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New York: Blue and Getting Bluer
NY Times ^ | February 20, 2005 | SAM ROBERTS

Posted on 02/19/2005 8:04:56 PM PST by neverdem

THE PATAKI PROBLEM

It took 14 weeks of recounts and litigation before Nicholas A. Spano finally won re-election to the New York State Senate this month. By carrying his district in the Westchester suburbs of New York City - by all of 18 votes - Mr. Spano, now known as Landslide Nick, helped maintain the embattled Republican majority in the State Senate.

But he also achieved a more curious distinction: He broke a nationwide dead heat in state legislative seats. Counting Mr. Spano, the 2004 election made the count 3,657 Republicans and 3,656 Democrats; before last November, Republicans led by 64 seats.

That Mr. Spano was caught in such a squeaker illustrates an important truth: Republicans may be triumphant now at the national level, but that doesn't mean the party is doing well in the states, where all politics is local.

New York State has been something of an against-the-odds success story for Republicans. In national election-map parlance, it is obviously a blue state: it hasn't backed a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (though President Bush did better in New York against John Kerry than against Al Gore). Enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 to 3. In Congress, Democrats hold 19 of the 29 House seats, and they easily won both Senate seats.

Switch to local politics, though, and the state looks much redder. The state has had a Republican governor for all but 24 of the last 60 years, including George E. Pataki's three terms so far. The Democrats last controlled both houses of the Legislature in 1965. The last two mayors of solidly Democratic New York City have been Republicans. The state's small towns and rural counties have overwhelmingly been in Republican hands, and until recently, so were the suburbs.

But lately, even as Republicans have been gaining ground nationally they have been losing it in New York, and in some other states around the country as well. The reasons are many, ranging from population shifts to an erosion of party identification. But one thing it does not necessarily seem to be about is ideology.

Voters look at national and local candidates through very different lenses, and party labels can mean different things. The accommodations of day-to-day governing at state and local levels mean that elected officials must often run afoul of party oratory just to get things done.

As recently as the 1970's, New York City's northern and eastern suburbs were among the most reliably Republican places in the country. Now the county executives in the three largest suburban counties are all Democrats - not because of a surge in liberalism, so much as because voters grew tired of entrenched incumbents and rebelled against mismanagement, scandal and the painful local consequences of budget cuts in Washington and Albany. The Democratic victors may soon find themselves vulnerable for the same reasons.

"You can't say New York is a red state by virtue of the fact they elected a Republican governor or even a mayor," said Matthew Dowd, who was chief strategist to President Bush's campaign. "New York is like California, where depending on the Republican, and the campaign, and the Democrat, the Republican can win."

Still, much of the wind has gone from Mr. Pataki's sails. If, as seems increasingly unlikely, he seeks a fourth term next year, the latest New York Times poll suggests that he would lose to the state attorney general, Eliot Spitzer. Other polls find little chance of his unseating Hillary Rodham Clinton in a Senate race.

Few other Republicans of obvious statewide stature are coming up behind Mr. Pataki. He, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Michael R. Bloomberg, the current mayor, have all tended to be one-man shows; none has groomed a successor or galvanized the party's grass roots. Since voters in New York, even the Republicans, tend to be more liberal than their counterparts elsewhere on many issues, including abortion, affirmative action and the death penalty, Republicans who are able to win office often draw fire from the right. Conservatives grew so disgusted with Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller in the 1960's that they split off to form their own party.

More recently, Mr. Pataki was blasted in the latest issue of National Review as a governor whose "tenure as the Empire State's chief executive began with incredible promise - but its legacy almost certainly will be one of squandered opportunity, shrunken ambition and conservative disappointment."

The disconnect between New York and national Republicans runs both ways.

"The state's Republican leaders rose to national prominence when the kinds of moderate, pragmatic politics and policies that succeeded for them in New York were those that Republicans thought were necessary to win nationally," Gerald Benjamin, dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the State University at New Paltz, has written. "The ideological polarization of the major parties made these appeals less attractive to the more conservative national G.O.P., while at the same time making the G.O.P. less attractive to New Yorkers."

Demographic trends in New York may be working against the Republicans as well: New York City's population is growing compared with that of the suburbs and upstate areas.

But politics is personal as well as local. Gerrymandering keeps incumbents in office, and campaign spending can trump party labels; voters may tire of old faces (after three terms, Mario M. Cuomo had worse ratings than Mr. Pataki does today), and candidates, and even parties, can blur their stripes, as Senator Clinton did recently by saying that proponents and opponents of abortion rights should find "common ground" to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies.

"We have the women and abortion, but you lose a lot of people when you talk about third-trimester abortion," said Assemblyman Herman D. Farrell of Manhattan, the Democratic state chairman. "We've got to be more rational about how we cure things, and what we're going to have to start to do is to make some better decisions about how we treat our friends."

Still, Mr. Farrell says confidently, New York is certainly a blue state. His Republican counterpart, Stephen Minarik, prefers A.B.B. - anything but blue. "How about purple?" he said.


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: New York
KEYWORDS: georgeepataki; newyorkstate; pataki; republicanparty
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1 posted on 02/19/2005 8:04:56 PM PST by neverdem
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To: neverdem
The people hired by the New York Times are too smart to be this dumb, so the fundamental error must be deliberate, not accidental. I've followed the Republican/Democrat split in state legislators for 30 years. It is only in recent years that the Republicans have drawn even, or taken a slight lead, in those races.

However, to suggest that indicates a "tie" between the two "major" parties is a lie. It ignores the fact that Southern Democrats are mostly conservatives who vote Republican for statewide and national offices.

This is a deliberately dishonest article, intended to give false hope to the Blue State people who are the (declining) subscribers for the Times.

Congressman Billybob

Latest column, Confessions of a "Salivating Moron"

2 posted on 02/19/2005 8:14:09 PM PST by Congressman Billybob (Judges who disobey the law are the worst criminals of all.)
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To: neverdem

All of which proves why AlQaida thought so highly of New York as a target for terror.


3 posted on 02/19/2005 8:14:58 PM PST by muawiyah ( (do I really have to put the /sarcasm tag on things like this?))
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To: neverdem

I've often wondered why red staters are willing to die for the freedom of the blue states that give nothing but decadence and sloth to this country. The best answer I have is that many red daughters move to the city when they're young. If 1 or 2 of them are saved from nuclear holocaust, then maybe it's worth it.

Or maybe not.


4 posted on 02/19/2005 8:15:34 PM PST by SteveMcKing
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To: neverdem
By carrying his district in the Westchester suburbs of New York City - by all of 18 votes - Mr. Spano, now known as Landslide Nick [snip]

LANDSLIDE NICK!! I love that name.. 18 votes, and honey, it's a Landslide!!

Cute!

5 posted on 02/19/2005 8:18:30 PM PST by JesseJane (Don't Fear the FReeper!)
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To: Congressman Billybob
The dems are better at stealing local elections. Less scrutiny, more stealing.

Look at the big picture......

6 posted on 02/19/2005 8:20:01 PM PST by OldFriend (America's glory is not dominion, but liberty.)
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To: neverdem
When the dems have to resort to number-crunching like this you know they're desperate. I haven't followed this story especially closely, but it seems to me it's a matter of following the longterm trends--ten year snapshots are probably more valuable then this election-by-election method, and then compare that decade-by-decade trend.

I'm not saying this is the most accurate way, but it seems more sensical than this "WOOHOO! We're neck and neck in this election, we're almost in the lead!" weirdness.

7 posted on 02/19/2005 8:20:03 PM PST by Darkwolf377 ("Drowning someone...I wouldn't have a part in that."--Teddy K)
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To: neverdem

I'll be back..


8 posted on 02/19/2005 8:22:03 PM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: neverdem; NYC GOP Chick; Calliope04; Tares; sdk7x7; kphockey2; bluerose; risen_feenix; firebrand; ..
I was on the front page..

Rest of the article here


9 posted on 02/19/2005 8:23:44 PM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: The Mayor

bttt


10 posted on 02/19/2005 8:24:53 PM PST by cyborg (http://mentalmumblings.blogspot.com/)
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To: neverdem

The NYT is taking a page straight from electioneering class. Find a trend, ANY trend and emphasise it.

This is actually much like kerry saying if 200,000 more ohio voters voted he would have won.

The only lesson here is that the democrats did not expect so many republicans to turn out or they would have fixed more votes. (remember Democrats PAID for their volunteers)


11 posted on 02/19/2005 8:26:07 PM PST by longtermmemmory (VOTE!)
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To: cyborg

We are coming !


12 posted on 02/19/2005 8:29:54 PM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: The Mayor

Woo hoo! Help is on the way ;-)


13 posted on 02/19/2005 8:32:23 PM PST by cyborg (http://mentalmumblings.blogspot.com/)
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To: The Mayor

Ya got 'em lookin' over their shoulders!


14 posted on 02/19/2005 8:35:22 PM PST by NYTexan (.....Back to the Bunker!)
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To: The Mayor; Clemenza; Cacique; NYCVirago; Darksheare; hellinahandcart; Chode; conservative in nyc; ..

Congratulations on the front page coverage, Mayor.

FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list. Apologies for any double pings.


15 posted on 02/19/2005 8:37:18 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem


on please


16 posted on 02/19/2005 8:58:00 PM PST by LauraleeBraswell ( CONSERVATIVE FIRST-Republican second.)
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To: neverdem

Figures lie and liars figure!

What these people FAIL to note is ...
at the LOCAL level, a democrat is still a democrat and a republican is still republican.

At the NATIONAL level, a democrat is a communist and the republicans are mostly liberal democrats.

Where are the REAL republicans at the national level? Mostly forced out of office by the leftist in charge of the rnc. Ask a couple of Southern senators/representatives about true republicans being shafterd by their (??) party.


17 posted on 02/19/2005 8:58:08 PM PST by CLS (www.OUTOFTIMERADIO.org)
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To: Congressman Billybob
However, to suggest that indicates a "tie" between the two "major" parties is a lie. It ignores the fact that Southern Democrats are mostly conservatives who vote Republican for statewide and national offices.

I don't think it's necessarily a lie. Because of gerrymandering and the prospects for jobs, a lot of people are moving. Red states are becoming more red. Blue states are becoming more blue. It's only recently that NY has this 5 to 3 ratio in favor of the dems, IIRC. Both Schumer and then Hillary won by at least 11 percent margins when they were first elected.

NY, especially NYC, picked up many new residents, not counting those who can't vote legally. Upstate NY lost loads of folks who are unlikely to return. Liberals are flocking to cities. Conservatives are looking to greener pastures. If I wasn't a native of NYC with family and friends still here, I would have left a long time ago.

18 posted on 02/19/2005 11:07:25 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: CLS
Where are the REAL republicans at the national level?

Good question!

Ask a couple of Southern senators/representatives about true republicans being shafterd by their (??) party.

The same can be said of the California GOP.

19 posted on 02/19/2005 11:17:25 PM PST by SpyGuy (Liberalism is slow societal suicide. And screw political correctness: Islam is the Religion of Death)
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To: neverdem
The state has had a Republican governor for all but 24 of the last 60 years, including George E. Pataki's three terms so far.

Nelson Rockefeller, Malcolm Wilson, and George Elmer would be considered Democrats anywhere else.

New York's population growth consists entirely of immigrants, who have no problem with a tiny $500,000+ home as they stuff two families in, and the DINKs who, of course, don't reproduce.

20 posted on 02/19/2005 11:32:55 PM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: CLS

Uh, in New York it is the opposite. The Republicans are Liberal Democrats, and the Democrats are Marxists Leninists at the local level.


21 posted on 02/19/2005 11:34:53 PM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: neverdem
Believe it or not, I am looking to return to "fight the good fight." However, if I decide to start my own business in the future, it would most likely be in New Hampshire or even Delaware. Although the former has become a swing state and the latter a blue state, the cost of doing business is SO MUCH LOWER than what used to be called the Empire State.

As a native New Yorker, I weep for my state.

22 posted on 02/19/2005 11:37:50 PM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: neverdem

This article reminds me of the kid who was given a box of horse $h!t for his birthday. He was exuberant, digging into the box and throwing crap out, screaming, "There's got to be a pony in here somewhere!"


23 posted on 02/19/2005 11:40:24 PM PST by DeFault User
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To: CLS
Again, the national Republicans ARE "far right wingers" compared to New York Republicans. Same goes for New Jersey, Connecticut and the rest of the northeast.

BTW: Please provide examples of "TRUE Republicans."

I can't really remember any Senators being shafted by the RNC. Trent "Tinkerbell" Lott shot himself in the foot on many occassions.

24 posted on 02/19/2005 11:41:39 PM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: neverdem
I love Matthew Dowd's quote...

"New York is like California, where depending on the Republican, and the campaign, and the Democrat, the Republican can win."
Yeah, but only if he or she is a RINO! Unfortunately, true conservatives can't win in New York right now... and New Yorkers have no one to blame but themselves for the consequences of repeatedly electing liberals. It's almost like the majority (and I say the majority because I know they're not all liberals - e.g. Orange County & San Diego, CA) of New Yorkers and Californians can't see how miserable liberal socialism really is, because they're stuck in it... while we Texans and other red staters bask in the glow of conservatism!

25 posted on 02/19/2005 11:46:37 PM PST by mysto ("I am ZOT proof" --- famous last words of a troll.)
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To: Clemenza
Believe it or not, I am looking to return to "fight the good fight." However, if I decide to start my own business in the future, it would most likely be in New Hampshire or even Delaware.

You might want to consider Vermont. They actually observe the Bill of Rights, Right # 2 in particular.

26 posted on 02/19/2005 11:47:06 PM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem
George Pataki has governed for most of the past decade as a liberal Republican. He's the only kind of Republican who can win in New York State. The NY Senate GOP majority is mostly RINO. The Democrats control the Assembly. In national politics, the last time the Empire State went GOP was in 1984.

(Denny Crane: "There are two places to find the truth. First God and then Fox News.")

27 posted on 02/19/2005 11:54:47 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: neverdem
Someone once told me that Vermont has both a substantial corporate income tax. I do like the observance of the RTKBA.

BTW: Yesterday morning, I was at Dulles catching a flight to a meeting. Who did I see getting on to the United Express flight to Burlington by Senator Depends himself. I swear, Pat Leahy reminds me of a mean Jesuit with a closet S&M habit.

28 posted on 02/20/2005 12:01:24 AM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: goldstategop
George Pataki has governed for most of the past decade as a liberal Republican.

For the most part, that's true. But he initially ran as a conservative, with the additional endorsement of the Conservative Party when Giuliani endorsed Cuomo. He succeeded in corrupting the Conservative Party with patronage.

29 posted on 02/20/2005 12:05:30 AM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem
He succeeded in corrupting the Conservative Party with patronage.

I refused to shop at Mike Long's liquor store when I lived in Bay Ridge. Why should I give money to support a corrupt organization. There were better places around to buy wine anyway.

30 posted on 02/20/2005 12:13:51 AM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: Clemenza
Someone once told me that Vermont has both a substantial corporate income tax.

You need to talk to a corporate tax lawyer. Remember Farrah Fawcet and Wella Shampoo? I worked for Wella in NJ 20 years ago. They were incorporated in Delaware, IIRC. Just about everyone incorporates in Delaware unless laws have since changed.

31 posted on 02/20/2005 12:23:11 AM PST by neverdem (May you be in heaven a half hour before the devil knows that you're dead.)
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To: neverdem
I should have added, both an substantial corporate income tax and incorporation fees.

You are correct about incorporating in Delaware. And yes, I remember Wella Balsam, as that what my mother made me use in my youth.

32 posted on 02/20/2005 12:32:54 AM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: neverdem
New York: Blue and Getting Bluer

With its tax burden completely out of control and about to get a lot worse, this is no wonder. Plus, New York is thoroughly infected with a welfare state mentality and its courts are packed with babbling liberal idiots. The result is predictable: working taxpayers will flee while the parasites will stay and multiply like flies. The place is pure Democrat.

33 posted on 02/20/2005 12:37:51 AM PST by Lancey Howard
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To: Darkwolf377

"What about Colorado!! Didn't you see Colorado?? We almost broke even there!!" /dem


34 posted on 02/20/2005 1:51:35 AM PST by stands2reason (Mark Steyn on GWB: "This is a president who wants to leave his mark on more than a cocktail dress.")
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To: NYTexan

Oh, Yes we do.. : )


35 posted on 02/20/2005 5:22:53 AM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: neverdem

Thanks!


36 posted on 02/20/2005 5:24:23 AM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: neverdem
Blue and getting bluer? ROTF. In their dreams...


37 posted on 02/20/2005 5:30:55 AM PST by mewzilla (Has CBS retracted the story yet?)
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To: neverdem

It's getting "bluer" because all of the Republicans are leaving this state in droves. As I plan to.


38 posted on 02/20/2005 5:56:09 AM PST by lowbridge
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To: neverdem

I'm depressed... It is so terribly sad to see demodimwits take over my state so insidiously...


39 posted on 02/20/2005 6:37:42 AM PST by Donna Lee Nardo
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Comment #40 Removed by Moderator

To: The Mayor

sweet!


41 posted on 02/20/2005 7:45:34 AM PST by t_skoz ("let me be who I am - let me kick out the jams!")
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To: stands2reason

LOL I am trying to figure out how the dems can believe this crap when John Kerry did worse in his home state of Massachusetts than did Al Gore.


42 posted on 02/20/2005 7:52:13 AM PST by Darkwolf377 ("Drowning someone...I wouldn't have a part in that."--Teddy K)
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To: The Mayor

very photogenic !

Count me in to make this into somethign big


43 posted on 02/20/2005 7:54:11 AM PST by Mr. K (this space for rent)
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To: neverdem
The reasons are many, ranging from population shifts to an erosion of party identification

It's a combination of both. #1 and the most critical is the renewing of the Republican Party Identification, Pataki and Bruno have both added to the demise of the party, the blatant disregard that Bruno showed toward the Conservatives was and is disgusting and in your face, he must step down some how some way.. A Primary maybe?

Pataki has lost support because of his ability to control Albany.. It doesn't help that Silver has a veto proof majority and he must be removed too.

The best thing Pataki can do for the remainder of his term is to take it to the people, name names and bring forth the issues that are crippling this state.

Lay out a plan to reform Medicaid and push it forward.. There is no reason why we cannot put forth a good Medicaid reform package and get it to pass if we use our God given gift of speech.. and the freedom to use it... It will go nowhere if the powers that be are afraid to go against the unions in the health care industry.

This state offers everything under the sun in health care and no one is denied medical help in this state. But do we have to offer the rolls royce of systems where plastic surgery is allowed, sex change operations, crowns, caps, braces, in dental.... A simple copay system is an absolute necessity, the abuse of using emergency rooms as a walk in doctors office.. If your sick call your doctor and make an appointment.

The worst part of it is, the people that really need health care IE: the elderly and the really sick that are employed and just make a few dollars to much and are left out in the cold, they are told "sorry you income is 13.00 a month to much, you are not eligible for Medicaid. Prescription drugs that are taking the savings of the senior citizens....

Last year we lost population but equal to the loss was an increase in the immigrant population. We lose the best and brightest and receive more of the government dependent. I know that is not politically correct to say that but the truth hurts some times. We need residency requirements, one should not be automatically eligible for welfare, food stamps, Medicaid the moment you move into this state.

We need an all out change in the way government operates in this state, Who will be the leader to step up to the microphone? We are leaderless at this point.......

44 posted on 02/20/2005 10:30:04 AM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: Mr. K

Next meeting March 3rd..


45 posted on 02/20/2005 10:30:44 AM PST by The Mayor (http://www.RusThompson.com)
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To: goldstategop
George Pataki has governed for most of the past decade as a liberal Republican.

Pataki has governed the state as a hard core ultra leftist. He is the most liberal governor in the country (When I fled NY to NJ I had a hard time hating McGreevy because even he is way more Conservative than Pataki).

He's the only kind of Republican who can win in New York State.

That's debatable, But yes he has ruined any "real" Republicans chances in the future. Liberalism is the cause of all the problems in NY, But because of Pataki and the RINOs in the Senate, Republicans will get the blame.

The NY Senate GOP majority is mostly RINO.

The NY Senate is ALL RINO, There is not a Conservative among them. They routinely vote unanimously on all kinds of liberal goodies like tax/spending increases, regulations, taking of freedoms, etc.

The Democrats control the Assembly.

There is not one iota of difference between the Assembly Democrats and the RINOs in the Senate.

46 posted on 02/20/2005 2:36:04 PM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: Clemenza
I'm here in Rochester, but I'll see you in New Hampshire!!!

Looking for work there now!

47 posted on 02/20/2005 3:26:47 PM PST by t_skoz ("let me be who I am - let me kick out the jams!")
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To: Congressman Billybob
Actually, the bluest state is...Montana!


48 posted on 02/20/2005 3:28:51 PM PST by AmishDude
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To: The Mayor

Is this a Buffalo-only group? What is going on in Rochester, Syracuse, ADK's, Hudson Valley, etc??


49 posted on 02/20/2005 3:29:20 PM PST by t_skoz ("let me be who I am - let me kick out the jams!")
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To: Congressman Billybob

Another reason the count is spurious is because New Hampshire, with .3% of the country's population, has 6% of the USA's state legislators in its lower house alone. Because there are 400 representatives, the house is extremely volatile; a swing of 40 seats in that state in a given year is not unheard-of. Imagine what that would do in Texas, California, or New York.

Any state that has <50,000 people per state legislator (everything in New England, the Dakotas, Alaska, lots of other unpopulous states) should be reweighted if this statistic is to have any meaning.


50 posted on 02/20/2005 3:46:31 PM PST by HostileTerritory
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