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Mark Steyn: The 'civil war' that wasn't
The Australian ^ | 1 February | Mark Steyn

Posted on 01/31/2005 6:11:24 AM PST by Eurotwit

AND so the "looming Iraqi election fiasco" joins "the brutal Afghan winter" and "the brutal Iraqi summer" and "the seething Arab street" and all the other junk in the overflowing trash can of post-9/11 Western media fictions. The sight of millions of brave voters emerging from polling stations holding high their purple dye-stained fingers was so inspiring that, from America's Democratic Party to European protest rallies, opponents of the war waited, oh, all of three minutes before flipping the Iraqis their own fingers, undyed.

"No one in the United States should try to over-hype this election," warned John Kerry yesterday before embarking on the world champion limbo dance of Iraqi election under-hyping.

He has a point. One vote does not a functioning democracy make. To be a truly advanced, sophisticated democracy you need an opposition party that knows how to react to good news by sounding whiny and grudging and moving the goalposts. "The real test is not the election," he declared, airily swatting aside 8 million voters. "The real test is..."

I dozed off at that point, so I'm unable to tell you what moved goalposts the senator inserted. But no doubt they involved, as they always do, the Bush administration needing to "reach out" more effectively to involve the "international community". "International community", by the way, doesn't mean Tony Blair, John Howard, the Poles, Japan, India, Fiji, et al but Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end. But, in an advanced, sophisticated democracy, that's how we define the "international community": no matter how many foreigners are in your coalition, it's unilateral unless Jacques is on board.

In Commonwealth countries, of course, we have the concept of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, so called because the Loyal Opposition carries on like a hysterical old queen. Thus, Kim Beazley, back in the saddle and already sore -- on the very eve of the Iraqi election triumph, when elementary prudence might have suggested waiting 24 hours before singing another refrain of When It's Quagmire Time on the Tigris.

But the old new Labor Party leader had barely taken possession of the keys to the executive washroom before he was "warning" the US that it risked being bogged down in -- all together now -- "a long-running civil war in Iraq".

How lame do you have to be to be the last guy on the planet to do the old "Iraq on the brink of civil war" routine? Just as "the brutal Afghan winter" that was supposed to mire shivering US forces in the graveyard of empire is now one-third of a decade behind schedule, so Iraq has now been "teetering on the brink of civil war" for coming up for two years. Brink-wise, that's quite a leisurely teeter. There's no danger of a "long-running civil war in Iraq". Instead, we've had a long-running hysteria about impending civil war in Iraq.

Indeed, as long runs go, predictions of Iraqi civil war are the Cats of doomsday scenarios -- except that, unlike Cats, it's all previews and no opening night. Tom Clark of Canada's CTV network was warning that "Iraq could be teetering on the brink of civil war" in August 2003. Graydon Carter, editor of the perfumed glossy Vanity Fair, was warning that Iraq was "on the brink of civil war" a month earlier.

To their credit, both men teetered on the brink of making a laughably inaccurate prediction and then plunged right in. What's the point of Beazley teetering on the brink of retirement for half a decade only to come back and hurl himself into the abyss of yesterday's cliches?

To hold a civil war you need two sides. Iraq fails to meet that minimum requirement. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -- not an Iraqi, incidentally -- has a few foreign jihadi, some enthusiastic head-hackers and a dwindling supply of suicide bombers, a job in which by definition it's hard to get people with experience. On election day, his guys bullied a kid with Down syndrome into taking the gig. You can't have a Sunni-Shia war because Zarqawi doesn't represent the Sunni. Meanwhile, in the face of his provocations, the Shia have been a model of restraint and discipline and political surefootedness. Beazley might learn a thing or two from them.

Granted, a footling suicide cult with no mass support will still blow up cars and burn buildings, and it's savvy enough to do so in parts of the country conveniently located so that Zarqawi's shills in the Western press corps don't have to stray far from their hotels tofilm it. Or as the internet satirist Scott Ott deftly summarised the coverage: "Iraqi Voting Disrupts News Reports of Bombings."

That's another sign that you're a mature, sophisticated democracy -- when you've got media so bogged down in the Vietnam-like quagmire of their ancient Vietnam quagmire analogies that they're unable to drag themselves free, whatever happens. The election was "an act of folly in the eyes of so many Iraqis", pronounced a confident Robert Fisk, the beloved comic doom-monger. Care to pin down that so many a bit more precisely, Robert?

In his own pre-election message, Zarqawi denounced the "evil" of democracy and warned any Iraqis who went along with it that they'd be regarded as having gone over to the other side. Yet at some Sunni Triangle precincts there were reports of 40per cent voter turnout -- courageous men and women who were willing to defy the thugs and murderers in their own so-called stronghold.

That's not how Paul McGeough, The Sydney Morning Herald's man in Baghdad, sees things. Zarqawi may have issued an explicit threat against voting in the election, but according to McGeough yesterday, you weren't

at risk of being killed for showing up but for staying away. "It was only a personal threat of violence that motivated some people to go to the polls." They came "only because of the gun at their backs".

How many would that be? Six million? Fourteen thousand? Couple of dozen? Hard to tell from McGeough's report. Perhaps he's just confused. Isn't it Australia where you're forced to vote whether you want to or not?

Three years ago, Jonathan Kay of Canada's National Post wrote that if Robert Mugabe turned up at an Arab League meeting he'd be the most democratically legitimate leader in the room. That's no longer true.

What happened on Sunday was a victory for the Iraqi people and a vindication for a relatively small group of Western politicians -- most notably the much-maligned US Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, whose faith in those Iraqi people turned out to be so much shrewder than the sneers of his detractors.

John Kerry is wrong. It's time for him and Ted Kennedy and Kim Beazley and Paul McGeough to stop under-hyping. If freedom isn't on the march, it's moving forward dramatically in a region notoriously inimical to it.

This weekend's election was a rebuke to the parochial condescension of the West's elites.

"These elections are a joke," Juan Cole, a professor of modern Middle East history at the University of Michigan, told Reuters. Sorry, professor, the joke's on you. And the modern Middle East history is being made by the fledgling democracy of the new Iraq.

Mark Steyn is a columnist with Britain's Telegraph group and a regular contributor to The Australian's Opinionpage.


TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: iraq; iraqielection; marksteyn
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To: Hegewisch Dupa; Eurotwit
Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end.

This has got to be the best line I have seen in a long time! I may have to "borrow" it (modified as necessary) for certain other notable pairs: Kerry/Edwards, Bill-n-Hill, etc.

41 posted on 01/31/2005 8:12:01 AM PST by RebelBanker (To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women!)
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To: Check_Your_Premises

To me, it's the really astounding thing about his writting. He has a least one of those sentences in every article he writes.


42 posted on 01/31/2005 8:14:36 AM PST by tjg
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To: Pokey78

After reading this, I have to get on the Mark Steyn ping list! I would appreciate it if you would be so kind as to add me to it. Thanks!


43 posted on 01/31/2005 8:15:19 AM PST by RebelBanker (To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of the women!)
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To: Eurotwit
but Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end.

Gotta love Steyn!

44 posted on 01/31/2005 8:16:55 AM PST by pgkdan
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To: Pokey78

Thanks for the ping. Another great article by the best writer in the business.


45 posted on 01/31/2005 8:17:50 AM PST by Max Combined
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To: Eurotwit
""These elections are a joke," Juan Cole, a professor of modern Middle East history at the University of Michigan, told Reuters. Sorry, professor, the joke's on you. And the modern Middle East history is being made by the fledgling democracy of the new Iraq."

Not a joke, but not 'all that' either. I think both sides are making too much of this election. Elections are a psychological boost, especially to a people who have been under the thumb of tyrants. The left should not make light of their importance. Sometimes just the knowledge that conditions can improve will give strong impetus for them to do so.

On the other hand, electing new leaders doesn't solve all problems. In many, perhaps most cases, people will be unhappy with the new leaders chosen, and many of the new leaders will be just as corrupt as the old. Another problem is many of the civil institutions older democratic countries take for granted, do not exist in Iraq or if they do, work only marginally.

It's simply too early to tell if democracy will be permanent in Iraq. The only thing for certain is that there will be continued violence, and that US troops will be stationed there for a very long time to come.

Twenty to thirty years would be my guess, but then we are still in Japan, Korea, and Germany, not to mention Kosovo and Bosnia, so it could be considerably longer.
46 posted on 01/31/2005 8:20:34 AM PST by monday
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To: Eurotwit
The joke's on the always behind the moment Left.

Denny Crane: "I want two things. First God and then Fox News."

47 posted on 01/31/2005 8:21:12 AM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: holden

Robert Fisk is a Brit leftist writer and a moron, but I am being redundant.


48 posted on 01/31/2005 8:22:00 AM PST by Max Combined
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To: Fenris6

a fingerprint to vote would do wonders here.


49 posted on 01/31/2005 8:29:35 AM PST by printhead
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To: Eurotwit
"Or as the internet satirist Scott Ott deftly summarised the coverage: "Iraqi Voting Disrupts News Reports of Bombings."

Yes, its brilliant, and it's here: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1331815/posts
50 posted on 01/31/2005 8:33:43 AM PST by Tolik
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To: monday
It's simply too early to tell if democracy will be permanent in Iraq.

I must reluctantly agree. The hard part starts now. They must now get down to the business of writing the constitution, and how it is structured will make all the difference. The greatest danger is that the resulting government becomes a standard third-world corrupt kleptocracy, and the Iraqi people turn to extremism. If Iraq turns out like South America, where there was a democratic revolution followed by economic collapse and nostalgia for authoritarian rule in many countries, Iraq's ability to serve as a beacon for the rest of the Arab world will be correspondingly diminished.

For the record, I don't think that's the most likely outcome, and you'd have to have a heart of stone not to be moved by the pictures of the last few days. Furthermore, Afghanistan has gone quite well so far. But there is still difficult work ahead building a self-governing society surrounded by a bunch of rulers for life all threatened by Iraqi success, and thus many pitfalls yet to overcome. What they do now that they've had the elections is as important as having had them to begin with.

51 posted on 01/31/2005 8:37:35 AM PST by untenured
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To: Eurotwit

btt


52 posted on 01/31/2005 8:40:36 AM PST by lilmsdangrus (hard work musta hurt somebody, somewhere....)
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To: Eurotwit

Mark Steyn is the best....he sees so clearly and states it so right on along with being very very funny. I love this guy!!! Thank You Mark.


53 posted on 01/31/2005 8:46:32 AM PST by shield (The Greatest Scientific Discoveries of the Century Reveal God!!!! by Dr. H. Ross, Astrophysicist)
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To: Eurotwit; shaggy eel; Byron_the_Aussie

<< .... Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end .... >>

Or chuck in either Kim Beazley [Although he could do the whole horse, solo] or Gerhardt Schroeder [If you can catch him sober] and the three of them can do the hind legs and the tail.

BUMPping


54 posted on 01/31/2005 8:52:25 AM PST by Brian Allen (I fly and can therefore be envious of no man -- Per Adua Ad Astra!)
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To: printhead
a fingerprint to vote would do wonders here

Unfortunately, it wouldn't do much about some of the dead who still seem to vote (crooked poll watchers) and ballot box stuffers (corrupted custody chain).

I'd say the stained finger is about one of three additional measures we should take here. Another one being a complete re-regstration, (2-photo IDs (match photos to person, scans of both IDs and facial measurement scan for the records), with addresses, and US mail, stamped and postmarked (not metered), delivered to the person at ID address) and no one who hasn't passed the process 30-days in advance gets to vote.

The third would be a very aggressive, cross-correllated follow-up on the ID, with stiff sentences for fraud--not necessarily tied to the actual act of voting.

HF

55 posted on 01/31/2005 8:54:50 AM PST by holden (holden awnuhnuh truth, de whole truth, 'n nuttin' but de truth)
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To: Eurotwit
Thanks for posting this in toto.

Dan

56 posted on 01/31/2005 8:58:31 AM PST by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
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To: Eurotwit
[ but Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end. ]

LoL....
Whats really funny is what is implied..
"and John Kerry is the FACE... or the front"

57 posted on 01/31/2005 8:59:53 AM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been ok'ed by me to included some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: Eurotwit

I ping, therefore, I am.


58 posted on 01/31/2005 9:01:20 AM PST by steveyp
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To: Eurotwit; Alamo-Girl; onyx; ALOHA RONNIE; SpookBrat; Republican Wildcat; Howlin; dixiechick2000; ...
Mark Steyn: The 'civil war' that wasn't

Excerpt:

AND so the "looming Iraqi election fiasco" joins "the brutal Afghan winter" and "the brutal Iraqi summer" and "the seething Arab street" and all the other junk in the overflowing trash can of post-9/11 Western media fictions. The sight of millions of brave voters emerging from polling stations holding high their purple dye-stained fingers was so inspiring that, from America's Democratic Party to European protest rallies, opponents of the war waited, oh, all of three minutes before flipping the Iraqis their own fingers, undyed.

"No one in the United States should try to over-hype this election," warned John Kerry yesterday before embarking on the world champion limbo dance of Iraqi election under-hyping.

He has a point. One vote does not a functioning democracy make. To be a truly advanced, sophisticated democracy you need an opposition party that knows how to react to good news by sounding whiny and grudging and moving the goalposts. "The real test is not the election," he declared, airily swatting aside 8 million voters. "The real test is..."

I dozed off at that point, so I'm unable to tell you what moved goalposts the senator inserted. But no doubt they involved, as they always do, the Bush administration needing to "reach out" more effectively to involve the "international community". "International community", by the way, doesn't mean Tony Blair, John Howard, the Poles, Japan, India, Fiji, et al but Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end. But, in an advanced, sophisticated democracy, that's how we define the "international community": no matter how many foreigners are in your coalition, it's unilateral unless Jacques is on board.

In Commonwealth countries, of course, we have the concept of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition, so called because the Loyal Opposition carries on like a hysterical old queen. Thus, Kim Beazley, back in the saddle and already sore -- on the very eve of the Iraqi election triumph, when elementary prudence might have suggested waiting 24 hours before singing another refrain of When It's Quagmire Time on the Tigris.


Please let me know if you want ON or OFF my General Interest ping list!. . .don't be shy.


59 posted on 01/31/2005 9:05:44 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (There is only one GOOD 'RAT: one that has been voted OUT of POWER !! Straight ticket GOP!)
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To: Eurotwit
Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end That line is so funny I stole it and am now using it in my tagline :-)
60 posted on 01/31/2005 9:08:28 AM PST by freepatriot32 (Jacques Chirac and Kofi Annan, a pantomime horse in which both men are playing the rear end. M.Steyn)
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