Posted on 01/16/2005 6:06:06 AM PST by knighthawk
THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.
The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.
In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."
It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".
Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".
The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.
The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."
As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.
The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.
"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."
Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.
The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".
For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".
Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".
The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.
Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.
The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.
If people want on or off this list, please let me know.
Very interesting. Thanks for the ping, Knighthawk!
bttt
It's a slam-dunk!
Have friends who live in Sweden and the stories boggle the mind. A Swedish woman came to work for the American Embassy, then got pregnant a month later and got two years off with full pay. It's the law. Companies are leaving Sweden in droves because of the incredibly high cost of benefits they are required to give workers, who often abuse the system. It's a country on the brink of financial ruin and all too typical of the rest of Europe.
It will be interesting to see how Europe blames it's imminent decline on President Bush....
Although this one is a no-brainer. Methinks the CIA is simply trying to up their batting average by finally getting something right . . . even though anyone with the IQ of a lava-rock could've made this call.
I have been predicting this for a year now. Of course the "sophisticated Europeans" see only utopia in the EU.
Oh well.....................
Old Europe is pouring in a lot of money into the new countries. They will want it back in the future to pay for their self made social system which is already bankrupt.
That's when the real problems begin.
"Old Europe needs new Europe more than the other way around.
" ... Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population."
Throw its growing Muslim population into the equation, as well. Islamism = "backwardism".
Everything is Bush's fault.
The Opel problem is now the fault of those greedy Americans, never the lazy, unproductive employees or the German people who don't want to buy the cars.
Ping
One of the "possible furtures" had a whimsical comment where they predicted that "Bollywood dominates Hollywood." Comically, this show up in a media report (i think in India) where the byline was something to the effect that "CIA predicts India will dominate in key sectors." Too funny (it also goes to show how desparate the so called "emerging powers" of the EU, China and India are to find dome scrap of eveidence that will support the notion that their fututures will come anywhere close to the hype surrounding their "emergence.")
The study does have a nice online simulator to play with. I cannot remember the URL but just google for "Study 2020 CIA" and you will find it.
These sorts of studies go on all the time, as well they should. The authors, however, are merely playing with ideas. They do not intent to "predict" anything - these studies are merely touchstones for thought, discussion and policy making. This article mischaracterizes and exaggerates the intents, claims and the meanings of these studies.
I thank God I'm not a "sophisticated European" then, because I will leave these shores long before the collapse happens. All I want is a job I can work at and I don't need no socialist utopia "supporting" me (or rather: squeezing every last dime out of me)..
History repeats itself. Putin will rise as the next Hitler.
The only thing I care about is that whatever happens, the president better issue a state of emergency and disband the state department and avoid a whole lot of bloodshed.
Goes without saying that he best not go there. Where many of you also want to go. Something about bailing their butts one more time inside of 100 years.
And for pete's stake, let's stop this stupid "they attacked us, we defeat them then we got to bankrupt ourselves to "rebuild" them."
Good post.
Same here in Germany, worked with a "Local National" who left to have a baby, she was gone for almost a year, then, when she came back...she only has to work for 3 out of 5 days.
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