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Final Just the Facts: Memo from Matthew Dowd
George W. Bush ^ | November 4, 2004

Posted on 11/04/2004 1:20:56 PM PST by RWR8189

TO: INTERESTED PARTIES
FR: MATTHEW DOWD
CHIEF STRATEGIST
RE: INITIAL STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

President Bush won a historic victory yesterday by defeating John Kerry by more than 3.5 million votes,

58.6 million to 55.1 million (51% to 48%) and winning the Electoral College 286 to 252. In doing so, President Bush:

• Becomes the first presidential candidate to win more than 50% of the popular vote since 1988.

• Received the most votes by any presidential candidate in history - over 58 million, even breaking President Reagan’s 1984 mark of 54.5 million votes.

• Becomes the first President re-elected while gaining seats in the House and the Senate since 1936, and the first Republican President to be re-elected with House and Senate majorities since 1924.

• Received a higher percentage of the popular vote than any Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.

• Garnered 7 million more popular votes than in 2000 - more than twice the amount that President Clinton increased his vote between 1992 and 1996.

• Increased his percent of the vote from 2000 in 45 out of 50 states, including a 4 percent increase in John Kerry’s home state of Massachusetts.  President Bush ran just as strongly in the key battleground states as he did nationally. In the 14 most competitive states (AR, CO, FL, IA, MI, MN, MO, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI, and WV), President Bush won 51% of the vote to John Kerry’s 49% -- an improvement of 2 points from his 2000 performance in those states. Yesterday also revealed that the Republican Party has made historic gains with minority voters and women. Exit polling revealed that President Bush won 42% of Hispanics (up from 35% in 2000), 11% of African-Americans (up from 9% in 2000), 24% of Jewish voters (up from 19% in 2000), and 47% of women (up from 43% in 2000). In Florida, 55% of Hispanic voters supported President Bush, an increase of 6 points from 2000. Just as we predicted, undecided and late-deciding voters went to the President Bush by a small margin. Despite media predictions that Kerry would win up to 90% of late-deciding voters, exit polling reveals that President Bush won voters who decided in the week before the election, 51% to 48%. Furthermore, as we predicted, yesterday was the first time in modern political history that an equal number of Republicans and Democrats turned out for a presidential election. The Democrats’ 4-point advantage in 2000 evaporated, with Republicans and Democrats both at 37% of the electorate in 2004.

On a strategic and tactical level, Bush-Cheney '04 and the Republican National Committee helped the President turnout a record number of Republicans and make historic gains among swing groups through an unprecedented volunteer grassroots organization and the most sophisticated advertising and voter contact strategy in campaign history: Some highlights include:

• Combining traditional shoe-leather grassroots outreach with an unprecedented online effort to build a network of millions of volunteers who spread the President’s message and helped turnout the vote on Election Day

• Employing cutting-edge research to efficiently target Republicans and Swing Voters through media buys and voter contact, the first time a presidential campaign utilized such research.

• Advertising heavily on national cable and radio to deliver the President’s message to both influentials and voters who had moved away from traditional broadcast TV, another first for a presidential campaign.

• Building new support among Hispanic and African American voters through local outreach, arned media, and specialty media buys.

• Delivering maps and directions to polling places to our committed supporters and using ophisticated, targeted Internet advertising in the closing days of the campaign to get out the ote.

On a personal note, this should be the last “Dowd” memo because I am GTT (for those unfamiliar, that eans “Gone To Texas.”)


TOPICS: Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bc04; bush43; bushvictory; dowd; gwb2004; mattdowd; matthewdowd; realignment

1 posted on 11/04/2004 1:21:01 PM PST by RWR8189
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To: RWR8189

Sweet Victory and Revenge!


2 posted on 11/04/2004 1:22:37 PM PST by JessieHelmsJr
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To: RWR8189
• Garnered 7 million more popular votes than in 2000 - more than twice the amount that President Clinton increased his vote between 1992 and 1996.

my favorite..aimed right at the left and their "most popular President ever" bilge..

3 posted on 11/04/2004 1:23:59 PM PST by WoodstockCat (DNC and John Kerry: Forgers R' Us)
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To: RWR8189

Bump for reference.


4 posted on 11/04/2004 1:24:28 PM PST by mattdono ("Crush the democrats, drive them before you, and hear the lamentations of the scumbags" -Big Arnie)
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To: RWR8189

Great rundown of the stats but .....

Mr President, please fire Norman Mineta!!!


5 posted on 11/04/2004 1:27:55 PM PST by Rummyfan
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Comment #6 Removed by Moderator

To: RWR8189
". . . Becomes the first presidential candidate to win more than 50% of the popular vote since 1988. . . ."

I wonder if the Democrats have sat down and asked themselves what it means that no Democrat has been elected President of the United States with a clear majority of the popular vote since 1976? Four times a Republican candidate has won 50%+ of the popular vote since Carter; Reagan in 1984 and 1986, George H. W. Bush in 1988, and George W. Bush in 2004.

Are there any Democrats who think that this statistic is meaningful?
7 posted on 11/04/2004 1:30:34 PM PST by StJacques
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To: WoodstockCat

Another myth is that Clinton never won a majority "because of Ross Perot". He never won a majority because most voters chose not to vote for him.


8 posted on 11/04/2004 1:37:06 PM PST by scottinoc
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To: RWR8189
"the first Republican President to be re-elected with House and Senate majorities since 1924."

To be precise about it, the President who was elected in 1924 was Calvin Coolidge.

Coolidge was not really "re-elected" President in 1924.

He had been elected Vice President in 1920, and became President when President Harding died in 1923.

9 posted on 11/04/2004 1:39:45 PM PST by chs68
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To: JessieHelmsJr

Bump for later reference for my RAT friends and family....hehhehehe...gosh, I'm mean...;-)



10 posted on 11/04/2004 1:40:05 PM PST by RoseofTexas
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To: RWR8189

bump


11 posted on 11/04/2004 1:40:09 PM PST by rwfromkansas (BYPASS FORCED WEB REGISTRATION! **** http://www.bugmenot.com ****)
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To: mattdono

ME TOO.

I wish the bookmark feature actually worked...


12 posted on 11/04/2004 1:42:34 PM PST by RobRoy (You only "know" what you experience. Everything else is mere belief.)
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To: RWR8189

Also, another piece of data that shatters the myth that undecideds go 2-1 for the challenger in Presidential races...Dowd's numbers showed a 51-48 in favor of Bush for undecideds.


13 posted on 11/04/2004 1:44:19 PM PST by mrs9x
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To: scottinoc

...Another myth is that Clinton never won a majority "because of Ross Perot"...

Man, I had not heard that one. That's exactly backwards.
Conservatives went for Perot, not liberals. Bush 41 would have been reelected handily.


14 posted on 11/04/2004 1:45:37 PM PST by planekT
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To: RobRoy

?
the bookmark feature works just fine for me.


15 posted on 11/04/2004 1:46:54 PM PST by King Prout ("We've found more WMDs in Iraq than we've found disenfranchised blacks in Florida." - Ann Coulter)
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To: JessieHelmsJr
• Employing cutting-edge research to efficiently target Republicans and Swing Voters through media buys and voter contact, the first time a presidential campaign utilized such research.

It seems odd that this was the first Presidential campaign ever to use targeted advertising. What was different about this "cutting-edge" research and traditional demographic research?
16 posted on 11/04/2004 1:52:36 PM PST by highimpact (Where are we going in this handbasket?)
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To: RWR8189

I'm loving this...


17 posted on 11/04/2004 2:13:50 PM PST by kesg
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To: RWR8189

I know that this was written by Matthew Dowd yesterday, so some information is already outdated. Votes are still being counted in many States (absentee) and as of today, the President has nearly, 59,100,000 votes. Also, here is an interesting fact. When the MSM and the liberals tell you that we have a "divided" nation, tell them that THEY are absolutely, positively WRONG!! How could we be divded, when 83%, YES....83% of counties in the United States voted to re-elect President Bush?? An amazing statistic, isn't it?? PASS THE WORD!!


18 posted on 11/04/2004 2:16:03 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: King Prout

Well, I found out that it will tell you that it has been bookmarked and gives you the option to return to the thread. If you don't select that option, the bookmark does not show up - at least not for me. My last one did show up after I selected that option, but many others are simply not there.

It might be that the message shows up too soon, implying that it has been bookmarked when, in fact, you MUST return to the thread for the process to complete.

I dunno. You would think that if you get a message saying the bookmark has been added that it would have been added. I'm not whining about it. I'm just observing it.


19 posted on 11/04/2004 2:16:30 PM PST by RobRoy (You only "know" what you experience. Everything else is mere belief.)
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To: highimpact

I don't think that targeted advertising is new. I think that the "technology" used to identify our base of support, was the new aspect of the campaign. I hope we keep the technology under lock and key. We certainly don't want the democRats to have it!! :-)


20 posted on 11/04/2004 2:19:53 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: RobRoy

go to your FR homepage.
select the option "links"

a hotlink+URL list of all the FR bookmarks you have made will appear


21 posted on 11/04/2004 2:21:12 PM PST by King Prout ("We've found more WMDs in Iraq than we've found disenfranchised blacks in Florida." - Ann Coulter)
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To: GeorgeW23225

I am eternally grateful that Bush won. I said many prayers.

That being said, I think what most liberals refer to is not so much the county map, but the population numbers. They say Kerry carried several large cities, New York, LA, etc. where lots of people live.

So their argument is... even though the map is mostly red, a lot of those counties don't have many people living in them.

Again, I'm just repeating their argument...I voted for Bush!!


22 posted on 11/04/2004 2:31:11 PM PST by Cedar
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To: King Prout

>>go to your FR homepage.
select the option "links"

a hotlink+URL list of all the FR bookmarks you have made will appear<<

You would think so, but nope. Only "some" do. The one correlation I noticed was the one I mentioned in my previous post.


23 posted on 11/04/2004 2:36:19 PM PST by RobRoy (You only "know" what you experience. Everything else is mere belief.)
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To: Cedar

Well, if that is true, how come President Bush has 59,100,000 votes and sKerry has 55,000.000 ?? It seems to me that there really are people living in those counties.

Besides, take our 2 largest States (New York and California) and count their votes for sKerry. Then take Georgia and Texas, and count their votes for President Bush.

Guess what??? We win!!

Liberals AWAYS have an excuse for their shortcomings. I, however, always have the truth to confront them with!!

I am a "thorn" in a liberal butt!!! :-)


24 posted on 11/04/2004 2:46:55 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: RWR8189

Michael Moore will have to Greyhound.
Ops4 God BLess America!


25 posted on 11/04/2004 2:48:17 PM PST by OPS4 (worth repeating)
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To: Cedar

I forgot something. The 83% of the counties WON by President Bush has a higher population than the 17% that sKerry won.
Actually, by many, MANY millions of people.

Also......less crime per capita !! :-)

I just love exploding liberal lies and myths!!


26 posted on 11/04/2004 2:50:55 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: scottinoc

The only reason Clinton won his first term was because of Ross Perot.


27 posted on 11/04/2004 3:00:08 PM PST by PeoplesRepublicOfWashington (Democrats rushed to nomination without a plan to win the election.)
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To: RobRoy
hrmn... odd. mine works just fine.

maybe you have...
could it be...?
GREMLINS!

28 posted on 11/04/2004 3:13:34 PM PST by King Prout ("We've found more WMDs in Iraq than we've found disenfranchised blacks in Florida." - Ann Coulter)
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To: StJacques

Carter did not win a majority of the popular vote in 1976, I'm pretty sure. I think Johnson in 1964 was the last Dem to do it. May be wrong, though.


29 posted on 11/04/2004 3:55:28 PM PST by Agrarian
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To: GeorgeW23225
I don't think it's a secret: a series of surveys were done by volunteers starting last winter that contacted people, narrowing them from affiliation to issue and from unreliable to reliable. There were some repetitions of the surveys with an increasingly targeted population for each one. By the end, we knew who, where, what issue and how strong the support. Then, we got them to the polls.

Standard DB management tools were used at the grassroots level. What they did at the top levels, I don't know, but I fantasize computerized maps with every head counted and every issue/degree of support charted.

Anyone who worked at the grassroots phone level from February--November 2 knows this information.
30 posted on 11/04/2004 6:04:13 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: Battle Axe

You noticed that, didn't you?


31 posted on 11/04/2004 6:52:39 PM PST by Robert A. Cook, PE (I can only donate monthly, but Kerry's ABBCNNBCBS continue to lie every day!)
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To: reformedliberal

Thanks. Very interesting. Although it isn't a secret, I guess we just do it better than the democRats!! :-)


32 posted on 11/04/2004 7:08:35 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: mrs9x
...Dowd's numbers showed a 51-48 in favor of Bush for undecideds.

Undecideds are a myth.

33 posted on 11/04/2004 7:09:40 PM PST by There's millions of'em (Please give the mic to Terayza...)
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To: planekT
...Another myth is that Clinton never won a majority "because of Ross Perot"...

Man, I had not heard that one. That's exactly backwards. Conservatives went for Perot, not liberals. Bush 41 would have been reelected handily.


John Scott and the White House reporter on Fox were stating exactly that prior to the Presidents news conference today. First I heard of it. Maybe they get their talking points from the DNC these days.
34 posted on 11/04/2004 7:20:06 PM PST by dmartin (Who Dares Wins)
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To: GeorgeW23225
They are too busy implying that Rove has supernatural powers to control the universe!

I came away from the campaign experience realizing that our guys are all anal-retentive number crunchers. It was the thoroughness, the mind-numbing attention to minutia, the hierarchical organization that won this. It is one thing to GOTV. It is something else to know exactly which vote you need to make sure to get out.

Not to mention that they began lining up volunteers in the late winter of 2003. At every event, every rally and on the website there were efforts to sign up volunteers. In fact, our first survey was of those who signed up to winnow them down to those willing to phone. Sometime in September, IIRC, we were told via conference call that the campaign was sending us names of fresh volunteers who signed up via the website.

At the very end, counties that really needed a last push got a team of crack GOTV operatives from DC. These were college-age kids who had extensive campaign experience. The organized the volunteers to a finer degree. Some of ours were obsessed with the size of the win they wanted from our area.

Being Republicans, everyone had a great work ethic, too.
35 posted on 11/04/2004 7:35:45 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: Agrarian

"Carter did not win a majority of the popular vote in 1976, I'm pretty sure. I think Johnson in 1964 was the last Dem to do it. May be wrong, though."

I actually checked to make certain before I made the post. In 1976 Jimmy Carter received 50.1% of the total vote, which is a "popular majority," but only just so.

Presidential Vote in 1976

Presidential Candidate Electoral Vote Popular Vote Pct Party

Running Mate
(Electoral Votes)
James Earl "Jimmy" Carter, Jr. of Georgia (W) 297 40,825,839 50.1% Democrat Walter Frederick Mondale of Minnesota (297)
Gerald Rudolph Ford, Jr. of Michigan 240 39,147,770 48.0% Republican Robert Joseph Dole of Kansas (241)
Ronald Wilson Reagan of California 1 (not running) - Republican (1)
Eugene J. McCarthy of Minnesota 0 756,691 0.9% (Independent)
Roger MacBride of Vermont 0 173,011 0.2% Libertarian David Bergland
Lester Maddox of Georgia 0 170,531 0.2% American Independent William D. Dyke
Thomas J Anderson 0 160,773 0.2% American
Other 0 321,274 0.4%
Total 538 81,555,889 100.0%


You can "pop up" the following web page to find this information at:

http://www.nationmaster.com/encyclopedia/U.S.-presidential-election,-1976

36 posted on 11/04/2004 7:35:54 PM PST by StJacques
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To: RWR8189
"The Democrats’ 4-point advantage in 2000 evaporated, with Republicans and Democrats both at 37% of the electorate in 2004."

The Democrats' have progressively lost voter participation percentage points in each successive Presidential election. There was a time back in the 1930's where there were more than 70% of American voters registered as Democrats. Now they turn out a mere 37% (remember that figure when checking poll # internals in 2006), finally matched by Republicans.

Moreover, the *new* voters in this election will see decidedly different behavior in their futures based upon who they voted for.

Americans love winners, after all, so the new voters who voted Republican in 2004 will be more motivated to vote Republican in future elections.

The opposite is the case for the new voters who went for the losing Democratic Party.

37 posted on 11/04/2004 7:50:26 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: StJacques

1992 = 44,908,254
1996 = 47,402,357



92,310,611 = Total votes for WJ Clinton



2000 = 50,456,002
2004 = 59,100,000*


109,556,002 = Total votes counted so far for GW Bush

So who is the most popular President in history?!


38 posted on 11/04/2004 7:57:29 PM PST by Southack (Media Bias means that Castro won't be punished for Cuban war crimes against Black Angolans in Africa)
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To: GeorgeW23225

Thanks for the info. It helps to know.

Would be interesting also to know the actual numbers for comparison of the population in the 83% counties vs. 17% counties.

And maybe also the actual numbers of registered voters in each group, and comparison of numbers of those who actually voted.

(getting more complex, but would be interesting--I'm needing a statistician)


39 posted on 11/04/2004 8:16:54 PM PST by Cedar
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To: reformedliberal

It was an amazing effort!!

The results were well worth the effort.


40 posted on 11/05/2004 5:39:56 AM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: Cedar

Fist let mecorrect some bad information I gave you. The percentage of counties voting for President Bush is 81%, not 83%.

In those counties, the population is apprx. 160,000,000+. In the 19% of counties that voted for sKerry, the population is apprx. 130,000,000+

The Bush "counties" are also INCREASING in population, and the sKerry counties are DECREASING in population. That is GOOD news!!

Interesting, isn't it??? And it certainly disputes a lot of liberal myths......


41 posted on 11/05/2004 5:54:48 AM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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To: GeorgeW23225

Thanks for added info. It is very interesting.

I'm surprised how many people do actually live in those 19% counties. Guess city lights can dazzle...

For myself, I'm here with a metro area of close to one million other people, but desperately wanting to move back to a small town where life is normal!

Hopefully, I'll get to do that soon.


42 posted on 11/05/2004 11:03:55 AM PST by Cedar
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To: Cedar

I hope you get your wish soon, for the small town life.
Big cities are so dirty, crowded, noisey and crime ridden......UGH!!


43 posted on 11/05/2004 12:55:57 PM PST by GeorgeW23225 (Liberals really aren*t bad people. It*s just that they know so much that simply ISN*T true!!)
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