It could also be that some intelligence groups could be hyping the estimate for when Iran would have a nuclear weapon, thereby encouraging action against Iran sooner than later. Somewhat similar to what Ahmed Chalabi did with Iraq. Although not necessarily the same motives, of course.
But it does warrant repeating the day may come when we have waited too long. After the original Gulf War in 1991, the United States was surprised to learn how far along Saddam was with his WMD programs.
If you think about it, it is difficult to know exactly where Iran is with their nuclear program. We don't have real-time information. Now, if they spun up their centrifuges, we'd know about it. Right now, Iran seems to be doing everything but spinning their centrifuges. They are in a sort of idiotic voluntary agreement not to use the centrifuges. But Iran said that thry will break the agreement when they see fit. Which will probably be in spring or summer 2005, I think.
My greatest fear is that Iran will nuke Baghdad. Of course, Tehran would be nuked hours later, bringing about regime change. The war in Iraq would end up being a disaster, and both countries would be in total chaos. We wouldn't necessarily lose the war on terror right then, but it would be an enormous defeat. Even Bush might pull what American forces remained out of Iraq. Let's hope we don't have to find out what Bush would do.
Where did you get this theory from? lol
Difficult situation, I agree. I propose we consider a surprise option...nuke France.