Beijing's Sigh of Relief

Stratfor

[PrinceMarko]

Beijing's Sigh of Relief

By Rodger Baker

With much attention focused on the presidential run-off in Ukraine, another political scandal played out over the weekend in the tiny Pacific island nation of Vanuatu. Serge Vohor, Vanuatu's prime minister for just four months, was removed from office by a parliamentary vote of no confidence after he stirred controversy by briefly -- and unilaterally -- establishing diplomatic relations with Taipei. The move, which effectively ended the island nation's ties with Beijing, was reversed by Vanuatu's Council of Ministers, and Vohor was voted out of office shortly thereafter.

While the seemingly endless battle between China and Taiwan for recognition by small and usually poor Pacific and Central American nations may seem insignificant, the mini-crisis occurred during the Taiwanese parliamentary election. That election was widely expected to produce a fairly substantial victory for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), a pro-independence party led by Prime Minister Chen Shui-bian. But instead, it resulted in a near maintenance of the status quo -- something the DPP blamed in part on the Vanuatu crisis.

The Pan-Green alliance, which includes the DPP and the even more pro-independence Taiwan Solidarity Union, gained just one seat in Parliament overall, while the Pan-Blue coalition -- made up of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), the offshoot People's First Party (PFP) and the smaller New Party -- lost one seat overall but maintained its slim majority. The outcome, portrayed as a rejection of the DPP, was less a reversal of the steady shift toward Taiwanese nationalism and more a sign of voter apathy, with a relatively low turnout of just over 59 percent.

The vote will allow leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait to take a breather in what had been several months of rising tensions over weapons procurement plans and talk of a Taiwanese referendum that could have led eventually toward a vote for formal independence. But it was officials in Beijing who were most relieved by the outcome. Beijing has had a difficult time with Chen, who, while himself not a virulent supporter of Taiwanese independence, has played off the rising sentiments inside Taiwan for political gain.

Chen's recent re-election as president was already a cause for consternation in Beijing, since he has pressed for the use of the name Taiwan on documents and products -- shying away from the traditional Republic of China (ROC) name. Chen also has overseen plans for massive weapons purchases by Taipei, as well as plans to make referenda a standard practice in Taiwan, something that eventually could be used to call for a formal vote on independence from China.

Beijing has learned that its former strategy of threatening Taipei at times of elections backfires more often than not; hence Chen's initial election in 2000. But Beijing also has staked much of its propaganda credentials on threats to resist any moves toward independence by Taiwan -- but whether China has the ability or will to follow through on the threats is open to question.

As Beijing struggles to balance its economic opening and reform with changes in the social contract with the workers, it has consistently relied on nationalistic rhetoric and actions to rally the people and maintain control. Calls to reclaim Taiwan are integral to this strategy, and many Chinese students will readily back threats and warnings against Taiwanese independence moves. But nationalistic rhetoric -- whether against Taiwan or a celebration of Vanuatu's resumption of recognition -- will do little to assuage Chinese unemployment, regional economic inequalities and fundamental weaknesses in the banking sector and state-owned enterprises.

And this is China's Achilles' heel. Beijing's growing economic might rests atop a tenuous foundation, and the Communist Party has traded its revolutionary and moral right to leadership for a right based on seemingly unending economic growth. But like Japan, South Korea and the Southeast Asian tigers, China will find its growth curve is anything but linear. With the Taiwanese election results in, however, this is an eventuality Beijing now has more time to plan for, rather than worrying about a more immediate challenge from Taipei.