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Dick Morris: How Second Terms Fail
New York Post ^ | January 19, 2005 | Dick Morris

Posted on 01/19/2005 2:14:35 PM PST by RWR8189

PRESIDENTIAL second terms usually end in fail ure. Since 1900, only Teddy Roosevelt could boast of a second term that was as good or better than his first. Woodrow Wilson lost Congress, then couldn't bring America into the League of Nations. FDR, whose third term was a success, failed to pass anything in his second after he alienated Congress by trying to pack the Supreme Court and purge recalcitrant Democrats. Harry Truman's popularity plunged over Korea, as Lyndon Johnson's did over Vietnam. Ike had two recessions and a hospitalization. Richard Nixon resigned. Ronald Reagan had Iran-Contra, and Bill Clinton was impeached.

The reasons for second-term failure are pretty much the same: Presidents generally do what they are good at in their first four years, then spend their second term responding to the agendas imposed upon them by events. Plus, re-election itself tends to encourage a spirit of hubris — even as top staff typically depart in search of lucrative jobs, leaving second stringers in charge.

But President Bush has gotten off to a very good start in the weeks since Election Day. Palestine is lurching toward peace. North Korea seems likely to return to six-power talks. Iraq will hold an election, with turnout likely exceeding our own. Ukraine has opted for democracy. And the tsunami has kindled a global spirit of cooperation and unity unlike anything since 9/11.

But Bush has clearly signaled that he will not devote the next four years — as he has the past three — exclusively to fighting the War on Terror. While not planning to let up the pressure on our enemies, he plans to tackle the two most difficult tasks in American politics: Social Security and income-tax reform. Only Reagan succeeded in the latter; nobody has ever done both.

President Bush's hope of

(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2ndterm; bush43; dickmorris; failedterm; morris; secondterm; term2

1 posted on 01/19/2005 2:14:46 PM PST by RWR8189
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To: RWR8189

To call Reagan's second term a failure is ridiculous. He had problems with Iran Contra but probably could have been reelected in 88 (as might Clinton have been in 2000)


2 posted on 01/19/2005 2:17:36 PM PST by Honestfreedom
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To: RWR8189

I'm pretty confident that Bush will have a successful 2nd term as long as he stays to the right.


3 posted on 01/19/2005 2:18:38 PM PST by youngtory (Prime Minister Dithers to all of Canada-"Have a CRAPPY NEW YEAR")
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To: RWR8189

John Gibson on Fox - just asked Geraldine Ferraro if the Democrats were going to act like Barbara Boxer or Diane Feinstein. She just keeps repeating that the Dems have to elect a Chair of the DNC and get more Dems elected.

So they have no intention of working with President Bush for the next 4 years. They are only dedicated to getting back political power.

No ideas, no new solutions - same ol' same ol' what a shame for the USA.


4 posted on 01/19/2005 2:19:46 PM PST by highflight (from a distance - buzzards might appear as eagles.)
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To: RWR8189

Ike, Nixon, and the Gipper didn't have conservative talk radio, Fox News, and (most important) Free Republic along with the rest of the Internet. But Clinton did (hehehehehe).


5 posted on 01/19/2005 2:22:40 PM PST by advance_copy
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To: highflight
So they have no intention of working with President Bush for the next 4 years.

Neither party EVER has any intention of "working with" the other party. The only people who don't know this are the Washington press corps.

6 posted on 01/19/2005 2:23:00 PM PST by Taliesan (The power of the State to do good is the power of the State to do evil.)
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To: Honestfreedom

I'd say Reagan's term was a failure. He retreated on taxes, Iran-Contra, and basically slept through the term. I love the guy but the truth is his second term was largely a failure.


7 posted on 01/19/2005 2:24:05 PM PST by Darkwolf377 (DUmmies = Trekkies trying to grow up)
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To: highflight
So they have no intention of working with President Bush for the next 4 years.

OH NO! You mean we're going have to get things done without their help???? Gosh its like repeating the LAST 4 years!

8 posted on 01/19/2005 2:24:10 PM PST by Bommer
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To: RWR8189

Morris needs a fix. Anybody got some toes?


9 posted on 01/19/2005 2:24:23 PM PST by sergeantdave (Help save the environment. Mail your old tires and garbage to the local Sierra Club.)
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To: RWR8189
Woodrow Wilson lost Congress, then couldn't bring America into the League of Nations.

Sounds like a success.

10 posted on 01/19/2005 2:26:10 PM PST by martin_fierro (Holder of an M.A. Degree in The Obvious)
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To: RWR8189

Complaining about clinton again?!?


11 posted on 01/19/2005 2:28:39 PM PST by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: RWR8189

I forget....did Morris fail in Clinton's first term, or his second?


12 posted on 01/19/2005 2:31:00 PM PST by anniegetyourgun
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To: Bommer; Taliesan
Right - I should have added - Ferraro was giving the Dems' usual rote comments.....did not even bother to include the obligatory "what is best for the Country"
13 posted on 01/19/2005 2:35:46 PM PST by highflight (from a distance - buzzards might appear as eagles.)
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To: RWR8189
Ronald Reagan had Iran-Contra
To sum up Reagan's second term with these words is a very stupid thing to do.
14 posted on 01/19/2005 2:39:31 PM PST by samtheman
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To: Darkwolf377

With all due respect, in his second term he passed the major tax reform bill that resulted in fewer tax brackets in return for eliminating most tax shelters. That was the closest we came to a flat tax. Also, he gave the "tear down that wall" speech. I just don't see the failure.


15 posted on 01/19/2005 2:41:23 PM PST by Honestfreedom
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To: Honestfreedom

I'm with you on this - I just don't think it's reasonable to expect a president to go full flank ahead reforming the country for eight straight years. Political battles take time and energy, and eight years of them has got to be a lot to take.


16 posted on 01/19/2005 2:48:51 PM PST by MIT-Elephant ("Armed with what? Spitballs?")
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To: Honestfreedom

That's pretty clear. The tear down the wall speech was great, but it wasn't a magic summons. The tax situation isn't as you say, though, and rather than get into a big debate over it I'll just let you believe as you do. Iran Contra, deficits, bloated government and more contradict that view, though.


17 posted on 01/19/2005 2:53:00 PM PST by Darkwolf377 (Weak men are scared of strong women.)
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To: sergeantdave; SortaBichy
He "got some" just this past weekend...


18 posted on 01/19/2005 2:53:25 PM PST by ErnBatavia (ErnBatavia, Boxer, Pelosi, Thomas...the ultimate nightmare Menage a Quatro)
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To: Honestfreedom

Yeah, but you have to accomplish something to be a good President in both terms. The second term, as I recall, he put in a tax 'compromise' that was really a tax increase.

I like Reagan, too, but I don't remember his second term being really productive for conservatives. Certainly not like the first two years were.


19 posted on 01/19/2005 3:15:46 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (NO BLOOD FOR CHOCOLATE! Get the UN-ignoring, unilateralist Frogs out of Ivory Coast!)
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To: RWR8189

Dick Morris: How self-obsessed pundits get overblown in the media.


20 posted on 01/19/2005 3:19:00 PM PST by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: RWR8189

"[regarding social security] the answer is to link retirement age to life expectancy."

Not a bad idea at all. Except life expectancy is mutable and would change every year, and life expectancy is set by factors that probably would be difficult for government to prevent people and legislators from gaming.


21 posted on 01/19/2005 3:25:36 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (NO BLOOD FOR CHOCOLATE! Get the UN-ignoring, unilateralist Frogs out of Ivory Coast!)
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To: RWR8189
Reagan and Clinton suffered because their party was not in control of the House and Senate. The Dems don't have a great scandal waiting in the wings and the GOP won't allow it to slow down Bush anyways. GW Bush is in much better shape to have a much stronger second term. Reagan did make some great accomplishments in his second term in the international arena, but the Democrats stopped Reagan from doing much domestically.
22 posted on 01/19/2005 3:54:21 PM PST by Always Right
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To: RWR8189

Thanks a lot. I cannot resist opening a post with Dick opinining; then I hate myself and have to wash my computer - with bleach.


23 posted on 01/19/2005 4:00:34 PM PST by don-o (Stop Freeploading. Do the right thing and become a Monthly Donor.)
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To: RWR8189

Good old Dick Morris.

He always presents his ideas with enthusiasm, no matter how far fetched they are.

Bush will not get away with forcing a single solution over a multi generational problem with social security.

But if he will open his ears, he has a chance to put a solution in place.

The question is, will he listen??

If his tax solution does not include getting rid of the IRS, then what does he solve?

He has a chance to fail in a spectacular way. Or to succeed in a way that is responsive to the people. It is one heck of a test.


24 posted on 01/19/2005 4:15:08 PM PST by Pylot
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To: RWR8189
There is only one thing that could slow Bush's second term, another 911 disaster.
25 posted on 01/19/2005 5:15:25 PM PST by rodguy911 (rodguy911:First Let's get rid of the UN and the ACLU,..toss in CAIR as well.)
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To: ErnBatavia

Okay, I see Dick got his toe fix....BUT Dick's back is facing away from the female and the female's toes are facing away from Dick.

Did he twist her foot off?


26 posted on 01/19/2005 6:09:17 PM PST by sergeantdave (Help save the environment. Mail your old tires and garbage to the local Sierra Club.)
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To: RWR8189

Well the Morris prediction cinches it, W is going to have a Successful Second Term.


27 posted on 01/19/2005 6:11:27 PM PST by bray (The Rather-hate Scandal was to support Fraudulant 911)
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To: RWR8189

Dick Morris is dumb. And like his former boss who'm he turned traitor on when .... well you know that story. Anyway like his former boss he gets his views from whichever way the winds blowing today. Tomorrow he'll be declaring just the opposite.

When you get him and Orielly together its positive painful to watch.


28 posted on 01/19/2005 7:17:15 PM PST by festus (The constitution may be flawed but its a whole lot better than what we have now.)
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To: LibertarianInExile

I don't think the 86 tax law was an increase. It resulted in two brackets and elimination of lots of deductions. He did agree to an increase in 82 which we should be angry about but the 86 tax law was a good one.


29 posted on 01/19/2005 9:01:53 PM PST by Honestfreedom
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To: Honestfreedom; Darkwolf377
Also, he gave the "tear down that wall" speech. I just don't see the failure.

It was during Reagan's second term that he met Gorbachev at Reykjavik and refused to compromise on SDI. I remember the drubbing he took from the libs at the time - all they could talk about was how he had "squandered" the potential for weapons reduction. Reagan was right in holding his ground. Forcing the Soviets to respond to the prospect of a functional and deployed SDI system helped tumble the Communist regime, IMO.

30 posted on 01/19/2005 9:06:45 PM PST by Denver Ditdat (Ronald Reagan belongs to the ages now, but we preferred it when he belonged to us.)
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To: Honestfreedom
With all due respect, in his second term he passed the major tax reform bill that resulted in fewer tax brackets in return for eliminating most tax shelters. That was the closest we came to a flat tax. Also, he gave the "tear down that wall" speech. I just don't see the failure.

Wasn't social security overhauled in 1988 which extended its projected viability to the numbers quoted today?

31 posted on 01/19/2005 9:08:43 PM PST by Go Gordon (If at first you don't succeed...skydiving is not for you.)
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To: LibertarianInExile
Yep, we're real productive out there in the rat-race after 65.

Not to mention that the corporate world figures that once you get 30 yrs in with the company and are over 55, they just push you out the door (unless you have achieved upper management).

Not everybody gets treated like Dan Rather.

Quite a few Pubs will be retiring from Congress themselves if they jump on raising the age.
32 posted on 01/19/2005 9:24:02 PM PST by Dysfunctional
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To: ErnBatavia

Morris got a toe stuck up his nose....


33 posted on 01/19/2005 9:28:18 PM PST by spokeshave (Strategery + Schardenfreude = Stratenschardenfreudery)
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To: RWR8189

Reagan's second term a "failure"?

LOL!

Mr. Doom and gloom looking to pick up a few bucks and call attention to himself?

I have NO clue on WHY anyone listens to the "toe sucker".


34 posted on 01/19/2005 9:30:52 PM PST by nmh (Intelligent people recognize Intelligent Design (God).)
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To: nmh

Reagan's second term gave us the 1986 tax increase; the largest ever up to that point.


35 posted on 01/19/2005 9:36:16 PM PST by Doctor Stochastic (Vegetabilisch = chaotisch is der Charakter der Modernen. - Friedrich Schlegel)
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To: LibertarianInExile
I like Reagan, too, but I don't remember his second term being really productive for conservatives.

Perhaps you forgot Rejkavik, which caused international communism to topple.

36 posted on 01/19/2005 9:39:35 PM PST by Senator Goldwater
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To: Honestfreedom

The 86 tax hike killed the US economy.


37 posted on 01/19/2005 9:43:30 PM PST by John Lenin (I feel bad about myself because they really are sick)
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To: Dysfunctional

"Yep, we're real productive out there in the rat-race after 65. Not to mention that the corporate world figures that once you get 30 yrs in with the company and are over 55, they just push you out the door (unless you have achieved upper management). Not everybody gets treated like Dan Rather."

I would love to see statistics that back that up. In fact, most income earners make their biggest incomes after 50.

"Quite a few Pubs will be retiring from Congress themselves if they jump on raising the age."

Yeah, right. /sarcasm Who's gonna make them pay, already retired seniors? It's not like Congress has never raised the age before, and gosh, whoever did that was voted out of office immediately. NOT.

I would prefer we cash out the program entirely. It's theft. But the obvious way to solve the problem of perception that in cutting Social Security you're starving retirees is to cut the number of retirees that do rely on it. Hell, I wish they'd raise the age to 100. Then people who can never rely on it will be pissed the tax is so high and do something about it.


38 posted on 01/19/2005 9:59:33 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (NO BLOOD FOR CHOCOLATE! Get the UN-ignoring, unilateralist Frogs out of Ivory Coast!)
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To: anniegetyourgun
[ I forget....did Morris fail in Clinton's first term, or his second? ]

LoL.. Exactly right.. The pot looking at the kettle and saying ...DOH!..

39 posted on 01/19/2005 10:00:38 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been ok'ed me to included some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: Senator Goldwater

Maybe SDI was worth keeping, but I can balance that with the START signoff of middle-range nukes. We should have made them maintain ALL those arms stocks. It'd have been an even faster collapse.


40 posted on 01/19/2005 10:03:57 PM PST by LibertarianInExile (NO BLOOD FOR CHOCOLATE! Get the UN-ignoring, unilateralist Frogs out of Ivory Coast!)
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To: <1/1,000,000th%

C A C A (CACA)
Complaining about clinton again


41 posted on 01/19/2005 10:15:21 PM PST by US_MilitaryRules (W 1, Get Over It !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOW GO NUKE A MUSLIME CITY !!!!)
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Comment #42 Removed by Moderator

To: US_MilitaryRules

LOL!

I'm going to steal the CACA thing. ;)


43 posted on 01/20/2005 10:37:49 AM PST by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: John Lenin

No it did hurt the commercial real estate market which was hooked on tax breaks but if you believe in limited government you cannot prop up every government supported entity.


44 posted on 01/20/2005 12:23:15 PM PST by Honestfreedom
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To: Honestfreedom

The stock market crashed after the 87 tax hike, That hurt everyone not just the special interests.


45 posted on 01/20/2005 1:12:34 PM PST by John Lenin
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To: John Lenin

The stock market crash was a result of many things, not the least of which was James Baker talking the dollar down as a means to a trade war with Germany. The tax reform of 1986 was not a tax hike.


46 posted on 01/20/2005 1:34:53 PM PST by Honestfreedom
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To: Honestfreedom

You have no idea what you are talking about.


47 posted on 01/20/2005 1:49:06 PM PST by John Lenin
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