Interesting developments for Iran in the international atomic energy agency in the last new cycle. If Iran can't use their 20 or so centrifuges, and even if they are not refer to the UN Security Council, they will be in quite a bind. They do have the option of running the centrifuges anyway, and hoping that the world will just ignore their threat.Which I do not think will happen.The Israeliscannot change the Iranian regime, but they can make life very unpleasant for them. And I do not believe that the Bush administration will allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.but bombing their nuclear installations is not the end answer. They will rebuild their nuclear installations eventually. The only real solution is regime change. And regime change in Iran is the only way we can win in Iraq.
I've always imagined that we are going to do this while being opposed by Europe and the United Nations.if Iran gets referred back to the UN Security Council today, then I think Iran is finished.
Without Europe, there is no good solution. But it must be done, no matter what the cost. It is kind of interesting war gaming Iran, as opposed to Iraq. In Iraq, it was just a matter of how much force we're going to apply. There was no question that we would win. But in Iran, an Iraq style military siege is neither possible, and even if it was, it would be a catastrophe, 100 times worse than Iraq.
There is also the option of the Iranian people rising up against the regime. I have no doubt that they would be successful - but I do not believe it would happen soon enough. We only had a few months to work with, not a couple of years. There are also no militant groups in Iran that we could work with, unlike the Northern alliance in Afghanistan.
The most promising option, a naval blockade and near worldwide refusal to buy their oil,would still depend on the Iranian people rising up, for the most part If Europe does not go along with us, I do not see how it can work.
I think that in the end, we will see some sort of military action. Hopefully, in the form of small special forces units. We need to secure the nuclear installations, and also to help restore order after the fall of the regime.
I think the surefire way of getting the regime out of power is to engage in thousands of air strikes on critical targets of the regime. But there'll still be three questions and issues still need to be resolved: securing the nuclear installations, establishing peace and order, and neutralizing the remaining regime elements and terrorist organizations (Iran is the headquarters of terrorism; they're not going down without a fight).
So basically, it boils down to this: it ain't going to be pretty, it probably going to be very ugly, but it absolutely must be done. If Iran gets nuclear weapons, it will be only a matter of time before Al Qaeda gets nuclear weapons as well. This is just like it was before World War II. Are we going to be Churchill or Chamberlain this time?