ARMITAGE: CHINA’S “PEACEFUL RISING

SBS ^ | 24.12.2004. 12:08:39

[maui_hawaii]

MR. ROSE: Tell me what you think are the five most important foreign policy challenges for this country.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: The global war on terrorism, obviously is -- it trumps it all; the peaceful rising of China -- not in any particular order -- the peaceful rising in China;

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(Note: He was asked about challenges which he mentioned China’s rise…)

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MR. ROSE: When you look at accomplishments of you and Secretary Powell, the State Department, the Administration in foreign policy, many people will cite China as the best example. I'm not asking you to evaluate your own success, but if you look at China from the time you had the -- almost early on in the Administration to where we are today, tell me where we are today and how we, as a nation, ought to respond to the bilateral relationship with a China that's growing fast, the fastest growing economy, all of that -- a country that clearly wants to be an important member of the world's community.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Wait a minute. Clearly is important and a member.

MR. ROSE: It is a member, but it wants to play a larger role, obviously.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, and we should welcome a larger role. God knows the problems of the international community are large enough. Where we are right now after starting with a collision of aircraft four years ago is where Chinese leaders and U.S. leaders say, the best relationship we've ever had with China. And the peaceful rising of China is probably going to be the most momentous happening, probably, in the first half of this century for sure.

(Note: The international community has a lot of problems and we don’t need China creating any more of them. In fact, he would rather see China as helping solve some of the issues.)

[ mo•men•tous adj. Of utmost importance; of outstanding significance or consequence: a momentous occasion; a momentous decision. adj : of very great significance; "deciding to drop the atom bomb was a very big decision"; "a momentous event" ]

(He makes a tacit implication here… several of them. Note: he did not say which way China will take, but that a peaceful rise is the only course mentionable, and allowable. Should it take that path of a ‘peaceful rise’ then it will have profound impacts on how things go in the world…)

MR. ROSE: The peaceful rising of China is the most momentous --

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Will be the most momentous in the first half of this century. They are so big. And not just in terms of land size or population, but they're so big in terms of the energy they require, the raw materials they require, their reach, what they'll do as they take a correct place on the world stage that I think it will be momentous.

(Please note the term “correct”. He is telling China not to go off the deep end because it wouldn’t be ‘correct’. His use of the word ‘peaceful’ above also implies that China need take note of what they do internationally, because we are watching. And that if they so choose to be peaceful then we have no option other than to honor that. And if they choose the route of peace then we will work with them to solve problems. )

(Note: He did not say what would happen if China chooses a route other than peace…This is very significant. That is the carrot right there. Basically put the citizenship first and mind your manners and we will play ball and cooperate where we can.)

MR. ROSE: The power of their market, the power of their buying power.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Indeed. And the power of their growing middle class, who wants to purchase and has the ability, now, to purchase from the outside world.

MR. ROSE: Do you think they'll move towards a democracy of some sort?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I think that the tide of history is -- always leads that way, and people given their own choice will move that way. They chose to do, however, their change in society in the reverse way that the Russians did.

MR. ROSE: Well, speaking of the Russians -- go ahead.

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: They would say, the Chinese would say, "Look, we got it right. We're going to open up our markets, open up our economy, raise the general living standard and slowly expand the personal freedoms."

(Note: he says basically that continued engagement will lead to greater changes in China… that is an extremely common position on China relations… at the same time he is reminding them of the desires of much of the population for further development, and if the leadership there heeds that, then we will play ball where we can.)

MR. ROSE: Does this have to be, if China gains, U.S. loses? Does it have to be a zero-sum game?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: No. It's not a zero-sum game. The way we're all interconnected in the international economic community means that a rising tide will lift all boats.

MR. ROSE: So India grows, China grows, and it will do nothing but good for the United States if it's handled well?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, no. I think there -- it forces us, I think, all of us, to think together about the problems we all face that could inhibit us all, such as the environment, such as resources and fuel, such as the need to get alternate sources of fuel. It makes us all think about these things together, and, over time, all come together with our technology, et cetera, to better the general public good.

MR. ROSE: Where is the -- landmines -- in terms of China's rise and the United States? What has to --

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: I would say Taiwan. Taiwan is one. It's probably the biggest.

(Note: for those who don’t like his choice of words, 1. he is talking in broad terms regarding China and Asia up to this point, and how to have good relations with the US…But none the less will anyone who thinks that Taiwan is not a flash point between the US and mainland China please expose your ignorance now and say “aye”. He is talking about relations with mainland China and the US. A landmine analogy in this sense means that neither party will start trouble. It implies that neither of the two parties that he is talking about should stir up trouble over Taiwan. If anything at all, anyone who is independence minded for Taiwan should be wondering why he refers to Taiwan as ‘inanimate’, or rather an object that two powers are disputing over, rather than a living breathing thing of itself. Calling Taiwan a landmine is pretty darn accurate and is not appeasement. Saying that Taiwan has no individual rights on the other hand…that’s a whole different ballgame.)

MR. ROSE: We will defend China from Taiwan if they attack?

DEPUTY SECRETARY ARMITAGE: Well, I'm, you know, to make a statement like that is not quite appropriate. We have the requirement with the Taiwan Relations Act to keep sufficient force in the Pacific to be able to deter attack; we are not required to defend. And these are questions that actually reside with the U.S. Congress, who has to declare an act of war.

But I think we have to manage this question appropriately. We all agree that there is but one China, and Taiwan is part of China. We are guided in our own relationship with China by three communiqués, which have been negotiated by successive Administrations, and the Taiwan Relations Act. And successive Administrations since the time of normalization in 1979 have been able to carry forth, develop relations with China and maintain good relations with the people of Taiwan.

We'll have to continue that way. It's not easy.

[Paul_Denton]

The rapid nuclearization of Taiwan will make sure everyone plays nice. Thats the way I see it and is probebly the only realistic option. Just after Mr. Armitage said this the Chinese are now trying to draft some law that requires Taiwan to be part of China.