China Plans Sophisticated Line of Military Exports

China plans a more sophisticated line of military exports as it continues to buy Russian technology

U.S. officials are closely studying what was displayed at the Zhuhai air show. They're looking for clues about what China is selling and buying, and how those transactions may change the makeup and tactics of its military forces. At the top of the items of interest that have already caught the U.S. Defense Dept.'s collective attention is a 7% increase in value in arms agreements during the last year that include spending $1 billion for 24 Sukhoi Su-30 fourth-generation multirole fighters and $500 million for the advanced, long-range, high-altitude Antei-Almaz S-300 PMU2 (SA-20) surface-to-air missile.

OTHER WEAPONS of interest include the Chengdu J-10 fighter (which bears a resemblance to the Israeli Lavi fighter and reportedly benefited from that country's technological transfers), the continuing development of the indigenous HQ9 SAM (a variant of the Russian S-300) and the development of land-attack cruise missiles for theater and strategic missions. Cruise missiles are a cheaper, more survivable alternative to developing a modern bomber.

In fact, classified studies began circulating in the Pentagon in 1992 regarding the emergence, about now, of stealthy cruise missiles on the world export market. As a defensive measure, the U.S. developed the active electronically scanned array radar (for the F/A-22, F/A-18E/F, F-35 and E-10 aircraft) that can detect and target small, stealthy flying objects, and the AIM-120C-6 version of the Amraam for more precisely striking small, slow targets in a head-on attack. The system has been flying for the last couple of years on 18 F-15Cs specially modified by Raytheon and Boeing to develop cruise missile defense tactics.

Overlaying the interest in weapon systems are Pentagon analyses of Chinese plans for modernizing the country's military forces. Chinese military leaders are still assessing their "lessons learned" from observing U.S. operations in Kosovo and Iraq, according to the Defense Dept.'s 2004 report to Congress. They are "rethinking the concept inferred from [Kosovo] that airpower alone is sufficient to prevail in a conflict," the report says. An important addition to the formula for success is the "integration of psychological operations with air and rapid ground operations . . . to target enemy leadership, its ability to communicate and its will to fight."

The two conflicts have reinforced the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) decision to accelerate acquisition of improved information technology, weapons mobility and precision weapons. Added to the fast track will be advanced C4ISR (command and control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and interservice cooperation, say U.S. analysts. The Chinese also are expected to continue research into electronic warfare, long-range radar surveillance and aerial refueling aircraft.

The new J-10 fighter (pictures of which are circulating on the Internet) did not appear at Zhuhai, but it's expected to debut soon. "At some point they are going to have to get it out there, especially with their future goal to sell more sophisticated weapon systems," says a Defense Dept. analyst. "It would be the first quality weapons system they have for the export market. But it's still in development, and I don't think they are actively trying to seek contracts right now."

If the Chinese can field a high-performance fighter, it is considered a logical step for them to compete with the Russians. However, the competition is going to be fierce, especially against MiG, which is pulling out all the stops to gain market share, according to international aerospace officials. "The Chinese will have to start offering some viable, modern pieces of equipment to stay competitive," the defense analyst says. "They've been somewhat successful with the K-8 trainer, but it's going to be very difficult for them to keep market share with F-7 and J-8 variants."

China has made a recent sale of F-7s to Pakistan, but that was partly because no one else would sell to them during the crisis with India. There have been no international sales of the J-8-II. "I think part of that is, the J-7 is a common airframe [with the MiG-21] and everybody has them, so it's easier to bring into the inventory and integrate," the analyst said. "The only country that operates the F-8 is China; so for support, [a foreign operator] is going to be lined up behind the Chinese units, since that still is one of their premier fighters."

The Chengdu FC-1 lightweight fighter is being built jointly with Pakistan. "We don't know what China's plans are for taking it into their [own] inventory," the analyst says. "I think that with the pace of Indian modernization, the Pakistanis realize China is the only way of getting advanced aircraft with full-up systems, and they are going to have to push for something a little better than the J-7 they have now." India bought upgraded MiG-21s from Russia while the Pakistanis were getting the upgraded J-7s from China. However, there's a big difference. The Russian-modernized aircraft have a beyond-visual-range air-to-air combat capability.

In addition to the J-10, U.S. officials will be watching to see if China is marketing the HQ9 strategic SAM, a variant of the SA-10.

"They are the same class of system," the analyst says. "I wouldn't expect to see it marketed because it's still in testing, but it would be interesting to see if there were feelers out there--if they were trying to develop that niche along the lines of the J-10 project.

"I wouldn't expect them to try to sell the J-10 and HQ9 as an integrated package because there's no real market," he says. "China's market right now is South Asia and Africa. There are a lot of people buying in Africa, and not just from the Chinese. But they aren't full-up systems. A lot of sales we've seen over the last several years are status buys. Most of those countries aren't able to adequately train and develop the capability. They are purchases just to give them a modern showpiece. It's primarily small batches of F-7s and K-8s and [shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles] all over the place."

THE U.S. REGARDS Iran as the most likely customer for a strategic surface-to-air missile since it's one of the few countries that could afford them.

"They have received equipment and technological support from the Chinese in the past," the analyst says. "Strategic air defense systems are a big money pit. While the training requirement is lower than developing pilots for an air force, it does cost money to send your operators over to get them trained, and with a large country, even a long-range SAM only gives you limited coverage."

Coming full circle, the Chinese military has its own shopping list. "It will be interesting to see what the Russians are marketing to the Chinese," the defense analyst says. "It has only been a couple of years [since the Chinese received the first Su-30] and they have already had deliveries of the [more advanced] Su-30MKKs and Su-30MK2s." The latter is a naval variant with modified Slotback radar with a maritime mode and the AS-17B antiship missile.

"There were 24 MK2s and 78 MKKs contracted for and delivered, and there are rumors of more purchases, possibly including an MK3," he says. "It makes sense that they will enter into further contracts because it will take them a while to get the production line going on the J-10 and to build the number they need to fill out their air force. There are probably a dozen or fewer J-10s, but from what we've seen, the development program seems pretty successful. "

The Pentagon tells Congress that rising personnel costs and the enforced divestiture of a number of PLA enterprises have crippled the military's funding sources, but planning is still ambitious. The J-10 may turn out to be more than just an interceptor.

"The Chinese want multirole aircraft," the analyst says. "It may be that the J-10 comes out as an air-to-air fighter initially and then transitions to a multirole aircraft. I cannot get into Israeli input into the aircraft. Since the Phalcon deal [which triggered U.S. opposition to Israel building an AWACS aircraft for China], the Israelis are very careful about what they have been doing."

So far, China has not been able to integrate its advanced aircraft into a modern striking arm. "They are transitioning from the J-7s and J-8s to modern designs," he says. "With that many new aircraft, it just takes time to train pilots. As far as the level of tactical proficiency, they are improving but they are at an early point in being able to employ those aircraft. The radar on the Su-30MKK is as good as the one on the Su-27 that has been recognized as a very capable fighter by Western air forces. But we've not seen them moving away from the ground-controlled intercept type of operation. That is still the norm. They have not demonstrated the tactical flexibility displayed by the Indian air force [which also flies the Su-30]."

The U.S. is currently most concerned about the high-quality deliveries from the Russians that include the R-27 (AA-10 Alamo), R-73 (AA-11 Archer) and R-77 (AA-12 Adder) air-to-air missiles as well as precision air-to-ground weapons. "IN CERTAIN AREAS [like semiactive air-to-air missiles and air-to-surface weapons] the Chinese will try to reverse engineer, but I would expect the purchase from the Russians to continue for quite a while," the analyst says. "The Su-30 really opened the door to a lot of weapons they never had before. I would be surprised--particularly with their desire to develop a precision strike capability--if after they received those weapons they chose not to pursue them any further, whether through additional purchases, agreements or reverse engineering.

"Right now, we don't know what the weapons load on the J-10 will be, but we imagine that after purchasing the Su-30 with all its capabilities we will see them trying to incorporate those systems on the J-10. They've stated clearly that it's the capability they want to move to. Their ability to do all the integration is a big question. Can they put all the weapons on the J-10 and make everything work?

"From a perspective of the entire [Chinese air force]," he says, "there are massive holes in capability, including electronic warfare [jammers in particular], information warfare, precision-guided munitions, advanced air-to-air weapons and command-and-control systems. I would say they are starting to cover those bases."

Hmmm. Weren't sophisticated Chinese weapons systems
on display in Iraq prior to March 2003? The air
defense system was integrated, or supposedly
so, throughout the country via fiber optics rather
than "hard lines". It was supposed to be immune
from ECM attack. As I recall, no fixed wing a/c
was lost as a result of the Tiger Song system.

I also recall that Russian-supplied ECM jammers
were largely ineffective. Operator or manufacturer
shortfalls???

Inquiring minds want to know.

MV

At the Dubai airshow last December, the Chinese had quite an impressive display. They operate an off-site permanent exhibition hall in Dubai. This should come as no surprise. Many nations like Pakistan, India, Israel, Iran, etc. are in the aviation business.

That's great!!!All you have to do is now buy a new multi-mode radar from Alenia Marconi systems(anglo-Italian Co) & integrate AAMs like the Russian AA-11 or French Mica to it.With a pretty competent pilot & a sufficient amount of luck,you could possibly turn the tables on an F-16 or F-18.

PS-For the unitiated,the J-10 was derived from the Israeli Lavi fighter(abandoned in the early 90s)-the Chinese were also helped out when Pakistan graciously loaned an F-16 from it's airforce.This combined with the fact that the Chinese have designed it with the capability to integrate Western avionics & weaponry doesn't qualify the J-10 to be described as your average Chinese piece of trash!!

China has been in the military aviation business since the early 60s.It's biggest buyer has always been Pakistan,which operates nearly every Chinese built aircraft,barring the J-8.They have also sold heavily to North Korea,Ethiopia & other African nations.China is among the world's largest arms exporters(in the top 5).Pakistan's & Iran's military industries are a result of foreign help.America(& later China) helped develop a military industrial base in Iran ,while it's been China all the way in Pakistan.

True. Iran has also been working with Russian and Ukrainian firms extensively. I'm glad to have a fellow observer, or perhaps fellow industry participant in FR.

1) 'OTHER WEAPONS of interest include the Chengdu J-10 fighter (which bears a resemblance to the Israeli Lavi fighter and reportedly benefited from that country's technological transfers), '

2)
Since the Phalcon deal [which triggered U.S. opposition to Israel building an AWACS aircraft for China], the Israelis are very careful about what they have been doing."

Two questions. Why is Israel giving technology to/and attempting to build AWACS for China! Was any of this Israel technology paid for by the US. If so I am very disappointed in Israels show of mutual support.

Well the cooperation on the J-10 was in the late 80s,when everyone including the US wanted a piece of China's military purchases.The cooperation continued after Israel abandoned the Lavi project(due to US pressure) & Israel was China's 2nd largest arms supplier by the mid 90s.Israel pretty much completely stopped it's arms sales to China by 2001,when the Bush admins came in & pressurised them & when China continued selling missiles & other stuff to Iran,Syria,Libya etc.The Phalcon AWACS is not only US funded,but also has US components & hence cannot be sold without American consent & due to that the Israelis scrapped their plans to sell it to China in 2001,p***ing off Beijing.Israel's biggest arms buyer now is India,which incidently will recieve around 5 Phalcons by 2008 ,the radar being mounted on a Russian Il-76 jet.Israel has no role in China's current AWACS programmes which revolve around buying the Russian A-50 AWACS(inferior to the Phalcon) & also indegnious research.

China is a player but extending timelines 10, 15, or 20 years out, will this translate into solidifying into spheres of influence specifically on the rim, Africa and the Mid-east? Will these become client states or will it simply be a nonaligned arms bazaar?

They have also sold heavily to North Korea,Ethiopia & other African nations.China is among the world's largest arms exporters(in the top 5).

Thanks for the ping.

I didn't realize that China was in the top 5 arms exporters. Do you know of any published breakdown of what they are shipping to whom?

Try the Stockholm international peace research institute site http://www.sipri.org - they do research on arms sales.There is also a UN arms registry site(??).But the problem with China is that a pretty big chunk of their sales "are below the table"-like nuclear & chem warfare tech,ballistic missiles & arm sales to nations under sanctions.So you won't get a clear picture from such sites.

Well it would be surprising if they didn't have problems-they have never developed anything like it b4( a fighter in the class of the F-16/F/A-18 & Mirage-2000 given it's rather privileged parentage from the Israeli Lavi & Pakistani F-16s).The issues could get sorted out however,when the EU lifts it's arms embargo on China(in another 2 yrs or so).If they can get access to state of the art Italian or French or Swedish systems esp avionics & electronic warfare-the J-10 can be expected to be very potent.

& with the European Aerospace industry going through a drought of late,they would be salivating to help.Imagine a fighter as sophisticated as a Blk 50 F-16 ,but costing only 1/2 as much-it would be a huge & instant hit in developing markets.

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