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GOP'S Future Sits Precariously On Small Cushion Of Victory (Liberal Ronald Brownstein Alert)
Los Angeles Times ^ | 11/15/04 | Ronald Brownstein

Posted on 11/15/2004 1:58:19 AM PST by goldstategop

Measured another way, Bush won 53% of the 538 electoral college votes available this year. Of all the chief executives reelected since the 12th Amendment separated the vote for president and vice president — a group that stretches back to Thomas Jefferson in 1804 — only Wilson (at 52%) won a smaller share of the available electoral college votes. In the end, for all his gains, Bush carried just two states that he lost last time.

Another trend explains why all of this might matter to more than just historians: Throughout American history, the reelection of a president has usually been a high-water mark for the president's party. In almost every case, the party that won reelection has lost ground in the next presidential election, both in the popular vote and in the electoral college.

(Excerpt) Read more at latimes.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Culture/Society; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fragile; gopvictory; presidentbush; ronaldbrownstein; secondterm
The key paragraph in Ronald Brownstein's analysis is the following one. Usually a President's re-election turns out to be the high-water mark for the party in power. In virtually every case except in 1998, it has lost ground both in the popular vote and the electoral college, by the time of the next election - when there's usually a pent-up public demand for a change of party. Can President Bush break this historical pattern? The stakes are high for him and the GOP as they look forward to the mid-term 2006 election and then to the next presidential election in 2008 that will decide President Bush's successor.
1 posted on 11/15/2004 1:58:20 AM PST by goldstategop
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To: goldstategop

Thats a redundant headline. and he used 'victory' twice in it


2 posted on 11/15/2004 2:00:01 AM PST by GeronL (http://images7.fotki.com/v125/photos/2/215708/780411/reow-vi.jpg?1100155138)
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To: GeronL

LOL!!! My goof. The headline should read, GOP's FUTURE. The Admin Mod can fix the headline if he likes. Thanks.


3 posted on 11/15/2004 2:02:56 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

First of all, it wasn't a small cushion of victory no matter how they try to spin it. Secondly, if the attacks here on FR already are any indication, the President's enemies will be his own party.


4 posted on 11/15/2004 2:03:48 AM PST by ladyinred (Congratulations President Bush! Four more years!)
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To: ladyinred

Yep. The moderates and RINOs will out swinging.


5 posted on 11/15/2004 2:06:43 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop

There is always a danger in great victory, for example the British Tory win in 1992 was considered to be a great achievement at the time, yet it lead to the defeats of 1997 and 2001; had we lost marginally to Labour then, the Tories would have been back in (and strongly so) in 1997.

That said, this looks like an attempt to find the silver-lining to the cloud (from the left-wing perspective); Pres. Bush increased his popular vote, his share of the popular vote, his share of the Electoral College, and his party's representation in both houses of Congress. This is nothing other than a disaster for the Democratic Party.


6 posted on 11/15/2004 2:12:41 AM PST by tjwmason ("The English, the English, the English are best; I wouldn't give tuppence for all of the rest")
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To: goldstategop; tjwmason; ladyinred; GeronL; Fedora
I am an effete, bespectacled, liberal columnist...

FEAR ME!!!

7 posted on 11/15/2004 2:20:06 AM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham ("They don't want some high brow hussy from NYC characterizing them as idiots..." (Zell Miller)
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham
fear me??

maybe the girlie men would be afraid

8 posted on 11/15/2004 2:22:37 AM PST by GeronL (http://images7.fotki.com/v125/photos/2/215708/780411/reow-vi.jpg?1100155138)
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To: goldstategop
It depends on what sort of get out the vote effort both sides mount (as always).

The left was not voting for Kerry, they were voting against Bush. Bush isn't running next time. Cheney won't be running. Hard to push against "Bush and Cheney" when neither is in the race. Some of Kerry's voter base included conflicting demographics for example homosexuals vs. Christian or even muslim black voters; they oppose same sex marriage AND they oppose attempts to liken the homosexual campaign to racial segregation (Kerry had to FLIP FLOP).

Bush got votes from "911 Democrats" who switched parties on the WOT issue (Dick Morris, Ed Koch, Ron Silver, et al), Christian conservatives who focus on abortion and same sex marriage (the Amish voters factor into Bush's Ohio victory to some degree), Americans against Kerry (a known traitor to his nation during Vietnam and someone who indicated he would sell us out to the United Nations), Americans against the Mainstream Media (the backlash to their support of Michael Moore, Rock The Liberal Vote, constant Bush bashing, hoaxes as news such as Rathergate...), and those who actively support President Bush in all of his policies (or at least see that he offers a better shot at the policies they want than Kerry could ever offer).

George W. Bush succeeded in getting more popular votes than all "ANYBODY BUT BUSH" candidates combined. A healthy majority of 3million voters. Bush got more votes than Ronald Reagan. Voters wanted to make sure that Kerry did not get in office.

Will people turn out next time? Who knows? Totally depends on what happens over the next 4 years. Will the UN disintegrate after being exposed as a part of the problem? Will the right to LIFE be clarified in the Constitution so that abortion is off the table as an issue? Will same sex marriage be off the table?

Will war or national security have new conflicts to worry voters?

The left is selling socialism a little at a time. Expect to see them yet again selling nationalized health care, more environmentalism (get people out of cars), still opposing school choice. Welfare and Social Security may also be yet again a part of their drumbeat.

9 posted on 11/15/2004 2:27:23 AM PST by weegee (WE FOUGHT ZOGBYISM November 2, 2004 - 60 Million Voters versus 60 Minutes - BUSH WINS!!!)
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To: goldstategop

The insults these days might just as well be written by high school drama queens for all the impact they have. This is a very lightweight commentary for a paper that used to have a shred of respectability. Wave good-buy as the LAT(itanic) slips into the merky waters of oblivion.


10 posted on 11/15/2004 2:28:42 AM PST by DoughtyOne (US socialist liberalism would be dead without the help of politicians who claim to be conservatives)
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To: goldstategop

voodo predictive analysis only applies if the Washington Redskins win by a field goal kicked on a fourth down against the wind by a kicker with an even numbered jersey...


11 posted on 11/15/2004 2:33:59 AM PST by DBeers
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To: weegee
They will not be so stupid next time around, and they will not let their anger blind them. Watch them take more state houses. We should not think that we have won anything but a battle this year. What is needed is to come out in the open about their agenda at the national political level. This means that senior GOP leadership needs to denounce the incremental approvh of the Rats that you have mentioned as a major issue.

I do not see this happening. It will take grassroots organization at the grass roots level to hold their feet to the fire.

WE need to get before the voter what the long term issues are and force the issue.

12 posted on 11/15/2004 2:39:26 AM PST by CasearianDaoist
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To: goldstategop

hmmm, i guess he didn't read david shuster's column today about how deep the bush revolution is....http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5445086/


13 posted on 11/15/2004 2:57:03 AM PST by wildwood
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To: GeronL
If this was Kerry they would be calling it a mandate. That being said I do believe that Republicans need to use their mandate with humility and wisdom. The country is still very divided and will continue to be so. We need to enact our programs however it must be done with diplomacy and a willingness to work with conservative Dems. This will consolidate our gains and help with 2008. If it is done in arrogance there will be a backlash and we could lose both Congress and the Presidency in the next election.

This is exactly what the Dems are hoping for. Of course they will try and paint every decision as an example of arrogance. I am in hopes that our willingness to work with conservative Dems will cause a stronger rift in the Dem party leaving only their nut wing factions. Without Dems reclaiming their conservative elements they will be disabled as a party. There are just not enough nuts for them to win.

14 posted on 11/15/2004 3:18:12 AM PST by foolscap
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To: wildwood; goldstategop
And they didn't read the interview with the two hackers from the VRWC about Karl Rove's diabolical plan to keep the elections close. This is verbatim from Frank J.' IMAO blog:

Dude, Where's My Votes? Man, I was so happy with our win, but then I found out that places like Democratic Underground are arguing that Bush stole the election once again. What? But what about all those votes? Well, Wikipedia even has a page up about how the election was stolen with charts and everything. Is something up? Well, I contacted my local wing of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy who patched me into the national arm of the VRWC. Then I got to talk to two people I shall refer to as Hacker1 and Hacker2. Here is the conversation:

Frank: So, did we steal the election this time?

Hacker1: Yeah, totally. We like rigged all the machines so there was no way we could lose.

Frank: Why didn't you tell me we had it in the bag? I was like totally worried about this election!

Hacker2: Sorry, dude, but we were like told not to spread it around too much.

Hacker1: Yeah, we needed everyone to act like it was close and worrisome so no one would know we like totally hacked it. That Karl Rove is smart, dude; he knows how to run things.

Hacker2: Yeah, Rove is totally evil and totally cool.

Frank: So did you hack voting everywhere?

Hacker1: Yeah, otherwise it would look weird if we only improved in the battleground states.

Hacker2: Rove was completely in charge of all that. He even came in last minute and said, "Give them New Hampshire," and we were like, "Whatever."

Frank: So was it hard hacking the vote?

Hacker1: Sorta, but Diebold gave us easy to follow instructions.

Hacker2: We totally owned all the votes.

Hacker1: Totally.

Hacker2: It was funny to see the Democrats try and cheat the old-fashioned way. They can bring in all the dead people they want to vote, but we'll just change their votes to Republican in the end.

Hacker1: (laughs) I bet you didn't know this, but Michael Moore voted for Bush.

Hacker2: (laughs) He doesn't know it either.

Frank: But aren't people going to find out about this eventually?

Hacker1: Not if we're careful, dude.

Hacker2: First off, we're not going to hand out many landslides. It's going to be a bunch of real close ones so we can say to the Democrats, "Oh, that was so close. You really should try again."

Hacker1: (laughs) We're going to drive them nuts.

Hacker2: Anyway, the VRWC will save money in the future as we cut back on commercials and campaign appearances, but Rove will make sure we don't cut back so much that it looks suspicious.

Frank: Except to the Democratic Underground.

Hacker1: Yeah, there's no fooling those guys. They're on top of everything. Luckily, Rove had a plan for them too.

Hacker2: What he did was get all these mental patients - total schizos - and brainwash them about how evil the Republicans are. Then he gave them internet connections.

Hacker1: Now the schizos that Rove planted totally rule the Democratic Underground discussion forum. They’re the most prolific posters. Instead of getting anywhere on all the evil plans we have, they waste time blaming a Democrat event being rained out on Karl Rove.

Hacker2: Which is stupid because our weather machine is only 60% complete.

Frank: What about bloggers talking about voting malfeasance?

Hacker1: Dude, Rove totally owns the blogosphere. Most of the popular bloggers write only what Rove tells them.

Frank: Like who?

Hacker1: Well, Charles Johnson of Little Green Footballs, half the people at the Volokh Conspiracy, and Scott Ott of Scrappleface.

Frank: I knew it!

Hacker2: The phrase "Axis of Weasels" was all Rove's idea.

Frank: So he controls the bloggers to combat the left-wing blogs like the DailyKos?

(both hackers laugh)

Hacker1: Dude, Rove personally writes DailyKos.

Hacker2: Yeah, he wants to control what the left are whining about.

Frank: Whoa! That Rove is one sinister, evil dude!

Hacker2: Totally.

Frank: Hey, has Rove ever mentioned my site?

Hacker1: Uh... yeah, once. He asked me, "What's this site 'IMAO'?" And I told him, "Remember, it's the one with the moon exploding." And he said, "Oh yeah, it's the stupid site about the angry dog."

Frank: Cool! He knows my site! So, back to the main subject, what's in the future of voting now that we own it?

Hacker1: We'll only keep fixing elections for so long. Eventually we'll dissolve the Democratic party and turn the U.S. into a one-party ruled dictatorship.

Hacker2: That's Rove's long-term plans.

Frank: Neato. Well, thanks for talking to me.

Hacker1: You're not going to publish this, are you?

Frank: Uh... well... er... uh... no.

15 posted on 11/15/2004 3:19:07 AM PST by Roy Tucker
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To: goldstategop
Measured another way, Bush won 53% of the 538 electoral college votes available this year.

Or measured another way Bush got 3.5 million more votes.

Get over it!!

16 posted on 11/15/2004 3:22:31 AM PST by Phlap (REDNECK@LIBARTS.EDU)
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To: foolscap
Its 5:31 AM... getting tired

17 posted on 11/15/2004 3:31:22 AM PST by GeronL (http://images7.fotki.com/v125/photos/2/215708/780411/reow-vi.jpg?1100155138)
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To: goldstategop
Take away so of the states that Kerry won by small margins [Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania], and it becomes a landslide for the Republicans.

Sore losers try to find a way to live with themselves the next four years. This person sounds like he has trouble accepting the Red Mandate just as some people of California wanted to join Canada.

18 posted on 11/15/2004 3:36:58 AM PST by topher
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To: goldstategop

(Sigh

If Kerry had won the election by a margin of 51% to 48%, the leftists would be trumpeting their "mandate" to the four corners of the world and how Kerry had crushed Bush in a landslide election.

Well, turnabout is fair play. Our guy won - by a large margin and your guy lost.

Deal with it.


19 posted on 11/15/2004 3:48:37 AM PST by DustyMoment (Repeal CFR NOW!!)
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To: goldstategop

Yeah, the Democrats are expecting a big comeback-that's why they're moving to Canada.


20 posted on 11/15/2004 4:30:52 AM PST by libertylover (I love it when liberals are livid.)
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To: goldstategop

WEll I still say with a good economy , an opponent like Kerry ,and no scandals Bush should have had a landslide ala Reagan and his father's election

The barbarians are at the gate and haven't left

Iraq could get real ugly and Social Security is going to be a bitch to fix

We are living in a credit card economy that is a house of plastic

TOO many Americans don't know what a bad economy really is
and any slight downturn( they may have to give uo one of the family's 5 cell phones ) will have them convinced they are living through a Second Great Depression

This war will need $$$$$ to run etc etc

The colleges continue to turn out more brainwashed lefties every year while the conservative right pretty much tapped ALL its available resources vote wise this year


21 posted on 11/15/2004 4:36:55 AM PST by uncbob
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To: goldstategop
This and all the other hankie-wringing silver lining in clouds pieces are based on the utterly stupid idea that George Bush -- who has been incredibly successful in party building, first in Texas and now in Washington -- will, once he enters his "lame duck" term, lose all interest in continued party building.

Wake up dreamers, this is the Bush legacy!

I anticipate Ralph Reed working his magic in the Mid-west states which Bush lost narrowly, like Michigan and Wisconsin, and in the West. Considering that Kerry won California, Oregon and Washington by single digits, there is fertile grounds to capture those states as well.

Let those simple-minded left-wing sycophants in the media live in their fantasy world. They won't know what hit them!

22 posted on 11/15/2004 4:42:46 AM PST by HateBill (Democratic Message: "Kiss Terrorist A*s" vs. Republican Message: "Kick Terrorist A*s")
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To: goldstategop

If the GOP hadn't been winning so many elections by blowouts in the last 35 years, then I guess they would have more close elections.


23 posted on 11/15/2004 4:53:44 AM PST by TFine80 (Patton's Son: "There's no soap ever been invented that can wash that blood off his hands.")
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To: goldstategop

Historically the GOP was supposed to lose seats in 2002; we gained.
Historically the President was supposed to lose re-election due to unemployment rate; being outspent; shaky war situation etc etc.
well he proved to be the exception to the rule
lets hope that the GOP continues to make gains


24 posted on 11/15/2004 4:54:40 AM PST by DM1
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To: goldstategop

Still trying to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat...
Good, let them spend the next four years convincing themselves that a) they didn't really lose this eleectin...it was stolen, or, b) while they might have lost, it really wasn't by very much. This should make for an even BIGGER loss in 2008. Thus, repeats the Rat's cycle.
It worked for 2000-2004 period, no reason it won't work again.


25 posted on 11/15/2004 5:00:12 AM PST by Baytovin
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To: GeronL

As a loyal Bush supporter I agree that it was an extremely close election ie, Bush carried Ohio by 130k votes and without Ohio he loses the election. The GOP has to do a good job in the next two years, which won't be an easy task with some our "wussy" GOP senators.


26 posted on 11/15/2004 5:10:08 AM PST by KenmcG414
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To: Do not dub me shapka broham
Clark Kent, mild-mannered reporter:

[Thinks to self, "At least I'm only pretending. . ."]

27 posted on 11/15/2004 2:06:17 PM PST by Fedora
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To: Fedora
Hmm...

Good point.

28 posted on 11/15/2004 2:20:46 PM PST by Do not dub me shapka broham ("They don't want some high brow hussy from NYC explaining to them that they're idiots.")
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