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CIA gives grim warning on European prospects
Scotsman ^ | 01/16/05 | NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN

Posted on 01/16/2005 8:38:31 AM PST by Pikamax

CIA gives grim warning on European prospects

NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: eu; europe; fifthcolumn; islam; muslims; nato
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1 posted on 01/16/2005 8:38:31 AM PST by Pikamax
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To: Pikamax

We're not that far behind the Euro-peons.


2 posted on 01/16/2005 8:42:08 AM PST by Andy from Beaverton (I only vote Republican to stop the Democrats)
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To: Pikamax

That's weird. A CIA assessment I agree with.


3 posted on 01/16/2005 8:42:34 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Pikamax
Doesn't the CIA have anything better to do than to try to predict Europe's future?
Geez. How 'bout trying to find UBL, predict where the next terror attack will be...or something really creative about our own future?
That is JUST what Europeans need and want to hear...the CIA telling them what their problems are. Seems arrogant and misplaced. I wonder why he chose to do that. It's like telling India that they have a lot of problems....over population, under development. Why?
And why post this?
Just curious. Don't mean to start any trouble.
4 posted on 01/16/2005 8:48:10 AM PST by starfish923
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To: Pikamax

It also predicts the end of Nato..

NATO is already just about dead. NATO's almost token help in Afghanistan and nonexistent help in Iraq have taken care of that. We may be pulling out of Bosnia and Kosovo in the next couple of years. After that, it's all over except for the funeral.

5 posted on 01/16/2005 8:51:25 AM PST by ml1954
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To: Pikamax

Nothing here freepers haven't been saying for a LONG time.


6 posted on 01/16/2005 8:55:32 AM PST by America's Resolve (awarforeurabia.blogspot.com - Watching the war for Europe)
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To: Andy from Beaverton
We're not that far behind the Euro-peons.

There was an earlier thread comparing the economies of EU countries to US state economies. The best countries of the EU would only beat out 4 or 5 US states if compared individually. (been searching, can't find the right key words yet, will post link if I can find it).

Our "peons" have a standard of living better than the middle or even upper middle class in European countries, when measured in terms of income, food, housing, possessions such as cars, TVs, microwaves, etc.

7 posted on 01/16/2005 9:04:34 AM PST by Phsstpok ("When you don't know where you are, but you don't care, you're not lost, you're exploring.")
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To: Pikamax

Next big CIA discovery.............STEAM!!


8 posted on 01/16/2005 9:11:09 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
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To: starfish923
It's more than predicting the future of Europe. This newspaper simply extracted some key points about Europe for its article.

It's actually fascinating reading.

Read it here.

9 posted on 01/16/2005 9:21:23 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Pikamax

Maybe once they drop the Euro I can afford to go back. ;)


10 posted on 01/16/2005 9:38:14 AM PST by rightwinggoth
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To: Dog Gone

If the CIA says 15 years, it's probably more like three.


11 posted on 01/16/2005 9:40:01 AM PST by CFC__VRWC
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Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Dog Gone
Not to start an argument, but a lot of the "reports" on these types of reports are politically biased. The conclusion often drawn by the "reporter" is that more immigration is the only way out of the "crisis."

I ask "what crisis?" Surely we can find a way for all us to survive with 350 million people in America and slightly more than that many in Europe? Some adjustments will be needed to both our views and our actions, but surely we can find a way to have a nice standard of living, space to camp and enjoy the outdoors and occasionally star-gaze without increasing immigration a jillion people a year.

Call me naive and retro, if you must.

tyson
13 posted on 01/16/2005 9:45:32 AM PST by oldplayer
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To: starfish923
Geez. How 'bout trying to find UBL, predict where the next terror attack will be...or something really creative about our own future?

Now when would the CIA find time to do something that might enhance our national security? They've got much more important things to do, like trying to oust Porter Goss so they can go back to undermining President Bush full time, instead of only part time like they're forced to do now.

14 posted on 01/16/2005 9:46:26 AM PST by CFC__VRWC
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To: oldplayer
Europe may not be in crisis, but in several european countries, including Russia, the birthrate is less than 2.0 per woman, which means the population, excluding immigration, is in decline. Moreover, life expectancy in many countries, including Russia, is actually in decline.

How europe deals with immigration is going to have a lot to do with how their economies perform, and what their national identities look like in the future.

15 posted on 01/16/2005 9:55:37 AM PST by Dog Gone
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: Phsstpok

If European nations were admitted as states into the America union, they would be our poor, dependent cousins.

If the UK, France, or Italy became U.S. states, they would rank as the 5th poorest of the states, ahead only of Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The richest EU country - Ireland - would be the 13th poorest. Sweden would be the 6th poorest.

“Good economic development, in other words, results in even poor people being relatively well off in the states,” wrote Dr. Fredrik Bergström, President of The Swedish Research Institute of Trade, Robert Gidehag in the book “Sweden versus the US.”

“Hence, the EU no longer is – or is seen as – the great economic liberator of Europe.”

In other words, a redneck driving a pick-up with a gun rack lives better than European gentry.

In the 1990s, U.S. growth was twice that of Europe’s, and three times that of Japan’s. The U.S. per capita income is now 55% higher than the EU-15 average, and 50% higher than Japan’s.


17 posted on 01/16/2005 9:58:36 AM PST by sergeantdave (Help save the environment. Mail your old tires and garbage to the local Sierra Club.)
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To: sergeantdave

Thank you. That's the info.

Was it in the full text of this CIA report? Where did you find it?


18 posted on 01/16/2005 10:03:41 AM PST by Phsstpok ("When you don't know where you are, but you don't care, you're not lost, you're exploring.")
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To: Pikamax

The EU shouldn't be too worried, the CIA doesn't have a good track record.


19 posted on 01/16/2005 10:06:59 AM PST by Chgogal
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Comment #20 Removed by Moderator

To: Pikamax

15 years? I say about 3. Not from welfare but from bitterness over a bunch of Franco Dictator types.


21 posted on 01/16/2005 10:10:24 AM PST by Porterville (Never compromise what is right. Take your time to insult a liberal or have one unemployed.)
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To: Dog Gone

Dog Gone,

The point I am making is that maybe less than 2 births per Russian woman is a good thing right now. Apparently, the people doing the birthing agree that it is. The individuals might have a good idea of what is best for them and their offspring, maybe even better than some liberal "reporters" or professional state planners/demographers.

If we just respond to this so-called "problem/crisis" in a positive way or view instead of thinking that the easiest/best remedy is simply replacing a declining population with a sea of new immigrants, be they Christian, Moslem or any other group. Infinite population growth may not be the best answer to economic or standard of living issues. There may be a better way. In fact, the population of these places may be seeking its own sustainable level given our technology and culture. Let's not be too fast to apply a political solution to an economic "problem" that may be solving itself.

Just an unusual thought, I guess.

tyson


22 posted on 01/16/2005 10:13:11 AM PST by oldplayer
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Comment #23 Removed by Moderator

To: John_Wheatley
Redneck Solidarity! placemarker.
24 posted on 01/16/2005 10:19:32 AM PST by headsonpikes (Spirit of '76 bttt!)
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To: John_Wheatley
Ha.then they can all be employed translating every EU language into every other while furiously commuting between Brussels and Strasbourg.

Big demand for Finish to Maltese translators and interpreters.

25 posted on 01/16/2005 10:20:13 AM PST by spokeshave (Strategery + Schardenfreude = Stratenschardenfreudery)
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Comment #26 Removed by Moderator

Comment #27 Removed by Moderator

To: oldplayer

Unusual, yes
The European declining population problem began in the 60's. In the 70's for instance, Germany started paying people a monthly amount for each child in order to encourage growth.
It didn't work
La Dolce Vita took over and the populous became too lazy to breed.
Now they have a huge financial problem. An aging population, promises of high retirement and worryfree living. Someone has to pay for it. When a Government already taxes you to the hilt, there isn't much left.

In short, "old Europe" has a problem that should have been adressed decades ago. They decided to bury their heads in the sand and left their collective A***es up high for target practise.


28 posted on 01/16/2005 10:23:46 AM PST by americanbychoice2
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Comment #29 Removed by Moderator

To: oldplayer
I agree, but there are some real problems with that, especially in countries which provide assistance to their elderly and no longer productive citizens. They face a demographic problem when there aren't enough workers to support the social programs.

Perhaps the solution is to greatly reduce the social spending, but that certainly has political and social ramifications. Regardless, these countries will be forced into some tough choices.

30 posted on 01/16/2005 10:32:39 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: John_Wheatley

We both know that "old" and "new" refer to the EU, not as a contrast to the US.


31 posted on 01/16/2005 10:33:50 AM PST by americanbychoice2
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Comment #32 Removed by Moderator

To: Dog Gone
Regardless, these countries will be forced into some tough choices.

Like selling weapons to China.

longjack

33 posted on 01/16/2005 10:37:23 AM PST by longjack
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To: John_Wheatley

"Old Europe" means the original 13
"New Europe" means new members.
This is not meant as a put down of any kind. Don't try to read things that aren't there.


34 posted on 01/16/2005 10:38:40 AM PST by americanbychoice2
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To: americanbychoice2
To American By Choice Two,

Certainly the decling population in Europe began showing itself in the '60's. (Although, I believe at that time it was an emerging trend, not as absolute population decrease like we may be seeing now in Italy, for instance.) But what is the problem really?

You mention financial problems and an aging population. Both can be transitory. The population aging is a natural outgrowth of the European "baby boom" after WWII. The "promises of high retirement and worry free living" is the natural result of fuzzy minded thinking.

Your right, either someone has to pay for it or the policy must be changed. Massively increased immigration is probably just a short term fix if you don't alter fuzzy-minded liberal policies. And if you're going to amend or abandon them in the future, why not tomorrow?

Tyson
35 posted on 01/16/2005 10:38:54 AM PST by oldplayer
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To: CFC__VRWC

Muslims will break up Europe quicker than 15 years.


36 posted on 01/16/2005 10:42:54 AM PST by Enterprise ("Dance with the Devil by the Pale Moonlight" - Islam compels you!)
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To: John_Wheatley
Are countries that are 3 times older than the USA now new?

Yes, but what is their democratic age? Many, if not all I would venture a guess, are younger Democratic countries then we.

37 posted on 01/16/2005 10:42:56 AM PST by riri
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To: oldplayer

The biggest problem in Germany was the "Wirtschaftswunder".
The only thing missing was that it didn't come with instructions.

Even if the birth rate would go to 3, it could not prevent the upcoming fiscal problem.

Old Europe is pouring in a lot of money into the new countries. They will want it back in the future to pay for their self made social system which is already bankrupt.
That's when the real problems begin.

"Old Europe needs new Europe more than the other way around.


38 posted on 01/16/2005 10:44:42 AM PST by americanbychoice2
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Comment #39 Removed by Moderator

Comment #40 Removed by Moderator

To: Pikamax

read later


41 posted on 01/16/2005 10:47:25 AM PST by Sam Cree (Democrats are herd animals)
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To: longjack
The CIA report I linked predicts that China will be second only to the US in military spending and will have a top tier armed forces.

Interestingly, though, it too will have a demographic bubble to deal with, thanks to its one-child policy.

42 posted on 01/16/2005 10:47:45 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Pikamax
"As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions."

That will be the end of them. No modern free society can survive that. If this forecast proves true, and there are that many Muslims(a good portion WILL be radical), there will be mass murder and chaos. Their PC view of the world will leave them paralyzed and they will doing nothing to resist it.

43 posted on 01/16/2005 10:48:52 AM PST by KoRn
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Comment #44 Removed by Moderator

To: starfish923

Anticipating what the world will look like next year, in ten years, in 20 years, even 50 years is a fundamantal part of our ability to survive that world. How different would the world have been if we had properly predicted the current role of Islamic fundamentalism during Jimmy Carter's days, and had reacted to the revolution in Iran accordingly?

The CIA should be working many priorities, but I agree that anticipating the political situations in Europe, Africa, and South America are certainly among them.


45 posted on 01/16/2005 10:53:08 AM PST by TN4Liberty (American... conservative... southern.... It doesn't get any better than this.)
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To: miltonim

Disagree. But do try to back up your claim that Jews are the cause of most of the world's problems.


46 posted on 01/16/2005 10:53:27 AM PST by Alas Babylon!
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To: John_Wheatley

Well, I did a typo.
I should have said "Old Europe" would include the original 6
I guess it always depends on the timing in a fast changing world?


47 posted on 01/16/2005 10:54:26 AM PST by americanbychoice2
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Comment #48 Removed by Moderator

To: Andy from Beaverton

Baloney.


49 posted on 01/16/2005 10:58:07 AM PST by Diddle E. Squat
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Comment #50 Removed by Moderator


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