Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

CIA gives grim warning on European prospects
Scotsman ^ | 01/16/05 | NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN

Posted on 01/16/2005 8:38:31 AM PST by Pikamax

CIA gives grim warning on European prospects

NICHOLAS CHRISTIAN

THE CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its ageing population. It also predicts the end of Nato and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

It adds that the EU’s economic growth rate is dragged down by Germany and its restrictive labour laws. Reforms there - and in France and Italy to lesser extents - remain key to whether the EU as a whole can break out of its "slow-growth pattern".

Reflecting growing fears in the US that the pain of any proper reform would be too much to bear, the report adds that the experts it consulted "are dubious that the present political leadership is prepared to make even this partial break, believing a looming budgetary crisis in the next five years would be the more likely trigger for reform".

The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. Nato could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.

"The EU, rather than Nato, will increasingly become the primary institution for Europe, and the role Europeans shape for themselves on the world stage is most likely to be projected through it," the report adds. "Whether the EU will develop an army is an open question."

Defence spending by individual European countries, including the UK, France, and Germany, is likely to fall further behind China and other countries over the next 15 years. Collectively these countries will outspend all others except the US and possibly China.

The expected next technological revolution will involve the convergence of nano, bio, information and materials technology and will further bolster China and India’s prospects, the study predicts. Both countries are investing in basic research in these fields and are well placed to be leaders. But whereas the US will retain its overall lead, the report warns "Europe risks slipping behind Asia in some of these technologies".

For Europe, an increasing preference for natural gas may reinforce regional relationships, such as those with Russia or North Africa, given the inter-dependence of pipeline delivery, the report argues. But this means the EU will have to deal with Russia, which the report also warns "faces a severe demographic crisis resulting from low birth rates, poor medical care and a potentially explosive Aids situation".

Russia also borders an "unstable region" in the Caucasus and Central Asia, "the effects of which - Muslim extremism, terrorism and endemic conflict - are likely to continue spilling over into Russia".

The report also largely en dorses forecasts that by 2020 China’s gross domestic product will exceed that of individual western economic powers except for the US. India’s GDP will have overtaken or be overtaking European economies.

Because of the sheer size of China’s and India’s populations their standard of living need not approach European and western levels to become important economic powers.

The economies of other developing countries, such as Brazil, could surpass all but the largest European countries by 2020.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: eu; europe; fifthcolumn; islam; muslims; nato
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 161-167 next last

1 posted on 01/16/2005 8:38:31 AM PST by Pikamax
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

We're not that far behind the Euro-peons.


2 posted on 01/16/2005 8:42:08 AM PST by Andy from Beaverton (I only vote Republican to stop the Democrats)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

That's weird. A CIA assessment I agree with.


3 posted on 01/16/2005 8:42:34 AM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax
Doesn't the CIA have anything better to do than to try to predict Europe's future?
Geez. How 'bout trying to find UBL, predict where the next terror attack will be...or something really creative about our own future?
That is JUST what Europeans need and want to hear...the CIA telling them what their problems are. Seems arrogant and misplaced. I wonder why he chose to do that. It's like telling India that they have a lot of problems....over population, under development. Why?
And why post this?
Just curious. Don't mean to start any trouble.
4 posted on 01/16/2005 8:48:10 AM PST by starfish923
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

It also predicts the end of Nato..

NATO is already just about dead. NATO's almost token help in Afghanistan and nonexistent help in Iraq have taken care of that. We may be pulling out of Bosnia and Kosovo in the next couple of years. After that, it's all over except for the funeral.

5 posted on 01/16/2005 8:51:25 AM PST by ml1954
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

Nothing here freepers haven't been saying for a LONG time.


6 posted on 01/16/2005 8:55:32 AM PST by America's Resolve (awarforeurabia.blogspot.com - Watching the war for Europe)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Andy from Beaverton
We're not that far behind the Euro-peons.

There was an earlier thread comparing the economies of EU countries to US state economies. The best countries of the EU would only beat out 4 or 5 US states if compared individually. (been searching, can't find the right key words yet, will post link if I can find it).

Our "peons" have a standard of living better than the middle or even upper middle class in European countries, when measured in terms of income, food, housing, possessions such as cars, TVs, microwaves, etc.

7 posted on 01/16/2005 9:04:34 AM PST by Phsstpok ("When you don't know where you are, but you don't care, you're not lost, you're exploring.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

Next big CIA discovery.............STEAM!!


8 posted on 01/16/2005 9:11:09 AM PST by Jimmy Valentine (DemocRATS - when they speak, they lie; when they are silent, they are stealing the American Dream)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: starfish923
It's more than predicting the future of Europe. This newspaper simply extracted some key points about Europe for its article.

It's actually fascinating reading.

Read it here.

9 posted on 01/16/2005 9:21:23 AM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

Maybe once they drop the Euro I can afford to go back. ;)


10 posted on 01/16/2005 9:38:14 AM PST by rightwinggoth
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Dog Gone

If the CIA says 15 years, it's probably more like three.


11 posted on 01/16/2005 9:40:01 AM PST by CFC__VRWC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

Comment #12 Removed by Moderator

To: Dog Gone
Not to start an argument, but a lot of the "reports" on these types of reports are politically biased. The conclusion often drawn by the "reporter" is that more immigration is the only way out of the "crisis."

I ask "what crisis?" Surely we can find a way for all us to survive with 350 million people in America and slightly more than that many in Europe? Some adjustments will be needed to both our views and our actions, but surely we can find a way to have a nice standard of living, space to camp and enjoy the outdoors and occasionally star-gaze without increasing immigration a jillion people a year.

Call me naive and retro, if you must.

tyson
13 posted on 01/16/2005 9:45:32 AM PST by oldplayer
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: starfish923
Geez. How 'bout trying to find UBL, predict where the next terror attack will be...or something really creative about our own future?

Now when would the CIA find time to do something that might enhance our national security? They've got much more important things to do, like trying to oust Porter Goss so they can go back to undermining President Bush full time, instead of only part time like they're forced to do now.

14 posted on 01/16/2005 9:46:26 AM PST by CFC__VRWC
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: oldplayer
Europe may not be in crisis, but in several european countries, including Russia, the birthrate is less than 2.0 per woman, which means the population, excluding immigration, is in decline. Moreover, life expectancy in many countries, including Russia, is actually in decline.

How europe deals with immigration is going to have a lot to do with how their economies perform, and what their national identities look like in the future.

15 posted on 01/16/2005 9:55:37 AM PST by Dog Gone
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: Phsstpok

If European nations were admitted as states into the America union, they would be our poor, dependent cousins.

If the UK, France, or Italy became U.S. states, they would rank as the 5th poorest of the states, ahead only of Arkansas, Montana, West Virginia, and Mississippi. The richest EU country - Ireland - would be the 13th poorest. Sweden would be the 6th poorest.

“Good economic development, in other words, results in even poor people being relatively well off in the states,” wrote Dr. Fredrik Bergström, President of The Swedish Research Institute of Trade, Robert Gidehag in the book “Sweden versus the US.”

“Hence, the EU no longer is – or is seen as – the great economic liberator of Europe.”

In other words, a redneck driving a pick-up with a gun rack lives better than European gentry.

In the 1990s, U.S. growth was twice that of Europe’s, and three times that of Japan’s. The U.S. per capita income is now 55% higher than the EU-15 average, and 50% higher than Japan’s.


17 posted on 01/16/2005 9:58:36 AM PST by sergeantdave (Help save the environment. Mail your old tires and garbage to the local Sierra Club.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

To: sergeantdave

Thank you. That's the info.

Was it in the full text of this CIA report? Where did you find it?


18 posted on 01/16/2005 10:03:41 AM PST by Phsstpok ("When you don't know where you are, but you don't care, you're not lost, you're exploring.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Pikamax

The EU shouldn't be too worried, the CIA doesn't have a good track record.


19 posted on 01/16/2005 10:06:59 AM PST by Chgogal
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Comment #20 Removed by Moderator


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-6061-80 ... 161-167 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson