Posted on 01/09/2005 2:00:19 PM PST by BroncosFan
An Odd Kind of Jockeying
January 9, 2005
By TERRY GOLWAY and JOSH BENSON
HACKENSACK
YES, Senator Jon S. Corzine is running for governor. No, that is not why he is sitting next to his prospective opponent, Acting Gov. Richard J. Codey, at a swearing-in ceremony on a wet and dreary winter day in Hackensack.
"I would be doing this whether or not I were running for governor," Mr. Corzine said from the shelter of an umbrella after Sheriff Leo P. McGuire of Bergen County took the oath of office last Monday. Mr. Corzine is a declared candidate for governor. Mr. Codey is not, at least not yet. But there are times when the roles seem reversed as the acting governor moves from photo opportunity to news conference, north to south, dominating the news wherever he goes - and clearly enjoying it.
Mr. Corzine, who quietly declared his candidacy last month, has been decidedly less visible. In fact, the senior senator from New Jersey, who had to give up his seat on the Foreign Relations Committee last week, disappeared from the state only days after the ceremony in Hackensack to join a congressional delegation touring tsunami-stricken South Asia.
For now, Mr. Codey insists he will announce his intentions for 2005 soon after he delivers his State of the State address on Tuesday. Predicting how quickly and what he will decide remains one of the state's leading parlor games, although several Codey confidants say he has to come clean on what he wants to do by next month.
In the meantime, Mr. Corzine has decided to watch and wait until Mr. Codey says whether he will enter what could be a messy Democratic primary. With his wide popularity and vast personal wealth, Mr. Corzine is betting that Mr. Codey will ultimately decide against taking him on. And until Mr. Codey shows his hand, Mr. Corzine hopes to avoid any unnecessary antagonism.
That sort of thinking, it seems, is not mutual.
While Mr. Corzine has been discreetly asking for backing as he traipses around the state, Mr. Codey has been far more aggressive - to say nothing of his allies, who have been working behind the scenes as well as staging public rallies in an effort to line up support. "He's trying to assess his strength throughout the state," said Thomas Giblin, a union leader and former state Democratic chairman from Essex County who is firmly behind a Codey candidacy. "He seems to be inclined to pursue this thing."
The question being asked by some political observers is whether Mr. Corzine, in his desire to avoid confrontation, has ceded too much ground to a potential opponent with no similar compunction about infighting. "Dick is doing everything he can to be in position to run," said one Democratic lobbyist, Thomas O'Neil. "Corzine seems to be looking to run a gentleman's race, like he ran in 2000 for Senate against Bob Franks. But a race for governor is a street fight - all the rules are out the window and anything goes."
The contrasting styles have been reflected in their public appearances. Mr. Corzine, who spent $60 million of his own money on his Senate race in 2000, has never had a pressing need for media coverage - and it shows.
It is not that Mr. Corzine has been content to stay out of the news. Indeed, he has maintained an active public schedule - even during the holiday season - showing up at swearing-in ceremonies around the state. And he has engaged in what his spokesman, David Wald, described as tons of private meetings with officials and party leaders around the state. As a result, Mr. Corzine has earned a great deal of credibility with party activists since his election - and not only because of his eagerness to write checks to county organizations. He has been a good sport about showing up at all manner of events, from the Bergen County swearing-in ceremony to a freeholders' reception in Monmouth County over the New Year's weekend. Democrats who had never heard of Mr. Corzine before he ran for Senate have had ample opportunity to meet and greet the senator.
But while he has tried hard to be visible, Mr. Corzine, a former chairman of Goldman Sachs, does not have an abundance of charisma. In public appearances, he tends to maintain an understated manner that is deemed charming in private situations but can seem underwhelming to larger audiences. In an appearance at the Trenton Marriott in December, where he spoke to a gathering of AARP, Mr. Corzine offered a brief and not especially memorable greeting in a ballroom filled with senior citizens. He received a polite reception, although many of the diners were clearly more interested in their chicken lunches than the featured speaker. There was little coverage of his appearance.
Whenever he has been asked about facing off against Mr. Codey in a gubernatorial primary, Mr. Corzine has gone out of his way to be as unobtrusive as possible, always emphasizing the respect he has for Mr. Codey.
Codey's Captive Audience
By contrast, Mr. Codey has clearly come to regard every day as a new opportunity to raise his profile. He has taken full advantage of his captive audience - a State House press corps that has seemed kindly disposed toward him in the wake of the tumultuous events that led to James E. McGreevey's resignation on Nov. 15.
Mr. Codey has won editorial praise for his straightforward and self-effacing style, and his clear desire to be more than just a caretaker. He has acted, in other words, much like a candidate in a full-blown campaign, even though those closest to him say they have no idea what he will do. Even if Mr. Codey chooses not to run, it is in his political interest to leave state legislators wondering. The alternative is a year of powerlessness in a state not known for its good manners.
The results, at least in terms of media coverage, are showing. "Governor Codey's political stock has outpaced Wall Street since Nov. 15," said Mr. Giblin, the union leader. Mr. Giblin would be advised to mind his metaphors. Just last Tuesday, Mr. Codey ventured across the Hudson River to ring the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange - an invitation that was not extended to his predecessor.
"I hope that as a result of me being here today, the Dow Jones industrial average goes up just like my approval rating," Mr. Codey said. In fact, the Dow Jones closed down 98.65.
Of course, the halo following Mr. Codey around could quickly become a noose, depending on how he deals with a looming budget shortfall of about $4 billion. But that will not become evident for several weeks, when his budget is unveiled in late February. For the time being, Mr. Codey can take full advantage of the power of the governorship and the very large pulpit that comes along with the title.
On Christmas Eve, for example, Mr. Codey scheduled an appearance at the Vince Lombardi rest stop on the New Jersey Turnpike, ostensibly to talk about how the state had decided to allow the Salvation Army to collect donations on state-owned property. But the "money shot" for the camera crews on that slow news day was an image of the governor happily ringing a Salvation Army bell.
Mr. Codey has also been effective at leveraging the State House for favorable coverage, holding frequent news conferences to announce everything from the formation of panels and task forces to tackling issues of ethics in government, fiscal discipline and environmental policy. In some cases, like the creation of the position of auditor general, it has not been clear that the newly created advisory positions are not duplications of existing posts. But the common dividend has been a highly visible governor looking determined and in action.
When Mr. Codey was asked at one of his early news conferences as governor about his relationship with Mr. Corzine, he managed to sneak a rabbit punch into a benign-sounding answer. "I'm not going to get into a rival thing with him," Mr. Codey said. "I know you and the press would like to picture it as Wall Street versus Main Street. I'm not going to go there."
Of course, by saying he would not go there, he did.
So if a street fight does break out between the two Democrats, the advantage - at least in a primary - could tip the conventional wisdom on its ear and lean toward Mr. Codey. That would be especially so if Representative Robert Andrews of South Jersey remains true to his word and dives in, creating a three-way race in which 40 percent of the vote might be enough to win.
After all, Mr. Codey, a veteran Essex County legislator, has battled his way to the top in a state where political brawls take on the intensity, not to mention the longevity, of the Hundred Years' War. Along the way, he stared down two of New Jersey's most feared political bosses, former state Senator John Lynch of Middlesex County and George Norcross Jr., whose control of South Jersey only begins to tell the breadth of his clout.
Corzine Awaits 'Certification'
In the face of countless photo opportunities and news conferences staged by Mr. Codey, Mr. Corzine has resisted calls from some of his most influential backers to take a more aggressive posture - by broadcasting television ads, for example - nor has he flaunted the support he does have among the state's power brokers.
At the swearing-in of the Bergen County sheriff, for example, Mr. Corzine said only that he hoped that the county's Democrats would show their support soon to provide "certification" that he was a gubernatorial candidate "for real."
Mr. Codey has been less circumspect about getting that sort of certification. In a display of strength last month that was ostensibly spontaneous - although the state press corps became aware of it a week in advance - most of Essex County's prominent officials gathered on the steps of the county Hall of Records in Newark to announce, one by one, their support for and admiration of Mr. Codey. And there was nothing discreet about their message; the podium was plastered with a sign that said, "Run Codey Run."
Assemblyman John McKeon, a Codey supporter and mayor of the governor's hometown, West Orange, said he called the rally a "show of support unparalleled in Essex County history." As Mr. O'Neil, the Democratic lobbyist, suggested, Mr. Corzine has yet to be tested in this kind of battle. In his political debut in 2000, for instance, he ran in a primary against former Gov. Jim Florio, whose reputation had been tarnished by an unpopular tax increase followed by a stinging loss to Christie Whitman in the gubernatorial election. And while Senate races in New Jersey have had their share of hand-to-hand combat, they are for the most part more genteel affairs.
Senators, after all, concern themselves with global issues, while governors have to roll up their sleeves to write budgets, appoint prosecutors and otherwise cast a large shadow. As a result, political insiders, county chairmen and power brokers have an intense interest in who gets the lease on Drumthwacket, the governor's mansion.
These are the people who make a difference in a party primary. And these also happen to be the people who have known Mr. Codey for 30 years, while Mr. Corzine introduced himself to the electorate only in 2000.
In that sense, while Mr. Codey was virtually unknown beyond Essex County on Aug. 12, 2004 - the day Mr. McGreevey announced his resignation - he was very much a known quantity among the state's political establishment. Mr. Corzine, by contrast, had an enviable voter approval rating of 60 percent in a Quinnipiac poll late last year, but that is something entirely different from winning the insider game of endorsements from county organizations.
"Some of them might be thinking, 'Corzine is of us, but he is not one of us,' " said David Rebovich, director of the Rider Institute of New Jersey Politics. "There may be some concern that if he wins, he brings in the best and brightest, brings in some kooky college professors instead of people who worked hard for the Democrats for decades. Codey, on the other hand, is a known commodity, and in politics, predictability is a virtue."
Of course, money ranks right up there among any politician's list of virtues. Mr. Corzine's worth has been estimated at $300 million, and he has shown that he is willing to spend whatever it takes. His Senate race left him $60 million lighter in assets, but his generosity earned him the support of county leaders and local politicians who would not have recognized him in a ballot box before 1999.
"Do not underestimate Jon Corzine," said one Democratic power broker from Essex County. "Primaries are very different from general elections. Only a small number of people vote, so it's a lot easier to influence the outcome. I get the feeling that a lot of the so-called bosses are with Corzine."
Mr. Corzine's deep pockets will come into the equation soon enough should Mr. Codey decide to enter the race. For instance, Mr. Corzine will probably respond by mounting an expensive advertising campaign that neither Mr. Codey nor Mr. Andrews can match.
Winning is another virtue in politics, and Mr. Corzine - fueled by unlimited funds and high approval ratings - has the look of a winner. He is routinely referred to as the state's most-popular politician, even though he faced voters in a general election only once, in 2000, and barely defeated Mr. Franks.
While Mr. Corzine has money, popularity and, therefore, a sense of inevitability, Mr. Codey has the power of incumbency and political roots that go back 30 years. In addition, Mr. Codey is the Senate president as well as the acting governor, and as such has control over the state budget and political appointments - in other words, power that money can not buy.
'Power of the Incumbency'
"You watch NJN and you see the governor out there putting a smile on some mayor's face or some county executive's face," said Hudson County Executive Tom DeGise, who, like most elected Democrats, has not chosen sides. "That's the power of the incumbency."
Close observers may have noticed how Mr. Codey chose to remind his fellow Democrats of those virtues that may distinguish him from Mr. Corzine in the months ahead. At a ceremony marking the renovation of the Essex County Courthouse, Mr. Codey gave the principal address.
Behind him, as either luck or shrewd planning had it, was a huge, allegorical painting that illustrated the driving away of evil.
And just above the governor's head was the title of the painting: "Power and Beneficence."
Priceless.
Codey won't run. The primary is five months away and Corzine is the most popular politician in the state. Plus, Corzine can spend millions and Codey can't match that warchest. He may kindly ask Corzine to appoint him to be senator if Cornize wins the gubernatorial race.
Corzine is popular? By what standard? In whose estimation?
Quinnipiac polls.
Limitless resources, a reasonable demeanor, no large scandals (that have become public), and a compliant media = Popular. Even if he is one of the biggest socialists in the Senate.
The NY Times raises a very good point when they mention that Codey's future will depend a lot on how he deals with the state budget this year. I'm predicting that Codey will be the "sacrificial lamb" who screws the taxpayers of New Jersey to balance the budget this year . . . and then he won't run in November.
Ping.
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