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%

The telephone poll of 955 likely voters was conducted (November 1-2, 2004). The MOE is +/- 3.2


Here's how we got there...

2004: Repeat of 2000 Figures:
George Bush (Electoral Vote)
UT
5
KS
6
WY
3
MS
6
ID
4
SC
8
AK
3
IN
11
NE
5
KY
8
ND
3
AL
9
MT
3
GA
15
SD
3
LA
9
OK
7
TX
34
John Kerry (Electoral Vote)
ME
4
MD
10
VT
3
CT
7
IL
21
HI
4
RI
4
NY
31
DE
3
MA
12
NJ
15
DC
3
CA
55


Red State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
142
Blue State Totals (Using Current 2004 Electoral Vote Numbers):
172

2004 Battleground States:


2000

2004
Our Call

Bush Electoral Votes

Kerry Electoral Votes


%Margin

%Margin

Arizona (10)*

Bush + 6.28%

Bush 6%

10

-

Arkansas (6)*

Bush + 5.44%

Bush 3%

6

-

Colorado (9)

Bush + 8.36%

To Close To Call

-

-

Florida (27)

Bush + 0.01%

Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry

-

27

Iowa (7)

Gore + 0.31%

Kerry 5%

-

7

Michigan (17)

Gore + 5.13%

Kerry 6%

-

17

Minnesota (10)

Gore + 2.4%

Kerry 6%

-

10

Missouri (11)*

Bush + 3.34%

Bush 3%

11

-

Nevada (5)

Bush + 3.55%

To Close To Call

-

-

New Hampshire (4) * 

Bush + 1.27%

Kerry 5%

-

4

New Mexico (5)

Gore + 0.06%

Kerry 3%

-

5

North Carolina (15)*

Bush + 12.83%

Bush 3%

15

-

Oregon (7)*

Gore + 0.44%

Kerry 10%

-

7

Ohio (20)

Bush + 3.51%

Bush 2%
Trending Kerry

-

20

Pennsylvania (21)

Gore + 4.17%

Trending Kerry

-

21

Tennessee (11)*

Bush + 3.86%

Bush 4%

11

-

Virginia (13)*
Bush + 7.00%
Bush
13
-

Washington (11)*

Gore + 5.58%

Kerry 11%

-

11

West Virginia (5)*

Bush + 6.32%

Bush 4%

5

-

Wisconsin (10)

Gore + 0.22%

Kerry 6%

-

10

Battleground State Totals
71
139
Current Grand Total:
213
311

* States denoted with an asterisk were polled online in Zogby Interactive surveys.(as of Nov. 2, 2004 5:00pm)



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004finalpolls; cookedthebooks; finalzogbypolls; howtostealanelection; polls; predictions; zogby; zogby2004; zogbyism; zogbysspecialsauce
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I am posting this for fun. So don't take it out on me.
1 posted on 11/02/2004 2:23:29 PM PST by Cableguy
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To: Cableguy

FL 0.1% Kerry? ZOGBY must have scored some good weed.


2 posted on 11/02/2004 2:24:48 PM PST by A Balrog of Morgoth (With fire, sword, and stinging whip I drive the Rats in terror before me.)
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To: Cableguy

Maybe tomorrow morning he can release his final, final, final polling results.


3 posted on 11/02/2004 2:24:51 PM PST by Rodney King (No, we can't all just get along)
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To: Cableguy

I would like to point out to everybody that we are making EXACTLY the same mistake we made 4 years ago as per florida. The panhandle(conservative) votes one hour later... so its NORMAL that the dem would be ahead in early exit polling. This is the same exact thing that happened in 2000!!!


4 posted on 11/02/2004 2:25:11 PM PST by Betaille (Harry Potter is a Right-Winger)
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To: Cableguy

Good Lord. This is about the third "FINAL" Zogby poll I have seen since yesterday.


5 posted on 11/02/2004 2:25:16 PM PST by Elpasser
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To: Cableguy

Zogby's an idiot.


6 posted on 11/02/2004 2:25:16 PM PST by WinOne4TheGipper (Click my profile page to see my US Election Atlas Presidential Prediction Map!)
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To: A Balrog of Morgoth

#1 I'd like some of what Zogby is smoking.

#2 At least this time, when he is WAAAY off, we won't have to listen to the soundbyte how he was "the closest pollster" for 4 more years.


7 posted on 11/02/2004 2:30:14 PM PST by FreedomNeocon
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To: Elpasser

THE EXIT POLL NUMBERS DO NOT INCLUDE EARLY VOTING, WHICH IN MOST BATTLEGROUND STATES FAVORED BUSH! THIS PUTS THINGS IN CONTEXT.


8 posted on 11/02/2004 2:30:26 PM PST by laconic
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To: Cableguy

NOTICE THAT HE'S GIVING OHIO TO KERRY WITH A 2% BUSH LEAD.


9 posted on 11/02/2004 2:30:44 PM PST by GLDNGUN (.)
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To: GLDNGUN

yeah - I LOVED that one! He's lost it!


10 posted on 11/02/2004 2:31:08 PM PST by Kylie_04
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To: Cableguy

11 posted on 11/02/2004 2:31:28 PM PST by Samwise (This day we fight! For all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!)
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Cableguy

tagging for a good laugh tomorrow.


13 posted on 11/02/2004 2:31:45 PM PST by FD_Pilot
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To: laconic

I just want to announce that tomotrrow morning I will be releasing my final state by state numbers.

Can I be John Zogby?


14 posted on 11/02/2004 2:31:51 PM PST by montereyp1
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To: Cableguy

I'm so sick of polls and especially Zogby. If Kerry wins, and I still don't think he will, it will not be with 311 EV.


15 posted on 11/02/2004 2:31:57 PM PST by xuberalles
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To: Cableguy

Somebody must have punched the Egg Zog.


16 posted on 11/02/2004 2:31:59 PM PST by Freepdonia (Victory is Ours!)
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To: GLDNGUN

The Dems couldn't count on the MSM to get their propaganda out after the 2000 fiasco. Voila! Psy-ops conducted over the internet without accountability.


17 posted on 11/02/2004 2:32:00 PM PST by Steve_Stifler
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To: Cableguy

Florida (27)

Bush + 0.01%

Kerry .1%
Trending Kerry

-

27

 

Ohio (20)

Bush + 3.51%

Bush 2%
Trending Kerry

-

20

So much for objectivity...

18 posted on 11/02/2004 2:32:02 PM PST by Cableguy (Bush wins 53/47)
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To: Cableguy

http://www.alternet.org/election04/20385/


19 posted on 11/02/2004 2:32:03 PM PST by The_Republican
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To: Cableguy

Zogby=Arab......what else do ya need to know?


20 posted on 11/02/2004 2:32:07 PM PST by Oldsailor
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To: GLDNGUN

And doing the same thing in FL? Hugh Hewitt's been hearing a different picture with Catholics and Hispanics coming out for Bush. Either Zogby or Hugh is right. I'll take Hugh.


21 posted on 11/02/2004 2:32:26 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: Cableguy

I don't like this at all. We need to GOTV in FL and PENN in the last hour.


22 posted on 11/02/2004 2:32:40 PM PST by truthandlife (http://www.neverforgetneveragain.com -- If you want Bush re-elected pass on this video link!!!!)
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To: GLDNGUN

Duh, that makes good sense, duh! :-)


23 posted on 11/02/2004 2:33:06 PM PST by Freepdonia (Victory is Ours!)
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To: Cableguy
Colorado too close to call??? Zog's been drinking his special sauce.
24 posted on 11/02/2004 2:33:08 PM PST by colorado tanker ("medals, ribbons, we threw away the symbols of what our country gave us and I'm proud of that")
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Comment #25 Removed by Moderator

To: Cableguy

I noticed he gave Virginia to Bush...but did NOT list by what percent.

Probably a big percent, and since Zogby earlier said VA was a tossup he's hiding it. doesn't want to evidence his own wild variables.


26 posted on 11/02/2004 2:33:38 PM PST by Shermy
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To: laconic

Zog must really want to totally discredit himself for ever.


27 posted on 11/02/2004 2:33:48 PM PST by Godzilla (We meet at dawn tomorrow.)
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To: Cableguy

Zog is all over the place today.


28 posted on 11/02/2004 2:33:49 PM PST by dalebert
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To: goldstategop

I voted for John Zogby before I voted against him.

John Fraud Kerry


29 posted on 11/02/2004 2:34:03 PM PST by mmyers
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To: Cableguy
The GOP has received information suggesting that the Media, headed up by CBS, is trying to create a scenario which would allow them to declare Kerry the winner, based upon exit polling alone!! They are hoping that negative news will discourage the large AFTER WORK GOP turnout from occurring. They want a day of bad news to keep us from going to the evening polls.

GOP internals suggest numbers as strong as I mentioned this morning, but the media is not reporting those. Were it any other day, the Media would be ignoring Drudge, but they are feeding him these heavily weighted exit polls which favor Kerry, while completely ignoring any evidence to the contrary.

This is not an accident.

The Media is trying to create the conditions for Kerry to claim victory, then fight in court any conflicting numbers. WE MUST IGNORE EXIT POLLING AND GET OUT THERE AND VOTE, PEOPLE.

30 posted on 11/02/2004 2:34:15 PM PST by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: Cableguy
So much for objectivity...

If he's right except for Florida and Ohio, and we take Colo...269-269.

31 posted on 11/02/2004 2:34:45 PM PST by GLDNGUN (.)
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To: Betaille

They've been voting in the panhandle all day.


32 posted on 11/02/2004 2:34:48 PM PST by rushmom
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To: Cableguy

Yeah, right - Bush wins the popular and loses the EV - another Zogby wet dream......


33 posted on 11/02/2004 2:35:21 PM PST by Intolerant in NJ
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To: Cableguy

Take heart Fellow Freepers...even if the unthinkable occurs I see a silver lining in a Bush defeat. Remember when Clinton was elected? Two years later a complete turnover of both the House and Senate occurred. I predict a repudiation two years down the road similiar to what (former California) Gov. Gray Davis experienced for "President Kerry" should he be elected!


34 posted on 11/02/2004 2:35:35 PM PST by meandog ("Do unto others before they do unto you!")
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To: Cableguy
Zogby will still be getting this election wrong NEXT week. His polling is apparently done by Salvador Dali.
35 posted on 11/02/2004 2:35:41 PM PST by atomicpossum (If there are two Americas, John Edwards isn't qualified to lead either of them.)
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To: Cableguy
Boy I hope Zogby is wrong :-(
36 posted on 11/02/2004 2:35:44 PM PST by Sprite518
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To: Cableguy
Zogby is smoking hashish!
37 posted on 11/02/2004 2:35:55 PM PST by nopardons
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To: GLDNGUN

And there goes Zogby's reputation as a pollster, good riddance.


38 posted on 11/02/2004 2:36:00 PM PST by BladeLWS
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To: Cableguy
Well, if he's right, then everyone else is wrong...

I mean, how can you give Wisconsin, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Colorado, Florida, New Mexico ALL to Kerry, unless you're sniffing your own pixie dust...
39 posted on 11/02/2004 2:36:03 PM PST by Acrobat (Gregoire, Murray, Cantwell, Ross: sounds like the Trotsky bunch put on trial in the USSR in the '20s)
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To: Cableguy

So Kerry gets ALL of the BG states of note??
IA, OH, FL, PN, WI, NM....
Give me a break!!!!!!!!!


40 posted on 11/02/2004 2:36:31 PM PST by GivemeaBREAK!
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To: FreedomNeocon

"#1 I'd like some of what Zogby is smoking."

Its the same stuff that Baghdad Bob was smoking in the last days of Baghdad. Really great stuff if you like unreality.


41 posted on 11/02/2004 2:37:13 PM PST by fizziwig
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To: The_Republican
You post from a Democrat website?

What a friggin' joke!

42 posted on 11/02/2004 2:37:26 PM PST by sinkspur ("It is a great day to be alive. I appreciate your gratitude." God Himself.)
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To: Sprite518

Even if he's a little bit wrong....we lose. I can't believe all the polls showing Bush ahead could be so wrong....


43 posted on 11/02/2004 2:37:30 PM PST by Jrabbit
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To: Pukin Dog

I'm worried about Tradesports.com - it indicates Bush's numbers have crashed hard lately.


44 posted on 11/02/2004 2:37:38 PM PST by GOP_Party_Animal
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To: Cableguy

You know, I don't suppose Zogby will be out of a drop after Bush wins big, but it is comforting to know that he will be relagated to the part of the MSM that doesn't matter...ie CBS, NY Times...etc.


45 posted on 11/02/2004 2:37:54 PM PST by FrankOwens
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To: Cableguy

On the news show, the peaceful news show, the pollster sleeps tonight.
On the news show, the peaceful news show, the pollster sleeps tonight.

Wee-ooh wim-o-weh. Wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh
o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-weh.
Wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh
o-wim-o-weh o-wim-o-weh o-wim-weh.

Hush, my darling, don't puke, my darling, the pollster sleeps tonight.
Hush, my darling, don't puke, my darling, the pollster sleeps tonight.

Whuh whuh whuh wim-o-weh. Wee-ooh wim-o-weh wee-ooh
wim-o-weh wee-ooh wim-o-weh.


46 posted on 11/02/2004 2:38:45 PM PST by mrsmith ("Oyez, oyez! All rise for the Honorable Chief Justice... Hillary Rodham Clinton ")
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To: meandog

I'm not concerned with the political ramifications so much as the victory this would be for the Islamic terrorists.


47 posted on 11/02/2004 2:38:48 PM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: Cableguy

I would like to point out that exit polls do not include absentee and early voting. It was reported that Bush was up by 125,000 votes going into today!


48 posted on 11/02/2004 2:38:52 PM PST by kara37
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To: Jrabbit

Zogby is so unworthy--he's been all over the place for the past two days. That's not "polling"--that's "following the bouncing ball"!


49 posted on 11/02/2004 2:39:46 PM PST by MHT
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To: sinkspur

How come investors are not laughing?


50 posted on 11/02/2004 2:40:00 PM PST by The_Republican
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