How Americans Voted: A Political Portrait

NY Times ^ | November 7, 2004 | MARJORIE CONNELLY

[EGPWS]

The statistics kind of speak for themselves. There seems to be alot of sorry women out there. But then anyone has to be a sorry individual to vote democrat in the first place.

"Anyone" is the key issue! ; )

[neverdem]

And you know what's missing completely from the article and data? Any questions about how active duty and/or retired military people voted. You would think, since Kerry was in Vietnam and all that, that this might be a good question to ask!

Total personnel, active duty and reserve components, is about 2.1 million IIRC, less than 1% of the population, so getting a large enough sample is probably difficult. They probably have sample data from veterans, which most likely is bad news. Remember, "All the news they see fit to print."

[GeronL]

This 'comprehensive' data is from the same people who did those exit polls apparently

[risk]

I'm a funny girl who would give up the right to vote if it would keep this majority of ding bats from voting demonrat.

There's hope for the Republic! But I say keep your vote, miss. We need smart American women who vote, express their conservative ideas, and who aren't afraid to arm themselves and protect their families and communities.

A woman's sensibilities are often important at a time of war, as well. Just think back to the Sybil Luddington story.

Sybil Ludington's ride

In 1777, 16-year-old Sybil Ludington rode 40 miles of countryside warning the colonists that British troops were burning Danbury, Connecticut. (Click image for the story.)

[jennyp]

Wow, 23% of gays voted for Bush! That's surprising.

[Dogbert41]

That's all great, but where were those that voted Guns? Kerry was the biggest gun-grabber of them all. The NRA let all 3 million of their members know it.

[nathanbedford]

Black voters, regardless of religion, continue to support the Democratic candidate overwhelmingly, giving almost 9 in 10 of their votes to Mr. Kerry. Jewish voters also remained firmly in the Democratic column, though Mr. Bush expanded his share to 25 percent this year from 19 percent in 2000.

In fact, a majority of Hispanics in general backed Mr. Kerry. Still, Mr. Bush won a greater share of the Hispanic vote than any other Republican candidate for president since the advent of exit polls in 1972.

These two paragraphs portend very grim prospects for Democrats because, contrary to the shibboleth, all politics in America are not local but racial/ethnic. The future success in national elections is virtually dependent on sucess with the Hispanic vote. In this election the Democrats lost 9 points while the Republicans gained 12 with this group which will decide future elections for at least a generation.

As for Afro-Americans, one can see the glass as half full or half empty for the Democrats who held their relative position with this group. I choose to see the glass half empty. This means the influence of this group within the party and the commensurate dependence of the Democrat party on Afro-Americans will only deepen. That in turn means that the inherent irrationality, conspiracy mania, and radicalism of the Afro-American "community" will increasingly infect and distort any rational efforts toward reform by moderates within the party. Without reform, and without the capture of the Hispanic block as they have captured the Black vote, the Democrat party is doomed to second place status.

This election has demonstrated that the Hispanic vote is not so easily seduced by demagoguery as has been the Afro-American vote and upon the good sense of newly minted Hispanic-Americans hangs the salvation of the Republic. I must admit I was not nearly so sanguine before the election.

Finally, the Republicans made modest but real gains among Jews. It remains if this is a phenomenon limited to Bush's aggressive lead in the war on terror and his solid support of Israel. I suspect the motives are mixed but it is clear that it is becoming intellectually respectable among Jews to vote Republican. This, of course, has profound implications which extend well beyond the absolute numbers represented by Jews because of their clout in shaping opinion and in fund raising.

So, all of this comes down to the issue of immigration and how sensitively it is handled by Bush who, despite his ill-conceived amnesty trial balloon, has really not handled the issue at all. The current level is clearly unsustainable but the Hispanic vote is the prize beyond all measure and it is not clear how they will react to any attempt to rationalize the chaos on the borders.

[neverdem]

BINGO, with your last paragraph!

[neverdem]

later

[NYCVirago]

Total personnel, active duty and reserve components, is about 2.1 million IIRC, less than 1% of the population, so getting a large enough sample is probably difficult. They probably have sample data from veterans, which most likely is bad news. Remember, "All the news they see fit to print."

They have a breakdown of the gay vote -- there's no reason they couldn't survey past and present veterans. But yeah, they know what the results would reveal, which is why it was left out.