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Iranian Alert - February 5, 2005 - Iran goal: Nuke in first 6 months of 2005
Regime Change Iran ^ | 2.5.2005 | DoctorZin

Posted on 02/05/2005 3:42:25 AM PST by DoctorZIn

Top News Story

Iran goal: Nuke in first 6 months of 2005

Iranian opposition group NCRI claims in Paris that Iran hopes to develop a nuclear bomb “in first half of 2005.” Spokesman says Tehran has obtained polonium-210 and beryllium to start chain reaction for nuclear fission, hiding these processes from UN watchdog. Iran is already far advanced on two additional elements for bomb – nuclear fuel and delivery system.

A Daily Briefing of Major News Stories on Iran:

Iran gives `Israeli spy' 10 years in jail - Reuters

Tehran Friday Sermon: Iranians Will Punch Americans in the Mouth So Hard All Their Devouring Teeth Will Fall Out - MemriTV.org

Germany's Neo-Gaullism - Tech Central Station

The Case for Democracy

Rice: Attacking Iran Is 'Not on Agenda' - Robin Wright, The Washington Post

16 trucks carrying weapons en route from Iran discovered in Iraq - Iran Focus

Biden: Consider Iran's 'emotional needs' : WorldNetDaily.com

Iran said to allow UN agency inspection - Boston Globe

Iran blasts Rice's speech - Aljazeera

Behind the smiles – The Times

America's tough rhetoric on Iran – BBC News

Senate Committee Focuses on CIA's Iranian Assessments - LA Times



TOPICS: Extended News; Foreign Affairs; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: alqaedaandiran; armyofmahdi; axisofevil; axisofweasels; ayatollah; azadi; binladen; cannistraro; china; cleric; elbaradei; eu; freedom; freedomdeficit; germany; humanrights; iaea; insurgency; iran; iranianalert; iraq; irgc; iri; islam; islamicrepublic; japan; journalist; kazemi; khamenei; khatami; khatemi; lsadr; moqtadaalsadr; mullahs; muslims; persecution; persia; persian; politicalprisoners; protests; rafsanjani; religionofpeace; revolutionaryguard; rumsfeld; russia; satellitetelephones; shiite; southasia; southwestasia; studentmovement; studentprotest; terrorism; terrorists; us; vevak; wot; zawahir

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin

1 posted on 02/05/2005 3:42:28 AM PST by DoctorZIn
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To: Pan_Yans Wife; fat city; freedom44; Tamsey; Grampa Dave; PhiKapMom; McGavin999; Hinoki Cypress; ...
Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

2 posted on 02/05/2005 3:44:12 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn
Maybe Iran will get a nuke in the first 6 months of 2005.
3 posted on 02/05/2005 3:49:27 AM PST by snarks_when_bored
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To: DoctorZIn

Bump!


4 posted on 02/05/2005 4:09:47 AM PST by windchime (Hillary: "I've always been a preying person")
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To: AdmSmith

From, "16 trucks carrying weapons en route from Iran discovered in Iraq - Iran Focus "

"those arrested admitted to being agents of Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security (MOIS), and said that lodging had been provided for them in Samara, Balad, Najaf, and Latifiyeh.

The individuals revealed that they work working on behalf of the MOIS in conjunction with Iran's Fajr Forces. During interrogation the Iranian agents also revealed the names of a number of Fajr commanders and MOIS agents whom they worked for."

Good interrogating. Sounds like the Pakistanis.


5 posted on 02/05/2005 4:37:06 AM PST by nuconvert (No More Axis of Evil by Christmas ! TLR)
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To: DoctorZIn

Time to fish or cut bait, Israel.


6 posted on 02/05/2005 4:55:09 AM PST by 7.62 x 51mm ( veni vidi vino visa "I came, I saw, I drank wine, I shopped")
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To: DoctorZIn

BTTT


7 posted on 02/05/2005 5:14:56 AM PST by Gritty ("Great Universal Theory...whatever happens, the real issue is the rottenness of America-Mark Steyn)
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To: DoctorZIn

bttt!


8 posted on 02/05/2005 5:17:36 AM PST by Jet Jaguar
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To: snarks_when_bored; DoctorZIn; SJackson; dennisw; veronica

<< Maybe Iran will get a nuke in the first 6 months of 2005. >>

If it is what it takes to ensure that leg of evil's stool is never nuclear armed, I am sure the Nation of Israel will spare it one.

Or, come to that, as many as it takes.

Shabat Shalom -- B A


9 posted on 02/05/2005 7:18:07 AM PST by Brian Allen (I fly and can therefore be envious of no man -- Per Adua Ad Astra!)
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To: nuconvert

What is the Fajr Forces?


10 posted on 02/05/2005 8:00:54 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: snarks_when_bored

The are planning to have one nuke prior to the presidential election June 17.


11 posted on 02/05/2005 8:03:44 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: AdmSmith

I dunno. A year ago I was reading articles saying that "in 6 months Iran will reach the point of no return" nuke-wise. Then last summer Israel was saying that Iran would reach the point of no return by Jan. 2005. Then last fall the Mad Mullahs were demanding a nuke/nukes by last month or the scientists weren't muslims. Now this article says nukes within 6 months. Maybe Iran already has nukes. Maybe Iran will never have nukes. Either some of this reporting is deliberate nonsense or someone's Intelligence Network ain't worth a damn. Maybe a little bit of both, eh?


12 posted on 02/05/2005 8:19:22 AM PST by Reborn
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To: AdmSmith

A wing of the IRGC? Not familiar with them.


13 posted on 02/05/2005 8:41:08 AM PST by nuconvert (No More Axis of Evil by Christmas ! TLR)
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To: Reborn; DoctorZIn; nuconvert; freedom44; F14 Pilot; Khashayar

My guesses: After studying the power play by North Korea Iran decided to get nukes as soon as possible. The effort was given top priority when Saddam was removed. However, they have had some technical problems with the uranium enrichment process that caused delays of the program.

The Supreme Mad Mullah demanded last year that those problems should be dealt with ASAP. Their present plan is to have at least one nuke by the start of the Iranian year of 1384 starting March 21, 2005.

This will be a big issue in the election and if they will be unable to have a nuke by then, there will be a big infight among the Mad Mullahs. My guess is that the Qods Force will try to get rid of Rafsanjani.


14 posted on 02/05/2005 8:42:54 AM PST by AdmSmith
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To: nuconvert; AdmSmith

Yeah... That is it!


15 posted on 02/05/2005 9:17:24 AM PST by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: F14 Pilot

It could also be that some intelligence groups could be hyping the estimate for when Iran would have a nuclear weapon, thereby encouraging action against Iran sooner than later. Somewhat similar to what Ahmed Chalabi did with Iraq. Although not necessarily the same motives, of course.

But it does warrant repeating the day may come when we have waited too long. After the original Gulf War in 1991, the United States was surprised to learn how far along Saddam was with his WMD programs.

If you think about it, it is difficult to know exactly where Iran is with their nuclear program. We don't have real-time information. Now, if they spun up their centrifuges, we'd know about it. Right now, Iran seems to be doing everything but spinning their centrifuges. They are in a sort of idiotic voluntary agreement not to use the centrifuges. But Iran said that thry will break the agreement when they see fit. Which will probably be in spring or summer 2005, I think.

My greatest fear is that Iran will nuke Baghdad. Of course, Tehran would be nuked hours later, bringing about regime change. The war in Iraq would end up being a disaster, and both countries would be in total chaos. We wouldn't necessarily lose the war on terror right then, but it would be an enormous defeat. Even Bush might pull what American forces remained out of Iraq. Let's hope we don't have to find out what Bush would do.


16 posted on 02/05/2005 11:25:09 AM PST by JWojack (Rice for President in 2008!)
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To: JWojack
My greatest fear is that Iran will nuke Baghdad. Of course, Tehran would be nuked hours later, bringing about regime change.

Where did you get this theory from? lol

17 posted on 02/05/2005 11:26:32 AM PST by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: nuconvert; AdmSmith; freedom44

Search result on Ayatollah Taleghani

http://search.yahoo.com/search?fr=slv1-&p=ayatollah+taleghani

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=ayatollah+taleghani


18 posted on 02/05/2005 11:31:18 AM PST by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: JWojack
Iran has centrifuges spinning as we speak.

My sources say the "test" centrifuges are spinning as we speak to mask the hidden centrifuge program near by.

I hope we have time.
19 posted on 02/05/2005 11:55:28 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: DoctorZIn

Then the US or Israel has got to go in now and worry about evrything else later. No buts about it.


20 posted on 02/05/2005 12:01:06 PM PST by Paul_Denton (Shoot first and ask questions later)
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To: F14 Pilot
My greatest fear is that Iran will nuke Baghdad. Of course, Tehran would be nuked hours later, bringing about regime change.

Where did you get this theory from? lol


Actually, I got the theory from myself. Here's my thinking:

The top three targets in the confirmed range of the Shahab Iranian missles, in my opinion, are probably Baghdad, Tel Aviv, or a major U.S. troop concentration. The Shahab 4 (the Iranians won't call it a '4', but it's a big step up from the '3') would put most of Europe in the crosshairs. But it will probably be a couple of years before the '4' is ready. The Iranians say that it's only for putting satellites in space. Yes, you could, and you could also put a nuke on it and put it on a ballistic trajectory. The Europeans would then wish they had a missle defense system.

Like Colin Powell said last year, you don't have a missle-based weapon without a payload.

Of course, they could also hand off a nuke to their favorite terror group, and try to smuggle it into the U.S. Very difficult to do, but I don't have a lot of faith in American border security.

Let's just concentrate on the capabilities of the Shahab-3. The Iranians want nukes to establish, they think, a security fence around their country, so that they can support terrorists as much as they want with no threat of military action. Also, they'll want nukes so that they can use them.

Now, if you are going to use a nuke, what target would be the most damaging to the "good guys" ? Nuking Baghdad would end coalition operations in Iraq as we know them today. We talk about last week's elections in Iraq as perhaps the first domino to fall in the Middle East. The election never happened if Baghdad gets nuked. Iin the aftermath, I guess the remaining coalition forces would attempt to try to get a handle on the utterly chaotic situation. It would take years to do so, if we decide to stick it out. I think we would, but it's hard to tell. I'm sure the American Left would be screaming its head off to get Bush to leave Iraq.

In the event of a Baghdad nuking, Tehran is vaporized very shortly thereafter. I mean, there is no way that doesn't happen. Any nuking of any target is absolutely suicidal, in my opinion.

I think at that point we would be wishing that it was merely World War II all over again.

I think Tel Aviv is the prime Israeli target. Tel Aviv is considered by the world except Israeli to be the Jewish capital. Jerusalem never gets bombed for multiple reasons.

I'd love to hear someone argue that nuking some other target within the range of the Shahab-3 missle, other than Baghdad, would cause more damage.

Now, there is another thing. What if Iran sets off a nuclear bomb at a test site within its own borders? It demonstrates that Iran is a nuclear power. Iran would soon begin blackmailing the world with its new power. Would the US or Israel immediately take aggressive action? I would hope so, but I'm not optimistic. At least on the American side. I would sort of anticipate an Israeli attack. Surely you can't sit back and wait for regime change while Iran keeps building more nuclear bombs.

I've never seen anywhere, even once, someone suggesting that Iran may target Baghdad. But if I'm the mullahs, and I want to maximum destruction, that's probably what my target would be.

21 posted on 02/05/2005 3:16:20 PM PST by JWojack (Rice for President in 2008!)
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To: DoctorZIn

I thought that part of the deal with Europe last October was that Iran had to shut down the centifuges, but then Iran warned the world that they would start them up again whenever they felt like doing so. Maybe not?

Either way, the Americans know. It can't be hidden.

I am aware that the Iranian plan was to use the 20 or so test centifuges to mask the operation of the thousands other centifuges. If you're right, then that is very bad.

We may not know when they have the bomb until they detonate one.


22 posted on 02/05/2005 3:26:49 PM PST by JWojack (Rice for President in 2008!)
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To: nuconvert; MeekOneGOP; Happy2BMe; Grampa Dave; devolve; onyx; potlatch; ntnychik; DoctorZIn; ...
Speaking to the Iraqi daily Al-Mashreq, the source said that the weapons included rifles, mortar rounds, and explosives.

Act of war. The attack begins in five minutes.

That puke Dennis Ross today was whimpering that either support for Iran regime change had to be "in the open" in which case it is "about principle" or it had to be "covert" and he whined "our record there has been very poor".

Uh, no, Dennis, we don't need any advice from the party that betrayed the Shah and enabled the Ayatollah to create the Islamofascist dictatorship in the first place, thank you very much.

Attack begins in four minutes.

Attention mullahs and mullah-in-laws: get outta Dodge, join the Roaming Gnome, book a room on Travelocity and don't forget your turban.

Attack begins in three minutes.

23 posted on 02/05/2005 7:21:35 PM PST by PhilDragoo (Hitlery: das Butch von Buchenvald)
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To: JWojack

That never happens


24 posted on 02/05/2005 10:40:04 PM PST by F14 Pilot (Democracy is a process not a product)
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To: DoctorZIn
This thread is now closed.

Join Us At Today's Iranian Alert Thread – The Most Underreported Story Of The Year!

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail DoctorZin”

25 posted on 02/06/2005 2:36:34 AM PST by DoctorZIn (Until they are Free, "We shall all be Iranians!")
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To: JWojack

Difficult situation, I agree. I propose we consider a surprise option...nuke France.


26 posted on 02/06/2005 2:48:30 AM PST by I_dmc
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To: PhilDragoo
Attention mullahs and mullah-in-laws: get outta Dodge, join the Roaming Gnome, book a room on Travelocity and don't forget your turban.

Attack begins in three minutes.

"Mullah-in-laws", LOLOL! I love that.


27 posted on 02/06/2005 2:58:01 AM PST by MeekOneGOP (There is only one GOOD 'RAT: one that has been voted OUT of POWER !! Straight ticket GOP!)
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