Posted on 02/02/2005 11:42:34 AM PST by presidio9
The Federal Reserve raised its short-term interest rate target by a quarter of a percentage point for the sixth time, and signaled little change in its plan to continue raising rates gradually in the months ahead.
The rate change, which was expected, brings the target for the federal-funds rate, charged on overnight loans between banks, to 2.5% from 2.25%. It was 1% last June.
The statement accompanying the rate change was almost identical to that issued after its last meeting on Dec. 14. Economic growth is "moderate," the jobs market is improving "gradually," and inflation is "well contained." It said it could continue to raise rates at a "measured" pace, and that risks to both economic growth and price stability were "roughly equal."
The move was unanimous among the 12 voting members of the 19-member Federal Open Market Committee, the central bank's decision making body.
The lack of change to the Fed's message reflects the fact that the economy and inflation have largely progressed as expected for the last few months.
(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...
Bush needs to rain in the Fed bank if housing dips too much.
They must see some good signs of economic growth over the next few quarters that may need the reins pulled to keep it from becoming over-inflationary. Keeping a steady growth without the spikes.......
Heck I hear this morning it was going to be raised a 1/2 point........
hear = heard
"Bush needs to rain in the Fed bank if housing dips too much."
No financial expert here, but from what I understand we're experiencing a rate hike in short term rates but steady to falling long term rates.
This should insulate the housing industry at least for now?
Fed Reserve Technocrati strike again...
Marx would be proud.
Ham on rye, kiss your sister, as advertised.
Some adjustables are tied to short term rates. But the housing market is not going to collapse even with high rates, only become realistic in certain markets. People who are currently buying $600,000 houses with interest-only or adjustables are speculating on price increases. That speculation, and the corresponding ridiculous prices in certain markets, will end with higher rates. And that is a good thing.
That's still pretty low; you'll see common home mortgages at 10 Yr Treas + .5% (perhaps not the average rate, but still common)...so 4.65% should be doable right now.
...And home loans under 5% while our economy is growing (new home starts are at historical records) are good deals.
Fannie Mae is ticking bomb. When she blows, there's nothing Bush will be able to do about the damage to the housing market.
Given the GSEs make their money by borrowing short term and lending long, NO. Given that they've been borrowing Euros, Yen,Yuan etc. short term and lending dollars long term, Hell No.
No, Marx would be freaked out by a free Market that permits corporations to get interest-free money by issuing stock, by private home-ownership, and by a mortgage industry that gets and loans more money to and from private homeowners than from the government.
Keep in mind that just because *banks* may follow the Fed's lead on interest rates, that the private Market still sets interest rates on Treasury bonds, treasury bills, and home mortgages (among other things).
In fact, Marx claimed that *every* capitalistic society would dive so far and so fast economically that their populations would become impoverished and the people would rise up in armed rebellion.
Marx hasn't been right yet. Compare the U.S. and Japan to Cuba and North Korea after Marxism.
That's backwards. Declines in the Dollar (as implied above) drive *up* home prices.
They serve their masters well!
Precisely.
No, expansion of credit plus false incentives for home indebtedness (not ownership) inflates home prices. This ultimately leads to dollar declines, but as I have said many times, inflation is neither instantaneous or homogeneous.
(here we go again)
Oh!!! I love it when ya talk dirty like that!!!
I'm locked in 30 at 5.
Funny, I didn't hear you defend the Fed once in that entire rant. :)
Damn it! Why can't we be more European?
Today Germany announces unemployment at 12.5% http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1334421/posts
I thought the Dems like Hillary say the economy is about to collapse. here's a question, if higher rates are a monetary attempt to keep growth in check, why would the fed raise rates if the economy is collapsing like Hillary says?
My bad 12.1%
Inflation need be neither instaneous nor homgenous; your home value is still going to increase at or above that rate of inflation.
Inflation, by definition, means that assets cost more. That applies to your biggest asset, your house, as well.
Nor is home ownership "home indebtedness." Unless you paid too much originally...and even then it is merely a matter of time before your appreciating asset overtakes your depreciating debt.
Remember: inflation reduces your debt, too.
Economic growth is deflationary. The Fed is raising rates to support the dollar.
Keep an eye on the yield curve.
I am just glad that we locked in our 5.75% this week. Dang that was close!
Egads! My credit interest rate will be increasing also.
It won't rain in the bank, but any dripping inside the house could be a sign that the roof is leaking.
You're right about inflating home prices.
But-so you're saying only someone with $100,000 in the bank should own a house?? If people SAVED to pay 100% cash for a home, about 84 people nationwide would own all of the houses across the country.
No, I'm distinguishing between home ownership and home indebtness. "Ownership" is a bit of a joke anyway since most people only have color of title not an actual title to their homes.
There is a reasonable balance here. Credit, when used wisely, can be a great thing, both individually, and for the economy. However, giving credit cards to high school girls with no job and a love for shopping at the Gap is just stupid and I fear what may happen in the future as a result.
What is your opinion of real estate/property taxes?
What do you consider ownership of a home?
I'm genuinely curious.
No, inflation is an increase in the money supply. The nonlinear effect on prices depends on the past history of the system.
Nobody would argue that owned your toothbrush if you had to pay the government $1 every year to keep them from taking it away. This is called renting.
In order to own a home in America you are generally required to pay arbitrary tribute to the local political authority. Usually these funds are used for the indoctrination of children.
Heh. Nicely done.
If everyone heard it worded that way on a daily basis instead of "property taxes for education" people would suddenly become a lot more conservative, methinks.
You need to question your sources. After the lousy January that we had, the only possiblity other than +25 was nothing.
People who rent also pay that tribute. The reality is owners do own something with market value, and they almost always do better than renters over the long run.
I'd argue that the fed needs to remain as independent as possible from the executive branch, as it has been for the last couple of centuries or so.
A boost in short-term rates could cause long-term rates to fall by slowing the economy down over the long haul. However there is no immediate direct correlation between fed hikes in the discount rates and interest rates for long term loans like mortgages.
The bigger pressure on long-term rates comes from federal borrowing, which shows no signs of abating. From numerous reports it sounds like Bush will call for a freeze in about 1/6th of federal spending tonight, what about the other 5/6ths? Well, most of that goes to Medicare, SS, defense and interest on the debt, which nobody has a plan to reduce (instead the plans are to increase spending on SS and Medicare).
Can you explain that in more detail please ?
With all due respect that is incorrect. I have 3 substantial commercial mortgages pending closing right now. 20-30 year rates are up even more than the corresponding Fed rate hikes. I could fix a 20 year amortization-five year balloon at 5.00% last year. Now the same loan is 6.5%....25 basis points over the hikes. They are doing this to cushion the trend upwards. Greenspan is extremely legacy conscious about inflation. I think he likes to keep a governor on both the debt and equity markets a wee bit much. Of course what he does affects my cash flow markedly so I'm prejudiced. I just don't see an overheated economy that needs reigning back....the only inflationary items are the usual....petro, medical care and education. Of course petro hikes doppler the whole shebang but that is cyclical. I'm going 3 year balloons for now. I assume Prime is now 5.5% as of this latest hike.
Residential mortgages are a somewhat different animal but also reflect the Fed rate as well....among other factors.
They like a lot more than 50 basis points above 10 year Ts on commercial...sadly.
Life is not fair.
HEY EVERYONE, CHECK OUT THIS REALLY NEAT LINK!!
but that's just because I'm a chart/info freak.
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