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New York: Blue and Getting Bluer
NY Times ^ | February 20, 2005 | SAM ROBERTS

Posted on 02/19/2005 8:04:56 PM PST by neverdem


It took 14 weeks of recounts and litigation before Nicholas A. Spano finally won re-election to the New York State Senate this month. By carrying his district in the Westchester suburbs of New York City - by all of 18 votes - Mr. Spano, now known as Landslide Nick, helped maintain the embattled Republican majority in the State Senate.

But he also achieved a more curious distinction: He broke a nationwide dead heat in state legislative seats. Counting Mr. Spano, the 2004 election made the count 3,657 Republicans and 3,656 Democrats; before last November, Republicans led by 64 seats.

That Mr. Spano was caught in such a squeaker illustrates an important truth: Republicans may be triumphant now at the national level, but that doesn't mean the party is doing well in the states, where all politics is local.

New York State has been something of an against-the-odds success story for Republicans. In national election-map parlance, it is obviously a blue state: it hasn't backed a Republican for president since Ronald Reagan in 1984 (though President Bush did better in New York against John Kerry than against Al Gore). Enrolled Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 5 to 3. In Congress, Democrats hold 19 of the 29 House seats, and they easily won both Senate seats.

Switch to local politics, though, and the state looks much redder. The state has had a Republican governor for all but 24 of the last 60 years, including George E. Pataki's three terms so far. The Democrats last controlled both houses of the Legislature in 1965. The last two mayors of solidly Democratic New York City have been Republicans. The state's small towns and rural counties have overwhelmingly been in Republican hands, and until recently, so were the suburbs.

But lately, even as Republicans have been gaining ground nationally they have been losing it in New York, and in some other states around the country as well. The reasons are many, ranging from population shifts to an erosion of party identification. But one thing it does not necessarily seem to be about is ideology.

Voters look at national and local candidates through very different lenses, and party labels can mean different things. The accommodations of day-to-day governing at state and local levels mean that elected officials must often run afoul of party oratory just to get things done.

As recently as the 1970's, New York City's northern and eastern suburbs were among the most reliably Republican places in the country. Now the county executives in the three largest suburban counties are all Democrats - not because of a surge in liberalism, so much as because voters grew tired of entrenched incumbents and rebelled against mismanagement, scandal and the painful local consequences of budget cuts in Washington and Albany. The Democratic victors may soon find themselves vulnerable for the same reasons.

"You can't say New York is a red state by virtue of the fact they elected a Republican governor or even a mayor," said Matthew Dowd, who was chief strategist to President Bush's campaign. "New York is like California, where depending on the Republican, and the campaign, and the Democrat, the Republican can win."

Still, much of the wind has gone from Mr. Pataki's sails. If, as seems increasingly unlikely, he seeks a fourth term next year, the latest New York Times poll suggests that he would lose to the state attorney general, Eliot Spitzer. Other polls find little chance of his unseating Hillary Rodham Clinton in a Senate race.

Few other Republicans of obvious statewide stature are coming up behind Mr. Pataki. He, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Michael R. Bloomberg, the current mayor, have all tended to be one-man shows; none has groomed a successor or galvanized the party's grass roots. Since voters in New York, even the Republicans, tend to be more liberal than their counterparts elsewhere on many issues, including abortion, affirmative action and the death penalty, Republicans who are able to win office often draw fire from the right. Conservatives grew so disgusted with Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller in the 1960's that they split off to form their own party.

More recently, Mr. Pataki was blasted in the latest issue of National Review as a governor whose "tenure as the Empire State's chief executive began with incredible promise - but its legacy almost certainly will be one of squandered opportunity, shrunken ambition and conservative disappointment."

The disconnect between New York and national Republicans runs both ways.

"The state's Republican leaders rose to national prominence when the kinds of moderate, pragmatic politics and policies that succeeded for them in New York were those that Republicans thought were necessary to win nationally," Gerald Benjamin, dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the State University at New Paltz, has written. "The ideological polarization of the major parties made these appeals less attractive to the more conservative national G.O.P., while at the same time making the G.O.P. less attractive to New Yorkers."

Demographic trends in New York may be working against the Republicans as well: New York City's population is growing compared with that of the suburbs and upstate areas.

But politics is personal as well as local. Gerrymandering keeps incumbents in office, and campaign spending can trump party labels; voters may tire of old faces (after three terms, Mario M. Cuomo had worse ratings than Mr. Pataki does today), and candidates, and even parties, can blur their stripes, as Senator Clinton did recently by saying that proponents and opponents of abortion rights should find "common ground" to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies.

"We have the women and abortion, but you lose a lot of people when you talk about third-trimester abortion," said Assemblyman Herman D. Farrell of Manhattan, the Democratic state chairman. "We've got to be more rational about how we cure things, and what we're going to have to start to do is to make some better decisions about how we treat our friends."

Still, Mr. Farrell says confidently, New York is certainly a blue state. His Republican counterpart, Stephen Minarik, prefers A.B.B. - anything but blue. "How about purple?" he said.

TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Front Page News; Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: New York
KEYWORDS: georgeepataki; newyorkstate; pataki; republicanparty
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To: The Mayor


41 posted on 02/20/2005 7:45:34 AM PST by t_skoz ("let me be who I am - let me kick out the jams!")
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To: stands2reason

LOL I am trying to figure out how the dems can believe this crap when John Kerry did worse in his home state of Massachusetts than did Al Gore.

42 posted on 02/20/2005 7:52:13 AM PST by Darkwolf377 ("Drowning someone...I wouldn't have a part in that."--Teddy K)
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To: The Mayor

very photogenic !

Count me in to make this into somethign big

43 posted on 02/20/2005 7:54:11 AM PST by Mr. K (this space for rent)
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To: neverdem
The reasons are many, ranging from population shifts to an erosion of party identification

It's a combination of both. #1 and the most critical is the renewing of the Republican Party Identification, Pataki and Bruno have both added to the demise of the party, the blatant disregard that Bruno showed toward the Conservatives was and is disgusting and in your face, he must step down some how some way.. A Primary maybe?

Pataki has lost support because of his ability to control Albany.. It doesn't help that Silver has a veto proof majority and he must be removed too.

The best thing Pataki can do for the remainder of his term is to take it to the people, name names and bring forth the issues that are crippling this state.

Lay out a plan to reform Medicaid and push it forward.. There is no reason why we cannot put forth a good Medicaid reform package and get it to pass if we use our God given gift of speech.. and the freedom to use it... It will go nowhere if the powers that be are afraid to go against the unions in the health care industry.

This state offers everything under the sun in health care and no one is denied medical help in this state. But do we have to offer the rolls royce of systems where plastic surgery is allowed, sex change operations, crowns, caps, braces, in dental.... A simple copay system is an absolute necessity, the abuse of using emergency rooms as a walk in doctors office.. If your sick call your doctor and make an appointment.

The worst part of it is, the people that really need health care IE: the elderly and the really sick that are employed and just make a few dollars to much and are left out in the cold, they are told "sorry you income is 13.00 a month to much, you are not eligible for Medicaid. Prescription drugs that are taking the savings of the senior citizens....

Last year we lost population but equal to the loss was an increase in the immigrant population. We lose the best and brightest and receive more of the government dependent. I know that is not politically correct to say that but the truth hurts some times. We need residency requirements, one should not be automatically eligible for welfare, food stamps, Medicaid the moment you move into this state.

We need an all out change in the way government operates in this state, Who will be the leader to step up to the microphone? We are leaderless at this point.......

44 posted on 02/20/2005 10:30:04 AM PST by The Mayor (
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To: Mr. K

Next meeting March 3rd..

45 posted on 02/20/2005 10:30:44 AM PST by The Mayor (
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To: goldstategop
George Pataki has governed for most of the past decade as a liberal Republican.

Pataki has governed the state as a hard core ultra leftist. He is the most liberal governor in the country (When I fled NY to NJ I had a hard time hating McGreevy because even he is way more Conservative than Pataki).

He's the only kind of Republican who can win in New York State.

That's debatable, But yes he has ruined any "real" Republicans chances in the future. Liberalism is the cause of all the problems in NY, But because of Pataki and the RINOs in the Senate, Republicans will get the blame.

The NY Senate GOP majority is mostly RINO.

The NY Senate is ALL RINO, There is not a Conservative among them. They routinely vote unanimously on all kinds of liberal goodies like tax/spending increases, regulations, taking of freedoms, etc.

The Democrats control the Assembly.

There is not one iota of difference between the Assembly Democrats and the RINOs in the Senate.

46 posted on 02/20/2005 2:36:04 PM PST by qam1 (There's been a huge party. All plates and the bottles are empty, all that's left is the bill to pay)
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To: Clemenza
I'm here in Rochester, but I'll see you in New Hampshire!!!

Looking for work there now!

47 posted on 02/20/2005 3:26:47 PM PST by t_skoz ("let me be who I am - let me kick out the jams!")
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To: Congressman Billybob
Actually, the bluest state is...Montana!

48 posted on 02/20/2005 3:28:51 PM PST by AmishDude
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To: The Mayor

Is this a Buffalo-only group? What is going on in Rochester, Syracuse, ADK's, Hudson Valley, etc??

49 posted on 02/20/2005 3:29:20 PM PST by t_skoz ("let me be who I am - let me kick out the jams!")
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To: Congressman Billybob

Another reason the count is spurious is because New Hampshire, with .3% of the country's population, has 6% of the USA's state legislators in its lower house alone. Because there are 400 representatives, the house is extremely volatile; a swing of 40 seats in that state in a given year is not unheard-of. Imagine what that would do in Texas, California, or New York.

Any state that has <50,000 people per state legislator (everything in New England, the Dakotas, Alaska, lots of other unpopulous states) should be reweighted if this statistic is to have any meaning.

50 posted on 02/20/2005 3:46:31 PM PST by HostileTerritory
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Comment #51 Removed by Moderator

To: t_skoz

No we want to move it across the state, we have someone working on it in NiaFalls and someone in the south towns.

Hopefully this will take off as soon as we start getting more publicity.
Next year we will be focused on Albany....

52 posted on 02/20/2005 5:31:02 PM PST by The Mayor (
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To: kennedy6979
North Carolina is being ruined by New Yorkers. YANKEE GO HOME!!! ;-)

Please don't tell me you work at Wachovia or the truly evil Nationsbank (pretender to the once great name of Bank of America).

53 posted on 02/20/2005 6:31:07 PM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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