Posted on 02/14/2005 9:32:52 AM PST by GOPGuide
Battle of the Badlands
Tom Daschle's defeat last November naturally created nervousness among other Great Plains Democrats who are facing reelection battles in "crimson" states where Mr. Bush won by 20 points or more. And perhaps none more so than North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad: It now appears likely that he will be challenged by popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven, setting up another multi-million dollar referendum on Democratic obstructionism in the Senate.
Normally, Mr. Conrad would have little to worry about. The former tax commissioner won re-election in 2000 with 62%, the same percentage George W. Bush carried the state by. But Mr. Conrad knows full well that Tom Daschle won re-election with 62% in 1998, only to lose to Republican John Thune, a Bush favorite, six years later. Mr. Conrad also knows that his potential challenger, Mr. Hoeven, won a second term last November with an even more impressive 71%.
The White House was able to convince Mr. Thune to run for Senate last year, and now is turning on the charm to convince Mr. Hoeven that he should move to Washington as a Senator. Last week, the president had both Mr. Hoeven and Mr. Conrad on Air Force One as he jetted to Fargo for a rally in support of his Social Security plan. You can be sure that the president spent more face time with Mr. Hoeven than with Mr. Conrad, a consistent critic of White House policies.
For his part, Mr. Hoeven is keeping mum about his plans. His spokesperson says, "The governor is focused on his job. He's just not going to talk about [a Senate race]." Nonetheless, friends and former aides of Mr. Hoeven tell me he has more or less made up his mind to challenge Mr. Conrad. But he's also looking for a way to make it clear to voters that he won't neglect his duties as governor if he also runs for the Senate.
If Mr. Hoeven runs, national political reporters will relish covering a high-stakes slugfest. North Dakota's 640,000 people, on the other hand, would face such an avalanche of political commercials that many might be tempted to swear off TV for the duration.
Nice. I'd love to see Bush leave the Presidency with 60 GOP Senate seats.
Hoeven "ping"
Works for me...:-)
Why do red states keep electing blue senators anyway? It must be the pork.
Sounds like "Hoeven" to me.
Pork plays a big part.
Constituent services is also a huge deal.
I disliked Daschle as much as the next person...but he ran a fabulous constituent services effort.
In smaller states, that can be the key to getting re-elected.
It takes time to clean out wasps, termites, Democrats, and other pests.
that is one of thge the differences between W and clinton
w has been great for party building and clinton's true legacy is he started with 58 dem senators and ended with 47. Lost 50+ congressmen and 10 govenorships.
I disagee. Conrad is still loved by ND for some reason and even though Hoeven is known and liked, it is still an uphill battle. Hoeven won with 70% in part because no one liked the joker he was up against...
I think part of it has been the tradition of 1) not fielding a good candidate against such an incumbent 2) the thought that such an incumbent is unbeatable and 3) the leadership of the other party not wanting to campaign against such an incumbent out of fear of offending him.
Bush, Frist and Thune did a good job of dispelling all 3 notions. From now on, the sky is the limit.
Has anyone started blogging the race yet, like Lauck did in SDak with "DaschlevThune?""
I agree. And Bush isn't afraid to gamble his Presidency by taking on tough issues and going out into the heartland to campaign for his policies and for people that support his ideas. Whatever Clinton's policies were (and to this day I haven't a clue) he never had the balls to speak about them publically.
hey ken
Would be sweet to see Dorgan lose. Bush won what, 32 states in 04, that means the natural course is for the GOP to get 64 Senate seats. ND is a great start.
Way to go ND!!!
Lots of old farmers that'll have to be convinced.
Are you from ND? If so do your part to have him elected.
Steve,
from what you know about Conrad, does his constituient services match up with Daschale or not?
I didn't realize Dashle won by so much in '98. It seems like there is hope.
I can't say but typically the ability to provide stellar constituent services is a major fact as to why people like Daschle were able to stay in office as long as they did.
One can infer from Hoeven's willingness to run that "they" have done polling and the results are relatively favorable (tie or better).
He, Conrad and Pomeroy (the lone congress critter) are all best buddies and cut from the same cloth. They basically canvassed the state in the late 1970's and early 1980's in their quest for statewide elective office. Probably everyone in the state has met at least one of them on more than one occasion. Add to the mix that Democrats held the governor's office for most of this time and were basically decent populists who would be considered conservatives in much of the country. (Former Governor Art Link, my favorite, was consistently better than anything the Republicans ever offered.)
Add the fact that North Dakota has a stable, non-transient population which remembers the goodwill from this era and the stupidity of Republicans when these men were vulnerable.
Dorgan, for instance, in his first re-election campaing was paired against a RINO abortionist woman and racked up 70% plus.
Conrad was paired against Senate RINO Mark Andrews who had brought in a California lawyer to insult the state in a lawsuit which ultimately cost him the election in a squeaker.
The prairie empire syndrome, being thus established, has been difficult to break. The story told is that the Dakotas send Democrats to Washington to ensure their share of pork, but Republicans as the local level to ensure it is properly used when it gets home.
The times are changing, though. Hoeven has actually helped improve the economy of the state so much that 90% of the college graduates (like me) do not exit now. Conrad represents the past, Hoeven the future.
If they can talk him into running, I think he has a decent shot at Conrad. That is, however, a big if. Typically, young governors from Western States who have actually accomplised something and made a difference, don't relish a trip to the Senate where they will be 1 of 100 in what is basically an institution designed to protect the status quo.
I am from ND, but am currently in KS for school. I do look forward to doing something if he does announce his running...
This got reported as a strong possibility a week ago, but it's nice to hear it again. It's gonna be a hell of a race.
I seriously doubt that the polling would show a tie at this point. If it does, Conrad mine as well not even run.
But after we beat the hell out of him with his voting record like we did Dashle, I expect that could easily change.
For the most part the D's in the Dakotas all got started during really good years for D's and they ran on pork, and just haven't had good challengers. It's hard to find good challengers in states of less then a million people. They stay in office w/ great constituent services and pork. They never run on their 'washington' votes. When we point them out, often and loud enough, we can win.
I expect this to be a barn burner, much like Thune/Johnson or Thune/Dashle. Could go either way, and will probably be as close.
Or perhaps more like Robb/Allen or Carper/Roth. Conrad's record is probably not one that people would find overly objectionable, I think. He and Dorgan try to steer clear of controversy, unlike Daschle.
We SHOULD be able to get a strong challenger to Pomeroy this year, too. I'd imagine another state officeholder wouldn't mind giving it a shot since they could remain in office in the meantime.
Conrad does, not Dorgan. Dorgan even appeared in Farenheit 9/11! We really should have had a strong challenger a few months ago.
But yes, perhaps Roth/Carper, Robb/Allen is a better example. Notice, in both cases, the red/blue person wone the red/blue state, which is good news for us in this case.
Just out of curiosity, do you know anything about the state AG or Agracultural Secretary or whatever other statewide offices? It does seem like getting someone like that to run for Congress should be possible. That's a very good idea.
We really, really need to do that. I hope someone takes the job up on South Dakota as well, because part of the reason we keep losing these senate seats is because we keep losing the house seats, and thus the dems have stronger challengers for the senate seats. Both Dashle and Johnson were house members who won a close race, and never had a tough race till they decided to run for the senate. Same for Thune.
Well, Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh ran strongly against Pomeroy in 2002. I would guess AG Wayne Stenehjem would be a prime candidate, or Clayburgh again.
Man! If he ran strong in 2002, why the heck didn't he run in 2004? It seems like he would have had a much better chance in 2004 w/Bush+20pts in the state. Then we wouldn't have to worry about it!
Oh well, hope somebody runs.
Nevermind, I just figured out the answer to my own question, they would be out of office, because they couldn't run for both.
That's how Robert Byrd keeps getting re-elected.
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