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CENTRALIZED OHIO Recount Updates

Posted on 11/12/2004 10:38:24 AM PST by montereyp1

Dirty Harry's blog "Stranded On Blue Islands" is going to be all over every aspect of the burgeoning Ohio recount. From the liberal loons to the media coverage.(Same thing really,)

Please boomark for updates and send tips and news. We'll have it all in one place.

Should be fun beating these RATS again in Ohio.

Here's the web address: http://mytwocommoncents.blogspot.com/


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
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1 posted on 11/12/2004 10:38:24 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

http://mytwocommoncents.blogspot.com/

Here's the prompt. Let's get Couric wearing black after another CRUSHING defeat.


2 posted on 11/12/2004 10:39:15 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

Recount? Do you mean Provisional Ballot Count?


3 posted on 11/12/2004 10:43:40 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (Make everyday Veterans Day.)
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To: Conspiracy Guy

The green and libertarian party's have banded together to raise the money for a recount. Most believe it is gonna happen.


4 posted on 11/12/2004 10:46:38 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

The 88000 spoiled ballots will not be counted.


5 posted on 11/12/2004 10:47:04 AM PST by jveritas
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To: jveritas

The 88,000 will be counted per Ohio Sec of State.


6 posted on 11/12/2004 10:48:03 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

How can they count ballots that are already spoiled and rejected?


7 posted on 11/12/2004 10:49:01 AM PST by jveritas
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To: jveritas

They will use 3 repubs and 3 dems to discern them but unlike FL they have set state wide rules: http://mytwocommoncents.blogspot.com/2004/11/today-in-ohio-thus-far.html#comments


8 posted on 11/12/2004 10:52:11 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

and you know this how?


9 posted on 11/12/2004 10:53:37 AM PST by epluribus_2
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To: montereyp1

any recount would be easy to fix. Heck, if dem workers carried the boxes at all, they might already be fixed. The spoiled ballots might already be a bit more spoiled to vote for the "right" candidate. Any recount in a close election is gas for the fraud machine. They needed .25 % to get a recount. They got 2.5%. Now I know most rat operatives are misedumacated but that's ten times the threshold and it ain't gonna happen. This whole stream of Ohio mystery vote hope is just therapy for dems in denial. It's over. Get over it.


10 posted on 11/12/2004 10:58:23 AM PST by epluribus_2
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To: montereyp1
A spoiled ballot means that they did not vote for a President or they voted for two candidates for President?

Do they by mean by counting spoiled ballots, i.e. determining the number of spoiled ballots or it is trying to determine "hanging chads"?

I do not like this at all.

11 posted on 11/12/2004 10:59:25 AM PST by jveritas
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To: montereyp1

How many votes did the Greenies and the Libbies get?


12 posted on 11/12/2004 11:01:44 AM PST by Conspiracy Guy (Make everyday Veterans Day.)
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To: montereyp1

Ballots with 2 votes for President (overvotes) won't be counted. Ballots with no registered vote for President (undervotes) can be counted if the ballots meet the Ohio laws. No "dimpled" or "pregnant" chads in Ohio. I'm pretty sure the law is that the chad has to be detached at two corners.

In any event, the undervotes would probably break along the same lines as the counted votes.


13 posted on 11/12/2004 11:01:57 AM PST by TexasAg1996
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To: jveritas

This is no different than Florida 2000. Only in 2000, they were fighting over a 537 vote margin, not a 130k + vote margin.

Like Florida, a recount of all ballots, including the undervotes and overvotes, hanging chads, etc., won't result in a change of more than a few thousand votes in either direction.

I suspect that the Kool-Aid crowd may drop the entire idea if Kerry doesn't make up substantial ground after the provisionals and absentees are counted.


14 posted on 11/12/2004 11:03:30 AM PST by ambrose
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To: jveritas
I do not like this at all.

do not worry. There are 155,000 provisional and 88,000 discarded. Kerry would need to get 77% of those (assuming ALL are counted) to win. This does not even count absentee.

15 posted on 11/12/2004 11:04:56 AM PST by KJacob (I seem to have lost my tagline.)
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To: epluribus_2

Called the SOS.


16 posted on 11/12/2004 11:05:13 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

What recount? If there are any Dems out there that actually believe that there is a recount of ALL the votes in Ohio, then that proves my point that Democrats are, as a group, the most ill-informed of all Americans.


17 posted on 11/12/2004 11:05:47 AM PST by Tallguy (Don't disturb me with talk of Hillary08!..I'd just like to bask in the afterglow for a while longer!)
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To: jveritas

They have set rules for spoiled ballots. 2 disconnected corners is counted. 3 are spoiled. It's a state-wide standard.


18 posted on 11/12/2004 11:06:29 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: epluribus_2

This isn't a recount.


19 posted on 11/12/2004 11:06:56 AM PST by Poohbah (Crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and hear the lamentations of their women!)
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To: jveritas

The have a set standard. 3 attached corners is a vote.


20 posted on 11/12/2004 11:07:00 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

And that's why Ohio will have a cleaner count than Florida. In Florida, you had every county using different standards. In Ohio, it's one standard. And, there's no way that all 88,000 spoiled ballots will be valid.


21 posted on 11/12/2004 11:07:39 AM PST by TexasAg1996
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To: montereyp1

Spoiled ballots ARE counted before the vote is certified. Then the recount begins if the greens and libs get the money together. CW says they will.

SoreLOSERMAN all over again.


22 posted on 11/12/2004 11:08:51 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: Tallguy

The Green Party candidate says that he will request a recount. However, he can't officially request a recount until all the provisionals and absentees have been counted and a winner has been certified.

It should be amusing. While Kerry isn't making this request, look for negative blowback on the Democrats if this actually occurs.


23 posted on 11/12/2004 11:08:51 AM PST by ambrose
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To: montereyp1

The math is on our side. It's all the other BS I'm worried about. : http://mytwocommoncents.blogspot.com/2004/11/ohio-undercurrents.html

Or another computer glitch.


24 posted on 11/12/2004 11:09:54 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: montereyp1

Count them. It will show who was committing fraud.


25 posted on 11/12/2004 11:11:17 AM PST by Poser (Joining Belly Girl in the Pajamahadeen)
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To: montereyp1

What the kool-aid drinkers miss is that a certain percentage of people intentionally leave their ballots blank, yet they are already counting those 96k spoiled ballots as all being votes for Kerry. They're delusional.


26 posted on 11/12/2004 11:11:36 AM PST by ambrose
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To: montereyp1

Computer Glitches are caught in the official canvassing. I'm not sure about OH, but in CA, they do a 1% hand count sampling during the canvassing process.


27 posted on 11/12/2004 11:12:47 AM PST by ambrose
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To: ambrose

Kerry's got to be behind this.


28 posted on 11/12/2004 11:12:47 AM PST by montereyp1
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To: ambrose
However, he can't officially request a recount until all the provisionals and absentees have been counted and a winner has been certified.

I thought they couldn't request a recount unless the totals were within .25%.

29 posted on 11/12/2004 11:13:30 AM PST by KJacob (I seem to have lost my tagline.)
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To: KJacob

.25% is automatic recount. They can *request* a recount if they agree to pay for it.

Ohio law refers to an application by the losing candidate. The law does not state whether the state must grant the application.


30 posted on 11/12/2004 11:15:10 AM PST by ambrose
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To: montereyp1

I read that late on election night the two campaigns quietly agreed to count 20,000 random provisional ballots. The idea was that if Kerry was winning 70 or 80 percent of them, then he had a justification for not giving up right away. It turned out the majority of the 20,000 ballots broke for Bush and that was what prompted Kerry to concede the next morning. The count was unofficial, but a good indication that the numbers just weren't there.


31 posted on 11/12/2004 11:16:50 AM PST by Hank All-American (Free Men, Free Minds, Free Markets baby!)
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To: Hank All-American

I meant to say, that was what prompted Kerry to decide the next morning to concede.


32 posted on 11/12/2004 11:17:39 AM PST by Hank All-American (Free Men, Free Minds, Free Markets baby!)
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To: ambrose
The law does not state whether the state must grant the application.

So if Bush maintains a lead of 100,000 plus after provisionals are counted, the State could simply deny the request for a recount? I have to think if the numbers are that large then they will not bother.

33 posted on 11/12/2004 11:17:46 AM PST by KJacob (I seem to have lost my tagline.)
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To: Hank All-American

Link??


34 posted on 11/12/2004 11:18:25 AM PST by TexasAg1996
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To: Hank All-American

Is that true or just a myth? I seems logical but can you count 20,000 that quickly?


35 posted on 11/12/2004 11:19:13 AM PST by KJacob (I seem to have lost my tagline.)
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To: Hank All-American
I read that late on election night the two campaigns quietly agreed to count 20,000 random provisional ballots. The idea was that if Kerry was winning 70 or 80 percent of them, then he had a justification for not giving up right away. It turned out the majority of the 20,000 ballots broke for Bush and that was what prompted Kerry to concede the next morning. The count was unofficial, but a good indication that the numbers just weren't there.

Provisional ballots are kept in sealed envelopes, and I believe today is the first day they are legally allowed to open them.

The provisionals are spread all throughout the state, not just in the Cleveland area. While it is tempting to think that only DIMwit types don't know where to vote, historical evidence shows that provisional ballots pretty much follow election day voting patterns.

36 posted on 11/12/2004 11:21:05 AM PST by ambrose
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To: ambrose

exactly. If someone voted 80% rat, 20% rep on all issues but left the president choice blank, giving it to kerry is manufacturing votes. Methinks they did this with bows on in Florida and it is illegal. A decision not to vote for pres while voting rat down the line sounds mostly like someone who could not stomach the thought of voting for JFng but liked his local rats.


37 posted on 11/12/2004 11:21:05 AM PST by epluribus_2
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To: KJacob; TexasAg1996

Gee, you guys demand a source? What happened to good old-fashioned rumor and innuendo?

Okay, I searched my recollection and found it archived on polipundit:

http://polipundit.com/index.php?m=200411

I don't know if it is true or not, but it makes sense. And I think an unnofficial count could occur that quickly. Give twenty people a thousand ballots each and have them tick off Bush or Kerry on a counter.


38 posted on 11/12/2004 11:26:05 AM PST by Hank All-American (Free Men, Free Minds, Free Markets baby!)
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To: Hank All-American

you may have been thinking of this article:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1269974/posts


39 posted on 11/12/2004 11:32:45 AM PST by ambrose
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To: ambrose

Perhaps the account was false. Or maybe election officials allowed for a sampling to be opened and counted under strict supervision (which would explain why nobody's talking about it, since it may have been extra-legal).

Hey, I didn't make this story up. I merely circulated it without regard to its veracity in a shameless display of rumor-mongering.


40 posted on 11/12/2004 11:33:03 AM PST by Hank All-American (Free Men, Free Minds, Free Markets baby!)
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To: Hank All-American; All

Besides, if Kerry knew he had the votes to force a recount or win in Ohio, I don't think we would have conceded the election at all...


41 posted on 11/12/2004 11:38:54 AM PST by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: All

People,

We don't have any firm numbers for this thread. The only thing official we know is the SOS website listed 155,000 provisionals statewide.

The "spoiled ballots" are ballots temporarily shelved because they did not show a vote for prez (undervotes) or they showed two votes for prez (overvotes).

A process has been underway the last few days to identify which of the 155000 PVs are valid votes by validly registered voters. We have only rumor as to how that evaluation is going In Total. We do have a partial count earlier this week that suggested about 66% of them would be ruled valid votes. That 66% were scattered all over the state, though there are rumors about that though scattered they are concentrated in urban areas of various cities. That would imply a leaning towards Kerry for them.

It is not clear if the 88000 number earlier in this thread is the actual count of the 155,000 PVs that are ruled valid or some additional number of potential votes.

Bush's lead is about 132000 after deducting the known error reported earlier of 3800 votes.

In the worst case of interpretation of all the rumors, there are 155000 + 88000 votes available to make up that gap. That's 243000 votes. The way to perform the calculation for what is needed is to deduct 132K from 243K and get 112K. Kerry needs 132K + 1/2 of that remaining 112K to catch up. This is 66K + 132K = 198000 votes. This is 81% of the total worst case interpretation of what total is available to extract votes from.

Bush's odds of victory remain good.


42 posted on 11/12/2004 11:56:31 AM PST by Owen
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To: ambrose

I am eager to know how many provisional ballots in Ohio were accepted and how many were rejected. Does anyone have a source/Link on how to find this out.


43 posted on 11/12/2004 11:56:51 AM PST by jveritas
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To: KevinDavis; All

I am kind of confused. There seems to be a lot of contradictory information here.

Were ballots discarded, were they not? Overvote yes, undervotes not?

Provisional ballots?


44 posted on 11/12/2004 11:59:23 AM PST by Perdogg (W stands for Winner)
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To: Owen

Also you are assuming that all the provsional ballots and spoiled ballots will be counted, which is impossible.


45 posted on 11/12/2004 12:00:08 PM PST by jveritas
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To: Owen

Ack, minor math error. 56K not 66K. That changes the needed win % for Kerry to 77%, not 81%. Still a very steep mountain to climb, state wide.


46 posted on 11/12/2004 12:00:08 PM PST by Owen
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To: jveritas

I am indeed. That is what "worst case" means.


47 posted on 11/12/2004 12:00:45 PM PST by Owen
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To: Owen

John Fund is apparently reporting that about half of the provisionals are being tossed.


48 posted on 11/12/2004 12:05:48 PM PST by ambrose
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To: ambrose

If that's true, then there is no way Kerry could win.


49 posted on 11/12/2004 12:09:36 PM PST by Perdogg (W stands for Winner)
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To: ambrose
I read earlier today that John Fund had mentioned on Brit Hume last night that almost half of the provisional ballots have been rejected.

However according to this thread, they link to http://mytwocommoncents.blogspot.com/2004/11/today-in-ohio-thus-far.html#comments, and this guy is claiming that in his phone conversation today with the Ohio Secretary of State official, the official does not know anything about what John Fund is reporting regarding the number of rejected Provisional ballots.

50 posted on 11/12/2004 12:17:05 PM PST by jveritas
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