Poll Shows Drop in Bush's Job Approval (52% polled were Democrats)

AP via Yahoo News ^ | 2/11/05 | WILL LESTER

[alloysteel]

The Democrat misrepresentations about the effects of Social Security reform are the basis of most of the slippage among those aged 50 and over.

This is one "over 65" who is not swayed by this constant barrage of distortions from the Democrats. I believe in George W. Bush on a broad range of the issues, but on one, the porous borders, there remains a LOT to be done.

[gunnedah]

The AARP has a lot to do with this. During the election those on their Internet site crucified Bush. I am 66 years old and am ashamed of the Seniors on that site and any who seem so selfish.
I need my Social Security but care more for my children and those who I will leave behind.
My studying leaves me to believe that people in poverty receive only about 12% of what Social Security provides and that tells me 88% of SS goes to people who may be well off so why should they raise so much hell about this change.
Getting back to the AARP site, from what I read it showed me if those were truly Seniors on there they were very selfish. I was truly ashamed of most of them and their whining.
My only hangup and it is a big one on these contributions going to the stock market is the way that the market is manipulated and the insider information and salaries of CEO's. That could cause me not to want to change the system but I think it should be left up to those it will affect, not me.
We are truly a spoiled nation!

[jveritas]

The number who think the country is headed down the wrong track increased from 51 percent to 58 percent in the past month.

The liberal democrats and the DLM (defeated liberal media) were playing and hyping this right track wrong track crap in 2004 and they were sure that because more people believe the country is going into the wrong track then Bush was going to lose the November election.

And now they are still using the same analysis and projections that lead them into an utter defeat. I am more convinced then ever that the majority of liberals are dumb, and that it is why they are suffering one crushing defeat after another. They must change so dramatically and get rid of so many morons among them so they can have a chance in winning, and this will take at least 10 years to achieve.

[jch10]

I'm in that age group. Wonder why they don't ever ask me???

[Always Right]

Associated Press-Ipsos poll????? Never heard of this, is this something they just started last month. The poll has no track record and therefore little credibility.

[Admin Moderator]

Bttt

[Admin Moderator]

Check up top ;)

[harpu]

Never buy-in to a poll unless you get copy of ALL questions asked and in what sequence they are asked.

[slowhand520]

This is hysterical! Whenever Bush comes out with strong poll numbers the AP always runs a cockamamy poll to counter.

[Iowegian]

Thanks for the add on. Yes I remember their election polls, and their total inaccuracy. The timing of this is very suspect as well.

[Coldwater Creek]

Your plan sounds reasonable to me.

[NavyCanDo]

Nothing different than what happened 4 years ago. It's the same recipe for him falling in the polls then as it is now. In 2001, Bush came out with his budget, the press focused on program spending cuts (which is usually reduced increases). If the budget cut involves Veterans, kids, or the elderly, or farmers then it made the first 10 min of the news night after night. Then the stonewallng Dems would make sure it stayed in the news. Remember back on 9/10/01 Bushes poll numbers where in the dumps.

[mtntop3]

What else could be expected after the National Association of Retired Persons runs a $million-plus advertising campaign to fulminate over Social Security reform?

The bureaucrats in the NARP regularly play to the fears of those who (lavishly) support them.

It is the young - who support all the SS retirees - who will be the sector that is with Bush and with all working for reform.

[F16Fighter]

"You could be a Bush supporter and still think the country was headed down the wrong track, i.e. too liberal, too much government debt, etc."

"Etc." = Lax Border Enforcement and Lax Illegal Immigration Policy.

Dubya had better do a 180, or else the GOP is shot in the next election.

The President has clearly demonstrated he's clearly Pro-Open Border and Pro-Illegal Immigration.

[mtntop3]

Correction - that should be AARP (American Association of Retired Persons) instead of NARP. I was ONCE a AARP member - but soon recognized its predilection for the DNC, as have many others.

[dvwjr]

This is another Associated Press 'hit' poll conducted by their polling firm Ipsos-Public Affairs. Let us take a look at their January 3-5, 2005 Bush approval rating of "49% Approve, 49% Disapprove" from another FR message thread which shows how the AP poll manages to get it slant by of course, stacking the poll respondent deck...

"Bush's approval rating is at 49 percent in the AP poll with 49 percent disapproving among all of those polled. His job approval is in the high 40s or low 50s in several other recent polls — as low as any job approval rating for a re-elected president at the start of the second term in more than 50 years.

Well, we just had an election where we have data from 13,660 respondents in the 2004 Presidential election poll. Let's forget that 'bad' exit poll results used for election night predictions that the MSM used and use the data the way it was supposed to be used, the characterize the voters...

2004 Exit Poll Vote by Party ID:
*********************************

37% Republican
37% Democrat
26% Independent 

Source: CNN: US President/National/Exit Poll data for November 2nd, 2004.

Ok, so what was the party affiliation breakdown for the 1,001 Adults, (836 Registered voters) for the Ipsos-Public Affairs AP Poll dated January 3-5, 2005. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% for all Adults and 3.4% for Registered voters. Now the poll sample for Registered voters was:

AP/Ipsos Project #81-5139-09
****************************

43% Republican
49% Democrat
08% Independent

Source: Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs - Project #81-5139-09 - January 3-5, 2005.
(Note: "not sure" respondents assigned as Independents)
(Note: Older AP/IPsos polls go into Premium content after 1 month)

Ok, that was the AP/Ipsos January poll background, now we should look at this latest February Ipsos "poll" conducted for the Associated Press to see how they got the Bush presidential job approval ratings of "45% Approve, 54% Disapprove" after the successful Iraqi elections and the State of the Union address.

Ok, so what was the party affiliation breakdown for the 1,000 Adults, (849 Registered voters) for this Ipsos-Public Affairs AP Poll dated February 7-9, 2005. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1% for all Adults and 3.4% for Registered voters. Now the poll sample for Registered voters was:

AP/Ipsos Project #81-5139-19
****************************

39% Republican
52% Democrat
09% Independent

Source: Associated Press/Ipsos-Public Affairs - Project #81-5139-19 - February 7-9, 2005.
(Note: "not sure" respondents assigned as Independents)

That party affiliation breakdown used by AP/Ipsos for this February poll does not seem to match the latest characterization of the American Voting public according to the Exit Poll data collected from 13,660 voters on November 2nd, 2004. In fact, it looks as if the AP/Ipsos poll is again a bit slanted, shall we say, in favor of the Democrats. Gee, what happened to all the Independents? Did they just disappear for the next four years???

Furthermore, to help get the February 45% to 54% approval/disapproval job rating for President Bush, the AP/Ipsos poll chose this poll to sample "all Adults" again, instead of the "Registered Voters" who have been answering this question since February, 2004. What are the odds of that happening, again?

To summarize:

AP/Ipsos polls 2005
Presidential Job Approval
All Adults

	February	January
Republicans	39%	43%
Democrats	52%	49%
Independents	9%	8%
Total:	100%	100%
Approve	45%	49%
Disapprove	54%	49%

The MSM never stops trying...

dvwjr

[jveritas]

Thank you for the info.

52% of the people polled are Democrat and only 39% are Republicans, that is f***** unbelievable, and they have the nerve to publish such and outrageously biased poll.

[jpl]

Someone ought to tell the press that the election is over. President Bush isn't campaigning any more, he's governing, and he's in his last term in politics.

[niteowl77]

AHA!!! Will Lester again!

Or should I say, "The Will Lester Model 2005 Programmable Automatic Democrat Statistic and Poll Result Disgronificator again!"

[Wolfstar]

On February 8, 2005, the following news was posted: Bush gets highest approval rating since Saddam's capture: poll. That was a USA-Today/CNN/Gallup poll.

So here we are, all of THREE DAYS LATER, and we're told the exact opposite by an AP/Ipsos poll.

I don't believe either one. Time and time again, I have pointed out that:

1. There is no objective criteria by which the public can evaluate the accuracy of this type of between-election polls.

2. During the last several election cycles, we saw polls that were all over the place and highly questionable. The most recent debacle of the 2004 exit polls should teach anyone willing to pay attention that modern political polls are GARBAGE.

3. Modern political polls are used to manipulate public opinion, not to impartially report it.