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I don't think there is a chance California will go red in the next 4 years unless San Francisco and Los Angeles Counties fall into the Pacific. That said I think the only demographic that will hurt the GOP is the latino's. According to Barone when you get away from the coastal areas they are not so Democratic. They actually usually vote Republican and they are now at 48% of the population and unlike the coastal areas are growing. Also the Republican's have a higher fertility rate then the Dem's, who are probably just buggering each other.

You bring up a good point about fertility rates. David Brooks of the NY Times (in an article reprinted here in the Dallas Morning News) mentioned that Bush took the 19 states, and 25 of the 26, with the highest fertility rates while Kerry took the 16 states with the lowest rates. Add to that another article (which I managed to misplace) mentioning that Dems have a higher % of abortions than do GOPers, and given enough time the GOPers will take over by sheer volume.