Hong Kong May Restrict Bird Slaughter to Combat Flu

Reuters Wire Service ^ | 11/28/04 | Reuters

[pandemic_1918]

Sun Nov 28, 2004 10:37 PM ET

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Hong Kong said on Monday it may ban shopkeepers slaughtering poultry after world health experts issued strong warnings that the deadly bird flu virus may trigger the next pandemic. Hong Kong scientists have been fighting to end the widespread practice of killing live chickens in markets since 1997, when the H5N1 virus first spread to humans and killed six people in the territory.

But strong opposition from the poultry industry has prevented the government from stopping stall holders from selling live chickens and ducks and slaughtering them in front of customers.

The virus emerged again in Asia this year, killing 32 people in Thailand and Vietnam and decimating poultry flocks.....

"It's hard to make a vaccine with a new disease ... because the virus will change and the vaccine may not match one that is (transmissable from) human to human," the minister said in an interview with government-funded Radio and Television Hong Kong.

"Vaccines only offer 5 percent protection going by past pandemics ... we can't rely totally on vaccines."

[pandemic_1918]

Hong Kong taking drastic action to try to head off massive avian flu pandemic. Article lists concerns about reliance on vaccine.

[pandemic_1918]

>>"It's hard to make a vaccine with a new disease ... because the virus will change and the vaccine may not match one that is (transmissable from) human to human,"<<

Flu viruses evolve by well defined set of rules

http://www.recombinomics.com/viral_evolution.html

which allow for prediction of future vaccines

http://www.recombinomics.com/vaccine_development.html

[datura]

There has been a constant, yet barely audible mumbling by various media and governmental agencies that points to a coming pandemic - possibly this year.

I don't know how much stock to put into these veiled warnings, and I also notice that there is always a disclaimer of sorts relieving the government of any wrongdoings. It seems as though if this were the year, it would've already started.

I don't think very many people have any idea what a pandemic would be like - I know I don't. Stay isolated to stay alive.

[USNBandit]

One of the big problems Hong Kong will have is the proximity of live and unprocessed birds with the public. In Hong Kong you can literally walk into a street front shop, pick out a live chicken, and have it wacked and processed for you. It doesn't allow for separation between the public and live poultry, or for health inspections prior to consumption.

[pandemic_1918]

>>It seems as though if this were the year, it would've already started. <<

Maybe it has

http://www.recombinomics.com/flu_laos_cambodia.html

[pandemic_1918]

>>In Hong Kong you can literally walk into a street front shop, pick out a live chicken, and have it wacked and processed for you.<<

This may be limited.

[pandemic_1918]

>>It seems as though if this were the year, it would've already started. <<

A pandemic virus with a high case mortality rate

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_case_mortality_rate.html

and human to human transmission

http://www.recombinomics.com/human_human_probable.html

will probably involve more recombinations

http://www.recombinomics.com/H5N1_reassort_recombine.html

that may just involve other birds that I migrating into southeast Asia

http://www.recombinomics.com/wild_H5N1.html

It may take weeks or months for such a recombinant to emerge.