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OH Update: Jay Cost (This Should Just About Do It)
Jay Cost | 11/2/04 | Jay Cost

Posted on 11/02/2004 8:58:59 PM PST by LS

Bush nets 20,000 votes in Butler County, Cincinnati Suburb.

Bush nets 856 in NE Wayne County. Bush still up 1.7% in NE Ohio...waiting on more Cuyahoga.

Bush nets 1990 in Marion County, West Central

West Ohio...Bush nets 2,900 votes in Darke County.

Central Ohio...reports my Hawkeye, [JAY MEANS "BUCKEYE"] "Good news for Bush. Bush up significantly in the following counties: Clark +5 (big county) Greene +3 (big county) Ross +2.6 (med county) Down BIGTIME in Coshocton (9% down) but it's a really SMALL county. All of the other 16 counties in my group, Bush is doing better by about 1-3%. But these are smaller counties (but every vote counts). Maybe down by a fraction of a point in a couple small counties."

Bush holding his own in Dayton and Columbus, reports another Hawkeye [BUCKEYE]: "Bush's percentage increase is about 1%. With 60% in Franklin (Columbus), Bush is ahead 50-49.5 -- he lost it 48-47 in 2000. With 73% in Montgomery (Dayton), Kerry is ahead 50-49 -- in 2000, Gore won it by 50-48."


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Ohio
KEYWORDS: bush; election2004; kerry; napalminthemorning; ohio
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Bush winning Dayton is pretty much it. Kerry had to get win by 10,000 minimum in Dayton even to have a chance. This one's over, folks. Here's the link.

http://jaycost.blogspot.com/

1 posted on 11/02/2004 8:59:00 PM PST by LS
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Comment #2 Removed by Moderator

To: LS

LS.. fingers crossed.


3 posted on 11/02/2004 9:00:45 PM PST by Dog (Pray for President Bush!)
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Could you go and panic on only one thread?


4 posted on 11/02/2004 9:01:17 PM PST by Pitiricus
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To: LS

Dayton is tough for Kerry to win by a huge margin with Wright Patterson Air Force Base in Dayton ...


5 posted on 11/02/2004 9:01:38 PM PST by dartuser (Regarding Putin ... It only takes one moment of truth for an unbeliever to become an evangelist.)
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE; Admin Moderator

You are spamming every thread with that comment...... stop the doom and gloom.


6 posted on 11/02/2004 9:01:44 PM PST by Dog (Pray for President Bush!)
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

You nedd to chill out dear...you are spamming threads with fear and loathing.


7 posted on 11/02/2004 9:01:50 PM PST by wardaddy (The only thing we share with collectivists and ragheads is death.)
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To: LS

Hope you're right. I'll feel a lot better when more of the vote is counted and it shows Bush with still a solid lead. When is Fox going to give Flordia to Bush?!


8 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:08 PM PST by mainepatsfan
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Calm- Wisconsin back to Bush!


9 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:20 PM PST by wmomof4
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

You post that on every thread. Have a drink, have a few drinks and relax. Bush will win, count on it. BTW, welcome to freerepublic!


10 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:25 PM PST by fizziwig
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: Pitiricus

It's okay .... she's praying for Bush. It's all good!


12 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:27 PM PST by CurlyBill (Voter Fraud is one of the primary campaign strategies of the Democrats!)
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

It's over if Bush gets Ohio !


13 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:30 PM PST by america-rules (It's US or THEM so what part don't you understand ?)
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Stop posting this in every freaking thread.


14 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:41 PM PST by COEXERJ145 (The price of freedom is eternal vigilance)
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To: LS

Bush's lead has grown from 130,000 to 152,000 in a few short % of precincts reporting.


15 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:45 PM PST by craig_eddy
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To: LS
With 60% in Franklin (Columbus), Bush is ahead 50-49.5 -- he lost it 48-47 in 2000.

According to the Ohio SecState site, Bush is now 30000 votes down (53-47) in Franklin county, with 93% reporting.

16 posted on 11/02/2004 9:02:47 PM PST by Lyford
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To: Pitiricus
Could you go and panic on only one thread?

LOL. Thank you for that.

17 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:09 PM PST by Samwise (This day we fight! For all that you hold dear on this good Earth, I bid you stand, Men of the West!)
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To: LS

Professor, how d'ya think Cayahoga will "net" out?


18 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:11 PM PST by Cedric
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To: LS

PLUS, the majority of three of the four most conservatice counties in the state have yet to report in - Hamilton, Clermont and Warren (Greater Cincinnati).

LOOKIN' GOOD!


19 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:17 PM PST by Buckeye Battle Cry (The Measure of a Man is the Willingness to Accept Responsibility for Consequences of his Acts.)
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To: wmomof4

Where is it showing Wisconsin back to Bush? Drudge still shows it leaning Kerry.


20 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:29 PM PST by mainepatsfan
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To: Pitiricus

I agree, bro! Get that chick some ludes or something.


21 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:29 PM PST by RayStacy
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Relax Ohio is the key.

Look here:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/county.000.html

I did the math, extrapolated remaining outstanding votes and assumed the trend stays steady

I come up with :
Bush: 2.214 mm
Kerry: 2.168 mm

Others, check my math.

Looks good.


22 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:36 PM PST by L`enn
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE
I guess we really have to wait.......even more.....for our final exuberance! Again, we wait till the fat lady sings!

Now the question is, after last time, can we celebrate even after the MSM calls the race for the President? Profound.
23 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:43 PM PST by SolomoninSouthDakota (John Kerry purposefully went after the wrong goose in the wrong place at the wrong time.)
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To: LS

Why on NBC did they just say that people in OH are still voting? I've been trying to NOT watch tv lest I get an ulcer.


24 posted on 11/02/2004 9:03:48 PM PST by sockmonkey
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To: LS

Whoo Hoo!


25 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:35 PM PST by ladyinred (John Kerry has a plan to change the national symbol of an Eagle to a Chicken)
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Can you post that message just one more time?


26 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:40 PM PST by wolf24
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To: DUMBBLEACHEDBLONDE

Would you please stop posting this on every freaking thread?


27 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:49 PM PST by Trust but Verify (Their candidate uses rock stars to attract crowds. Ours IS a rock star!)
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To: LS
LS, many thanks for your cogent & reliable comments in the lead-in to election -- especially as relate to Ohio.

You da man (or lady ...)!!

28 posted on 11/02/2004 9:04:50 PM PST by dodger
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To: RayStacy

I know you cannot say from my name but it is... sister... :-)


29 posted on 11/02/2004 9:05:17 PM PST by Pitiricus
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To: Cedric

Don't know, don't care. The action is in the south. I'm a Vince Lombardi guy: Don't care what their D is, only care about running MY play. My play is the south puts this away.
If they can't win BIG in Montgomery, it's over.


30 posted on 11/02/2004 9:05:37 PM PST by LS
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To: Cedric

I am worried about Cuyahoga - look at these numbers:


It has only 741/1437 precints in!


31 posted on 11/02/2004 9:06:28 PM PST by pittsburgh gop guy
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To: LS

Bush is going for Ohio.

I am continuing to analyze by county. Cuyahoga was Kerry's only hope. It cannot pull him ahead. Kerry people say Athens can pull him ahead but it cannot provide more than 4000 additional votes-- still not enough.

It is looking great for Bush to win Ohio.


32 posted on 11/02/2004 9:06:32 PM PST by lonestar67
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To: LS
Tim Russert seems to agree with you.

So far, Bush is performing better in Ohio this year than in the 2000 election.

33 posted on 11/02/2004 9:07:02 PM PST by george wythe
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To: pittsburgh gop guy

Yeah, it's been stuck at 52% but jumped to 67%. Bush now leads by 119,000 in Ohio, and I see 55,000 more votes to Kerry based on Cuyahoga and Summitt County projections, still leaving a nice padding of a 64,000 lead for Bush.


34 posted on 11/02/2004 9:08:42 PM PST by cons_Mark
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To: Pitiricus

Apologies. Looks like we're gonna pull it out, yes? Hope and pray, hope and pray.


35 posted on 11/02/2004 9:09:28 PM PST by RayStacy
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To: dodger

Man, sir. Or madame.


36 posted on 11/02/2004 9:10:48 PM PST by LS
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To: pittsburgh gop guy

If you project out the existing vote in Cuyahoga from the 741 precincts which are 2 to 1 for Kerry, Kerry gains 225,000 votes. Bush gains 130,000 votes. This is not enough to change Bush's lead.

They would finish

2.069 million for Bush
2.028 million for Kerry

Kerry loses. Realize, that this is by counting ONLY Cuyahoga-- the most democratic and most populous Ohio county. Most of Ohio's 88 counties are strong Bush country.

It was all riding on Cuyahoga.


37 posted on 11/02/2004 9:10:57 PM PST by lonestar67
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To: cons_Mark

I think Kerry gets 80-85k in cuya - not 50

hopefully it is not enough either way......


38 posted on 11/02/2004 9:11:18 PM PST by pittsburgh gop guy
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To: lonestar67

Praise Ja-HEE-zus.


39 posted on 11/02/2004 9:11:59 PM PST by LS
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To: lonestar67

"Cuyahoga was Kerry's only hope."

Kerry: "Help me Obi-Wan Cuyahoga-i, you're my last hope."

C3P0: "I suggest you let the Bushies win."


40 posted on 11/02/2004 9:13:26 PM PST by Go_Raiders ("Being able to catch well in a crowd just means you can't get open, that's all." -- James Lofton)
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To: RayStacy

Me too...

One word: Ohio!


41 posted on 11/02/2004 9:14:09 PM PST by Pitiricus
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To: lonestar67
It was all riding on Cuyahoga

As of 12:03 67% precints in. This county is +119,000 fo sKerry. If trends continue 60,000 more for him. Not enough to over tack the rest of the state. Frankin (Columbus) and Hamilton (Cincinnati) are close to being a push,
42 posted on 11/02/2004 9:15:02 PM PST by tang-soo (Prophecy of the Seventy Weeks - Read Daniel Chapter 9)
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To: pittsburgh gop guy
An additional 500 precincts are posted at the county BOE website. Kerry Lead goes from 50K to 140K - not reflected in many MSM or even State of Ohio websites yet

PRESIDENT AND VICE-PRESIDENT

(With 1068 of 1458 precincts counted)

GEORGE W. BUSH/DICK CHENEY 173713

JOHN F. KERRY/JOHN EDWARDS 315986

http://boe.cuyahogacounty.us/BOE/results/currentresults1.htm#0531

43 posted on 11/02/2004 9:17:15 PM PST by westfield3
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To: lonestar67
It was all riding on Cuyahoga.

I hope you're right. The tradesports investors agree; both OH and the whole enchilada are close to 85.

44 posted on 11/02/2004 9:19:22 PM PST by ThinkDifferent (A plan is not a litany of complaints)
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To: lonestar67

Do they use the chad voting system in this county?


45 posted on 11/02/2004 9:19:39 PM PST by ml1954
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To: LS

Lockhart is claiming Dems are blowing the doors off in cayahoga county....


46 posted on 11/02/2004 9:19:50 PM PST by Visioneer
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To: westfield3

PRESIDENT AND VICE-PRESIDENT
Vote for 1 (With 1152 of 1458 precincts counted)

GEORGE W. BUSH/DICK CHENEY 179301

JOHN F. KERRY/JOHN EDWARDS 342637


47 posted on 11/02/2004 9:20:33 PM PST by PA Nav Vet
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To: LS

Jeez. How long does it take some of these states' precincts to report?


48 posted on 11/02/2004 9:23:05 PM PST by RogueIsland
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To: Visioneer

Dems are blowing the doors off Cuyahoga-- almost 2 to 1.

Nonetheless, there is not enough unreported votes for them to topple Bush's lead. A Columbus Dispatch article quoted a dem operative saying they would win Cuyahoga by 300,000 over Bush. They are nowhere near that number.

There needs to be some very unusual precincts in the remainder of Cuyahoga-- more for kerry than 2 to 1. My understanding is that the more powerful precincts for Kerry have already turned in results, outlying precincts-- mroe for Bush-- are now turning in.

The fact that a Kerry team member moments ago said Athen country proves a Kerry win demonstrates their desperation. Athens county could not possibly turn the Bush advantage.


49 posted on 11/02/2004 9:26:06 PM PST by lonestar67
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To: Visioneer
Estrich with a very serious face is focusing here. The calls have gone out to the army of attorneys. Cuyahuga County may be ground zero 2004. At least it's smaller than the all of the disputed counties in FL in 2000, I think.
50 posted on 11/02/2004 9:26:12 PM PST by ml1954
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