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WHICH POLLSTER WAS THE MOST ACCURATE? (ranks both national and state pollsters)
RealClearPolitics ^ | 11/8/04 | T. Bevan & J. McIntyre

Posted on 11/08/2004 12:00:54 PM PST by Cableguy

By and large the pollsters did an excellent job this year, especially when you consider the significant variables they were grappling with (massive registration increases, historic levels of intensity, cell phones, etc) and also that they were working under intense public scrutiny and scorching partisan attacks from both sides.

At the national level the answer to the question is pretty straightforward. Ed Goeas's GW-Battleground Vote Projection and Pew Research got it exactly right. Goeas's final Battleground projection was Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.5 and Pew's final allocation was 51-48-1.

CBS News/NY Times also nailed the final spread in the race (Bush +3), though they didn't allocate undecideds which makes their final less impressive than Battleground's and Pew's.

Raghavan Mayur at TIPP also deserves a mention for outperforming almost all of the big media pollsters and coming in just a tick off the final results with their final Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.0, Nader 1.1 projection. Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports also had a solid final result with their Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5 final projection.

USA Today/CNN/Gallup finished poorly this year. Ironically, Gallup would have finished at or near the top of the list had they allocated undecideds 50/50 like Pew, as opposed to giving what appears to be 100% of the undecideds to Kerry.

By the way, just as a point for future reference Bush's Job Approval rating among likely voters in Gallup's final poll was 51%. President Bush's percentage of the national vote total this election? 51.0%.

Of the entire group of pollsters this year, only three got it wrong. Celinda Lake of Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (the Democratic polling firm for the GW-Battleground 2004 Poll), Marist College and FOX News/Opinion Dynamics all projected a John Kerry popular vote victory. (The Democratic polling firm Democracy Corps also called for a one-point Kerry victory.)

Poll
Bush
Kerry
Nader
Error
Final Results
51.0%
48.0%
0.4%
-
Battleground/Tarrance
51.2
47.8
0.5
Dead On
Pew Research
51
48
1
Dead On
CBS/NY Times
49
46
1
0%
TIPP
50.1
48.0
1.1
1%
CBS News
49
47
1
1%
Rasmussen
50.2
48.5
-
1%
ABC/Wash Post
49
48
0
2%
Harris
49
48
1
2%
NBC/WSJ
48
47
1
2%
Reuters/Zogby
48
47
1
2%
Newsweek
50
44
1
3%
CNN/USAT/Gallup
49
49
1
3%
ARG
48
48
1
3%
Marist College
49
50
0
4%
Battleground/Lake
49
51
0
5%
FOX/Opn Dyn
46
48
1
5%

Now to the battleground state polls. Let's stipulate up front that both the national poll and the battleground state analyses are not meant to be comprehensive or quantitative, but rather quick snapshots using a simple, commonsense grading system. We looked at two basic factors to determine accuracy rankings: the percentage of states where the pollster correctly picked the winner and how much the pollster's projections varied from the final result in each state.

One last thing. In addition to calculating the difference between the projections from each polling firm and the final vote totals, we also tried to determine whether we could detect any trends that might show favorability toward one party or another by consistently underestimating or overestimating support for one candidate or another.

Here is what we found from all of the final polling conducted in the 2004 battleground states at the Presidential level (Click Here to View the Full Tabulated Results):

1) Mason-Dixon
Failed to Project Winner: 6.2% | Average Error = 1.8

A final Minnesota poll showing a one-point Bush win is the only blemish on Mason-Dixon's otherwise perfect scorecard this year. Not only did Brad Coker project the correct winner in 15 out of the 16 battleground states we looked at, he did so with amazing accuracy. Four states were dead on the final number and the overall difference between Mason-Dixon's final polls and the actual election results was a minuscule 1.8 points. Furthermore, if you look down through the list of Mason-Dixon's projections it's impossible to detect any consistent leanings toward one candidate or another.

2) Rasmussen
Failed to Project Winner: 6.2% | Average Error = 2.3

Rasmussen's battleground state polling this year was extremely solid and a close second to Mason-Dixon. He was dead on in PA and just missed in IA. Average error was a very good 2.3 points, with NJ and AZ the only states where he wasn't within three points of the final spread. No partisan trends either way.

3) SurveyUSA
Failed to Project Winner: 7.1% | Average Error = 2.8

Some people have questioned methodology and reliability of SurveyUSA's polls. Their performance in the battleground states this year should answer a good number of those questions: 13 out of 14 states called correctly, including dead-on numbers in Maine, Michigan, and Ohio. The difference between projections and actuals in a few of the states (CO, FL, NV & NJ) was on the high side, even if it was within the margin of error. No identifiable leanings toward either candidate.

4) Research 2000
Failed to Project Winner: 14.3% | Average Error = 3.1

Del Ali's firm only conducted polling in seven battleground states this year. They got six of those states right, including nailing a Bush one-point victory in Iowa. The big miss came in Florida, where Research 2000's final poll called for a one-point Kerry win. Average error from the final results was 3.1 percent - which is respectable - though in every instance except one (Iowa) they overestimated support for Kerry and underestimated support for Bush.

5) Quinnipiac
Failed to Project Winner: 33.3% | Average Error = 2.3

Many people dismissed Quinnipiac's final poll in Florida (Bush +8) as an outlier. Wrong. Quinnipiac was closer than most in FL, and they also did a nice job in the only two other states where they polled, NJ and PA. In fact, Quinnipiac would have finished pretty high in our rankings except they called for a tie in Pennsylvania. All three of their projections overestimated the spread for President Bush.

6) Zogby
Failed to Project Winner: 27.3% | Average Error = 3.8

As we all know, Zogby had been on record for months saying that Kerry was going to win this race. Despite his final tracking poll that put Bush ahead by one point nationally, Zogby's polling at the state level reflected his belief that Kerry was going to be the beneficiary of huge turnout - especially among the youth vote. The result is that Zogby missed three of the eleven states he polled in (FL, IA, and NM), had a relatively high error rate across the board (3.8%), and his numbers generally skewed in favor of John Kerry.

Adding insult to injury, Zogby's bizarre election day antics calling for "surprises" in Colorado and Virginia and a decisive 311 electoral vote victory for Kerry suggest he was relying on (not to mention taken in by) the badly skewed early exit poll data.

Let's be honest: Zogby's conduct this year bordered on outrageous. No other independent pollster was out making public predictions of a John Kerry or George W. Bush victory months before hand. And no other pollster decided to wait until 5:30pm Eastern time on election day to post their final numbers.

7) American Research Group
Failed to Project Winner: 50% | Average Error = 2.0

ARG got a bit unlucky this year. They called for a 1-point Bush win in NH and the result was Kerry +1. They also projected a 1-point Kerry win in New Mexico and the result was Bush +1. The big miss, however, came in Florida where ARG's last poll had Kerry up two. ARG did offset these misses by nailing tight outcomes in IA and WI giving them an excellent score in overall average error.

8) FOX News/Opinion Dynamics
Failed to Project Winner: 50% | Average Error = 4.5

It stands to reason that if your national numbers are way off then at least some of your state numbers are going to be bad as well. This is certainly true of FOX's final poll in FL where they showed Kerry ahead by five points. In fact, that 10-point miss stands out as the worst among the final battleground polls we looked at. Another miss in Wisconsin put FOX News/Opinion Dynamics at 50/50 in battlegrounds, with an average error rate of 4.5%

9) Strategic Vision
Failed to Project Winner: 44% | Average Error = 2.4

We were assaulted by some people for labeling Strategic Vision a Republican polling firm. For the record, the reason we did this was twofold: 1) they had a history of polling for Republican clients and 2) their polls were not sponsored by any independent media outlets like newspapers and television stations.

Strategic Vision's projections for a Bush win in MI and a tie in NJ, seems to provide evidence that, at least in these two states, they were skewing toward President Bush. Their polling in the other seven battleground states was reasonable, though except for Florida and Ohio, they consistently underestimated support for Senator Kerry.

10) CNN/USA Today/Gallup
Failed to Project Winner: 67% | Average Error = 5.8

To find Gallup's name at the bottom of the list is nothing short of shocking. In four of the biggest, most important states in the election this year (FL, OH, PA, and WI) CNN/USA Today/Gallup wasn't even close. In fact, they got it exactly backwards calling for Kerry wins in Florida and Ohio by 3 and 4 points, and Bush wins in PA and WI by 4 and 8.

 


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004polls; final2004polls; polls

1 posted on 11/08/2004 12:00:55 PM PST by Cableguy
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To: dvwjr; Dales; RWR8189; ambrose; LS; counterpunch; skaterboy; Iowa Granny; Illinois Rep; kesg; ...

ping


2 posted on 11/08/2004 12:02:26 PM PST by Cableguy (Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years!)
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To: Cableguy

For state projections I'd say Mason-Dixon.


3 posted on 11/08/2004 12:02:53 PM PST by demlosers
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To: Cableguy

Where's Zogby? Oh, he is at the bottom of the list. Seeee ya!


4 posted on 11/08/2004 12:03:45 PM PST by big'ol_freeper ("Freedom consists not in doing what we like, but in having the right to do what we ought."-Pope JPII)
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To: Cableguy
Sorry guy but you left out one of the most accurate polls this election: the 7/11 coffee cup poll.

7-Election Outcome Reflects Current Actual Election Results Dallas, TX, November 3, 2004 - Today, millions of Americans will pour their first cup of the coffee of the day and pick up a newspaper at 7-Eleven stores to read the results of the too-close-to-call presidential election. And during the month of October, these same Americans predicted the outcome of the election with their coffee purchases with 7-Election, the coffee cup poll sponsored by 7-Eleven, Inc., the world’s leading convenience retailer.

Final 2004 7-Election cup counts tracked identically with published national election results of 51 percent for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry, and within a few percentage points of actual poll results in many states. Casting their “votes” in participating 7-Eleven stores across the country during the month-long promotion in October, customers served up these results:

I’M VOTING FOR BUSH cups – 51.08 percent

I’M VOTING FOR KERRY cups – 48.92 percent

Among swing states, Sen. Kerry had the top 7-Election cup count in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and New Hampshire, with President Bush prevailing in Florida and Nevada. Some states’ 7-Election results were less than a single percentage point apart. National, state and metropolitan results of the month-long poll were reported on the company’s website (www.7-Eleven.com) Monday and, just as in the 2000 election, proved to be about as accurate as the official voter polls sponsored by various media outlets and professional research companies. In the 2000 7-Election, President George W. Bush “out-coffee-cupped” Vice President Al Gore by just one percentage point.

“Some predict the future with tea leaves, I prefer coffee cups,” said Jim Keyes, president and CEO of 7-Eleven, Inc. “We have no margin of error because the whole idea of 7-Election was to have some fun and promote voter participation, not to provide a statistically sound sampling. However, it is ironic, that our results do fall within those historical margins of error or plus-or-minus 3 percent.”

With more than one million customers buying coffee in 7-Eleven stores nationwide each day, the company sells more hot beverages than any of its other proprietary products, brewing more than 10,000 pots of coffee an hour. Last fall, 7-Eleven introduced Café Combinations, expanding its hot beverage selection to include flavored syrups, toppings, new cappuccinos and cocoas, and steamed milk mix – enough options to create more than 1,300 different hot beverage combinations.

___________________________________________

Screw Zogby. When I want to know what is happening I'll ask Habib at 7/11.

5 posted on 11/08/2004 12:04:27 PM PST by CWOJackson
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To: Cableguy

I believe PEW was the closest in 2000 too.


6 posted on 11/08/2004 12:05:36 PM PST by bad company (Four more years.)
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To: Cableguy
Great analysis.

I think that real winner was the average of all the polls, since the margin of error shrinks significantly when several polls using disparate methods are averaged.

7 posted on 11/08/2004 12:06:31 PM PST by george wythe
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To: Cableguy

FOX News projected a Kerry popular vote win? What a bunch of liberals! </sarcasm>


8 posted on 11/08/2004 12:07:04 PM PST by trashcanbred (Anti-social and anti-socialist)
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To: demlosers

bump


9 posted on 11/08/2004 12:07:24 PM PST by Tribune7
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To: Cableguy

Too bad, no mention of the accuracy of the exit polls.


10 posted on 11/08/2004 12:08:23 PM PST by Lou L
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To: Cableguy
My uncle Fred was right on. He drank a beer and checked a woolly caterpillar. Then he drank another and watched the pattern of ducks flying north. He had another beer and looked at the lichen on the north side of the well. Finished the six pack and burped. The burp sounded more like Bushhhh than Kerryyyy so he declaired George the winner and fell asleep on the porch.
11 posted on 11/08/2004 12:08:37 PM PST by Blue Screen of Death (/i)
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To: Cableguy

So much for Gallup being the "Gold Standard." They did worse than Zogby.


12 posted on 11/08/2004 12:08:52 PM PST by My2Cents (The Democrat Party is pining for the fjords.)
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To: Cableguy; Dales
FReeper Dales was actually the best. I printed out his final projections from his website and used it as a scorecard all election night. As state by state results came in, I just kept checking them off his scorecard.

I think the only state he missed was Wisconsin, which might still be counting the absentee ballots.

13 posted on 11/08/2004 12:10:11 PM PST by MattinNJ (Only Arnold would have the stones to say Nixon was the reason he was a Republican.)
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To: trashcanbred

Actually, Opinion Dynamics are run by bunch of former Democrats.


14 posted on 11/08/2004 12:12:19 PM PST by Cableguy (Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years!)
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To: My2Cents

No, the new "gold standard" is now Pew and Battleground, plus Mason-Dixon, Rasmussen and SurveyUSA for state polls.


15 posted on 11/08/2004 12:13:19 PM PST by Cableguy (Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years!)
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To: Cableguy

bttt


16 posted on 11/08/2004 12:13:34 PM PST by Born Conservative (New annual national holiday for liberals: Shock and Awe Day , November 3rd.)
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To: Darth Reagan

ping


17 posted on 11/08/2004 12:14:18 PM PST by marblehead17 (I love it when a plan comes together.)
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To: Cableguy

Personally, I don't think a polling firm should be judged by whether they accurately "project" a winner, if the actual results are within the margin of error of the poll. For example, ARG picked Bush to win NH by 1 point. Kerry actually won by 1 point. ARG was pretty darned close and shouldn't be penalized in my view. They got it right within the margin of error. IMO, pollsters should only be evaluated based on average candidate error, not by whether they get winners right.


18 posted on 11/08/2004 12:15:33 PM PST by BlackRazor
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To: Cableguy

We all gave Rass a pretty rough time this year. I'm glad he was able to redeem himself. (But I still think publishing poll results for months on end that were never outside the margin-of-error was a waste of bandwidth.)


19 posted on 11/08/2004 12:17:57 PM PST by My2Cents (The Democrat Party is pining for the fjords.)
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To: BlackRazor

The big reason Pew was right-on? Luck!


20 posted on 11/08/2004 12:19:35 PM PST by My2Cents (The Democrat Party is pining for the fjords.)
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To: Cableguy

With most of the polls correctly predicting the winner, why were news outlets so quick to believe exit polls which are known not to have anywhere near the reliability? Even when actual vote totals came in, they were reluctant to get off the exit polls story. Is there any data out there whether the exit polls affected voting; maybe cost us some states?


21 posted on 11/08/2004 12:21:26 PM PST by ntnychik
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To: Cableguy

I'm not surprised about M-D. They had a stellar record from 2002, as well. When M-D results come in, people listen.

Zogby and Gallup state polls were the pits. Gallup should get out of state polling completely.

I am surprised about Strategic Vision being off. Sometimes I relied on their results for optimism in what I thought would be a tight election. They were over optimistic for President Bush and need to balance their polling a little more.

I'm happy for Rasmussen after his 2000 Portrait of America disaster. With Ras and Survey USA automated polling now proven, looks like this is the way the polling will end up. It's cheaper and seems just as effective as human polling.


22 posted on 11/08/2004 12:21:49 PM PST by plushaye (President Bush - YES!! Four more years now! Thanks Swifties & POWs for Truth. Thank you GOD!!)
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To: My2Cents
The big reason Pew was right-on? Luck!

I don't disagree. Many of the pollsters were correct on the final result, within the margin of error. To try to declare that any one of that group was more or less accurate than another, based on only a single data point, is kind of silly, IMO.

23 posted on 11/08/2004 12:22:19 PM PST by BlackRazor
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To: Cableguy

Mason Dixon being top dog is no suprise, but the performance of the phonebots -- Rasmussen and SurveyUSA -- certainly was.


24 posted on 11/08/2004 12:22:26 PM PST by kesg
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To: Cableguy

bump


25 posted on 11/08/2004 12:24:11 PM PST by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: plushaye
Gallup should get out of state polling completely.

Based on one bad year? Coming into this cycle, Gallup had a pretty good track record in statewide polling, based on the comparison data on SurveyUSA's website. They were in the top quartile in terms of accuracy before this year.

26 posted on 11/08/2004 12:24:51 PM PST by BlackRazor
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To: My2Cents

I agree that I prematurely wrote off Ras and SUSA. But Ras was right about the race being within MOE. Nothing wrong with publishing surveys everyday. That is how he makes his money.


27 posted on 11/08/2004 12:25:11 PM PST by Cableguy (Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years! Four More Years!)
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To: BlackRazor

I suppose. They do gold-standard national polls. I'm surprised that they flounder a bit with state polls. Rasmussen straightened up within 4 years so I guess they can to.


28 posted on 11/08/2004 12:26:40 PM PST by plushaye (President Bush - YES!! Four more years now! Thanks Swifties & POWs for Truth. Thank you GOD!!)
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To: CWOJackson
"Sorry guy but you left out one of the most accurate polls this election: the 7/11 coffee cup poll."

Don't forget the kids' vote - Weekly Reader!!

29 posted on 11/08/2004 12:30:31 PM PST by LADY J
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To: big'ol_freeper
Let's be honest: Zogby's conduct this year bordered on outrageous.

Zogby's behavior was disgraceful. He needs to pack it up after blowing 2 elections in a row.

30 posted on 11/08/2004 12:36:40 PM PST by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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To: KC_Conspirator

Glad to see that the FOX/Opn Dyn was SOOO wrong.


31 posted on 11/08/2004 12:38:02 PM PST by soccer_linux_mozilla
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To: trashcanbred

Fox polls is a joke! I hope to never hear those bozos in ever of our news casts again.

They didn't claim W when it was 98% slam dunk until the very end.

What in the hell were they thinking?


32 posted on 11/08/2004 12:38:06 PM PST by Lightnin
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To: soccer_linux_mozilla

Why is that?


33 posted on 11/08/2004 12:40:44 PM PST by KC_Conspirator (I am poster #48)
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To: trashcanbred
Faux news was suckered by the so called 'exit polls'.

The irony of it was that they were part of the cabal tht actually paid those libs to conduct those polls.

Will they learn to stop playing footsies with the left? I doubt it.

Don't know if it's true but NYPost reported today that CNN won the election night and day after ratings.

34 posted on 11/08/2004 12:42:49 PM PST by OldFriend (PRAY FOR POWERS EQUAL TO THE TASKS)
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To: Cableguy

On the whole, Bush had a three percent lead for most of the polling season, except for the brief jump after the convention. That seems to have been more stable than most of the actual numbers.

It is interesting to note that a three percent lead in the popular vote doesn't necessarily win the election. You gotta have the swing states.


35 posted on 11/08/2004 12:44:30 PM PST by js1138 (D*mn, I Missed!)
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To: Cableguy
9) Strategic Vision

Failed to Project Winner: 44% | Average Error = 2.4

Huh? They polled 11 states (PA, OH, FL, MI, IA, WI, WA, NJ, GA, MN, CA) and got 7 right, a 36% error rate.

They missed MI and MN by calling a tie, and WI and MN by calling a slight Bush lead trending towards Kerry.

Strategic Vision's projections for a Bush win in MI and a tie in NJ, seems to provide evidence that, at least in these two states, they were skewing toward President Bush. Their polling in the other seven battleground states was reasonable, though except for Florida and Ohio, they consistently underestimated support for Senator Kerry.

They only called a tie in MI very late. They had Kerry consistently ahead most of the time, including 1 of their last 3 polls in the final 10 days. Both NJ and MI were also polls with lots of undecideds still left by the SV methodlogy.

The "underestimating" of Kerry support is debateable, sicne the obvious answer is that they could simply say the undecideds in their sample broke for Kerry 2 to 1, as in MI, NJ, and MN. Mostly, the understatement was by 1 point, as in IA, WA, and PA, while they overstated Kerry 2 pts in FL and 1 pt in OH.

Its wishful thinking of RCP to call Strategic Vision biased, but to take Research2000 and ARG as not being severly left-leaning in their bias.

36 posted on 11/08/2004 12:50:38 PM PST by Hermann the Cherusker
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To: Hermann the Cherusker

Zogby should be horse-whipped.


37 posted on 11/08/2004 1:05:41 PM PST by JerseyRepub (I voted for John Kerry before I voted against him!)
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How does one correctly pronounce "Goeas"?


38 posted on 11/08/2004 1:08:31 PM PST by GretchenM (Kerry who?)
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To: JerseyRepub

Or, in Zogby's case, goat-whipped.


39 posted on 11/08/2004 1:10:01 PM PST by My2Cents (The Democrat Party is pining for the fjords.)
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To: Cableguy

Is Zogby officially out of business now? How could anyone take his "work" seriously now? Just another DNC plant.


40 posted on 11/08/2004 1:10:23 PM PST by Highwayman53 (Behind Enemy Lines...)
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To: Cableguy

Zogby and his brother are just low life Arab terrorist scum that support the "traitor" Democrat Party!!! End of story!!!


41 posted on 11/08/2004 1:41:43 PM PST by JLAGRAYFOX
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To: Cableguy
Newsweek's was probably the closest, at 6%, had it not been for the Dem vote drives, and ballot stuffing. I thought Bush would EASILY win by 8%. He was running against a joke of a candidate, a man who might fear he'll be asked even to resign his Senate seat in the coming months. But the Dem did get out the vote. What they did is spoil the margin of victory. They had no way to know that in sheer numbers, the Bush turnout would be what it was.

The ultimate numbers might be interesting, broken down by party affiliation. All I've seen are the totals for each candidate, even by county. But I haven't seen those county votes broken down by GOP/Dem. And I wonder how many actually registered . . as Dem voted for Bush?

42 posted on 11/08/2004 3:15:36 PM PST by sevry
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To: soccer_linux_mozilla

The pollster in charge of Dynamics is a bigtime Demorat.


43 posted on 11/08/2004 4:18:06 PM PST by GoMonster (GO)
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To: Cableguy

Nationally, Gallup's final poll wasn't so bad, but he allocated almost ALL the undecided to Kerry.

If he had instead honored historical averages (per Pat Caddell) that 60% of the last-minute undecided breaks for the INCUMBENT in presidential elections, then Gallup's final numbers would have been VERY close


44 posted on 11/08/2004 5:27:40 PM PST by Future Useless Eater (FreedomLoving_Engineer)
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To: kesg

"Mason Dixon being top dog is no suprise, but the performance of the phonebots -- Rasmussen and SurveyUSA -- certainly was."

I'm not surprised by SurveyUSA's results. They were the 2nd-best (behind M-D) in 2002 and in 2000.


45 posted on 11/11/2004 4:03:22 PM PST by okstate (I'm John Kerry, and I approved this message... before I decided against it.)
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To: okstate
I'm not surprised by SurveyUSA's results. They were the 2nd-best (behind M-D) in 2002 and in 2000.

Maybe, but in 2004 they seemed to get some key battleground states wrong in most of their polling, most notably Ohio and Florida (where at least until the end they consistently tilted three or four more points to the French Poodle guy than other major polls).

46 posted on 11/11/2004 4:19:12 PM PST by kesg
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To: All

bump for reference


47 posted on 11/04/2006 4:29:06 PM PST by finnman69 (cum puella incedit minore medio corpore sub quo manifestu s globus, inflammare animos)
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To: All

Reference Bump ... For the manic poll-addicted Freepers who are driving us more level-headed types bonkers. ;)


48 posted on 09/16/2008 7:06:48 AM PDT by AHerald ("Be faithful to God ... do not bother about the ridicule of the foolish." - St. Pio of Pietrelcina)
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To: AHerald; All
Good reference on last election results. Here is another image

from 2004 in mid October
49 posted on 10/23/2008 11:58:24 AM PDT by An American! (Proud To Be An American!)
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To: An American!

Thanks for that graphic.


50 posted on 10/24/2008 9:33:40 AM PDT by AHerald ("Be faithful to God ... do not bother about the ridicule of the foolish." - St. Pio of Pietrelcina)
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