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Michigan Election Results and analysis by County, city, and Township. (2004 compared with 02, 00)
Secretary of State | 2-25-05 | Dan from MI

Posted on 02/26/2005 1:21:02 PM PST by Dan from Michigan

Election Report Pt 3 - Michigan 2004 – In Depth (Township by Township)

This is a follow-up to the 2000 and 2002 reports I did. Unfortunately, we are having a problem with close losses here in Michigan. Detroit’s turnout has been killing us lately, and we are going to have to make up the ground in other places.

Statewide
Bush – 2313476 – 47.81%
Kerry – 2479183 - 51.23%
Kerry won by 165707

Bush cut Gore’s lead by about 60,000, but it was not enough thanks to Detroit and Washtenaw County.

THE UP:
Bush – 78278 votes – 51.52%
Kerry - 71888 votes – 47.31%
Bush by 6388

Bush slightly improved on his 2000 numbers here. He already over performed here in a historically democrat part of the state, so there was not a lot of extra room for improvement unless you had Geoff Fieger at the top of the ticket. Granholm won the UP in 2002 by 5172 votes so the fact that Bush did better than he did in 2000 shows something.

Alger County:
Bush – 2318 – 48.65%
Kerry – 2395 – 50.26%, won by 77
Bush Best votes – Munising Township by 136
Bush Best % - Grand Island Township – 65.63% Kerry Best votes – Munising City by 106
Kerry Best % - Mathias Twp – 62.58%

This was the one county that Bush won in 2000 (with 49%) that he lost in 2004. It’s a strongly democrat county at the local level, and Granholm won it with 52.59% in 02. Bush won 3 municipalities (City or Township) and Kerry won 7. That was the difference. Alger County is the home of Pictured Rocks Lakeshore on Lake Superior and is between Marquette and Newberry.

Baraga County:
Bush – 1977 – 53.66%, won by 317
Kerry – 1660 – 45.06%
Bush Best votes – L’anse Township by 165
Bush Best % - Covington Township – 55.95%
Kerry Best votes – Spurr Township by 9
Kerry Best % - Spurr Township 52.33%

Bush did about the same as 2000 here. Granholm won it narrowly by 93 votes. This County is West of Marquette in the Western UP

Chippewa County
Bush – 9122 – 55.33%, won by 1919
Kerry – 7203 – 43.69%
Bush Best votes – Pickford Township by 358
Bush Best % - Chippewa Township – 69.68%
Kerry Best votes – Bay Mills Township by 55
Kerry Best % - Raber Township by 49

Bush improved heavily in Chippewa County over 2000. Granholm won it in 02. He cut into his losses in Bay Mills which is over ½ minority(Chippewa). He also won Sault Ste Marie which is the home of Lake Superior State. It might be the only University town he wins. This is the home of the soo and Tahquanemon Falls.

Delta County
Bush – 9680 – 50.32%, won by 299
Kerry – 9381 – 48.76%
Bush Best votes – Escanaba Township by 246
Bush Best % - Bark River Township – 59.93%
Kerry Best votes – Escanaba City by 102
Kerry Best % - Garden Township – 53.33%

Historically a conservative democrat county, it’s now become a swing county. Bush won here twice narrowly (50 and 51%), and Granholm won narrowly in 02. It finally elected a republican state rep in 2002 in a big upset. Delta County is right on Green Bay in the South Central UP.

Dickinson County
Bush – 7734 – 57.08, won by 2084
Kerry – 5650 – 41.70%
Bush Best votes – Breitung Township by 781
Bush Best % - Feltch Township – 68.59%
Kerry Best votes – Norway City by 23
Kerry Best % - West Branch Twp – 54.72%

This is one of Bush’s best counties in the UP. It covers Kingsford and Iron Mountain, the home of Tom Izzo and Steve Mariucci. Bush won it with 55% in 00, and Posthumus won it with 52% in 02.

Gogebic County
Bush – 46.56%
Kerry – 52.31%, won by 486
Bush Best votes – Watersmeet Twp by 117
Bush Best % - Marenesco Twp – 60.00%
Kerry Best votes – Ironwood City by 467
Kerry Best % - Ironwood City – 57.55%

Bush somehow was able to hold Gore to 49% here in the 2nd most democrat county in the UP. It wasn’t going to happen this time. Granholm won with 57% here and Nader wasn’t a factor this year. Ironwood’s turnout was too big. This is the furthest Western part of the UP and is part of the “Iron Range” region that includes Duluth Minnesota and Superior Wisconsin.

Houghton County
Bush – 8889 – 56.08%, won by 2158
Kerry – 6731 – 42.46%
Bush Best votes – Calumet Township by 614
Bush Best % - Chassell Township – 66.70%
Kerry Best votes – Houghton City by 138
Kerry Best % - Adams Township – 53.46%

Kerry stole Houghton City this time (Home of Michigan Tech), but Bush still got the county. All the Nader votes went to Kerry here so he did gain ground.

Iron County
Bush – 3224 votes – 49.52%, won by 9
Kerry – 3215 – 49.38%
Bush Best votes – Iron River Township by 117
Bush Best % - Iron River Township – 58.80%
Kerry Best votes – Crystal Falls City by 107
Kerry Best % - Caspian City – 58.95%

This was a shocker. Iron County is (usually) the 3rd most dem county in the UP. Gore won it narrowly and Granholm won it big. Bush only one 4 townships here, but was helped by a strong Iron River Twp and Bates Twp turnout.

Keweenaw County
Bush – 781 – 54.27%, won by 151
Kerry – 630 – 43.78%
Bush Best votes – Eagle Harbor Twp by 60
Bush Best % - Eagle Harbor Twp – 62.34%
Kerry Best Votes – Lost Sherman Township by 2
Kerry Best % - Sherman Twp – 47.62%

Kerry was swept here. The Northern most point in Michigan. Copper Harbor and Isle Royal. Reliably GOP.

Luce County
Bush – 1749 – 61.82%, won by 704
Kerry – 1045 – 36.94%
Bush Best votes – Lakefield Township by 258
Bush Best % - Lakefield Township – 68.17%
Kerry best votes – Lost Columbus Township by 29
Kerry best % - McMillan Twp – 39.94%

Kerry was swept here. There must be a lot of state workers here who are conservative. Bush won Luce big with 58% in 2000, but Granholm won it in 2002 with low turnout and a near sweep. This was Bush’s top county in the UP and covers Newberry. The Marquette stop may have helped this county.

Mackinac County
Bush – 3706 – 56.16%, won by 887
Kerry – 2819 – 42.72%
Bush Best votes – Clark Twp by 287
Bush Best % - Marquette Twp – 64.63%
Kerry Best votes – St Ignace Township by 21
Kerry Best % - St Ignace Township – 51.67%

This would have been even more one sided if it was not for the Chippewa vote. This very large East-West county goes from Drummond County, to the Bridge, and almost to Manistique. Bush got 55% here last time and improved from before. Posthumus barely won it.

Marquette County
Bush – 14690 – 45.22%
Kerry – 17412 – 53.60%, won by 2722
Bush Best votes – Chocolay Twp by 255
Bush Best % - Wells Township – 61.87%
Kerry Best votes – Marquette City by 1563
Kerry Best % - Richmond Twp – 69.52%

The democrat’s top stronghold in the UP is Marquette County. Heavily union and also the home of Northern Michigan University. Granholm got 58% here. Gore won it with 53% with Nadler blocking him. Bush lost by 10% here last time so he did improve and his visit did probably help him here. Marquette, Ishpeming, and Neguanee are a 1-2-3 punch that is hard to stop. I think Engler was the only republican to win here at the top of the ticket since McGovern, or maybe the 70’s RINO Milliken.

Menominee County
Bush – 5942 – 52.04%, won by 616
Kerry – 5326 – 46.64%
Bush Best votes – Ingallston twp by 125
Bush Best % - Stephenson twp – 66.15%
Kerry Best votes – Menominee City by 232
Kerry Best % - Menominee City – 52.59%

Bush lost a little ground here in this Green Bay County. He got 53% last time. Almost all of his trouble came in the city. He won almost everywhere else. Posthumus won here in 02, and Bush won here twice.

Ontonagon County
Bush – 2262 – 53.96%, won by 399
Kerry – 1863 – 44.44%
Bush Best votes – Ontonagon Twp by 241
Bush Best % - Rockland Twp – 64.29%
Kerry Best votes – Carp Lake Twp by 57
Kerry Best % - Interior Twp – 58.85%

This was a really bad county for Bush. He swept Gore here and got 60% last time. Posthumus won here by the skin of his teeth in 02, so my guess is that most of these voters voted with their wallet and that this county has even a stronger independent streak than the rest of the UP.

Schoolcraft County
Bush – 2267 – 51.05%, won by 130
Kerry – 2137 – 48.12%
Bush Best votes – Germfask twp by 94
Bush Best % - Germfask Twp – 69.49%
Kerry Best votes – Manistique City by 74
Kerry Best % - Manistique City – 52.30%

Bush amazingly won Schoolcraft twice. It’s usually a dem county. Granholm won it by 7%, and it is dem on the local level. It’s between Escanaba and St Ignace on Lake Michigan.

NE LOWER
Bush – 49026 votes – 53.13%
Kerry - 42221 votes – 45.75%
Bush by 6805

This was a major improvement over Bush’s 2000 and Posthumus’ 2002 numbers. Bush won every county here, even reliably Democrat Alpena. Bush lost Iosco, Alpena, Ogemaw, and Roscommon in 2000. Bush 00 and Posthumus 02 got 50% Bush got 53% this time.

Cheboygan County
Bush – 7798 votes – 56.15%, won by 1857
Kerry – 5941 votes – 42.78%
Bush Best votes – Tuscarora Twp by 339
Bush Best % - Koehler Twp – 61.71%
Kerry Best votes – Forest Twp by 33
Kerry Best % - Forest Twp – 53.16%

This is near the Mackinac Bridge on the Lake Huron coast. Bush ran 2% higher than last time here. He won all except Forest Twp.

Presque Isle County
Bush – 3982 – 52.98%, won by 550
Kerry – 3432 – 45.66%
Bush Best votes – Presque Isle Twp by 133
Bush Best % - Moltke Twp – 65.59%
Kerry Best votes – Posen Twp by 63
Kerry Best % - Pulawski Twp – 60.61%

A marginal GOP county between Cheboygan and Alpena. Bush won it with 51% last time and nearly broke 53% this time.

Montmorency County
Bush – 3300 – 59.32%, won by 1104
Kerry – 2196 – 39.48%
Bush Best votes – Briley Twp by 221
Bush Best % - Rust Twp – 70.63% Kerry best votes – Lost Loud Twp by 31
Kerry best % - Albert Twp – 42.32%

Bush nearly swept Gore here in 2000, and Granholm was swept by Posthumus here in 2002. Bush swept Kerry this time. Bush ran 4% better here than 2000. Covers Atlanta which is the elk capital of Michigan. This is an inland county between Alpena and Gaylord.

Alpena County
Bush – 7666 – 50.39%, won by 258
Kerry – 7407 – 48.70%
Bush Best votes – Wilson Twp by 217
Bush Best % - Wellington Twp – 66.42%
Kerry Best votes – City of Alpena by 391
Kerry Best % - City of Alpena – 53.27%

This was an upset. Gore and Granholm both won it, and it is sometimes 70% dem on the local level if you have a moderate populist democrat running. (Pro-life, pro-gun, pro-union). Granholm got 57% in the county, partly due to partisanship, but also due to the DNR and deer hunting rules by them from the Deer TB epidemic. Bush won here since he was able to lower his losses in Alpena City and Twp.

Ocsoda County
Bush – 2570 – 58.29%, won by 778
Kerry – 1792 – 40.64%
Bush Best votes – Comins Twp by 365
Bush Best % - Comins Twp - 68.98%
Kerry best votes – Lost Mentor Twp by 31
Kerry best % - Mentor Twp – 47.00%

Kerry was swept here. Bush ran 3% higher than in 2000 here in this inland county. This is centered around Mio which is between Harrisville (Alcona County) and Grayling (Crawford County).

Alcona County
Bush – 3592 – 55.00%, won by 721
Kerry – 2871 – 43.96%
Bush Best votes – Harrisville Twp by 175
Bush Best % - Mitchell Twp – 62.17%
Kerry Best votes – Curtis Twp by 34
Kerry Best % - Curtis Twp – 51.73%

Bush ran 2% higher here than in 2000. This area slightly leans GOP in statewide races (I suspect more democrat locally). Harrisville City leans slightly dem, but Bush only lost by 1 vote. The township was his best area. This is between Tawas City(Iosco) and Alpena on Lake Huron.

Ogemaw County
Bush – 5454 – 50.52%, won by 239
Kerry – 5215 – 48.30%
Bush Best votes – West Branch Twp by 220
Bush Best % - Rose City – 62.65%
Kerry Best votes – Mills Twp by 267
Kerry Best % - Mills Twp – 57.26%

Granholm and Gore both won Ogemaw County narrowly on the strength of Mills Twp. In 2000, Gore won Mills Twp by 400. It has a 21% poverty rate which is a large reason for its dem strength. The other townships voted heavily this time, and Kerry didn’t sell in Mills. West Branch is the center of the county and tilts GOP. Inland county between Roscommon and Twas City.

Iosco County
Bush – 7301 – 52.13%, won by 744
Kerry – 6557 – 46.82%
Bush Best votes – East Tawas City by 258
Bush Best % - East Tawas city – 58.31%
Kerry Best votes – Plainfield Twp by 46
Kerry Best % - Whittemore City – 56.50%

Another Gore and Granholm county won by Bush. East Tawas went in a big way for Bush. This County is between Standish(Arenac) and Harrisville(Alcona) on Lake Huron.

Roscommon County
Bush – 7364 – 51.28%, won by 554
Kerry – 6810 – 47.43%
Bush Best votes – Gerrish twp by 219
Bush Best % - Backus twp – 55.85%
Kerry Best votes – Richfield Twp by 239
Kerry Best % - Richfield Twp – 54.75% here

Bush lost it in 00, but Posthumus won it in 02. This one is ours, and should be every time as far as I’m concerned. Inland County west of West Branch and just South of Grayling. This is a prime outdoors county with hunting and Higgins and Houghton Lakes. Richfield Twp is the big problem here, but wasn’t as bad this year.

NW/Central LOWER
Bush – 104275 votes – 58.50%
Kerry - 71948 votes – 40.36%
Bush by 32327

Bush ran about 1% higher here than he did in 2000, and about 1% higher than Posthumus did as well. This area has more money than the NE lower and the UP. It’s also rural and has the same social conservatism as the rest of the northlands and is a major part of the GOP base. Bush won this area by 26,000 votes. Many of these areas are growing rapidly, and hunting, skiing, snowmobiling, and golfing is huge there. Sprawl is an issue here that could hurt. A lot of NIMBYs and some greens. A pro-life, anti-tax, pro-gun platform runs well. The best thing that could happen here though – a snow free election day. This is God’s country there.

Emmet County
Bush – 10332 votes – 59.48%, won by 3486
Kerry – 6846 votes – 39.41%
Bush Best votes – Bear Creek Twp by 731
Bush Best % - West Traverse Twp – 66.76%
Kerry best votes – lost Center Twp by 9
Kerry best % - Center Twp – 47.78%

Kerry was swept here. This is a solid GOP area. Bush ran 1% higher here than in 2000, but Posthumus ran 2% ahead of Bush here. Petoskey and Harbor Springs are resort towns here. This county is on Lake Michigan running from Little Traverse Bay up to the Mackinac Bridge. A lot of vacation homes on the coast and a lot of hunting lands inland.

Charlevoix County
Bush – 8214 – 58.09%, won by 2485
Kerry – 5729 – 40.52%
Bush Best Votes – Eveline Twp and Marion Twp by 260 Bush Best % - Eveline Twp – 63.44% Kerry Best Votes – St. James Twp by 32 Kerry Best % - St James Twp – 56.70%

Another Solid GOP area. Covers Boyne Falls and Boyne City inland, and Charlevoix over on the Lake Michigan Coast. A mix of rural areas and vacation towns. Bush ran 2% higher here than in 2000, and ran about even with Posthumus.

Antrim County
Bush – 8379 – 61.52%, won by 3307
Kerry – 5072 – 37.24%
Bush Best Votes – Elk Rapids Township, won by 394
Bush Best % - Custer Twp – 67.68% Kerry was swept

I believe this is the new home of Michael Moore.(Either Antrim or Emmet County) . It’s one of those two counties and it is right on Lake Michigan and is in the 7 digit price range. It’s not a working class home. Wherever he lives, he could not deliver his county for Johnny. Bush ran 2% higher than he did in 2000, and 3% higher than Posthumus did in 02. This area covers Mancelona and Bellaire inland, and Elk Rapids near Traverse City over on the Lake Michigan Coast.

Otsego County
Bush – 7470 – 60.70%, won by 2796
Kerry – 4674 - 37.98%
Bush Best Votes – Bagley Twp by 769
Bush Best % - Hayes Twp – 64.15%
Kerry best votes – lost Dover Twp by 62
Kerry best % - Corwith twp - 44.13%

Kerry was swept here. This inland and mostly rural county covers Waters and Gaylord. It’s between Atlanta(Montmorency) and Mancelona(Antrim). Solidly GOP area and tied to the Petroleum industry, as well as tourism from outdoors activities. I also hunt near Waters. A lot of retirement homes are cropping up here.

Crawford County
Bush – 4017 - 55.52%, won by 891
Kerry – 3126 – 43.21%
Bush Best Votes – Grayling Twp by 471
Bush Best % - Maple Forest Twp – 57.46%
Kerry best votes – lost Lovells Twp by 32
Kerry best % - South Branch Twp – 47.83%

Kerry was swept here. This rural and inland county covers the Grayling area. It’s between Kalkaska and Mio(Oscoda) and between Gaylord/Waters(Otsego) and Roscommon. It’s a marginal GOP county where Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers, and 4% ahead of Posthumus. Much of this has to do with the troops. Camp Grayling is a National Guard Base. This is also a major hunting and fishing area and is culturally conservative. My family has a cottage on the Au Sable River so I am very familiar with this area. It’s God’s country.

Kalkaska County
Bush – 5084 – 60.67%, won by 1895
Kerry – 3189 – 38.05%
Bush Best Votes – Kalkaska Twp by 516
Bush Best % - Orange Twp – 70.40% Kerry best votes – Lost Bear Lake Twp by 51.
Kerry best % - Bear Lake Twp – 43.39%

Kerry was swept here. Solid GOP inland rural county between Grayling (Crawford) and Traverse City and between Mancelona (Antrim) and Cadillac (Wexford). Bush ran 4% ahead of Posthumus and 4% ahead of his 2000 numbers here.

Grand Traverse County
Bush – 27446 – 59.42%, won by 9190
Kerry – 18256 – 39.52%
Bush Best Votes – Garfield Twp by 1718
Bush Best % - Whitewater Twp – 67.86%
Kerry Best Votes – Traverse City by 259
Kerry Best % - Traverse City – 50.92%

Bush lost Traverse City which he won in 2000, but ran 1% ahead of his 2000 number based on the Township strengths. He ran 3% ahead of Posthumus, despite having to deal with that RINO tax rasing, gun grabbing, pro-abort, jobs losing Bill Milliken. Milliken is a former governor from here, and is only a Republican because he had to be to win here. This is the GOP stronghold of North Michigan, and is most known for the National Cherry Festival, as well as Grand Traverse Bay.

Leelanau County
Bush – 7733 – 55.57%, won by 1685
Kerry – 6048 – 43.46%
Bush Best Votes –Elmwood Township by 587
Bush Best % - Leland Twp – 60.70%
Kerry Best Votes – Empire Twp by 39
Kerry Best % - Empire Twp – 51.56%

Bush ran 2% behind his 2000 numbers here and ran even with Posthumus. This is the home of Michigan’s wine country, and also the home of Sleeping Bear Dunes. NW of Traverse City on a Peninsula.

Benzie County
Bush – 5284 – 54.04%, won by 901
Kerry – 4383 – 44.83%
Bush Best Votes – Almira Twp by 406
Bush Best % - Weldon Twp – 62.94%
Kerry Best Votes – Gilmore Twp by 69
Kerry Best % - Gilmore Twp – 56.96%

Bush ran 2% ahead of Posthumus and also 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers here due to some inroads made in Democrat Frankfort. Granholm won Frankfort with 59%. Mostly rural county on Lake Michigan west of Traverse City.

Manistee County
Bush – 6295 – 49.41%, won by 23
Kerry – 6272 – 49.23%
Bush Best Votes – Pleasanton Twp by 148
Bush Best % - Pleasanton Twp – 65.00%
Kerry Best Votes – Manistee City by 278
Kerry Best % - Filer Twp – 55.05%

Bush lost Manistee County in 2000. Posthumus won it by 12 votes in 2002. It’s a swing county between Ludington and Frankfort on Lake Michigan.

Wexford County
Bush – 8966 – 59.14%, won by 2932
Kerry – 6034 – 39.80%
Bush Best Votes – Cadillac City by 583
Bush Best % - Colfax Twp – 65.21% Kerry best votes – Lost Slagle twp by 14
Kerry best % - Slagle Twp – 46.64%

Kerry was swept here. Solid GOP area West of Lake City (Missuakee) and South of Kalkaska. Bush ran 3% of his 2000 numbers here and 3% ahead of Posthumus’ numbers.

Missaukee County
Bush – 5055 – 68.12%, won by 2736
Kerry – 2319 – 31.25%
Bush Best Votes – Richland Twp by 535
Bush Best % - Richland Twp – 84.73% Kerry Best Votes – Holland Twp by 1
Kerry Best % - Holland Twp – 50.00%

The 2nd most GOP county in the state year after year. Largely settled by Dutch and German farmers. Between Roscommon and Cadillac(Wexford).

Saginaw Valley
Bush – 191684 votes – 43.73%
Kerry - 243027 votes – 55.44%
Kerry by 51343

This is a major unionized area and staunchly democrat. Bush did run 2-3% higher here than he did in 2000, and he ran even with Posthumus in 2002. The only Republican Stronghold here is Midland, and Gladwin and Arenac have some ticketsplitters. The rest of the area is solid democrat.

Arenac County
Bush – 4071 – 49.55%
Kerry – 4076 – 49.61%, won by 5 Bush Best Votes – Sims Township by 101
Bush Best % - Adams Twp – 61.55%
Kerry Best Votes – Deep River Twp by 145
Kerry Best % - Omer City – 56.34%

Arenac County went for Gore and Granholm with 51% both times, so this is an improvement. It’s on the coast of Saginaw Bay between Bay City and West Branch. There are a lot of John Dingell and Jim Barcia type democrats here who are socially conservative.

Gladwin County
Bush – 6770 votes – 51.18%, won by 427
Kerry – 6343 – 47.95%
Bush Best Votes – Sage Twp by 225
Bush Best % - Grout Twp – 59.22%
Kerry Best Votes – Billings Twp by 176
Kerry Best % - Grim Twp – 59.80%

Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers and 1% ahead of Posthumus here. Leans dem on the local level, but has gone GOP at the top now in every election since 96. A lot of union members and corrections officers here. Between Standish (Arenac) and Clare.

Midland County
Bush – 24369 votes – 56.31%, won by 6014
Kerry – 18355 – 42.41%
Bush Best Votes – Midland City by 3185
Bush Best % - Larkin twp – 66.84%
Kerry Best Votes – Mills Twp by 16
Kerry Best % - Mills Twp – 50.00%

A near sweep for Bush here. He ran even with his 200 numbers and slightly below Posthumus in 2002. Midland is between Mt Pleasant (Isabella) and Bay City. Dow Chemical is the major employer here.

Bay County
Bush – 25439 votes – 44.60%
Kerry – 31032 votes – 54.41%, won by 5593
Bush Best Votes – Frankenlust twp by 474
Bush Best % - Frankenlust twp – 62.55%
Kerry Best Votes – Bay City by 4445
Kerry Best % - Midland City – 73.68%(one tiny precinct), Bay City 62.83%

Bay City is a GM UAW stronghold and probably the most democrat of the white non dominated cities without a university (I believe Bay City is still almost 90% white). Why it is democrat amazes me since it is a pro-life and pro-gun area. The Midland precinct there is an aberration that had only 38 voters. Posthumus got 64% in that same precinct. Kerry’s best percentage outside of that was Bay City. Saginaw County is less Dem than Bay, but has a much higher minority population. Kerry ran 1% lower than Gore in 2000, but 1% higher than Granholm (who ran poorly among union members).

Saginaw County
Bush – 47165 – 45.86%
Kerry – 54887 – 53.37%, won by 7722
Bush Best Votes – Saginaw Twp by 1577
Bush Best % - Frankenmuth City – 75.90%
Kerry Best Votes – Saginaw City by 11192
Kerry Best % - Buena Vista Twp – 82.49%

Saginaw is another GM UAW county. It is also a very regional county. Western Saginaw is more rural and leans Republican. The Western and NW suburbs (Saginaw Twp, Tittabawassee, Thomas) are also republican. The city itself is 50% black and went 75% for Kerry. Buena Vista Twp and Bridgeport also have very large minority populations.

Did I mention that you should visit Frankenmuth? Well, it is a solid red island in a blue county. They do not have many voters there, but they really turned out the vote this year and did their best to keep Saginaw from going bluer. Frankenmuth Twp went 72.58% Republican and almost beat Saginaw Twp (53% GOP) in R/D difference despite having 1/3 of the voters.

Genesee County
Bush – 83870 votes – 39.23%
Kerry – 128334 – 60.03%
Bush Best Votes – Fenton Twp by 1749 Bush Best % - Atlas Twp – 59.84% Kerry Best Votes – Flint City by 30837
Kerry Best % - Flint City – 83.07%

This used to be Buick City. Genesee County is always either the 2nd most or 3rd most democrat county in the state and is harder to win than Massachusetts. This year it is 3rd. This is the birthplace of the UAW. Bush actually did much better than he did in 2000 here, causing Kerry to run 3% behind Gore. This was largely due to Bush cutting his losses in the burbs, and actually winning Democrat leaning Flushing. He almost won Davison Twp and did respectable in Davison City. Michael Moore is from one of the Davisons. He stopped Kerry from getting 60% in Burton as well. Bush won Fenton, Linden and Grand Blanc heavily as well. He did the best he could do here. The problem was the heavily minority areas. Flint, Mt Morris, Genesee Twp, Flint Twp. They all voted. Genesee County is where I-75, I-69, and US-23. I-75 goes to Saginaw and Detroit. I-69 goes to Lapeer and Lansing. US-23 goes to Brighton and Ann Arbor. The best thing that could happen on Election Day here is a snowstorm.

Central Michigan
Bush – 59953 votes – 53.77%
Kerry - 50563 votes – 45.17%
Bush by 9590

It’s hard where to classify these counties. I’ve seen them as “Mid Michigan”, “West Michigan” and “North Michigan. Bush did about the same as he did in 2000 and he equaled Posthumus’ numbers as well.

Osceola County
Bush – 6599 – 58.98%, won by 2132
Kerry –4467 – 39.93%
Bush Best Votes – Highland Twp by 270
Bush Best % - Highland Twp – 74.59% Kerry best votes – Lost Cedar Twp by 50
Kerry best % - Hersey Twp – 46.01%

Kerry was swept here. Rural County between Big Rapids (Mecosta) and Cadillac (Wexford) on US 131. Centers around Reed city. Bush ran 1% ahead of his 2000 numbers here.

Clare County
Bush – 7088 – 49.82%, won by 104
Kerry –6984 – 49.09%
Bush Best Votes – Grand Twp by 218
Bush Best % - Arthur Twp – 73.24%
Kerry Best Votes – Hayes Twp by 150
Kerry Best % - Summerfield Twp – 58.01%

Bush picks up a county won by Granholm and Gore. It’s a mostly rural county with a strong outdoors heritage, but also has a high poverty rate. Known at the Gateway to the North and is where US 10 and US 27 meet. Between Roscommon and Mt Pleasant (Isabella).

Mecosta County
Bush – 9710 – 55.13%, won by 1980
Kerry –7730 – 43.97%
Bush Best Votes – Morton Twp by 456
Bush Best % - Hinton Twp – 64.29%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Big Rapids by 252
Kerry Best % - City of Big Rapids – 54.02%

Bush ran about the same here as in 2000. He lost ground in Big Rapids, which is a college town (Ferris State University), but improved in other areas like Morton twp. US 131 and M66 meet M-20 here. Big Rapids is the main city in this county which is west of Mt Pleasant.

Isabella County
Bush – 11754 – 48.19%
Kerry –12334 – 50.57%, won by 580
Bush Best Votes – Nottawa Twp by 130
Bush Best % - City of Clare – 65.00% (one precinct), Fremont Twp – 59.34% Kerry Best Votes – Mount Pleasant City by 1261
Kerry Best % - Mount Pleasant City – 58.56%

Central Michigan University, more than usual, tilted this county to the democrats at the top of the ticket. Went for Gore and Granholm with 49% Kerry improved on that by 1%, mostly likely due to turnout. US-27 and M-20. Between Big Rapids (Mecosta) and Midland.

Gratiot County
Bush – 9834 votes – 56.59%, won by 2457
Kerry –7377 – 42.45%
Bush Best Votes – Wheeler Twp by 286
Bush Best % - North Shade Twp – 70.36%
Kerry best votes – Lost New Haven Twp by 9.
Kerry best % - Alma City – 49.27%

Kerry was swept here. Bush ran 1% higher here than that time. Rural and small town county with Alma and St Louis. Between St Johns (Clinton) and Mt Pleasant (Isabella) on US-27.

Montcalm County
Bush – 14968 votes – 55.99%, won by 3497
Kerry – 11471 – 42.91%
Bush Best Votes – Pierson and Reynolds Townships by 411
Bush Best % - Bloomer Twp – 67.79%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Greenville by 115
Kerry Best % - Belvidere Twp – 52.68%

I am surprised Bush did slightly better here than in 2000. He lost ground in Greenville, but made it up elsewhere. Greenville is most known here for the Electrolux plant closing. Electrolux was the largest employer in the area. Outsourcing was a major issue, and Bush kept Kerry down to 51%. Greenville took it out on Congressman Dave Camp instead. Camp (who won everywhere else) lost Greenville by 600 votes. Montcalm County is west of Gratiot County and SW of Mt Pleasant.

West Michigan
Bush – 542904 votes – 57.56%
Kerry - 391234 votes – 41.48%
Bush by 151670

The GOP’s main base is in West Michigan. Bush ran similar to his 2000 numbers here, and ran about even with Posthumus.

Lake County
Bush – 2502 votes – 47.70%
Kerry –2675 votes – 51.00%, won by 173
Bush Best Votes – Chase Township by 126
Bush Best % - Sweetwater Twp – 61.11%
Kerry Best Votes – Yates Twp by 196
Kerry Best % - Yates Twp – 79.20%

If you look at the CORRECT Red/Blue map(there’s two maps, one has 3 counties wrong), you will find one isolated blue county in a see of red. That’s this one. Lake County has the highest poverty percentage in the state and also has a sizable black population. Idlewild was intended as a resort community for blacks during the days of segregation. It dwindled since the rise of the civil rights movement. Kerry ran 4% behind Gore here, most likely due to a higher white turnout. Lake County is between Ludington(Mason) and Reed City(Osceola).

Mason County
Bush – 8124 – 55.60%, won by 1791
Kerry – 6333 – 43.34%
Bush Best Votes - Hamlin Twp by 407
Bush Best % - Riverton Twp – 61.75%
Kerry Best Votes – Free Soil Twp by 64
Kerry Best % - Free Soil Twp – 55.80%

Bush ran 2% ahead of Posthumus and 1% of his 2000 numbers here. Ludington is the major city in Mason County. On the Lake Michigan Coast between Manistee and Hart (Oceana)

Oceana County
Bush – 6677 – 54.30%, won by 1236
Kerry – 5441 – 44.25%
Bush Best Votes – Shelby Twp by 288
Bush Best % - Hart Township – 60.15%
Kerry Best Votes – Newfield Twp by 133
Kerry Best % - Newfield Twp – 55.18%

Bush ran 1% lower than his 2000 numbers here and much of that has to do with Newfield Twp. He ran slightly ahead of Posthumus here. On the Lake Michigan Coast between Muskegon and Ludington (Mason).

Newaygo County
Bush – 13608 – 59.49%, won by 4551
Kerry –9057 – 39.60%
Bush Best Votes – Fremont City by 609
Bush Best % - Adams Twp – 68.88%
Kerry Best Votes – Merill Twp by 94
Kerry Best % - Merill Twp – 65.35%

Bush ran 1% ahead of on his 2000 numbers here, and 1% ahead of Posthumus’ 2002 numbers. Newaygo County is a large county north of Grand Rapids.

Muskegon County
Bush – 35302 – 43.96%
Kerry – 44282 – 55.14%, won by 8980
Bush Best Votes – Norton Shores City by 926
Bush Best % - Raveena Twp – 64.33%
Kerry Best Votes – Muskegon City by 6134
Kerry Best % - Muskegon Heights City – 92.24%

Kerry ran 1% less than Granholm did here, and about the same as Gore. This is the democrat stronghold in West Michigan due to unions and minorities. Muskegon (71.25% Kerry) is heavily black, and Muskegon Heights is 90% black. Norton Shores is the 2nd largest city and went marginally for Bush.

Kent County
Bush – 171201 – 58.85%, won by 54292
Kerry –116909 – 40.19%
Bush Best Votes – Wyoming City by 6545
Bush Best % - Byron Twp – 77.71%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Grand Rapids by 9679
Kerry Best % - City of Grand Rapids – 55.30%

Bush underperformed here. He got 59% last time and Posthumus got 60%. Bush did very well in the suburbs of Grand Rapids but got trounced there. Granholm got 50.30% there, and Gore won it by under 3000 votes. Grand Rapids has a large minority population, and also has more and more “Bohemian” types there, as well as an activist leftist group. It is still not as democrat as most major cities of about 200,000 people though. That said, the county won’t be going democrat anytime soon. Bush got over 55% in all but one of the burbs and townships, and broke 70% in 7 municipalities.

Ionia County Bush – 16621 – 60.14%
Kerry –10674 – 38.61%
Bush Best Votes – Boston Twp by 870
Bush Best % - Campbell Twp – 74.66%
Kerry Best Votes – North Plains Twp by 25
Kerry Best % - North Plains Twp – 51.08%

This was a near sweep. Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers, and 5% ahead of Posthumus’ 2002 numbers. The corrections workers at the prison didn’t vote for Kerry like they did for Granholm. Boston didn’t vote like Boston, MA either. Ionia is between Grand Rapids(Kent) and Lansing(Ingham).

Ottawa County
Bush – 92048 – 71.55%, won by 56496
Kerry – 35552 – 27.64%
Bush Best Votes – Georgetown Township by 15110
Bush Best % - Jamestown Twp – 88.47%
Kerry Best Votes – lost Ferrysburg City by 331
Kerry Best % - Grand Haven City – 45.46%

Kerry was swept. When Kerry’s best vote difference is in a city he got 40.29% in, that’s bad. He lost Grand Haven by 8% as well. Bush equaled his 2000 and Posthumus’ 2002 numbers here. This is the most GOP county in the state and is the center of Michigan’s Dutch settlements. The Grand Rapids burbs are in the NE, Holland in the South, and Grand Haven/Spring Lake in the North.

Barry County
Bush – 18638 – 61.57%, won by 7326
Kerry – 11312 – 37.37%
Bush Best Votes – Thornapple Twp by 1604
Bush Best % - Irving Twp – 71.04%
Kerry Best Votes – lost Prairieville Twp by 121
Kerry Best % - Prairieville Twp – 46.15%

Kerry was swept here too. Bush ran 1% higher than in 2000 and 2% higher than Posthumus did. It’s between Lansing and Kalamazoo, and between Jackson and Grand Rapids.

Allegan County
Bush – 34022 – 63.11%, won by 14667
Kerry – 19355 – 35.90%
Bush Best Votes – Laketown Twp by 1750
Bush Best % - Overisel Twp – 89.27%
Kerry Best Votes – Lee Township by 117
Kerry Best % - Saugatuck City – 54.79%

Saugatuck is known for gays, so it’s no surprise Kerry won there. Still, Allegan is one of the top 5 GOP counties year after year, along with Ottawa, Livingston, Hillsdale, and Missaukee. Allegan is on the Lake Michigan Coast between Ottawa and Van Buren Counties.

Kalamazoo County
Bush – 57147 – 47.71%
Kerry – 61462 – 51.31%, won by 4315
Bush Best Votes – Texas Twp by 1590
Bush Best % - Prairie Ronde Twp – 64.78%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Kalamazoo by 9999
Kerry Best % - Kalamazoo City – 66.61%

Once again, the University Towns go above and beyond for Hanoi John. Kalamazoo City is the home of Western Michigan University. It also has a large black population in its north end. Bush did do better than Posthumus did here, but it wasn’t enough to win. Kerry went 2% higher than Gore did here.

Van Buren County
Bush – 17634 – 51.60%, won by 1483
Kerry – 16151 – 47.26%
Bush Best Votes – Antwerp Twp by 373
Bush Best % - Hartford Twp – 60.80%
Kerry Best Votes – Covert Twp by 443
Kerry Best % - Covert Twp – 71.46%

Bush ran 1% higher than his 2000 numbers. Covert has a large black population so it makes an otherwise marginal GOP county competitive. Between Kalamazoo/Allegan Counties and Berrien County on the Lake Michigan Coast.

Berrien county
Bush – 41076 – 55.01%, won by 8230
Kerry – 32846 – 43.99%
Bush Best Votes – Lincoln Twp by 3172
Bush Best % - Royalton Twp – 71.54%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Benton Harbor by 3439
Kerry Best % - City of Benton Harbor – 95.29%

The SW corner of the state on Lake Michigan. Posthumus ran 2% ahead of Bush in both 00 and 04. That’s because of the Benton Harbor Turnout. This would be a 60%+ county otherwise. Benton Harbor is 90% black, and Benton Twp is about 65% black and went 69.89% for Hanoi John. The only other area to sometimes go dem is the city of Niles. The rest is solid GOP.

Cass County
Bush – 12964 – 57.12%, won by 3427
Kerry – 9537 – 42.02%
Bush Best Votes – Ontwa Twp by 809
Bush Best % - Ontwa Twp – 64.55%
Kerry Best Votes – Dowagiac City by 256
Kerry Best % - Dowagiac City – 55.39%

Bush won all except LaGrange and Dowagiac which are strongly dem. The rest of the county leans or is solid GOP. Bush ran 4% higher than 2000 here. Dowagiac is the major city here and is between Niles (Berrien) and Sturgis (St. Joseph)

St Joseph County
Bush – 15340 – 60.78%, won by 5692
Kerry – 9648 – 38.23%
Bush Best Votes – Sturgis City by 989
Bush Best % - Florence Twp – 71.11%
Kerry Best Votes – Three Rivers City by 73
Kerry Best % - Three Rivers City – 50.47%

Solid GOP County between Coldwater(Branch) and Dowagiac on the Indiana Border. Three Rivers is the only dem leaning area in the county. The rest is solid GOP. Bush ran 1% ahead of his 2000 numbers here.

South Central/Capital City
Bush – 247299 votes – 51.21%
Kerry - 230482 votes – 47.73%
Bush by 16817

This area went for Gore by 4128 and Granholm by 15,700 votes to this is a pickup for Bush.

Shiawassee County
Bush – 19407 – 52.95%, won by 2526
Kerry – 16881- 46.06%
Bush Best Votes – Bennington Twp by 394
Bush Best % - Antrim Twp – 60.82%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Owossso by 187
Kerry Best % - City of Durand – 53.33%

Shiawassee County is between Lansing and Flint on I-69. I think Shiawassee is finally going to our column with the exurban growth. It still has some democrat tradition at local levels, but we took the open state representative spot here, after term limits. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers here, and 1% ahead of Posthumus here. The western part of the county is mostly Lansing commuters, and the eastern part of the county is mostly Flint Commuters. Owosso is the major city, and Durand is the most democrat part of the city with the UAW commuters.

Clinton County
Bush – 21989 – 58.16%, won by 6506
Kerry –15483 – 40.95%
Bush Best Votes – Dallas Twp by 723
Bush Best % - Dallas Twp – 78.79%
Kerry Best Votes – City of East Lansing by 99
Kerry Best % - City of East Lansing – 63.00%

Clinton County went big for Bush. Bush ran 5% ahead of Posthumus here and 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers. The state workers who are republican came back home for Bush after backing Granholm. Clinton County is rural on the north end and has Lansing suburbs on the south end. Granholm won DeWitt by 270. Bush won it by 792. East Lansing gets the dubious distinction of being the most democrat part of two different counties by percentage. Guns are a major issue in this county as it was for concealed carry before the shall issue law. There’s only one precinct of the county there, but that may change with the annexation and number of MSU students moving to apartments in the southern part of Bath Twp, which Kerry won by 3 votes.

Eaton County
Bush – 29781 – 53.41%, won by 4370
Kerry –25411 – 45.58%
Bush Best Votes – Eaton Twp by 597
Bush Best % - Sunfield Twp – 63.23%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Lansing by 1136
Kerry Best % - City of Lansing – 78.33%

Eaton County is a fast growing county to the West of Lansing. Eaton was a big win for Bush since it’s been treading more and more dem. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers and ran 6% ahead of Posthumus here, due to the GOP state workers switching back to Bush after backing Granholm(who won Eaton). Bush again won Delta Twp which was a little surprising. He also won Eaton Rapids, which is a tough area to win. The rural parts went heavily GOP, offsetting Lansing. The only spot he lost was the part of Lansing in Eaton which isn’t the best part of the city. Lansing gets the dubious distinction of being the leading vote difference for Johnny in two different counties.

Ingham County
Bush – 54734 – 41.15%
Kerry – 57.78%, won by 22143
Bush Best Votes – Delhi Twp by 726
Bush Best % - Locke Twp – 63.97%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Lansing by 16001
Kerry Best % - City of East Lansing – 70.16%

This is the 4th most democrat county in the state. Considering the butt kicking Bush got in suburban Okemos as well as the normal losses in Lansing and East Lansing, this could have been even worse. Bush ran even with his 2000 numbers, and ran 4% ahead of Posthumus in 2002. Bush did very well actually in most of the county and won all but four areas. He won Delhi Twp and Mason which he lost in 2000. The only area he did worse was Meridian Twp which he lost closely in 2000. This time he lost it by 2789. Meridian Twp is Okemos. Haslett and has a lot of soccer moms, some MSU students, rich liberals, MSU faculty, and “professionals.” Lansing’s a GM town, the state capital, and also has some MSU students and faculty. It has a fairly large minority population as well. East Lansing is the home of MSU and also has a lot of Lansing commuters. Lansing (65.86% dem) and East Lansing are a 1-2 punch almost impossible to beat.

Jackson County
Bush – 40029 – 55.75%, won by 9004
Kerry – 31025 – 43.21%
Bush Best Votes – Summit Twp by 2315
Bush Best % - Spring Arbor Twp – 70.77%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Jackson by 1885
Kerry Best % - City of Jackson – 56.97%

Bush swept everything outside of Jackson City. Outside of the city and two townships next to it, Jackson leans Republican. Summit and Spring Arbor are staunchly GOP. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers and 4% ahead of Posthumus.

Calhoun County
Bush – 32093 – 51.21%, won by 2202
Kerry – 29891 – 47.70%
Bush Best Votes – Pennfield twp by 711
Bush Best % - Eckford Twp – 63.80%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Albion by 1278
Kerry Best % - City of Albion – 70.11%

Bush picked up this county west of Jackson, which he lost in 2000. It went for Granholm as well. Bush cut his losses by 500 in Battle Creek where he held Kerry to 52%. Albion is heavily minority and solidly democrat.

Branch County
Bush – 10787 – 60.03%, won by 3783
Kerry – 7004 – 38.98%
Bush Best Votes – City of Coldwater by 524
Bush Best % - Noble Twp – 72.07%
Kerry Best Votes – Lost California Twp by 77
Kerry Best % - Sherwood Twp – 44.25%

This was a clean sweep. Kerry lost by 10% or more in every city of township here. Branch County is between Marshall/Battle Creek and Fort Wayne, Indiana. Bush ran 5% ahead of his 2000 numbers here and 6% ahead of Posthumus.

Hillsdale County
Bush – 12804 – 63.34%, won by 5681
Kerry – 7123 – 35.23%
Bush Best Votes – Hillsdale City by 688
Bush Best % - Adams Twp – 72.70%
Kerry Best Votes – Lost Reading City by 79
Kerry Best % - Somerset Twp – 42.69%

Hillsdale was not friendly to Kerry at all. He only broke 40% in one township, and he lost that one by 341 votes. Hillsdale was 3rd in percentage for Bush in the state. Bush ran 3% higher than he did in 2000. Hillsdale is most well known for one of the most conservative universities in the state. It’s between Coldwater (Branch) and Adrian (Lenawee) on the Southern Border)

Lenawee County
Bush – 25675 – 54.61%, won by 4888
Kerry –20787 – 44.22%
Bush Best Votes – Adrian Twp by 690
Bush Best % - Odgen Twp – 64.25%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Adrian by 701
Kerry Best % - City of Adrian – 53.89%

Bush did very well in Lenawee, which voted, for a democrat state rep for the fourth straight time. Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers and 3% ahead of Posthumus here. Lenawee is a blue collar social conservative county. The City of Adrian tilts heavily democrat, Tecumseh swings, and the rest of the county, including Adrian Twp, is conservative. Between Monroe and Hillsdale.

The Thumb
Bush – 105988 votes – 55.65%
Kerry - 82403 votes – 43.27%
Bush by 23585

The thumb is a very conservative and rural area, although not always republican. There’s a strong limited government and independent streak there. Posthumus ran 1% ahead of Bush there, largely due to his farming roots. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 200 numbers here.

Huron County Bush – 9671 – 55.37%, won by 2042
Kerry – 7629 – 43.68%
Bush Best Votes – Winsor Twp by 324
Bush Best % - Winsor Twp – 67.33%
Kerry Best Votes – Meade Twp by 72
Kerry Best % - Meade Twp – 59.20%

Bush ran even with his 2000 numbers, and Posthumus ran 4% higher here. Huron is the northernmost county in the thumb with Saginaw Bay on the West and Lake Huron in the East

Sanilac County
Bush – 13632 – 60.84%, won by 4749
Kerry – 7883 – 37.97%
Bush Best Votes – Marlette Twp by 378
Bush Best % - Custer Twp 73.32%
Kerry Best Votes – Croswell City by 3
Kerry Best % - Croswell City – 49.22%

A near sweep for Bush. He won everywhere outside of Croswell. He ran 1% ahead of his 2000 numbers here. Alongside Lake Huron.

Tuscola County
Bush – 15389 – 54.31%, won by 2758
Kerry – 12631 – 44.57%
Bush Best Votes – Denmark Twp by 584
Bush Best % - Denmark Twp – 65.75%
Kerry Best Votes – Indianfields twp by 60
Kerry Best % - Arbela Twp – 51.04%

Tuscola is a very independent county east of Saginaw and Bay City. There’s more of a union presence here than elsewhere due to commuters. Bush ran even with his 2000 numbers and ran 2% under Posthumus here. Dems have won here in the past, although it’s been GOP for statewide top of the ticket races here since 96.

Lapeer County
Bush – 25556 – 57.89%, won by 7470
Kerry – 18086 – 40.97%
Bush Best Votes – Dryden twp by 789
Bush Best % - Burnside Twp – 68.39%
Kerry Best Votes – Marathon Twp by 277
Kerry Best % - Marathon Tap – 55.05%

Lapeer is starting to become an exurban county and also a base county for the GOP. Flint is to the West along I-69 and Suburban Oakland County is to the South. Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers here, although Posthumus ran 1% higher. I believe Klinton won here in 96, so this is a good development here.

St Clair County Bush – 42740 – 53.60%, won by 6566
Kerry – 36174 – 45.36%
Bush Best Votes – Clay Twp by 997
Bush Best % - Berlin Twp – 65.05%
Kerry Best Votes – City of Port Huron by 1497
Kerry Best % - City of Port Huron – 55.51%

Bush ran very well here. He had 49% and won by 500 votes back in 2000. He ran 1% ahead of Posthumus as well. Bush won everywhere outside of Port Huron city and township. He even won Marysville and Kimball Twp which usually go democrat. St Clair County is one of most pro-2a areas in the state. Hopefully, this county will no longer be a swing county for us.

SE Michigan (Outside Detroit Area):
Bush – 157785 votes – 46.25%
Kerry - 180033 votes – 52.77%
Kerry by 22248

Livingston County:
Bush – 58860 – 62.79%, won by 24869
Kerry – 33991 – 36.26%
Bush Best votes – Genoa Twp by 3473
Bush Best % - Iosco Twp – 68.96%
Kerry Best votes – Lost Brighton City by 463
Kerry Best % - Brighton City – 43.81%

The democrats thought they were going to have a big year here in the fastest growing county in the state. The paper always says that the next election will be when the democrats take Livingston like they are doing to Oakland. Then there’s an election day shocker. o the dems’ credit, they gained 5000 votes over 2000. However, we gained 10,000 more here than 2000 and Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers. To add insult to injury, the two swing townships went 57% for Bush, and the marginal City of Brighton went 55% for Bush. This is a pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, anti-tax county, and John Kerry didn’t sell here. Unfortunately, while we had a big year, so did the county just to the South of us.

Washtenaw County
Bush – 61455 – 36.26%
Kerry – 109953 – 63.46%
Bush Best votes – Salem Twp by 800
Bush Best % Salem Twp – 60.65%
Kerry Best votes –City of Ann Arbor by 31964
Kerry Best % -City of Ypsilanti – 77.99%

This is the home of Ann Arbor and it was a total disaster for us. Kerry ran 3 or 4% ahead of Gore in 2000 thanks to the University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University in Ypsilanti. Massive turnout here killed us. Ann Arbor went 69.22% for Gore and 76.51% for Kerry. Ypsi went from 71.69% to 77.99%. Pittsfield Twp (Between A2 and Ypsi) went from 55% to 60%. Scio (Western Ann Arbor) from 53% to 59%. Ann Arbor Twp (North end) went from 54% to 62%. The amazing part in this – Bush gained 9000 votes here from 2000. It is just a case of Kerry’s people gaining 23000 for him. They did the same thing to us as we did to them in Livingston, but in spades.

Detroit Area:
Bush – 776,549 votes – 40.68%
Kerry – 1,115,994 votes – 58.44%
Kerry by 339045

Macomb County
Bush – 202166 – 50.24%, won by 6006
Kerry – 196160 – 48.75%
Bush Best votes – Shelby Twp by 7469
Bush Best % - Lake Twp – 68.75%
Kerry Best votes – City of Warren by 7706
Kerry Best % - City of Eastpointe – 61.87%

This is the home of the Reagan Democrats. Bush won Macomb, which he lost in 2000. He did run 1% below Posthumus though. He only lost Eastpointe and Mt Clemens by 20% or more unlike 2000. Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores were tough marginal losses which Posthumus won. He ran up big numbers in the northern areas of the county, and he didn’t lose Warren by as much as he did in 2000. Bordered by Lake St Clair in the East, Dequindre on the West, 8 Mile on the South, and by the town of Memphis in the North.

Oakland County
Bush – 316633 votes – 49.32%
Kerry – 319387 votes – 49.75%, won by 2754
Bush Best votes – City of Rochester Hills by 7162
Bush Best % - City of Lake Angelus – 82.51%
Kerry Best votes – City of Southfield by 26558
Kerry Best % - Royal Oak Twp – 95.08%

It’s another tough narrow loss in Oakland County, which has now gone democrat 4 of the last 5 times. (98 the exception). Kerry couldn’t break 50% unlike Granholm, but still won it. Oakland’s politics is heavily regional.

The North and West ends of the county are the most GOP. Novi (57.24%), Milford (61.92%), Orion (61.60%), Independence (63.50%), Oakland (62.63%), are much of the base. These are the exhurbs and fastest growing areas of the county. The Livingston County and Lapeer County Borders are the best areas. Generally, these are either West of I-275 or north of M-59.

SE end – Oakland’s Democrat Base. Below 13 or 14 mile and east of Telegraph, there are few republicans. Ferndale (67.87%) is known as the gay friendly area of Michigan. Royal Oak (54.57%) is liberal, although some republicans do win there. Southfield (81.78%) has a black majority, as does Oak Park (78.99%) and Royal Oak Township (95.08%), all of which border Detroit to the south. Pleasant Ridge (62.78%) is the home of the major zoo, and Huntington Woods (70.82%) is Gilda Jacobs country. Gilda is our state’s Dianne Feinstein. An election day snowstorm here would be nice.

Central to Central East – Rochester Hills (58.81%) and Troy (56.52%) are solid GOP areas. Pontiac (79.21%) is a dem stronghold and a GM town. Auburn Hills (53.03%) leans dem with Diamler-Chrysler, but isn’t solid dem. Tom McMillan won there several times. He’s ultra conservative and fights the RINOS as much as the dems. Waterford (54.20%) is a blue-collar marginal GOP area that the dems have been trying and failing to win for years. Birmingham (54.70%) is more liberal, but republican. West Bloomfield (55.34%) is majority Jewish and is going more and more democrat. They do sometimes ticket split. It went GOP for congress (Knollenberg) several times, but Gore won by 14% there, Granholm won by 19%, and Kerry won it by 11.35%. The other Bloomfields are more GOP. Farmington Hills (52.92%) has become very socially liberal and went for Kerry. Oakland is going to be tougher and tougher with Detroit’s migration to Southfield and Oak Park. A lot of the old 84 Reagans now moved to Livingston, Lapeer, and Macomb counties as well. Wayne County Bush – 257750 – 29.81%
Kerry – 600047 – 69.39%, won by 342297
Bush Best votes – City of Livonia by 5478
Bush Best % - City of Grosse Pointe Farms – 66.18%
Kerry Best votes – City of Detroit by 285915
Kerry Best % - City of Highland Park – 94.44%

In the end, the election always comes down to Wayne County and its turnout. When we get turnouts like this (legal or illegal), we don’t win. Detroit lost 100,000 people since 2000, but it gained voters? That doesn’t sound right. Wayne County has four areas.

Detroit (93.65%) is the brick wall all Republicans need to get by. If Detroit GOTV, we lose. Bush twice got 5% there, as did Posthumus. Detroit is the most democrat big city (over 100,000 people) in the entire country. That includes Berkeley, Oakland CA, San Francisco, Washington DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and any Borough of New York City. If Detroit does not turn out, we win if we turn out.

Grosse Points – Solid GOP – Bush won four of the five Grosse Pointes.(Township, GP, GP Farms, GP Woods) He lost GP Park narrowly which is closest to Downtown Detroit. I am assuming the Township is GP Shores, which was not listed on the Secretary of State site.

South Wayne/Downriver – Traditionally social conservative but Democrat and union, Unfortunately, Bush ran behind Posthumus here. Posthumus won Allen Park ,Gibralter, Huron Twp, and Grosse Ile. Bush won Grosse Ile and Dearborn the first time. This time, he won Huron Twp (50.77%) and Grosse Ile(62.58%), losing Allen Park (52.11%) and Gibralter (51.40%). He was pounded in Dearborn this time. Kerry won it with 58.55%. It was an improvement over 2000 though outside of Dearborn. Gore won Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte all with over 60%. Granholm failed to get 60% in any of them. Kerry failed to get 60% in Southgate, Taylor and Wyandotte. Romulus, Ecorse, River Rouge, Inkster all went 72%+ for Kerry with their large black populations, the latter three breaking 80%.

West Wayne – This is more GOP friendly than the rest of the county. Bush ran ahead of Posthumus in most of the area since Granholm was from here. Bush narrowly won Plymouth Township (49.49%) and won Northville (61.22%) and Plymouth Townships (57.87%) big. The dems win big again in Westland (57.87%). Livonia was 54% GOP once again. Redford (57.44%) and Dearborn Heights (56.29%) were big wins for the democrats. They were close in the last two elections. I posted my first report and my second report at those two threads so I you can see me eat my words in a way. I thought Bush was going to win MI based on the exurbs, Kerry’s poor candidacy, third party voting, and due to Detroit’s declining population. I was right on the exurbs, but wrong on Detroit and overestimated the third party vote. I was right on the race being within 5%. I also underestimated the poor showing at university towns. I expected bad showings, but not like what happened in Ann Arbor. I expected about the same as Granholm there. 2006 and 2008 will be interesting here. Granholm (51%) and Stabenow (49%) are up for re-election. Granholm raised taxes and Stabenow hasn’t done jack in her time there. The odds there depend on who runs. In 2008, an outsider away from Washington would have the best shot at winning here. Most of the Kerry vote was strictly anti-Bush. What needs to happen here most of all though is to stop the voter fraud. I think it beat us at least twice, if not three times.


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Michigan
KEYWORDS: 2000; 2002; 2004; bush; cities; counties; elections; kerry; michigan; precincts; report; results; townships

1 posted on 02/26/2005 1:21:03 PM PST by Dan from Michigan
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To: All
First Report

Second Report

2 posted on 02/26/2005 1:22:19 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Dan from Michigan

Awww Man Dan,

I just bought a book today... Now I have this? Looks like "Your Best Life Now" is gonna have to wait until I blow through this baby.... :)


3 posted on 02/26/2005 1:23:44 PM PST by Hand em their arse
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To: Torie; AuH2ORepublican; JohnnyZ; Impy; fieldmarshaldj
PING.

All the official results are out by precinct now.

4 posted on 02/26/2005 1:24:20 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Dan from Michigan

So did Bush carry the Knollenberg district?


5 posted on 02/26/2005 1:32:49 PM PST by Torie
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To: Dan from Michigan

This analysis is good as far as it goes, but for me it really isn't detailed enough. <\sarcasm>


6 posted on 02/26/2005 1:34:28 PM PST by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
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To: Dan from Michigan

I cannot understand why the UP is not overwhelmingly republican.


7 posted on 02/26/2005 2:00:43 PM PST by Meldrim
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To: Dan from Michigan
Lo' there Dan. As a Canadian, I do, of course, refrain from saying ANYTHING as a guest in the Upper Penninsula of Michigan, politics that is. Even if one was on course with the prevailing oppinion, I find that it's better to observe and enjoy. (Oh, get on with it PL).

Liberal spouse and I just enjoy our trips to Bay Mills (Casino). They just shaded it for Senator Kerry. No wonder.

Always a shameless booster for Newberry, Michigan myself. Memories, memories. Luce County absolutely solid for GWB. The big State hospital, which I visited many moons ago, now gone. A medium security prison in it's place. Just in case any Freepers who just might like GWB (laughs) are in the UP, they might stop in at the historic Falls Hotel. Cheers.

8 posted on 02/26/2005 2:01:26 PM PST by Peter Libra (,)
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To: Recovering_Democrat

The MIGOP wasted its time with "ballot integrity" programs in Detroit while the unions and MoveOn blew us away in the suburbs. Our best people were stuck eating donuts in polling locations in Detroit on election day and not doing GOTV. The MIGOP had too many lawyers running the campaign so they could get appointed judges someday.


9 posted on 02/26/2005 2:07:55 PM PST by coolconsideratemen
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To: Torie
Bush won by about 5707 votes, plus some of the absentees in parts of a Orion Twp district. (which went for Bush by 900 votes)
10 posted on 02/26/2005 2:10:39 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Meldrim

Most of the folks up there are on some form of public assistance.


11 posted on 02/26/2005 2:14:52 PM PST by 1rudeboy
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To: Peter Libra

I haven't been to Newberry yet. I've been to Tahquanemon nearby though. Beautiful area.


12 posted on 02/26/2005 2:15:29 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Dan from Michigan
Ya, I just finished an excel match myself, and came up with the following for the Michigan 9th CD:


Bush     Kerry

180,630	174,030
	
50.46%	48.62%

13 posted on 02/26/2005 2:18:16 PM PST by Torie
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To: Dan from Michigan
MI was never in play to the Bush Team - It was simply a head-fake the entire Fall to try and get Team Kerry to invest more in MI (time and $) - Which the Kerry people finally fell for in mid to late Oct -

MI is going the way of NJ -

14 posted on 02/26/2005 2:37:29 PM PST by SevenMinusOne
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To: Dan from Michigan
MI was never in play to the Bush Team - It was simply a head-fake the entire Fall to try and get Team Kerry to invest more in MI (time and $) - Which the Kerry people finally fell for in mid to late Oct -

MI is going the way of NJ -

15 posted on 02/26/2005 2:38:02 PM PST by SevenMinusOne
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To: Torie
I had 50.34% and 48.74% (missed some 3rd party votes) without the Orion absentees.
Bush - 179785, Kerry - 174078
16 posted on 02/26/2005 2:40:54 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: DevSix

Since Engler left I have been saying that MI has become the Vermont of the Midwest. I like the NJ analogy, though.


17 posted on 02/26/2005 2:50:56 PM PST by coolconsideratemen
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To: DevSix; coolconsideratemen
I'd say it's more like Illinois although not as liberal on social issues(although more pro-union).

Wayne County is like their Cook County.

18 posted on 02/26/2005 3:14:13 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Dan from Michigan

Dude - MI is so liberal, it makes FEWFC look conservative!


19 posted on 02/26/2005 3:23:42 PM PST by patton (Matthew 6:6)
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To: Dan from Michigan

The job situation in MI is killing the GOP. If unemployment isn't so high, Bush might have solidly won MI.


20 posted on 02/26/2005 4:08:22 PM PST by Kuksool (Principles Mean Nothing Without Political Power)
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To: Dan from Michigan
The only Republican Stronghold here is Midland,

Nice to know it still is. But I'll bet it's nothing like the stronghold that once voted 99% for AuH2O.

21 posted on 02/26/2005 4:25:28 PM PST by sionnsar (†trad-anglican.faithweb.com† || Iran Azadi || Where are we going, and why are we in this handbasket?)
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To: sionnsar

I have an AuH20 lapel pin in my desk. That's a blast from the past! The problem in Michigan right now is that there's no Republican here with the cajones to take on the most Gorgeous Governor in the World (fully poseable Jennie Granholm).


22 posted on 02/26/2005 4:38:25 PM PST by coolconsideratemen
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To: patton

Isn't FEWFC represented by Jim Moran????!!!


23 posted on 02/26/2005 5:08:20 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Dan from Michigan

Yeah...and you have the liberal skank!


24 posted on 02/26/2005 5:10:50 PM PST by patton (Matthew 6:6)
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To: Dan from Michigan
Dan, thanks for putting this together ... very informative.  Regrettabtly, I see my county, Oakland, went to Kerry.  It's a surprise, I thought it would go to Bush seeing all the Bush/Cheney signs that were prominent around my area.
25 posted on 02/26/2005 5:55:47 PM PST by usgator
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To: Dan from Michigan

Thanks for the post/information Dan. Outstanding!


26 posted on 02/26/2005 7:46:09 PM PST by PGalt
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To: Dan from Michigan
Thanks Dan!  This is very inforamtive.  Just sad to hear my county, Oakland, went with Kerry.  Kind of a surprise considering all the Bush/Cheney signs I've seen in my area.
27 posted on 02/26/2005 8:38:20 PM PST by usgator
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To: usgator

The big problem for Republicans there is Southfield, Oak Park, and Pontiac. A lot of the black flight from Detroit is going there.


28 posted on 02/26/2005 8:50:34 PM PST by Dan from Michigan ("There out ta get me! They won't catch me! I'm #@^#@# innocent! They won't break me" - Guns N Roses)
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To: Dan from Michigan
That is a very good point.  My area, West Bloomfield/Waterford/White Lake, seemed to have a lot of Bush/Cheney signs although that doesn't necessarily mean that the entire area went Republican, just the neighborhoods I went thru.  Oh well, there are 4 more years to see if changes can be made.
29 posted on 02/26/2005 9:32:11 PM PST by usgator
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To: patton

Not that liberal. Not counting Wayne County--Detroit--the rest of Michigan went for Bush by about 176,000 votes. The Kerry margin of 342,000 votes in Wayne County gave him a state-wide win of 166,000. As Dan pointed out, Michigan and Detroit have a very similar vote pattern to Illinois and Chicago in which the big city democrat machinery churns out enough votes to off-set whatever the rest of the state does.


30 posted on 02/27/2005 9:53:02 AM PST by mark502inf
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To: Dan from Michigan

Dan, very, very well done. A great effort and wonderful analysis. Bookmarked in my favorites.


31 posted on 02/27/2005 9:54:15 AM PST by mark502inf
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To: Dan from Michigan

Excellent work, Dan! Thank you.


32 posted on 02/28/2005 2:19:24 PM PST by AuH2ORepublican (Extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice, moderation in the pursuit of justice is no virtue.)
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