Comparing 2004 State Results With 2000 (Bush, Kerry, Gore)

RealClearPolitics.com ^ | November 2004

[miltonim]

Comparing 2004 State Results With 2000

(The final 2004 state results may change a little.)

State		Bush 2000	Gore 2000		Bush 2004	Kerry 2004		Change for Bush
Alabama		56.48%	41.57%		62.52%	36.83%		Bush + 6.0
		941,173	692,611		1,174,985	692,186
Alaska		58.62%	27.67%		61.84%	35.04%		Bush + 3.1
		167,398	79,004		151,876	86,064
Arizona		51.02%	44.73%		54.93%	44.47%		Bush + 4.0
		781,652	685,341		908,211	735,327
Arkansas		51.31%	45.86%		54.34%	44.51%		Bush + 3.0
		472,940	422,768		566,619	464,143
California		41.65%	53.45%		44.29%	54.56%		Bush + 2.6
		4,567,429	5,861,203		4,406,033	5,428,361
Colorado		50.75%	42.39%		52.61%	46.16%		Bush + 1.9
		883,748	738,227		1,014,717	890,251
Connecticut		38.44%	55.91%		43.99%	54.29%		Bush + 5.6
		561,094	816,015		686,923	847,666
Delaware		41.90%	54.96%		44.51%	54.34%		Bush + 2.6
		137,288	180,068		171,531	199,887
Florida		48.85%	48.84%		52.22%	46.96%		Bush + 3.4
		2,912,790	2,912,253		3,888,909	3,497,541
Georgia		54.67%	42.98%		58.05%	41.39%		Bush + 3.4
		1,419,720	1,116,230		1,890,168	1,347,861
Hawaii		37.46%	55.79%		45.27%	54.01%		Bush + 7.8
		137,845	205,286		194,184	231,691
Idaho		67.17%	27.64%		68.43%	30.31%		Bush + 1.3
		336,937	138,637		408,462	180,896
Illinois		42.58%	54.60%		44.73%	54.65%		Bush + 2.2
		2,019,421	2,589,026		2,313,415	2,826,757
Indiana		56.65%	41.01%		60.07%	39.16%		Bush + 3.4
		1,245,836	901,980		1,471,519	959,157
Iowa		48.22%	48.54%		50.05%	49.11%		Bush + 1.8
		634,373	638,517		746,461	732,416
Kansas		58.04%	37.24%		62.17%	36.47%		Bush + 4.1
		622,332	399,276		717,507	420,846
Kentucky		56.50%	41.37%		59.55%	39.68%		Bush + 3.1
		872,492	638,898		1,066,736	710,858
Louisiana		52.55%	44.88%		56.77%	42.17%		Bush + 4.2
		927,871	792,344		1,101,718	818,305
Maine		43.97%	49.09%		45.01%	53.04%		Bush + 1.0
		286,616	319,951		308,997	364,153
Maryland		40.18%	56.57%		43.50%	55.35%		Bush + 3.0
		813,797	1,145,782		997,836	1,269,500
Massachusetts		32.50%	59.80%		36.95%	62.11%		Bush + 4.5
		878,502	1,616,487		1,067,163	1,793,916
Michigan		46.15%	51.28%		47.94%	51.10%		Bush + 1.8
		1,953,139	2,170,418		2,307,040	2,458,931
Minnesota		45.50%	47.90%		47.62%	51.07%		Bush + 2.1
		1,109,659	1,168,266		1,343,221	1,440,733
Mississippi		57.62%	40.70%		59.76%	39.47%		Bush + 2.1
		572,844	404,614		666,295	440,034
Missouri		50.42%	47.08%		53.36%	46.06%		Bush + 2.9
		1,189,924	1,111,138		1,452,715	1,253,879
Montana		58.44%	33.36%		59.10%	38.56%		Bush + 0.7
		240,178	137,126		265,732	173,410
Nebraska		62.24%	33.25%		66.29%	32.43%		Bush + 4.0
		433,862	231,780		499,388	244,190
Nevada		49.52%	45.98%		50.49%	47.86%		Bush + 1.0
		301,575	279,978		414,939	393,372
New Hampshire		48.07%	46.80%		48.98%	50.36%		Bush + 0.9
		273,559	266,348		331,162	340,471
New Jersey		40.29%	56.12%		46.47%	52.67%		Bush + 6.2
		1,284,173	1,788,850		1,587,494	1,799,320
New Mexico		47.85%	47.91%		50.11%	48.76%		Bush + 2.3
		286,417	286,783		355,699	346,146
New York		35.23%	60.21%		40.49%	57.76%		Bush + 5.3
		2,403,374	4,107,697		2,780,749	3,967,047
North Carolina		56.03%	43.20%		56.13%	43.52%		Bush + 0.1
		1,631,163	1,257,692		1,917,126	1,486,464
North Dakota		60.66%	33.06%		62.87%	35.49%		Bush + 2.2
		174,852	95,284		195,998	110,662
Ohio		49.97%	46.46%		50.96%	48.57%		Bush + 1.0
		2,351,209	2,186,190		2,783,655	2,653,005
Oklahoma		60.31%	38.43%		65.58%	34.42%		Bush + 5.3
		744,337	474,276		959,977	503,898
Oregon		46.52%	46.96%		47.32%	51.25%		Bush + 0.8
		713,577	720,342		812,025	879,520
Pennsylvania		46.43%	50.60%		48.62%	50.79%		Bush + 2.2
		2,281,127	2,485,967		2,754,128	2,877,256
Rhode Island		31.91%	60.99%		38.89%	59.56%		Bush + 7.0
		130,555	249,508		161,345	247,071
South Carolina		56.84%	40.90%		58.26%	40.62%		Bush + 1.4
		785,937	565,561		918,955	640,699
South Dakota		60.30%	37.56%		59.91%	38.44%		Bush - 0.4
		190,700	118,804		232,544	149,225
Tennessee		51.15%	47.28%		56.83%	42.50%		Bush + 5.7
		1,061,949	981,720		1,381,225	1,032,910
Texas		59.30%	37.98%		61.10%	38.28%		Bush + 1.8
		3,799,639	2,433,746		4,495,797	2,816,501
Utah		66.83%	26.34%		70.96%	26.50%		Bush + 4.1
		515,096	203,053		604,336	225,678
Vermont		40.70%	50.63%		38.88%	59.14%		Bush - 1.8
		119,775	149,022		120,710	183,621
Virginia		52.47%	44.44%		53.88%	45.24%		Bush + 1.4
		1,437,490	1,217,290		1,680,560	1,411,067
Washington		44.58%	50.16%		45.72%	52.81%		Bush + 1.2
		1,108,864	1,247,652		1,130,537	1,305,868
West Virginia		51.92%	45.59%		56.05%	43.25%		Bush + 4.1
		336,475	295,497		418,318	322,742
Wisconsin		47.61%	47.83%		49.33%	49.79%		Bush + 1.7
		1,237,279	1,242,987		1,468,937	1,482,583
Wyoming		67.76%	27.70%		68.98%	29.14%		Bush + 1.2
		147,947	60,481		167,404	70,709
DC		8.95%	85.16%		9.23%	89.32%		Bush + 0.3
		18,073	171,923		19,007	183,876

 

[Damifino]

After reading these numbers, what fool would suggest this year's election results questionable.

If this is a continuing trend there are some tough years ahead for the Dems... awww too bad

[southernnorthcarolina]

Note what a boost our beloved Senator Edwards gave to the Dem ticket in the South.

[bolobaby]

I am particularly fond of the Massachusetts number. Heh.

In your face, Kerry! Your long, seditious face!

[JanetteS]

From Florida:

Whoo Hooo!!!! Look at us!

[frannie]

I do this different. While Bush did pick up more votes in certain state so did Kerry.

What I did when I went through the states I compared the percentage [no total votes] change and who had a larger percentage change.

In Massachusetts even though Bush received more votes this election he received a smaller percentage of votes cast. But all in all his percentages increases were in more states than Kerry's increase over Gore's

The increase in the number of voters must be taken into consideration.

Am I being to technical?

Frannie

[alwaysconservative]

I don't know about Vermont other than the Screaming Howard Dean factor, but the only explanation for the loss of support in SD is the number of Native Americans who "turned out" (so to speak) to vote for Daschle. This is probably just a freakish blip, and SD will match the national trend next election cycle.

Can you all BELIEVE the number of idiots, though, who voted for sKerry? They may be in psychotherapy, but I've just got to laugh at their credulity and ignorance.

[frannie]

I stand corrected on Massachusetts.

Percentage difference between Bush and Gore. Gore had 26.3% more than Bush.

Kerry had only 25.16 percentage more than Bush.

Just clearing up a mistaken figure.

Frannie

[Ragnar704]

Frannie,

I think the increased number of votes cast in Mass further underscores Bush's gains in that state. That is, the closer the voter turnout is to 100%, the better reflection it is of the true preference of the voters.

Bush gained about 4.5% in MA, while the Dem Party gained about 2.3%. (Since both posted positive gains, the only explanation is that less people opted for third parties in 2004.)

Regards.

[kAcknor]

Thank you!

BTTT for future reference!

[Ragnar704]

alwaysconservative:

I share your disbelief; however, it is probably inaccurate to say that all those idiots voted FOR Kerry. My suspicion is that all those Dims voted AGAINST the Republican candidate.

I was reading some of the whining over at the DUmmy site last week. They were kicking themselves for not going with DEAN!

[WildTurkey]

Bush gained about 4.5% in MA, while the Dem Party gained about 2.3%. (Since both posted positive gains, the only explanation is that, percentage wise, less people opted for third parties in 2004.)

[frannie]

I refigured Mass. I had made a mistake. See my second reply.

But anytime the percentage difference between the party candidates we watch increase or decrease it is really all we need to watch. Regardless how many vote or how many other candidates are on the slate.

Frannie

[Soul Seeker]

Nader picked up more votes in 2000 than in 2004. I'd be interested in knowing if the defection from Nader accounts for the majority of Kerry's increases.

The reason? I'd like to determine if the Dem base actually grew substantially on the platform of ABB, or if they simply convinced Nader supporters to defect after demonizing him for daring to run in 2000.

It is clear G.W. actually grew his base as no serious contender existed in 2000 or 2004 against him.

[Redbob]

There's a continuing trend here alright:

The Dims keep running one loser after another for President.
In any rational organization, these people would have been quarantined for fear whatever infected them was contagious.

[Valin]

bump and bookmark.