Kerry, Hillary would beat Jeb, Frist, and Pataki in 2008

Centre for Public Opinion and Democracy ^ | Dec. 20, 2004

[DaveDCMetro]

Kerry Would Beat (Jeb) Bush In 2008

(Angus Reid Consultants - CPOD Global Scan) – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could win the presidency in 2008, according to a poll by Opinion Dynamics released by Fox News. 45 per cent of respondents would vote for the 2004 Democratic nominee in a head-to-head contest against Republican Florida governor Jeb Bush.

In other prospective elections, New York senator and former first lady Hillary Rodham Clinton leads three Republicans: Florida’s Bush, Tennessee senator Bill Frist and New York governor George Pataki.

Rodham Clinton was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2000, defeating Republican Rick Lazio by 12 per cent. She ruled out a presidential bid in 2004.

Other high-profile Republicans who may run for office in 2008—such as former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona senator John McCain—were not included in the survey. Current president George W. Bush is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term in office.

Polling Data

Thinking ahead to the next presidential election, if the 2008 presidential election were held today and the candidates were (insert choices here), for whom would you vote?

John Kerry (D) 45% - 37% Jeb Bush (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 40% - 33% Bill Frist (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 41% - 35% George Pataki (R) Hillary Rodham Clinton (D) 46% - 35% Jeb Bush (R)

Source: Opinion Dynamics / Fox News Methodology: Telephone interviews to 900 American registered voters, conducted on Dec. 14 and Dec. 15, 2004. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

[DaveDCMetro]

Make sure to take a careful look at the polling matchups in the article. Hillary and Kerry are only polling in the 40s, but they're winning because Jeb, Frist, and Pataki are stuck in the 30s. Nominating one of these guys would NOT be good. Thoughts?

[Puppage]

Kerry Would Beat...

sKerry couldn't beat a...

[Conspiracy Guy]

Same poll showed Kerry would when on Nov 2, 2004, and none of the Republicans listed will run. Next question.

[areafiftyone]

She may be able to beat Frist and Jeb Bush but she will not be able to beat Rudy Guiliani. He was not even mentioned in this poll.

[nanak]

Jeb/Frist/Pataki = Certified RINOs

[Damifino]

I guess this means we are still in love with polling.. enjoy it.

[Conspiracy Guy]

When = win.

[jwalsh07]

The Fox poll ranks right down there with Zogby. They were awful in the last cycle.

[nanak]

Jeb/Frist/Pataki = Certified Illegelae Alieno Loving RINOs

[small voice in the wilderness]

..Thoughts?...I'm thinking of opening a toast stand next summer. Thoughts?

[isthisnickcool]

George W. Bush is stupid. George W. Bush can't win. Kerry way ahead in exit polls.

Don't believe everything you read......

[KC_Conspirator]

Its 4 years away.

[cotton1706]

Thanks, John but it's irrelevent. None of these three will be the nominee in '08. Frist is a wortless Senator like yourself. Pataki is the second coming of Nelson Rockefeller (and we don't need a leader of a Democratic state, thank you very much). And Jeb Bush will not run and the American people will give one family national power for only so long.

[Numbers Guy]

Meaningless polls. They're matching up two Democrats with very high name recognition against three Republicans, two of whom have low national name recognition. And the one who has name recognition, Jeb, has to deal with Bush fatigue.

[OpusatFR]

My thoughts are that the media is in search of, and creating a story rather than actually do the hard work of analysis and investigation of current events.

Nothing like lots of useless speculation to bump up those numbers.

Blech...

[RichInOC]

My thoughts? Yes. Polls are bungwipe four years out.

[b4its2late]

LOL.

Kerry would lose even if he were the only candidate....

[Alberta's Child]

I took a careful look at the matchups they polled, and decided that the whole story is a fraud. They rigged the poll by matching up two Democrat "front-runners" (the last Democrat nominee and the Democrat with the most name recognition) against three Republicans who don't stand a chance in hell of getting the GOP nomination in 2008.

They may as well take a poll to see how Pataki would match up against Lieberman . . . we'll call it the Insomniac Election.

[DaveDCMetro]

Perhaps they left McCain and Giuliani out so that it would look like Hillary was a winner and so forth, but I often hear Jeb and Frist come up on this site as possible nominees for 2008. And, well, maybe that's not such a good idea.

[Alberta's Child]

One of the things recent history tells us is that it's almost impossible to accurately predict a nominee four years in advance (except for sitting Presidents, of course). My guess is that the high-profile GOP candidates you see here will vanish from the scene by 2008, and the GOP nominee will be a popular sitting or former governor from a moderate-sized state (George Allen of Virginia, for example).

[Logical me]

Not too worried about the Hillary and Kerry campaign. Just what credentials do these both have. I have a feeling that the next campaign, the Republicans will show no mercy and Hillary would be foolish to run. Kerry is done.

[LoneSome Journey]

The entire basis of this poll is flawed. None of the Repubicans, other than possibly Pataki, are as well known nationally at this time as the democrats listed. None of those Republicans listed have implied any interest in running, nor do they have the media support given virtually any democrat. And as usual, the MSM has portrayed only the negative about Republicans.

[Banjoguy]

Jeb B. isn't running.

[GOP_Proud]

< Kerry, Hillary would beat Jeb, Frist, and Pataki in 2008 >

In who's dream?

[trebb]

The Dim-supporting propaganda machine is getting a head start on the 2008 elections. They didn't gather a full head of steam until 2002 for this electionand they will not give it a rest for the next. Prepare for a lot of acid and bile to be dripped...

[Pearls Before Swine]

My thoughts: There will NEVER be a Kerry/Hillary ticket. If she plays, it won't be as second fiddle.

[DaveDCMetro]

No, the article wasn't talking about them running as a ticket. Just that either Kerry or Hillary would beat the three Republicans mentioned.

[Pearls Before Swine]

Got it.

[Area51]

Well that's all fine and dandy but how will any of them fair AFTER the Democrat Primarys? :)

[Once-Ler]

Jeb/Frist/Pataki = Certified RINOs

Tom Tancredo certifiable

[Ghengis]

We haven't yet sworn in the winner of the 2004 election and they're doing these polls already. News organizations running polls and reporting their own polls' results as news.

Yawn.

[NJ Neocon]

I hate to say it, but unless Condi runs, I see us stuck with McCain. He can win (huge). No other, including Rudy, can get the nomination and/or win.

[DaveDCMetro]

I think Rudy and McCain would both win the general. The question is, do we want either of them? Rudy's not just a social libertarian, he's actually a social liberal, more than many Dems. And McCain, well, no one seems to trust him on the right anymore. But I agree that both could run the electoral table.

I still like Romney. He's a multi-millionaire, and has the money to contest the big boys in the primaries. He's got that whole Rudy/McCain appeal to moderates and northerners and yet still is more conservative than Rudy on social issues and more loyal to Republicans than McCain.

[NJ Neocon]

Rudy is too liberal.

- He is THRICE married
- He is TWICE divorced (one being ugly).
- He is short
- He is bald
- He is Catholic
- He is anti RTKBA
- He is Pro-Choice
- He is Pro-Homosexual marriage / Agenda
- He has a lisp

He will never, ever get the GOP nomination.

McCain is a loose cannon.

Rommney is a Mormon. The Christans right will NEVER allow him to get nominated.

[hattend]

Make sure to take a careful look at the polling matchups in the article. Hillary and Kerry are only polling in the 40s, but they're winning because Jeb, Frist, and Pataki are stuck in the 30s. Nominating one of these guys would NOT be good. Thoughts?

I think a lot of things can change in 4 years.

These pollsters can't take a day/week/month/year off, apparently.

[thedilg]

[Rommney is a Mormon. The Christian right will NEVER allow him to get nominated]

As a member of the Christian right, I disagree. I can easily live with his Mormon Religion. However, I can't live with a northeast liberal from Mass. I am certain that my southern colleagues feel much stronger. Not a single southern state would support him.

Godspeed, The Dilg

[aShepard]

Somehow, I think that in four years voters are going to be asking "John F'in Who???"

Especially if the Swiftees can complete their mission!

[NJ Neocon]

Either way, you make my point.

I asked two die-hard Republican voters who happen to be Cristian conservatives if they would ever vote for a Mormon. They said no.

[NJ Neocon]

I think your wrong. I hope your right 9especially if he is the nominee).

[John Lenin]

Hillary Trails Generic GOP Candidate by Seven Points

December 13, 2004--If the next Presidential Election were held today, 46% of voters would vote for a generic Republican candidate over Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 39% of voters would cast their ballot for Senator Clinton.

The New York Senator holds a narrow 45% to 42% lead among women, but trails by 17 points among men.

The national telephone survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports December 3-5, 2004. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[DaveDCMetro]

If GOPers want to continue to have elections that are decided within 3 pts and 50 electoral votes, they should definitely rule out anyone who is from a blue or purple state and who is not a White Anglo-Saxon Protestant.

A northerner and/or a Catholic (or other religious minority like Mormons) and/or someone who knows how to appeal to moderates would win in a landslide in 2008 over Hillary. Let's give states like Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania a candidate who they can relate to. Even just one of those states makes a Dem win nearly impossible. Look, I love the Red States. And I think the VP should definitely be from the Red States, preferably the South. But I think we have to be a bit bolder at the top of the ticket if we want to start winning those purple states that Bush lost by 5 pts or less in two consecutive elections.

[NJ Neocon]

I could not agree more. I was simply pointing out the problems with the current list of assumed fron runners.

[DaveDCMetro]

As someone from NJ, who is likely surrounded by Catholics, do you think that's an issue with conservative Protestants anymore? I mean, do you think being Catholic is a liability with the GOP base?

[gop_gene]

Somehow, I think that in four years voters are going to be asking "John F'in Who???"

I'm no Nostradamus, but I'd place good money that you're right. The only reason why Kerry is supposedly polling so high (of now) is because the campaign just ended and his widespread name recognition. There's bound to be a good number of folks that are still "jazzed up" about him--but that'll fade shortly as they seriously shift their sights to Hillary or if not her, some fresh, more appealing democratic faces (both literally and figuratively!).

Lest we forget, there was the same kind of buzz about Gore right after the 2000 election, many probably thought he would (or at least would stand a good chance of) be the dem nominee in 2004. I'm sure he even gave it serious thought, but one of the big reasons he didn't run is because he knew he wouldn't be able to just walk into the nomination a 2nd time (and hell, it'd be a huge embarassment if he didn't win it). He probably knew it'd be a dogfight, and if Kerry decides to run again, it'll be even more difficult for him to win the nomination among a slate of democrats who'll find that OPEN seat too tantalizing to not give it a shot.

[DaveDCMetro]

It's not Kerry I'm concerned about. It's the Wicked Witch of NY! (cue Wizard of Oz flying broomstick music)

[hosepipe]

Nightmare senario;...
Hildebeast / McLaim ticket..
Should draw ALL democrats and most all Rinos and other confused republicans. Not to speak of most all Oprah and Dr. Phil watchers, also all wrestling viewers, Jerry Springer watchers and almost ALL "ditz" women voters.. which is way above 50 percent of women (too scary to caculate)....
Whos to STOP IT.?..

Nobody.. The RNC don't like straight talkers.. They like to trick people into voteing republican instead.. But then again, most of the straight talkers are one issue candidates..

SIDEBAR: When you get Hillary you get BILL too, as first gentleman.. Yup. Bill back into the White House again.. Hillary and Bubba and McLain in the White House,, jeese.. THEN maybe the revolution that is needed anyways might happen... NAH!... not enough brass balls in America left to throw a decent revolution... Thats it then... the political nightmare senario...

[freeperfromnj]

Nominating one of these guys would NOT be good.

Definitely not. Tommy Franks would be my pick

[1Old Pro]

Pataki?? Don't make me laugh. He'll never win another election for anything, period.