Louisiana Runoff Open Thread

[watsonfellow]

Thougths, comments, concerns?

One thought I have, if Tauzin III loses, he should be shot. If he wins, he should be given the worst possible committee assignment.

[Republican Wildcat]

I wish I could say I'm optimistic...but the last two times we've had one of these threads it wasn't a great night.

[dogbyte12]

I would like to kill him and his father right now. So far today, I have gotten 3 pre-recorded calls from his dad telling me to vote. Over the past week, I have gotten about 20 calls telling me to vote, and about 10 telling me Melancon is a Clymer.

Don't they check people off? Or are they just going through the phone book multiple times. I don't mind one or two calls, but they are killing us down here with the telephone calls, and the non stop ads.

[Republican Wildcat]

One question -- is Orleans Parish involved in any of these races?

[dogbyte12]

Election Results Page

This should go live around 8PM CST.

[Kuksool]

If Republicans fail to win both the La-07 and La-03, expect tomorrow's headlines to say that Bush has no mandate and RATS can win in the Red Zone (despite the fact that both RATS claim to be pro-life).

[Kuksool]

Nope. The La-07 and La-03 are Cajun Country.

[watsonfellow]

Tauzin is a young creep...he basically called Craig Romero, a staunch Catholic and social conservative, a "sodomite" for missing a vote on a gay issue in the state legislature..........had he not run that ad, the run off would have been between two Republicans.......He is a little punk who has had no experience in anything (unlike Bobby Jindal).

His Democrat opponent is a pro-lifer, and so just this once, I hope the Democrat wins.

I am hoping Dr. Boustaney pulls it out though!

[CholeraJoe]

I knew Charles Boustany when I lived in LA. He is a fine man and an excellent surgeon. Congress needs more like him.

[abb]

boustany has it in the bag... tauzin race may be close, tho

[watsonfellow]

Never mind...I take back what I previously wrote...apparently Romero endorsed Kathleen Blanco over Jindal last year, so he appears to be a RINO and a loser. I now support Tauzin...go Billy, go! har har har

[K1avg]

Boustany will win big (think 10+%), Tauzin by a slightly smaller margin.

[deport]

CD 7 is to the west......

[Kuksool]

Ping!

Here's the last federal election for the year.

[deport]

From the Lake Charles area..... KPLC tv

Voter Turnout Slows to a Trickle

December 4, 2004
Reported by Rhonda Kitchens

After month's of campaigning, the journey is almost over for the 7th District Congressional seat, but this important election won't be pulling in a big voter turnout.

Angela Wubben: "This morning it was really slow and this afternoon it picked up a little bit. We're at probably around 13 to 15 percent." Much lower than the Presidential election, one month ago.

So why is the turnout so low? Bennie Burnett says, "I don't know. It's hard to say really. I guess there's really no concern or a lot of people just don't care anymore." Voter Patrice Mallet says, "I think our Christmas parade is today, and I think a lot of people have gone out to that. But hopefully as the day passes more people will come out." Angela Wubben has her thoughts on the low turnout. "I don't know. I think maybe people have really busy lives but it's really important. We should come out and vote. It's our duty to our country."

One thing is for certain, voters are glad to see an end to this bitter campaign. Bennie Burnett:"I am for one. I mean I think it's prolonged a little too much. And I think it's gotten out of hand with the ads and everything." Mallet says, "I think we'll all be happy once this is all over and we can get back to normal. We can move forward."

[theriotcat]

Sweating Tauzin here in St.Martin. If we win these districts how many demorats will Louisiana be sending to DC?

[California Patriot]

Why did the vaunted 2004 Republican turnout machine
go to sleep? If we're serious about politics, we can't shrug off these special elections just because they're inconvenient.

[watsonfellow]

If we win both 6-1.

If we win one. 5-2.

If lose both. 4-3.

[theriotcat]

If we win it will 6-2 (senate)

[theriotcat]

Sorry will be 7-2

[watsonfellow]

Louisiana has seven house seats.

As of now, the Republicans hold four.

First District, Jindal
Fourth District, McCreary
Fifth District, Alexander
Sixth District, Baker.

The Democrats have one.
Second District, Jefferson.

There are two seats up tonight (the third and seventh districts)...

IF the Republicans win both, it will be 6-1.

If the Republicans win one, it will be 5-2.

If the Republicans lose both, it will be 4-3.

I am talking House Delegation.

In the Senate, there is one Dem (Landrieu) and one new Republican (Vitter).

[Mister Baredog]

If Republicans fail to win both the La-07 and La-03, expect tomorrow's headlines to say that Bush has no mandate and RATS can win in the Red Zone (despite the fact that both RATS claim to be pro-life).

Should we be prepared for a Pelosi gloat-fest? UNNGH.

[watsonfellow]

Counting House and Senate from Louisiana.

IF we win both seats tonight, it will be 7-2.

If we win one seat, it will be 6-3.

If we lose both, it will be 5-4

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

If we win both, all that'll be left, as far as House seats go, is Bill Jefferson in New Orleans, which is not winnable for us anyway.

I haven't heard any polls in these races lately so I have no idea which way they'll go, though I do think Boustany will win.

[StJacques]

I just put up a second post on the turnout which is low.

You can view it here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1294570/posts

[watsonfellow]

I think Tauzin will lose but Boustaney will win, what do you think?

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I'm thinking the same thing, though I hope I'm wrong.

[Kuksool]

A victory by the RATS in LA would prove in the minds of DUmmies that Bush really did steal Ohio. LOL!

[JohnnyZ]

I'll go ahead and call for a GOP sweep

Tauzin 52
Melancon 48

Boustany 56
Mount 44

[Kuksool]

The fight for the La-03 sounds a lot like runoff for the La-07 2 years ago. Two Republican candidate backstabbing each other while giving the RAT a free pass.

[theriotcat]

Louisiana has a recent history of posting results very fast.
By 8:30 CT we should have a good indication of the outcome.

[conservative_2001]

On Polipundit KQQL is reporting the early exit poll has Tauzin winning 53-47. Of course, who knows how accurate those are.

I do think Boustany wins, while the Tauzin race will be close. I think he'll pull through, but if given the chance I'd decline to put any money behind it.

[JohnnyZ]

the early exit poll has Tauzin winning 53-47. Of course, who knows how accurate those are.

It's in line with my prediction (52-48) so it's probably accurate.

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

I see some numbers coming in on the website...looks like it's starting.

[StJacques]

"I think Tauzin will lose but Boustaney will win, what do you think?"

If I'm pushed to the wall to make a prediction on both I say it's a Republican sweep. But I am much more confident about Boustany's chances than I am about Tauzin's.

I think Boutany will win because the Democrats are in disarray due to Don Cravins' anger over the way the state Democratic party organization got behind Mount in the general primary, which will depress the African-American vote in the 7th, which should put Boustany over the top.

In Tauzin's case, he really angered a number of Republicans and Republican-minded voters in Iberia Parish with his treatment of Romero in the general primary. And Melancon has started to beat the sugar cane drum, as did both Landrieu and Blanco before him, throughout the district, a tactic that does not bode well for Republicans, though I think Tauzin should overcome some of that due to his father's excellent standing with the sugar industry.

Boustany 53.5 Mount 46.5

Tauzin 50.75 Melancon 49.25

That's as close as I can come to a prediction.

[LibSnubber]

"I knew Charles Boustany when I lived in LA. He is a fine man and an excellent surgeon. Congress needs more like him."

Hubby and I went to vote today (both of us of course voted for Dr. Boustany). The polling place was empty - in and out in 2 minutes... But I still have a good feeling about his chances!

[Deetes]

Starting to come in now...

[dogbyte12]

Tauzin 165 votes, Melancon 181.

Very early numbers. LOL

[StJacques]

I'm putting up a link for the official returns for the races from the Louisiana Secretary of State's Office. This is a "pop up" link you can open without leaving this page.

Louisiana Secretary of State Official Election Returns, 12/04/2004

The votes at the far left are the actual vote returns, then the percentage split, then the names. You can read the precincts reporting at the top of the stats.

[LibSnubber]

I'll go ahead and call for a GOP sweep

Tauzin 52
Melancon 48

Boustany 56
Mount 44

I like the way you think! I'm with you.

[JohnnyZ]

WE'RE WINNING BOTH BIG! (Stop the counting!)

[JohnnyZ]

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District 
6 of 573 precincts reporting 
Results by Parish will be available later this evening 
1,067 48% "Charlie" Melancon, D  -  
1,170 52% W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R  -  

U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 
13 of 558 precincts reporting 
Results by Parish will be available later this evening 
1,570 56% Charles Boustany, Jr., R  -  
1,234 44% Willie Landry Mount, D  

I WAS EXACTLY RIGHT!

[Galactic Overlord-In-Chief]

Don't you wish you had a nice, big button to press to do just that, just when it gets good? LOL

[deport]

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District 28 of 573 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
3,680	53%	"Charlie" Melancon, D	-
3,267	47%	W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R	-
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 25 of 558 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
2,142	56%	Charles Boustany, Jr., R	-
1,687	44%	Willie Landry Mount, D	-

[LibSnubber]

You had to have cheated! (BIG LOL)

[deport]

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District 36 of 573 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
4,771	54%	"Charlie" Melancon, D	-
4,081	46%	W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R	-
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 32 of 558 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
2,504	54%	Charles Boustany, Jr., R	-
2,125	46%	Willie Landry Mount, D	-

[watsonfellow]

Tauzin is getting whalloped!

[deport]

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District 45 of 573 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
5,807	53%	"Charlie" Melancon, D	-
5,252	47%	W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R	-
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 34 of 558 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
2,654	53%	Charles Boustany, Jr., R	-
2,319	47%	Willie Landry Mount, D	-

[CedarDave]

If Tauzin loses, expect the MSM to highlight it on every newscast for the next 24 hours. If he win, nary a mention.

[deport]

U. S. Representative, 3rd Congressional District 58 of 573 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
7,033	53%	"Charlie" Melancon, D	-
6,163	47%	W.J. "Billy" Tauzin, III, R	-
U. S. Representative, 7th Congressional District 38 of 558 precincts reporting Results by Parish will be available later this evening
3,528	54%	Charles Boustany, Jr., R	-
2,998	46%	Willie Landry Mount, D	-