EU-Russia divide boils to surface

The Globe and Mail ^ | Nov 26, 2004 | Doug Saunders

[FairOpinion]

Trying to educate the naive is a thankless task, but I keep trying...

"EASTERN REACTION

But there was a different message from Russian-speaking eastern regions which account for Ukraine's economic muscle and mainly back Yanukovich.

In the big coal mining center of Donetsk, a group of regional deputies threatened to hold a referendum on autonomy if Yushchenko succeeded in overturning Yanukovich's election.

"We can live without that half (of the population). But can they live without us?," said Donetsk mayor Alexander Lukyanchenko."


http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml;jsessionid=APPN0D0VWXX0ECRBAEKSFFA?type=topNews&storyID=6931590&pageNumber=0

(above quote is on page 2 & 3)

[Lukasz]

The French led EU

Forget about French and German axis leading the EU. That is history. Now they cannot do it, simply because they don’t have enough votes. With Romania and Bulgaria joining in 2007, their influences will be even smaller. Beside that it is some kind of joke calling France seriously as an enemy.

The Russians at least we can bargain with.

You can bargain even with North Korea if you have good arguments.

[cicero's_son]

Trying to educate the naive is a thankless task, but I keep trying."

I wonder who you could be referring to, here? Senator Lugar? Colin Powell, maybe? The OSCE? The Polish government? The Canadians...

President Bush?

There sure a lot of us naive people out there, FairOpinion. I don't know how you do it! LOL.

[Tailgunner Joe]

What? I thought the Solomonic Yanukovych would rather give up the nation than see it dismembered. You mean to tell me that was just hollow posturing? How disillusioning.

[cicero's_son]

On a more serious note, it is beginning to appear that partition is inevitable. This is what Russia wants. The Europeans can live with it.

The only question is: what do the Ukrainians think?

Personally, I think that most Ukrainians--even those in the Russian east, would prefer to join the rising tide of Europe than sink back into Russo-Asiatic torpor.

If Yuschenko is genuine (i.e., not a Russian plant or a European plant, but a Ukrainian patriot), he will put this question to the people early in his term.

What Kuchma/Putin are trying to do is decide it NOW, in the heat of this bubbling civil confict. IF they succeed, then the Ukraine will indeed be split between East and West, and all Ukrainians will be the worse for it.

[FairOpinion]

You should pay careful attention to what people say.

President Bush was very careful with his statement and earlier White House press releases were carefully worded as well.

Powell, on the other hand, made statements, which can be interpreted as a direct challenge to Russia, a very poor idea.

Here is a transcript to Bush's statement earlier today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041126/nyf055_1.html

[cicero's_son]

Time will tell, FairOpinion, tiome will tell.

Tell you what, I'll make a deal with you: If Bush comes down on the side Yanukovich/Kuchma/Putin, I won't post a single word about this confict again. If, on the other hand, Bush supports the opposition, you'll do the same.

What do you think?

[jimbo123]

Ever heard of good-cop, bad cop?

Bush:

"There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud that placed their election -- the validity of their elections in doubt. The international community is watching very carefully. People are paying very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government."

Powell:

"We cannot accept this result as legitimate because it does not meet international standards and because there has not been an investigation of the numerous and credible reports of fraud and abuse"

[Lukasz]

In the big coal mining center of Donetsk, a group of regional deputies threatened to hold a referendum on autonomy if Yushchenko succeeded in overturning Yanukovich's election.

"We can live without that half (of the population). But can they live without us?," said Donetsk mayor Alexander Lukyanchenko."

Colliers thinks that others half needs them so much?! In Poland situation is completely different, cause many coal mines are unprofitable. In the Ukraine coal mines are profitable?

btw Alexander Lukyanchenko?! Damn Luka he is everywhere.

[cicero's_son]

FairOpinion is not stupid. He knows perfectly well where the administration stands on this.

What I don't understand is why he is so keen to promote Russian interests.

[monkeywrench]

"France is a major pain in the a$$, but they are not a major threat like Russia. France and Germany are also not the entire EU, although they are the two most influential members"

France is a haven for terrorists and dictators. Everyone from Mugabee to Ghadafi to arafat is at home there. Why? France is a threat whether you recognize it or not.

I'll trust the administration on this, "Punish France. Ignore Germany. Forgive Russia."-Condi Rice

[jimbo123]

Fair Opinion might be a muzzie who is supportive of Russia's agreement to supply Iran with nuclear fuel for the Russian-built Bushehr reactor. Someone who wants Iran to get the bomb.

[cicero's_son]

I'll trust the administration on this...

So will you trust the administration on the Ukraine, as well? See Colin Powell and President Bush's statements.

[cicero's_son]

Who knows. That's the beauty of the Internet...you have to argue the facts, not the person.

[monkeywrench]

Where's the Presidents statement? I missed it. Colin Powell? No.

[jimbo123]

Bush:

"There's just a lot of allegations of vote fraud that placed their election -- the validity of their elections in doubt. The international community is watching very carefully. People are paying very close attention to this, and hopefully it will be resolved in a way that brings credit and confidence to the Ukrainian government."

[monkeywrench]

Thank you. Yes, I can back that. I still think neither guy is a good deal for the country, only for outside political interests.

[cicero's_son]

I still think neither guy is a good deal for the country, only for outside political interests.

I fear you may be right.

Best possible outcome: a free and independent Ukraine applying for membership into the EU. It is hard to see how that might happen.

Worst possible outcome: A subjugated Ukraine devolving into a Russian vassal-state, a la Belarus.

Likeliest outcome: A "negotiated settlement" that puts Yuschenko in control of the national government, with the Kremlin's designate controlling a semi-autonomous East. This would lead inevitably to partition into two states.

[Johnnyboy2000]

'I'll trust the administration on this, "Punish France. Ignore Germany. Forgive Russia."-Condi Rice'

"France is a haven for terrorists and dictators. Everyone from Mugabee to Ghadafi to arafat is at home there. Why? France is a threat whether you recognize it or not."


I wish I didn't see this. Did Rice really say this? Should we forgive them when their nuclear equipment help Iran produce a bomb that ends up in D.C. or NYC. I think not. France is not a threat. I don't share your fear of the French. I am no major fan of France's policies, but they don't seem to constitute a threat, especially no in comparison to the world's greates proliferator of weapons, Russia. I'm not sure if France is exactly a haven for terrorists either. They have some problems with their muslim population there, but I don't think there are any terror camps in France.

[FairOpinion]

This is not good cop, bad cop, this is Powell being a loose cannon, undermining Bush's carefully cultivated relationship with Putin. Putin has always been representing the EU, instead of the US. I can't wait for him to go.


"The incoming Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, is a Russian expert and an architect of Mr. Bush's pro-Putin tilt. "

http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB110142533278883805,00.html?mod=opinion%5Fmain%5Freview%5Fand%5Foutlooks