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To Destroy Iranís Nuclear Bomb Program, 350 Targets Must Be Hit ^ | NOVEMBER 19, 2004 | EDITORIAL STAFF

Posted on 11/21/2004 3:38:23 PM PST by CHARLITE

No one familiar with Iran’s record of broken promises on its hidden nuclear weapons program will be surprised by the allegations leveled against Tehran this week.

On Wednesday, November 17, outgoing US secretary of state Colin Powell said to reporters during a South American tour: US has intelligence that Iran is working to adapt missiles for the delivery of nuclear weapons. “I have seen information that they not only have the missiles but are working hard to put the two together.”

The highly classified, unverified information Powell referred to was described in more detail by the Washington Post the next day: According to one official with access to the material, a “walk-in” source approached US intelligence earlier this month with more than 1,000 pages purported to be Iranian drawings and technical documents, including a nuclear warhead design and modifications to enable Iranian ballistic missiles to delivery an atomic strike. The warhead design is based on implosion and adjustments aimed at fitting the warhead on existing Iranian missiles.

DEBKAfile’s military experts believe the data referred to the Shehab-3 and its improved version, the Shehab-4.

The US official said he would not have revealed this much had not Powell alluded to the intelligence publicly. If the information is confirmed, it would mean the Islamic republic is further along than previously known in developing a nuclear weapon and the means to deliver it.

It would also mean that Tehran has been stringing along the International Atomic Energy Agency – the IAEA – and the three European powers, Britain, France and Germany, in months of negotiation. The upshot was an Iranian promise to the three, which was trumpeted this week, to suspend uranium enrichment for an indefinite period in three days time, in return for magnanimous incentives. Such promises have been made before and never last long. Three days later, on November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency – the IAEA – holds a board meeting in Vienna. It must decide whether to accept Iran’s latest promise or refer Iran’s nuclear breaches to the UN Security Council for possible sanctions.

Teheran therefore delivered its pledge in a race for time to save itself from sanctions that could threaten the Islamic republic’s regime’s survival.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly 182 just out on Friday, November 19, was the first publication to name the Nour garden suburb of Lavizan in northeast Tehran as yet another covert site Iran has concealed from the IAEA. There, not only is enrichment going forward but also tests on lethal gases and weaponized biological agents.

According to DEBKAfile’s Washington sources, the Pentagon’s most recent game model on military measures to dispose of Iran’s nuclear threat concludes it will be necessary to topple the Islamic republic’s regime at the same time.

The first stage would be a bombing mission against the regime’s primary prop, the Revolutionary Guards.

The second stage would be the destruction of known and probable nuclear sites – a much harder mission given the hundreds of sites known and unknown number and carefully camouflaged underground behind cunning window-dressing. US intelligence estimates as many as 350 sites. It does not have precise knowledge of which are the most important or even which are active.

Regime change in stage three would entail ground action.

At present, there are no air bases within range for carrying out stages two and three. Sufficient US troops for overthrowing the regime would pose a problem given Iran’s land area of four times that of Iraq.

Furthermore, there is no assurance that Iran would wait for stages 2 or even 3. Iranian agents may well pre-empt US action or retaliate by sabotage strikes or terrorist action inside America.

Co-opting Israel’s air might to the operation poses problems too. The Israelis are found to know as little about the locations of installations as the Americans. To reach Iran, Israeli warplanes would have to fly east over Saudi Arabia and Jordan, or north over Turkey. The distance of some targets, such as Iran’s nuclear sites in the Caspian Sea region, is too great for Israeli planes to make the round trip.

Notwithstanding these impediments, America cannot afford to give up its military option and must keep it afloat as a deterrent, say the authors of the Pentagon game model.

A sample out of Iran’s bag of hide-and-seek tricks with the international nuclear watchdog was exposed in DEBKA-Net-Weekly 160 on June 4, 2004:

The most secret section of the latest report the International Atomic Energy Agency’s director Mohammed ElBaradai has drafted on Iran’s nuclear program is also the most embarrassing for the international nuclear watchdog. We reveal exclusively that when inspectors arrived in Iran in mid-May and asked to revisit installations they saw in February or April, they were astonished to find empty spaces. When they questioned their Iranian escorts, they were greeted with blank stares. “What installations?” the officials asked.

The inspectors pulled out photos from previous visits and showed the Iranian officials what had been there before. The Iranians dismissed them as having been shot in other places that looked the same - or grafted there by “hostile intelligence bodies.”

When the inspectors persevered and reported the existence of aerial photos showing the exact location of the missing facilities, the Iranians shrugged.

The amazing fact is that the Iranians had dismantled and swept away all the structures containing incriminating evidence of continuing uranium enrichment for weapons production so completely that there was no sign a building had ever stood there. The fresh flowerbeds were still in the same places as before but lawns had been extended to cover the sites, most probably with thick layers of earth. All the inspectors could do was to remove soil samples and take them away.

According to our sources, US officials involved in the Iranian nuclear issue have no doubt that the installations were not destroyed but removed to secret subterranean sites probably built under military bases scattered around the country and that the Iranians are industriously advancing their forbidden programs.

Five months later, we have discovered one of those clandestine destinations to be the Nour “nuclear suburb” of Tehran.

TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Government; Israel; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: colinpowell; hidingplaces; iaea; inspections; installations; iran; irannukes; napalminthemorning; nuclear; religionofpeace; suburbs; tehran; wot

1 posted on 11/21/2004 3:38:24 PM PST by CHARLITE
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Ok. Could we just one really really really big bomb and basically center it ?

If need be we can do it the hard way........

2 posted on 11/21/2004 3:40:53 PM PST by festus (Old growth timbers make the best campfires....)
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Comment #3 Removed by Moderator


No, you don't have to destroy all 350 targets. You only have to destroy a few key targets to disrupt the whole process.

4 posted on 11/21/2004 3:43:55 PM PST by Blood of Tyrants (God is not a Republican. But Satan is definitely a Democrat.)
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Comment #5 Removed by Moderator


Wrong. Destroy parliment with the bastards in session. Wipe out the government and the mullahs fall!

6 posted on 11/21/2004 3:50:37 PM PST by Bommer
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What a crock! What ever happened to refueling in air and remember how we brought Japan to their knees, we need to do it again, before it is done to us.

7 posted on 11/21/2004 3:50:44 PM PST by lolhelp
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To: lolhelp

Yea, we nuked the Japanese, and now they are an excellent country. History is on our side. lol

8 posted on 11/21/2004 4:01:06 PM PST by kizzdogg
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To: Blood of Tyrants

I wonder how many of these targets are decoys though.

9 posted on 11/21/2004 4:03:56 PM PST by dr_who_2
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Looks like we'd better get busy.

10 posted on 11/21/2004 4:04:23 PM PST by hershey
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Noting to worry about. The EU will quickly ratify whatever Iran has put in front of them, both for their penchant for appeasement as well as teir desire to try to make the US look bad ("See----negotiations work!!!!). Iran will then be free to continue on their path to nukes, likely succeeding within 6 months.
11 posted on 11/21/2004 4:07:07 PM PST by waterman478
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So, we do a hundred this week, a hundred next week, etc. What're they gonna do? Invade us?

12 posted on 11/21/2004 4:09:25 PM PST by zook
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To: ZellsBells
There's another issue. If the Iranian government falls without a US occupation, then certain elements in the regime might try to smuggle components out of Iran to parts unknown. If the Iranian government doesn't fall, they may try the same thing. Even if the US was to invade the country, they may have the same smuggling problems that they encountered in Iraq, only far more serious because we know even less about Iran's WMD's than we did about those in Iraq, a country that has been partially occupied by us since '91.

On the up side, Israel may have much better intelligence than us (assuming that they haven't already shared it with us).

In any case, it's crunch time for the Bush administration, our military is going to perform some miracles, and the rest of the government and the world needs to be more ready for trouble than they are now. Otherwise, we'll be searching for ways to "contain" Iran for years to come.
13 posted on 11/21/2004 4:15:48 PM PST by dr_who_2
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alot of these facilities are underground, in hardened bunkers, I don't think they can be penetrated with conventional, even bunker-buster, bombs.

14 posted on 11/21/2004 4:17:57 PM PST by oceanview
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To: zook

iran has a decent military. they could launch missiles, they could close the persian gulf to shipping, etc.

15 posted on 11/21/2004 4:18:46 PM PST by oceanview
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To: zook
What're they gonna do? Invade us?

What will the rest of the muslim world do? What future terrorist attacks will be perpetrated directly/indirectly by Iran if the US fails to disable them?
16 posted on 11/21/2004 4:18:53 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: waterman478

If the EU is that stupid, I hope Iran nukes them first.

17 posted on 11/21/2004 4:19:57 PM PST by dr_who_2
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Comment #18 Removed by Moderator

To: ZellsBells

Tricky, that. I guess there must be a limit to the Iranian regime's shadow army, since they're supposedly relying on foreign mercenaries to keep their population down. Another thing to worry about is how many terrorist elements that they have deployed in other parts of the world.

19 posted on 11/21/2004 4:33:00 PM PST by dr_who_2
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To: oceanview

I'd like to see those bunkers stand up to our nuclear-tipped bunker-busters.

20 posted on 11/21/2004 4:37:03 PM PST by Terpfen (Gore/Sharpton '08: it's Al-right!)
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Its Debka.


21 posted on 11/21/2004 4:40:33 PM PST by asgardshill (November 2004 - The Month That Just Kept On Giving)
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To: Terpfen

you know we would never use those pre-emptively.

22 posted on 11/21/2004 4:42:54 PM PST by oceanview
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To: ZellsBells

we should be funding our own insurgency in iran.

23 posted on 11/21/2004 4:43:45 PM PST by oceanview
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Comment #24 Removed by Moderator

Comment #25 Removed by Moderator


20 - B-2's x 16 2000lb JDAM = 320 targets
Seems like a couple of days could do it, if we used a mix.

Of course, we won't do it. Israel will. We just have to agree not to stop them from doing what needs doing, and perhaps defend them from the EU in the aftermath.

26 posted on 11/21/2004 5:02:56 PM PST by RFEngineer
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To: oceanview

I'm not so sure about that. Bush hasn't taken the option off the table.

Regardless, I was just saying that I don't think these bunkers are as uncrackable as they're made out to be.

27 posted on 11/21/2004 5:08:06 PM PST by Terpfen (Gore/Sharpton '08: it's Al-right!)
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To: Terpfen

to conventional weapons? they are. the discovery channel did a show on the iraqi bunkers after the war, with tours of them accompanied by US forces. even after being hit with bunker busters, the most damage was that some doors would not close squarely on the hinges. the eastern european nations have perfected concrete and steel re-enforced bunkers.

28 posted on 11/21/2004 5:11:19 PM PST by oceanview
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To: oceanview

That's why Bush has left the nuclear option on the table.

29 posted on 11/21/2004 5:12:25 PM PST by Terpfen (Gore/Sharpton '08: it's Al-right!)
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Have to agree with those who say a few select targets will suffice. Right now we have to ask, "Can we trust our Intelligence"? I would bet the Israeli's have better Intel, and hopefully shared it with us. I did note in some other publication that these strikes were beyond the "round" trip range of the Israeli AF. Somehow, I think they could land at Baghdad with impunity if the US didn't provide air refueling capability.
30 posted on 11/21/2004 5:13:18 PM PST by -=Wing_0_Walker=-
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To: Terpfen

I'm not sure what the threshold would be for us to act pre-emtpively. perhaps if we had intercepts that they were passing these off to AQ.

31 posted on 11/21/2004 5:15:37 PM PST by oceanview
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350? lolololololololol

32 posted on 11/21/2004 5:15:54 PM PST by Psycho_Bunny (ďI know a great deal about the Middle East because Iíve been raising Arabian horses" Patrick Swazey)
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To: festus
Ok. Could we just one really really really big bomb and basically center it?

festus: I do like the way you think! Sometimes the best, most effective things in life are darn simple.

33 posted on 11/21/2004 8:41:17 PM PST by lainde
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To: All


There is no need to destroy 350 targets (and I believe there is more than 350)!
All you need is to destroy the important targets, such that will delay they program in lets say 10 years- enough time to change the regime in Iran.

IAF bombed the Osiraq nuclear reactor in Baghdad, Iraq in 1981 as the main target, however there were other targets who werent important.
In the case of Iran there are some important reactors and sites who need to be destroyed.

34 posted on 11/21/2004 9:40:16 PM PST by IAF ThunderPilot (Israeli Defence Forces)
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To: All

And fellows, lets dont forget that not only air attacks are taking into account :)

35 posted on 11/21/2004 9:41:47 PM PST by IAF ThunderPilot (Israeli Defence Forces)
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To: zook
So, we do a hundred this week, a hundred next week, etc. What're they gonna do? Invade us?

Waiting is deadly, that is why the new missile stirs things up so. The old ones can reach Israel, the new ones can reach Europe, Iran is making a nuclear power play, not just to kill the Jews, but to kill the West. The presence of enriched plutonium means they are making H-Bombs not A-bombs. A bombs could wipe out tiny Israel or troops, but it will take H-Bombs to take out modern European Cities. This clearly indicates that they intend to engage the world in full scale nuclear war. The only question is how to stop it with the least loss of life knowing that when they reach their goal Millions will die.

While I have no doubt that Israel can set their efforts back a long ways they will just rebuild from spot strikes. The scary part is that it take A-bombs to be triggers for H-Bombs. The obvious indication is that they have nukes now. You do not waste your time making enrich plutonium unless you have solved the trigger problem. No this tiger has teeth and is obviously trying to be a saber tooth.

36 posted on 11/21/2004 10:06:07 PM PST by American in Israel (A wise man's heart directs him to the right, but the foolish mans heart directs him toward the left.)
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