Skip to comments.Michigan Election Results and analysis by County, city, and Township. (2004 compared with 02, 00)
Posted on 02/26/2005 1:21:02 PM PST by Dan from Michigan
Election Report Pt 3 - Michigan 2004 In Depth (Township by Township)
This is a follow-up to the 2000 and 2002 reports I did. Unfortunately, we are having a problem with close losses here in Michigan. Detroits turnout has been killing us lately, and we are going to have to make up the ground in other places.
Bush 2313476 47.81%
Kerry 2479183 - 51.23%
Kerry won by 165707
Bush cut Gores lead by about 60,000, but it was not enough thanks to Detroit and Washtenaw County.
Bush 78278 votes 51.52%
Kerry - 71888 votes 47.31%
Bush by 6388
Bush slightly improved on his 2000 numbers here. He already over performed here in a historically democrat part of the state, so there was not a lot of extra room for improvement unless you had Geoff Fieger at the top of the ticket. Granholm won the UP in 2002 by 5172 votes so the fact that Bush did better than he did in 2000 shows something.
Bush 2318 48.65%
Kerry 2395 50.26%, won by 77
Bush Best votes Munising Township by 136
Bush Best % - Grand Island Township 65.63% Kerry Best votes Munising City by 106
Kerry Best % - Mathias Twp 62.58%
This was the one county that Bush won in 2000 (with 49%) that he lost in 2004. Its a strongly democrat county at the local level, and Granholm won it with 52.59% in 02. Bush won 3 municipalities (City or Township) and Kerry won 7. That was the difference. Alger County is the home of Pictured Rocks Lakeshore on Lake Superior and is between Marquette and Newberry.
Bush 1977 53.66%, won by 317
Kerry 1660 45.06%
Bush Best votes Lanse Township by 165
Bush Best % - Covington Township 55.95%
Kerry Best votes Spurr Township by 9
Kerry Best % - Spurr Township 52.33%
Bush did about the same as 2000 here. Granholm won it narrowly by 93 votes. This County is West of Marquette in the Western UP
Bush 9122 55.33%, won by 1919
Kerry 7203 43.69%
Bush Best votes Pickford Township by 358
Bush Best % - Chippewa Township 69.68%
Kerry Best votes Bay Mills Township by 55
Kerry Best % - Raber Township by 49
Bush improved heavily in Chippewa County over 2000. Granholm won it in 02. He cut into his losses in Bay Mills which is over ½ minority(Chippewa). He also won Sault Ste Marie which is the home of Lake Superior State. It might be the only University town he wins. This is the home of the soo and Tahquanemon Falls.
Bush 9680 50.32%, won by 299
Kerry 9381 48.76%
Bush Best votes Escanaba Township by 246
Bush Best % - Bark River Township 59.93%
Kerry Best votes Escanaba City by 102
Kerry Best % - Garden Township 53.33%
Historically a conservative democrat county, its now become a swing county. Bush won here twice narrowly (50 and 51%), and Granholm won narrowly in 02. It finally elected a republican state rep in 2002 in a big upset. Delta County is right on Green Bay in the South Central UP.
Bush 7734 57.08, won by 2084
Kerry 5650 41.70%
Bush Best votes Breitung Township by 781
Bush Best % - Feltch Township 68.59%
Kerry Best votes Norway City by 23
Kerry Best % - West Branch Twp 54.72%
This is one of Bushs best counties in the UP. It covers Kingsford and Iron Mountain, the home of Tom Izzo and Steve Mariucci. Bush won it with 55% in 00, and Posthumus won it with 52% in 02.
Kerry 52.31%, won by 486
Bush Best votes Watersmeet Twp by 117
Bush Best % - Marenesco Twp 60.00%
Kerry Best votes Ironwood City by 467
Kerry Best % - Ironwood City 57.55%
Bush somehow was able to hold Gore to 49% here in the 2nd most democrat county in the UP. It wasnt going to happen this time. Granholm won with 57% here and Nader wasnt a factor this year. Ironwoods turnout was too big. This is the furthest Western part of the UP and is part of the Iron Range region that includes Duluth Minnesota and Superior Wisconsin.
Bush 8889 56.08%, won by 2158
Kerry 6731 42.46%
Bush Best votes Calumet Township by 614
Bush Best % - Chassell Township 66.70%
Kerry Best votes Houghton City by 138
Kerry Best % - Adams Township 53.46%
Kerry stole Houghton City this time (Home of Michigan Tech), but Bush still got the county. All the Nader votes went to Kerry here so he did gain ground.
Bush 3224 votes 49.52%, won by 9
Kerry 3215 49.38%
Bush Best votes Iron River Township by 117
Bush Best % - Iron River Township 58.80%
Kerry Best votes Crystal Falls City by 107
Kerry Best % - Caspian City 58.95%
This was a shocker. Iron County is (usually) the 3rd most dem county in the UP. Gore won it narrowly and Granholm won it big. Bush only one 4 townships here, but was helped by a strong Iron River Twp and Bates Twp turnout.
Bush 781 54.27%, won by 151
Kerry 630 43.78%
Bush Best votes Eagle Harbor Twp by 60
Bush Best % - Eagle Harbor Twp 62.34%
Kerry Best Votes Lost Sherman Township by 2
Kerry Best % - Sherman Twp 47.62%
Kerry was swept here. The Northern most point in Michigan. Copper Harbor and Isle Royal. Reliably GOP.
Bush 1749 61.82%, won by 704
Kerry 1045 36.94%
Bush Best votes Lakefield Township by 258
Bush Best % - Lakefield Township 68.17%
Kerry best votes Lost Columbus Township by 29
Kerry best % - McMillan Twp 39.94%
Kerry was swept here. There must be a lot of state workers here who are conservative. Bush won Luce big with 58% in 2000, but Granholm won it in 2002 with low turnout and a near sweep. This was Bushs top county in the UP and covers Newberry. The Marquette stop may have helped this county.
Bush 3706 56.16%, won by 887
Kerry 2819 42.72%
Bush Best votes Clark Twp by 287
Bush Best % - Marquette Twp 64.63%
Kerry Best votes St Ignace Township by 21
Kerry Best % - St Ignace Township 51.67%
This would have been even more one sided if it was not for the Chippewa vote. This very large East-West county goes from Drummond County, to the Bridge, and almost to Manistique. Bush got 55% here last time and improved from before. Posthumus barely won it.
Bush 14690 45.22%
Kerry 17412 53.60%, won by 2722
Bush Best votes Chocolay Twp by 255
Bush Best % - Wells Township 61.87%
Kerry Best votes Marquette City by 1563
Kerry Best % - Richmond Twp 69.52%
The democrats top stronghold in the UP is Marquette County. Heavily union and also the home of Northern Michigan University. Granholm got 58% here. Gore won it with 53% with Nadler blocking him. Bush lost by 10% here last time so he did improve and his visit did probably help him here. Marquette, Ishpeming, and Neguanee are a 1-2-3 punch that is hard to stop. I think Engler was the only republican to win here at the top of the ticket since McGovern, or maybe the 70s RINO Milliken.
Bush 5942 52.04%, won by 616
Kerry 5326 46.64%
Bush Best votes Ingallston twp by 125
Bush Best % - Stephenson twp 66.15%
Kerry Best votes Menominee City by 232
Kerry Best % - Menominee City 52.59%
Bush lost a little ground here in this Green Bay County. He got 53% last time. Almost all of his trouble came in the city. He won almost everywhere else. Posthumus won here in 02, and Bush won here twice.
Bush 2262 53.96%, won by 399
Kerry 1863 44.44%
Bush Best votes Ontonagon Twp by 241
Bush Best % - Rockland Twp 64.29%
Kerry Best votes Carp Lake Twp by 57
Kerry Best % - Interior Twp 58.85%
This was a really bad county for Bush. He swept Gore here and got 60% last time. Posthumus won here by the skin of his teeth in 02, so my guess is that most of these voters voted with their wallet and that this county has even a stronger independent streak than the rest of the UP.
Bush 2267 51.05%, won by 130
Kerry 2137 48.12%
Bush Best votes Germfask twp by 94
Bush Best % - Germfask Twp 69.49%
Kerry Best votes Manistique City by 74
Kerry Best % - Manistique City 52.30%
Bush amazingly won Schoolcraft twice. Its usually a dem county. Granholm won it by 7%, and it is dem on the local level. Its between Escanaba and St Ignace on Lake Michigan.
Bush 49026 votes 53.13%
Kerry - 42221 votes 45.75%
Bush by 6805
This was a major improvement over Bushs 2000 and Posthumus 2002 numbers. Bush won every county here, even reliably Democrat Alpena. Bush lost Iosco, Alpena, Ogemaw, and Roscommon in 2000. Bush 00 and Posthumus 02 got 50% Bush got 53% this time.
Bush 7798 votes 56.15%, won by 1857
Kerry 5941 votes 42.78%
Bush Best votes Tuscarora Twp by 339
Bush Best % - Koehler Twp 61.71%
Kerry Best votes Forest Twp by 33
Kerry Best % - Forest Twp 53.16%
This is near the Mackinac Bridge on the Lake Huron coast. Bush ran 2% higher than last time here. He won all except Forest Twp.
Presque Isle County
Bush 3982 52.98%, won by 550
Kerry 3432 45.66%
Bush Best votes Presque Isle Twp by 133
Bush Best % - Moltke Twp 65.59%
Kerry Best votes Posen Twp by 63
Kerry Best % - Pulawski Twp 60.61%
A marginal GOP county between Cheboygan and Alpena. Bush won it with 51% last time and nearly broke 53% this time.
Bush 3300 59.32%, won by 1104
Kerry 2196 39.48%
Bush Best votes Briley Twp by 221
Bush Best % - Rust Twp 70.63% Kerry best votes Lost Loud Twp by 31
Kerry best % - Albert Twp 42.32%
Bush nearly swept Gore here in 2000, and Granholm was swept by Posthumus here in 2002. Bush swept Kerry this time. Bush ran 4% better here than 2000. Covers Atlanta which is the elk capital of Michigan. This is an inland county between Alpena and Gaylord.
Bush 7666 50.39%, won by 258
Kerry 7407 48.70%
Bush Best votes Wilson Twp by 217
Bush Best % - Wellington Twp 66.42%
Kerry Best votes City of Alpena by 391
Kerry Best % - City of Alpena 53.27%
This was an upset. Gore and Granholm both won it, and it is sometimes 70% dem on the local level if you have a moderate populist democrat running. (Pro-life, pro-gun, pro-union). Granholm got 57% in the county, partly due to partisanship, but also due to the DNR and deer hunting rules by them from the Deer TB epidemic. Bush won here since he was able to lower his losses in Alpena City and Twp.
Bush 2570 58.29%, won by 778
Kerry 1792 40.64%
Bush Best votes Comins Twp by 365
Bush Best % - Comins Twp - 68.98%
Kerry best votes Lost Mentor Twp by 31
Kerry best % - Mentor Twp 47.00%
Kerry was swept here. Bush ran 3% higher than in 2000 here in this inland county. This is centered around Mio which is between Harrisville (Alcona County) and Grayling (Crawford County).
Bush 3592 55.00%, won by 721
Kerry 2871 43.96%
Bush Best votes Harrisville Twp by 175
Bush Best % - Mitchell Twp 62.17%
Kerry Best votes Curtis Twp by 34
Kerry Best % - Curtis Twp 51.73%
Bush ran 2% higher here than in 2000. This area slightly leans GOP in statewide races (I suspect more democrat locally). Harrisville City leans slightly dem, but Bush only lost by 1 vote. The township was his best area. This is between Tawas City(Iosco) and Alpena on Lake Huron.
Bush 5454 50.52%, won by 239
Kerry 5215 48.30%
Bush Best votes West Branch Twp by 220
Bush Best % - Rose City 62.65%
Kerry Best votes Mills Twp by 267
Kerry Best % - Mills Twp 57.26%
Granholm and Gore both won Ogemaw County narrowly on the strength of Mills Twp. In 2000, Gore won Mills Twp by 400. It has a 21% poverty rate which is a large reason for its dem strength. The other townships voted heavily this time, and Kerry didnt sell in Mills. West Branch is the center of the county and tilts GOP. Inland county between Roscommon and Twas City.
Bush 7301 52.13%, won by 744
Kerry 6557 46.82%
Bush Best votes East Tawas City by 258
Bush Best % - East Tawas city 58.31%
Kerry Best votes Plainfield Twp by 46
Kerry Best % - Whittemore City 56.50%
Another Gore and Granholm county won by Bush. East Tawas went in a big way for Bush. This County is between Standish(Arenac) and Harrisville(Alcona) on Lake Huron.
Bush 7364 51.28%, won by 554
Kerry 6810 47.43%
Bush Best votes Gerrish twp by 219
Bush Best % - Backus twp 55.85%
Kerry Best votes Richfield Twp by 239
Kerry Best % - Richfield Twp 54.75% here
Bush lost it in 00, but Posthumus won it in 02. This one is ours, and should be every time as far as Im concerned. Inland County west of West Branch and just South of Grayling. This is a prime outdoors county with hunting and Higgins and Houghton Lakes. Richfield Twp is the big problem here, but wasnt as bad this year.
Bush 104275 votes 58.50%
Kerry - 71948 votes 40.36%
Bush by 32327
Bush ran about 1% higher here than he did in 2000, and about 1% higher than Posthumus did as well. This area has more money than the NE lower and the UP. Its also rural and has the same social conservatism as the rest of the northlands and is a major part of the GOP base. Bush won this area by 26,000 votes. Many of these areas are growing rapidly, and hunting, skiing, snowmobiling, and golfing is huge there. Sprawl is an issue here that could hurt. A lot of NIMBYs and some greens. A pro-life, anti-tax, pro-gun platform runs well. The best thing that could happen here though a snow free election day. This is Gods country there.
Bush 10332 votes 59.48%, won by 3486
Kerry 6846 votes 39.41%
Bush Best votes Bear Creek Twp by 731
Bush Best % - West Traverse Twp 66.76%
Kerry best votes lost Center Twp by 9
Kerry best % - Center Twp 47.78%
Kerry was swept here. This is a solid GOP area. Bush ran 1% higher here than in 2000, but Posthumus ran 2% ahead of Bush here. Petoskey and Harbor Springs are resort towns here. This county is on Lake Michigan running from Little Traverse Bay up to the Mackinac Bridge. A lot of vacation homes on the coast and a lot of hunting lands inland.
Bush 8214 58.09%, won by 2485
Kerry 5729 40.52%
Bush Best Votes Eveline Twp and Marion Twp by 260 Bush Best % - Eveline Twp 63.44% Kerry Best Votes St. James Twp by 32 Kerry Best % - St James Twp 56.70%
Another Solid GOP area. Covers Boyne Falls and Boyne City inland, and Charlevoix over on the Lake Michigan Coast. A mix of rural areas and vacation towns. Bush ran 2% higher here than in 2000, and ran about even with Posthumus.
Bush 8379 61.52%, won by 3307
Kerry 5072 37.24%
Bush Best Votes Elk Rapids Township, won by 394
Bush Best % - Custer Twp 67.68% Kerry was swept
I believe this is the new home of Michael Moore.(Either Antrim or Emmet County) . Its one of those two counties and it is right on Lake Michigan and is in the 7 digit price range. Its not a working class home. Wherever he lives, he could not deliver his county for Johnny. Bush ran 2% higher than he did in 2000, and 3% higher than Posthumus did in 02. This area covers Mancelona and Bellaire inland, and Elk Rapids near Traverse City over on the Lake Michigan Coast.
Bush 7470 60.70%, won by 2796
Kerry 4674 - 37.98%
Bush Best Votes Bagley Twp by 769
Bush Best % - Hayes Twp 64.15%
Kerry best votes lost Dover Twp by 62
Kerry best % - Corwith twp - 44.13%
Kerry was swept here. This inland and mostly rural county covers Waters and Gaylord. Its between Atlanta(Montmorency) and Mancelona(Antrim). Solidly GOP area and tied to the Petroleum industry, as well as tourism from outdoors activities. I also hunt near Waters. A lot of retirement homes are cropping up here.
Bush 4017 - 55.52%, won by 891
Kerry 3126 43.21%
Bush Best Votes Grayling Twp by 471
Bush Best % - Maple Forest Twp 57.46%
Kerry best votes lost Lovells Twp by 32
Kerry best % - South Branch Twp 47.83%
Kerry was swept here. This rural and inland county covers the Grayling area. Its between Kalkaska and Mio(Oscoda) and between Gaylord/Waters(Otsego) and Roscommon. Its a marginal GOP county where Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers, and 4% ahead of Posthumus. Much of this has to do with the troops. Camp Grayling is a National Guard Base. This is also a major hunting and fishing area and is culturally conservative. My family has a cottage on the Au Sable River so I am very familiar with this area. Its Gods country.
Bush 5084 60.67%, won by 1895
Kerry 3189 38.05%
Bush Best Votes Kalkaska Twp by 516
Bush Best % - Orange Twp 70.40% Kerry best votes Lost Bear Lake Twp by 51.
Kerry best % - Bear Lake Twp 43.39%
Kerry was swept here. Solid GOP inland rural county between Grayling (Crawford) and Traverse City and between Mancelona (Antrim) and Cadillac (Wexford). Bush ran 4% ahead of Posthumus and 4% ahead of his 2000 numbers here.
Grand Traverse County
Bush 27446 59.42%, won by 9190
Kerry 18256 39.52%
Bush Best Votes Garfield Twp by 1718
Bush Best % - Whitewater Twp 67.86%
Kerry Best Votes Traverse City by 259
Kerry Best % - Traverse City 50.92%
Bush lost Traverse City which he won in 2000, but ran 1% ahead of his 2000 number based on the Township strengths. He ran 3% ahead of Posthumus, despite having to deal with that RINO tax rasing, gun grabbing, pro-abort, jobs losing Bill Milliken. Milliken is a former governor from here, and is only a Republican because he had to be to win here. This is the GOP stronghold of North Michigan, and is most known for the National Cherry Festival, as well as Grand Traverse Bay.
Bush 7733 55.57%, won by 1685
Kerry 6048 43.46%
Bush Best Votes Elmwood Township by 587
Bush Best % - Leland Twp 60.70%
Kerry Best Votes Empire Twp by 39
Kerry Best % - Empire Twp 51.56%
Bush ran 2% behind his 2000 numbers here and ran even with Posthumus. This is the home of Michigans wine country, and also the home of Sleeping Bear Dunes. NW of Traverse City on a Peninsula.
Bush 5284 54.04%, won by 901
Kerry 4383 44.83%
Bush Best Votes Almira Twp by 406
Bush Best % - Weldon Twp 62.94%
Kerry Best Votes Gilmore Twp by 69
Kerry Best % - Gilmore Twp 56.96%
Bush ran 2% ahead of Posthumus and also 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers here due to some inroads made in Democrat Frankfort. Granholm won Frankfort with 59%. Mostly rural county on Lake Michigan west of Traverse City.
Bush 6295 49.41%, won by 23
Kerry 6272 49.23%
Bush Best Votes Pleasanton Twp by 148
Bush Best % - Pleasanton Twp 65.00%
Kerry Best Votes Manistee City by 278
Kerry Best % - Filer Twp 55.05%
Bush lost Manistee County in 2000. Posthumus won it by 12 votes in 2002. Its a swing county between Ludington and Frankfort on Lake Michigan.
Bush 8966 59.14%, won by 2932
Kerry 6034 39.80%
Bush Best Votes Cadillac City by 583
Bush Best % - Colfax Twp 65.21% Kerry best votes Lost Slagle twp by 14
Kerry best % - Slagle Twp 46.64%
Kerry was swept here. Solid GOP area West of Lake City (Missuakee) and South of Kalkaska. Bush ran 3% of his 2000 numbers here and 3% ahead of Posthumus numbers.
Bush 5055 68.12%, won by 2736
Kerry 2319 31.25%
Bush Best Votes Richland Twp by 535
Bush Best % - Richland Twp 84.73% Kerry Best Votes Holland Twp by 1
Kerry Best % - Holland Twp 50.00%
The 2nd most GOP county in the state year after year. Largely settled by Dutch and German farmers. Between Roscommon and Cadillac(Wexford).
Bush 191684 votes 43.73%
Kerry - 243027 votes 55.44%
Kerry by 51343
This is a major unionized area and staunchly democrat. Bush did run 2-3% higher here than he did in 2000, and he ran even with Posthumus in 2002. The only Republican Stronghold here is Midland, and Gladwin and Arenac have some ticketsplitters. The rest of the area is solid democrat.
Bush 4071 49.55%
Kerry 4076 49.61%, won by 5 Bush Best Votes Sims Township by 101
Bush Best % - Adams Twp 61.55%
Kerry Best Votes Deep River Twp by 145
Kerry Best % - Omer City 56.34%
Arenac County went for Gore and Granholm with 51% both times, so this is an improvement. Its on the coast of Saginaw Bay between Bay City and West Branch. There are a lot of John Dingell and Jim Barcia type democrats here who are socially conservative.
Bush 6770 votes 51.18%, won by 427
Kerry 6343 47.95%
Bush Best Votes Sage Twp by 225
Bush Best % - Grout Twp 59.22%
Kerry Best Votes Billings Twp by 176
Kerry Best % - Grim Twp 59.80%
Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers and 1% ahead of Posthumus here. Leans dem on the local level, but has gone GOP at the top now in every election since 96. A lot of union members and corrections officers here. Between Standish (Arenac) and Clare.
Bush 24369 votes 56.31%, won by 6014
Kerry 18355 42.41%
Bush Best Votes Midland City by 3185
Bush Best % - Larkin twp 66.84%
Kerry Best Votes Mills Twp by 16
Kerry Best % - Mills Twp 50.00%
A near sweep for Bush here. He ran even with his 200 numbers and slightly below Posthumus in 2002. Midland is between Mt Pleasant (Isabella) and Bay City. Dow Chemical is the major employer here.
Bush 25439 votes 44.60%
Kerry 31032 votes 54.41%, won by 5593
Bush Best Votes Frankenlust twp by 474
Bush Best % - Frankenlust twp 62.55%
Kerry Best Votes Bay City by 4445
Kerry Best % - Midland City 73.68%(one tiny precinct), Bay City 62.83%
Bay City is a GM UAW stronghold and probably the most democrat of the white non dominated cities without a university (I believe Bay City is still almost 90% white). Why it is democrat amazes me since it is a pro-life and pro-gun area. The Midland precinct there is an aberration that had only 38 voters. Posthumus got 64% in that same precinct. Kerrys best percentage outside of that was Bay City. Saginaw County is less Dem than Bay, but has a much higher minority population. Kerry ran 1% lower than Gore in 2000, but 1% higher than Granholm (who ran poorly among union members).
Bush 47165 45.86%
Kerry 54887 53.37%, won by 7722
Bush Best Votes Saginaw Twp by 1577
Bush Best % - Frankenmuth City 75.90%
Kerry Best Votes Saginaw City by 11192
Kerry Best % - Buena Vista Twp 82.49%
Saginaw is another GM UAW county. It is also a very regional county. Western Saginaw is more rural and leans Republican. The Western and NW suburbs (Saginaw Twp, Tittabawassee, Thomas) are also republican. The city itself is 50% black and went 75% for Kerry. Buena Vista Twp and Bridgeport also have very large minority populations.
Did I mention that you should visit Frankenmuth? Well, it is a solid red island in a blue county. They do not have many voters there, but they really turned out the vote this year and did their best to keep Saginaw from going bluer. Frankenmuth Twp went 72.58% Republican and almost beat Saginaw Twp (53% GOP) in R/D difference despite having 1/3 of the voters.
Bush 83870 votes 39.23%
Kerry 128334 60.03%
Bush Best Votes Fenton Twp by 1749 Bush Best % - Atlas Twp 59.84% Kerry Best Votes Flint City by 30837
Kerry Best % - Flint City 83.07%
This used to be Buick City. Genesee County is always either the 2nd most or 3rd most democrat county in the state and is harder to win than Massachusetts. This year it is 3rd. This is the birthplace of the UAW. Bush actually did much better than he did in 2000 here, causing Kerry to run 3% behind Gore. This was largely due to Bush cutting his losses in the burbs, and actually winning Democrat leaning Flushing. He almost won Davison Twp and did respectable in Davison City. Michael Moore is from one of the Davisons. He stopped Kerry from getting 60% in Burton as well. Bush won Fenton, Linden and Grand Blanc heavily as well. He did the best he could do here. The problem was the heavily minority areas. Flint, Mt Morris, Genesee Twp, Flint Twp. They all voted. Genesee County is where I-75, I-69, and US-23. I-75 goes to Saginaw and Detroit. I-69 goes to Lapeer and Lansing. US-23 goes to Brighton and Ann Arbor. The best thing that could happen on Election Day here is a snowstorm.
Bush 59953 votes 53.77%
Kerry - 50563 votes 45.17%
Bush by 9590
Its hard where to classify these counties. Ive seen them as Mid Michigan, West Michigan and North Michigan. Bush did about the same as he did in 2000 and he equaled Posthumus numbers as well.
Bush 6599 58.98%, won by 2132
Kerry 4467 39.93%
Bush Best Votes Highland Twp by 270
Bush Best % - Highland Twp 74.59% Kerry best votes Lost Cedar Twp by 50
Kerry best % - Hersey Twp 46.01%
Kerry was swept here. Rural County between Big Rapids (Mecosta) and Cadillac (Wexford) on US 131. Centers around Reed city. Bush ran 1% ahead of his 2000 numbers here.
Bush 7088 49.82%, won by 104
Kerry 6984 49.09%
Bush Best Votes Grand Twp by 218
Bush Best % - Arthur Twp 73.24%
Kerry Best Votes Hayes Twp by 150
Kerry Best % - Summerfield Twp 58.01%
Bush picks up a county won by Granholm and Gore. Its a mostly rural county with a strong outdoors heritage, but also has a high poverty rate. Known at the Gateway to the North and is where US 10 and US 27 meet. Between Roscommon and Mt Pleasant (Isabella).
Bush 9710 55.13%, won by 1980
Kerry 7730 43.97%
Bush Best Votes Morton Twp by 456
Bush Best % - Hinton Twp 64.29%
Kerry Best Votes City of Big Rapids by 252
Kerry Best % - City of Big Rapids 54.02%
Bush ran about the same here as in 2000. He lost ground in Big Rapids, which is a college town (Ferris State University), but improved in other areas like Morton twp. US 131 and M66 meet M-20 here. Big Rapids is the main city in this county which is west of Mt Pleasant.
Bush 11754 48.19%
Kerry 12334 50.57%, won by 580
Bush Best Votes Nottawa Twp by 130
Bush Best % - City of Clare 65.00% (one precinct), Fremont Twp 59.34% Kerry Best Votes Mount Pleasant City by 1261
Kerry Best % - Mount Pleasant City 58.56%
Central Michigan University, more than usual, tilted this county to the democrats at the top of the ticket. Went for Gore and Granholm with 49% Kerry improved on that by 1%, mostly likely due to turnout. US-27 and M-20. Between Big Rapids (Mecosta) and Midland.
Bush 9834 votes 56.59%, won by 2457
Kerry 7377 42.45%
Bush Best Votes Wheeler Twp by 286
Bush Best % - North Shade Twp 70.36%
Kerry best votes Lost New Haven Twp by 9.
Kerry best % - Alma City 49.27%
Kerry was swept here. Bush ran 1% higher here than that time. Rural and small town county with Alma and St Louis. Between St Johns (Clinton) and Mt Pleasant (Isabella) on US-27.
Bush 14968 votes 55.99%, won by 3497
Kerry 11471 42.91%
Bush Best Votes Pierson and Reynolds Townships by 411
Bush Best % - Bloomer Twp 67.79%
Kerry Best Votes City of Greenville by 115
Kerry Best % - Belvidere Twp 52.68%
I am surprised Bush did slightly better here than in 2000. He lost ground in Greenville, but made it up elsewhere. Greenville is most known here for the Electrolux plant closing. Electrolux was the largest employer in the area. Outsourcing was a major issue, and Bush kept Kerry down to 51%. Greenville took it out on Congressman Dave Camp instead. Camp (who won everywhere else) lost Greenville by 600 votes. Montcalm County is west of Gratiot County and SW of Mt Pleasant.
Bush 542904 votes 57.56%
Kerry - 391234 votes 41.48%
Bush by 151670
The GOPs main base is in West Michigan. Bush ran similar to his 2000 numbers here, and ran about even with Posthumus.
Bush 2502 votes 47.70%
Kerry 2675 votes 51.00%, won by 173
Bush Best Votes Chase Township by 126
Bush Best % - Sweetwater Twp 61.11%
Kerry Best Votes Yates Twp by 196
Kerry Best % - Yates Twp 79.20%
If you look at the CORRECT Red/Blue map(theres two maps, one has 3 counties wrong), you will find one isolated blue county in a see of red. Thats this one. Lake County has the highest poverty percentage in the state and also has a sizable black population. Idlewild was intended as a resort community for blacks during the days of segregation. It dwindled since the rise of the civil rights movement. Kerry ran 4% behind Gore here, most likely due to a higher white turnout. Lake County is between Ludington(Mason) and Reed City(Osceola).
Bush 8124 55.60%, won by 1791
Kerry 6333 43.34%
Bush Best Votes - Hamlin Twp by 407
Bush Best % - Riverton Twp 61.75%
Kerry Best Votes Free Soil Twp by 64
Kerry Best % - Free Soil Twp 55.80%
Bush ran 2% ahead of Posthumus and 1% of his 2000 numbers here. Ludington is the major city in Mason County. On the Lake Michigan Coast between Manistee and Hart (Oceana)
Bush 6677 54.30%, won by 1236
Kerry 5441 44.25%
Bush Best Votes Shelby Twp by 288
Bush Best % - Hart Township 60.15%
Kerry Best Votes Newfield Twp by 133
Kerry Best % - Newfield Twp 55.18%
Bush ran 1% lower than his 2000 numbers here and much of that has to do with Newfield Twp. He ran slightly ahead of Posthumus here. On the Lake Michigan Coast between Muskegon and Ludington (Mason).
Bush 13608 59.49%, won by 4551
Kerry 9057 39.60%
Bush Best Votes Fremont City by 609
Bush Best % - Adams Twp 68.88%
Kerry Best Votes Merill Twp by 94
Kerry Best % - Merill Twp 65.35%
Bush ran 1% ahead of on his 2000 numbers here, and 1% ahead of Posthumus 2002 numbers. Newaygo County is a large county north of Grand Rapids.
Bush 35302 43.96%
Kerry 44282 55.14%, won by 8980
Bush Best Votes Norton Shores City by 926
Bush Best % - Raveena Twp 64.33%
Kerry Best Votes Muskegon City by 6134
Kerry Best % - Muskegon Heights City 92.24%
Kerry ran 1% less than Granholm did here, and about the same as Gore. This is the democrat stronghold in West Michigan due to unions and minorities. Muskegon (71.25% Kerry) is heavily black, and Muskegon Heights is 90% black. Norton Shores is the 2nd largest city and went marginally for Bush.
Bush 171201 58.85%, won by 54292
Kerry 116909 40.19%
Bush Best Votes Wyoming City by 6545
Bush Best % - Byron Twp 77.71%
Kerry Best Votes City of Grand Rapids by 9679
Kerry Best % - City of Grand Rapids 55.30%
Bush underperformed here. He got 59% last time and Posthumus got 60%. Bush did very well in the suburbs of Grand Rapids but got trounced there. Granholm got 50.30% there, and Gore won it by under 3000 votes. Grand Rapids has a large minority population, and also has more and more Bohemian types there, as well as an activist leftist group. It is still not as democrat as most major cities of about 200,000 people though. That said, the county wont be going democrat anytime soon. Bush got over 55% in all but one of the burbs and townships, and broke 70% in 7 municipalities.
Ionia County Bush 16621 60.14%
Kerry 10674 38.61%
Bush Best Votes Boston Twp by 870
Bush Best % - Campbell Twp 74.66%
Kerry Best Votes North Plains Twp by 25
Kerry Best % - North Plains Twp 51.08%
This was a near sweep. Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers, and 5% ahead of Posthumus 2002 numbers. The corrections workers at the prison didnt vote for Kerry like they did for Granholm. Boston didnt vote like Boston, MA either. Ionia is between Grand Rapids(Kent) and Lansing(Ingham).
Bush 92048 71.55%, won by 56496
Kerry 35552 27.64%
Bush Best Votes Georgetown Township by 15110
Bush Best % - Jamestown Twp 88.47%
Kerry Best Votes lost Ferrysburg City by 331
Kerry Best % - Grand Haven City 45.46%
Kerry was swept. When Kerrys best vote difference is in a city he got 40.29% in, thats bad. He lost Grand Haven by 8% as well. Bush equaled his 2000 and Posthumus 2002 numbers here. This is the most GOP county in the state and is the center of Michigans Dutch settlements. The Grand Rapids burbs are in the NE, Holland in the South, and Grand Haven/Spring Lake in the North.
Bush 18638 61.57%, won by 7326
Kerry 11312 37.37%
Bush Best Votes Thornapple Twp by 1604
Bush Best % - Irving Twp 71.04%
Kerry Best Votes lost Prairieville Twp by 121
Kerry Best % - Prairieville Twp 46.15%
Kerry was swept here too. Bush ran 1% higher than in 2000 and 2% higher than Posthumus did. Its between Lansing and Kalamazoo, and between Jackson and Grand Rapids.
Bush 34022 63.11%, won by 14667
Kerry 19355 35.90%
Bush Best Votes Laketown Twp by 1750
Bush Best % - Overisel Twp 89.27%
Kerry Best Votes Lee Township by 117
Kerry Best % - Saugatuck City 54.79%
Saugatuck is known for gays, so its no surprise Kerry won there. Still, Allegan is one of the top 5 GOP counties year after year, along with Ottawa, Livingston, Hillsdale, and Missaukee. Allegan is on the Lake Michigan Coast between Ottawa and Van Buren Counties.
Bush 57147 47.71%
Kerry 61462 51.31%, won by 4315
Bush Best Votes Texas Twp by 1590
Bush Best % - Prairie Ronde Twp 64.78%
Kerry Best Votes City of Kalamazoo by 9999
Kerry Best % - Kalamazoo City 66.61%
Once again, the University Towns go above and beyond for Hanoi John. Kalamazoo City is the home of Western Michigan University. It also has a large black population in its north end. Bush did do better than Posthumus did here, but it wasnt enough to win. Kerry went 2% higher than Gore did here.
Van Buren County
Bush 17634 51.60%, won by 1483
Kerry 16151 47.26%
Bush Best Votes Antwerp Twp by 373
Bush Best % - Hartford Twp 60.80%
Kerry Best Votes Covert Twp by 443
Kerry Best % - Covert Twp 71.46%
Bush ran 1% higher than his 2000 numbers. Covert has a large black population so it makes an otherwise marginal GOP county competitive. Between Kalamazoo/Allegan Counties and Berrien County on the Lake Michigan Coast.
Bush 41076 55.01%, won by 8230
Kerry 32846 43.99%
Bush Best Votes Lincoln Twp by 3172
Bush Best % - Royalton Twp 71.54%
Kerry Best Votes City of Benton Harbor by 3439
Kerry Best % - City of Benton Harbor 95.29%
The SW corner of the state on Lake Michigan. Posthumus ran 2% ahead of Bush in both 00 and 04. Thats because of the Benton Harbor Turnout. This would be a 60%+ county otherwise. Benton Harbor is 90% black, and Benton Twp is about 65% black and went 69.89% for Hanoi John. The only other area to sometimes go dem is the city of Niles. The rest is solid GOP.
Bush 12964 57.12%, won by 3427
Kerry 9537 42.02%
Bush Best Votes Ontwa Twp by 809
Bush Best % - Ontwa Twp 64.55%
Kerry Best Votes Dowagiac City by 256
Kerry Best % - Dowagiac City 55.39%
Bush won all except LaGrange and Dowagiac which are strongly dem. The rest of the county leans or is solid GOP. Bush ran 4% higher than 2000 here. Dowagiac is the major city here and is between Niles (Berrien) and Sturgis (St. Joseph)
St Joseph County
Bush 15340 60.78%, won by 5692
Kerry 9648 38.23%
Bush Best Votes Sturgis City by 989
Bush Best % - Florence Twp 71.11%
Kerry Best Votes Three Rivers City by 73
Kerry Best % - Three Rivers City 50.47%
Solid GOP County between Coldwater(Branch) and Dowagiac on the Indiana Border. Three Rivers is the only dem leaning area in the county. The rest is solid GOP. Bush ran 1% ahead of his 2000 numbers here.
South Central/Capital City
Bush 247299 votes 51.21%
Kerry - 230482 votes 47.73%
Bush by 16817
This area went for Gore by 4128 and Granholm by 15,700 votes to this is a pickup for Bush.
Bush 19407 52.95%, won by 2526
Kerry 16881- 46.06%
Bush Best Votes Bennington Twp by 394
Bush Best % - Antrim Twp 60.82%
Kerry Best Votes City of Owossso by 187
Kerry Best % - City of Durand 53.33%
Shiawassee County is between Lansing and Flint on I-69. I think Shiawassee is finally going to our column with the exurban growth. It still has some democrat tradition at local levels, but we took the open state representative spot here, after term limits. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers here, and 1% ahead of Posthumus here. The western part of the county is mostly Lansing commuters, and the eastern part of the county is mostly Flint Commuters. Owosso is the major city, and Durand is the most democrat part of the city with the UAW commuters.
Bush 21989 58.16%, won by 6506
Kerry 15483 40.95%
Bush Best Votes Dallas Twp by 723
Bush Best % - Dallas Twp 78.79%
Kerry Best Votes City of East Lansing by 99
Kerry Best % - City of East Lansing 63.00%
Clinton County went big for Bush. Bush ran 5% ahead of Posthumus here and 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers. The state workers who are republican came back home for Bush after backing Granholm. Clinton County is rural on the north end and has Lansing suburbs on the south end. Granholm won DeWitt by 270. Bush won it by 792. East Lansing gets the dubious distinction of being the most democrat part of two different counties by percentage. Guns are a major issue in this county as it was for concealed carry before the shall issue law. Theres only one precinct of the county there, but that may change with the annexation and number of MSU students moving to apartments in the southern part of Bath Twp, which Kerry won by 3 votes.
Bush 29781 53.41%, won by 4370
Kerry 25411 45.58%
Bush Best Votes Eaton Twp by 597
Bush Best % - Sunfield Twp 63.23%
Kerry Best Votes City of Lansing by 1136
Kerry Best % - City of Lansing 78.33%
Eaton County is a fast growing county to the West of Lansing. Eaton was a big win for Bush since its been treading more and more dem. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers and ran 6% ahead of Posthumus here, due to the GOP state workers switching back to Bush after backing Granholm(who won Eaton). Bush again won Delta Twp which was a little surprising. He also won Eaton Rapids, which is a tough area to win. The rural parts went heavily GOP, offsetting Lansing. The only spot he lost was the part of Lansing in Eaton which isnt the best part of the city. Lansing gets the dubious distinction of being the leading vote difference for Johnny in two different counties.
Bush 54734 41.15%
Kerry 57.78%, won by 22143
Bush Best Votes Delhi Twp by 726
Bush Best % - Locke Twp 63.97%
Kerry Best Votes City of Lansing by 16001
Kerry Best % - City of East Lansing 70.16%
This is the 4th most democrat county in the state. Considering the butt kicking Bush got in suburban Okemos as well as the normal losses in Lansing and East Lansing, this could have been even worse. Bush ran even with his 2000 numbers, and ran 4% ahead of Posthumus in 2002. Bush did very well actually in most of the county and won all but four areas. He won Delhi Twp and Mason which he lost in 2000. The only area he did worse was Meridian Twp which he lost closely in 2000. This time he lost it by 2789. Meridian Twp is Okemos. Haslett and has a lot of soccer moms, some MSU students, rich liberals, MSU faculty, and professionals. Lansings a GM town, the state capital, and also has some MSU students and faculty. It has a fairly large minority population as well. East Lansing is the home of MSU and also has a lot of Lansing commuters. Lansing (65.86% dem) and East Lansing are a 1-2 punch almost impossible to beat.
Bush 40029 55.75%, won by 9004
Kerry 31025 43.21%
Bush Best Votes Summit Twp by 2315
Bush Best % - Spring Arbor Twp 70.77%
Kerry Best Votes City of Jackson by 1885
Kerry Best % - City of Jackson 56.97%
Bush swept everything outside of Jackson City. Outside of the city and two townships next to it, Jackson leans Republican. Summit and Spring Arbor are staunchly GOP. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers and 4% ahead of Posthumus.
Bush 32093 51.21%, won by 2202
Kerry 29891 47.70%
Bush Best Votes Pennfield twp by 711
Bush Best % - Eckford Twp 63.80%
Kerry Best Votes City of Albion by 1278
Kerry Best % - City of Albion 70.11%
Bush picked up this county west of Jackson, which he lost in 2000. It went for Granholm as well. Bush cut his losses by 500 in Battle Creek where he held Kerry to 52%. Albion is heavily minority and solidly democrat.
Bush 10787 60.03%, won by 3783
Kerry 7004 38.98%
Bush Best Votes City of Coldwater by 524
Bush Best % - Noble Twp 72.07%
Kerry Best Votes Lost California Twp by 77
Kerry Best % - Sherwood Twp 44.25%
This was a clean sweep. Kerry lost by 10% or more in every city of township here. Branch County is between Marshall/Battle Creek and Fort Wayne, Indiana. Bush ran 5% ahead of his 2000 numbers here and 6% ahead of Posthumus.
Bush 12804 63.34%, won by 5681
Kerry 7123 35.23%
Bush Best Votes Hillsdale City by 688
Bush Best % - Adams Twp 72.70%
Kerry Best Votes Lost Reading City by 79
Kerry Best % - Somerset Twp 42.69%
Hillsdale was not friendly to Kerry at all. He only broke 40% in one township, and he lost that one by 341 votes. Hillsdale was 3rd in percentage for Bush in the state. Bush ran 3% higher than he did in 2000. Hillsdale is most well known for one of the most conservative universities in the state. Its between Coldwater (Branch) and Adrian (Lenawee) on the Southern Border)
Bush 25675 54.61%, won by 4888
Kerry 20787 44.22%
Bush Best Votes Adrian Twp by 690
Bush Best % - Odgen Twp 64.25%
Kerry Best Votes City of Adrian by 701
Kerry Best % - City of Adrian 53.89%
Bush did very well in Lenawee, which voted, for a democrat state rep for the fourth straight time. Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers and 3% ahead of Posthumus here. Lenawee is a blue collar social conservative county. The City of Adrian tilts heavily democrat, Tecumseh swings, and the rest of the county, including Adrian Twp, is conservative. Between Monroe and Hillsdale.
Bush 105988 votes 55.65%
Kerry - 82403 votes 43.27%
Bush by 23585
The thumb is a very conservative and rural area, although not always republican. Theres a strong limited government and independent streak there. Posthumus ran 1% ahead of Bush there, largely due to his farming roots. Bush ran 3% ahead of his 200 numbers here.
Huron County Bush 9671 55.37%, won by 2042
Kerry 7629 43.68%
Bush Best Votes Winsor Twp by 324
Bush Best % - Winsor Twp 67.33%
Kerry Best Votes Meade Twp by 72
Kerry Best % - Meade Twp 59.20%
Bush ran even with his 2000 numbers, and Posthumus ran 4% higher here. Huron is the northernmost county in the thumb with Saginaw Bay on the West and Lake Huron in the East
Bush 13632 60.84%, won by 4749
Kerry 7883 37.97%
Bush Best Votes Marlette Twp by 378
Bush Best % - Custer Twp 73.32%
Kerry Best Votes Croswell City by 3
Kerry Best % - Croswell City 49.22%
A near sweep for Bush. He won everywhere outside of Croswell. He ran 1% ahead of his 2000 numbers here. Alongside Lake Huron.
Bush 15389 54.31%, won by 2758
Kerry 12631 44.57%
Bush Best Votes Denmark Twp by 584
Bush Best % - Denmark Twp 65.75%
Kerry Best Votes Indianfields twp by 60
Kerry Best % - Arbela Twp 51.04%
Tuscola is a very independent county east of Saginaw and Bay City. Theres more of a union presence here than elsewhere due to commuters. Bush ran even with his 2000 numbers and ran 2% under Posthumus here. Dems have won here in the past, although its been GOP for statewide top of the ticket races here since 96.
Bush 25556 57.89%, won by 7470
Kerry 18086 40.97%
Bush Best Votes Dryden twp by 789
Bush Best % - Burnside Twp 68.39%
Kerry Best Votes Marathon Twp by 277
Kerry Best % - Marathon Tap 55.05%
Lapeer is starting to become an exurban county and also a base county for the GOP. Flint is to the West along I-69 and Suburban Oakland County is to the South. Bush ran 2% ahead of his 2000 numbers here, although Posthumus ran 1% higher. I believe Klinton won here in 96, so this is a good development here.
St Clair County Bush 42740 53.60%, won by 6566
Kerry 36174 45.36%
Bush Best Votes Clay Twp by 997
Bush Best % - Berlin Twp 65.05%
Kerry Best Votes City of Port Huron by 1497
Kerry Best % - City of Port Huron 55.51%
Bush ran very well here. He had 49% and won by 500 votes back in 2000. He ran 1% ahead of Posthumus as well. Bush won everywhere outside of Port Huron city and township. He even won Marysville and Kimball Twp which usually go democrat. St Clair County is one of most pro-2a areas in the state. Hopefully, this county will no longer be a swing county for us.
SE Michigan (Outside Detroit Area):
Bush 157785 votes 46.25%
Kerry - 180033 votes 52.77%
Kerry by 22248
Bush 58860 62.79%, won by 24869
Kerry 33991 36.26%
Bush Best votes Genoa Twp by 3473
Bush Best % - Iosco Twp 68.96%
Kerry Best votes Lost Brighton City by 463
Kerry Best % - Brighton City 43.81%
The democrats thought they were going to have a big year here in the fastest growing county in the state. The paper always says that the next election will be when the democrats take Livingston like they are doing to Oakland. Then theres an election day shocker. o the dems credit, they gained 5000 votes over 2000. However, we gained 10,000 more here than 2000 and Bush ran 3% ahead of his 2000 numbers. To add insult to injury, the two swing townships went 57% for Bush, and the marginal City of Brighton went 55% for Bush. This is a pro-life, pro-2nd amendment, anti-tax county, and John Kerry didnt sell here. Unfortunately, while we had a big year, so did the county just to the South of us.
Bush 61455 36.26%
Kerry 109953 63.46%
Bush Best votes Salem Twp by 800
Bush Best % Salem Twp 60.65%
Kerry Best votes City of Ann Arbor by 31964
Kerry Best % -City of Ypsilanti 77.99%
This is the home of Ann Arbor and it was a total disaster for us. Kerry ran 3 or 4% ahead of Gore in 2000 thanks to the University of Michigan and Eastern Michigan University in Ypsilanti. Massive turnout here killed us. Ann Arbor went 69.22% for Gore and 76.51% for Kerry. Ypsi went from 71.69% to 77.99%. Pittsfield Twp (Between A2 and Ypsi) went from 55% to 60%. Scio (Western Ann Arbor) from 53% to 59%. Ann Arbor Twp (North end) went from 54% to 62%. The amazing part in this Bush gained 9000 votes here from 2000. It is just a case of Kerrys people gaining 23000 for him. They did the same thing to us as we did to them in Livingston, but in spades.
Bush 776,549 votes 40.68%
Kerry 1,115,994 votes 58.44%
Kerry by 339045
Bush 202166 50.24%, won by 6006
Kerry 196160 48.75%
Bush Best votes Shelby Twp by 7469
Bush Best % - Lake Twp 68.75%
Kerry Best votes City of Warren by 7706
Kerry Best % - City of Eastpointe 61.87%
This is the home of the Reagan Democrats. Bush won Macomb, which he lost in 2000. He did run 1% below Posthumus though. He only lost Eastpointe and Mt Clemens by 20% or more unlike 2000. Clinton Twp and St Clair Shores were tough marginal losses which Posthumus won. He ran up big numbers in the northern areas of the county, and he didnt lose Warren by as much as he did in 2000. Bordered by Lake St Clair in the East, Dequindre on the West, 8 Mile on the South, and by the town of Memphis in the North.
Bush 316633 votes 49.32%
Kerry 319387 votes 49.75%, won by 2754
Bush Best votes City of Rochester Hills by 7162
Bush Best % - City of Lake Angelus 82.51%
Kerry Best votes City of Southfield by 26558
Kerry Best % - Royal Oak Twp 95.08%
Its another tough narrow loss in Oakland County, which has now gone democrat 4 of the last 5 times. (98 the exception). Kerry couldnt break 50% unlike Granholm, but still won it. Oaklands politics is heavily regional.
The North and West ends of the county are the most GOP. Novi (57.24%), Milford (61.92%), Orion (61.60%), Independence (63.50%), Oakland (62.63%), are much of the base. These are the exhurbs and fastest growing areas of the county. The Livingston County and Lapeer County Borders are the best areas. Generally, these are either West of I-275 or north of M-59.
SE end Oaklands Democrat Base. Below 13 or 14 mile and east of Telegraph, there are few republicans. Ferndale (67.87%) is known as the gay friendly area of Michigan. Royal Oak (54.57%) is liberal, although some republicans do win there. Southfield (81.78%) has a black majority, as does Oak Park (78.99%) and Royal Oak Township (95.08%), all of which border Detroit to the south. Pleasant Ridge (62.78%) is the home of the major zoo, and Huntington Woods (70.82%) is Gilda Jacobs country. Gilda is our states Dianne Feinstein. An election day snowstorm here would be nice.
Central to Central East Rochester Hills (58.81%) and Troy (56.52%) are solid GOP areas. Pontiac (79.21%) is a dem stronghold and a GM town. Auburn Hills (53.03%) leans dem with Diamler-Chrysler, but isnt solid dem. Tom McMillan won there several times. Hes ultra conservative and fights the RINOS as much as the dems. Waterford (54.20%) is a blue-collar marginal GOP area that the dems have been trying and failing to win for years. Birmingham (54.70%) is more liberal, but republican. West Bloomfield (55.34%) is majority Jewish and is going more and more democrat. They do sometimes ticket split. It went GOP for congress (Knollenberg) several times, but Gore won by 14% there, Granholm won by 19%, and Kerry won it by 11.35%. The other Bloomfields are more GOP. Farmington Hills (52.92%) has become very socially liberal and went for Kerry. Oakland is going to be tougher and tougher with Detroits migration to Southfield and Oak Park. A lot of the old 84 Reagans now moved to Livingston, Lapeer, and Macomb counties as well. Wayne County Bush 257750 29.81%
Kerry 600047 69.39%, won by 342297
Bush Best votes City of Livonia by 5478
Bush Best % - City of Grosse Pointe Farms 66.18%
Kerry Best votes City of Detroit by 285915
Kerry Best % - City of Highland Park 94.44%
In the end, the election always comes down to Wayne County and its turnout. When we get turnouts like this (legal or illegal), we dont win. Detroit lost 100,000 people since 2000, but it gained voters? That doesnt sound right. Wayne County has four areas.
Detroit (93.65%) is the brick wall all Republicans need to get by. If Detroit GOTV, we lose. Bush twice got 5% there, as did Posthumus. Detroit is the most democrat big city (over 100,000 people) in the entire country. That includes Berkeley, Oakland CA, San Francisco, Washington DC, Baltimore, Chicago, and any Borough of New York City. If Detroit does not turn out, we win if we turn out.
Grosse Points Solid GOP Bush won four of the five Grosse Pointes.(Township, GP, GP Farms, GP Woods) He lost GP Park narrowly which is closest to Downtown Detroit. I am assuming the Township is GP Shores, which was not listed on the Secretary of State site.
South Wayne/Downriver Traditionally social conservative but Democrat and union, Unfortunately, Bush ran behind Posthumus here. Posthumus won Allen Park ,Gibralter, Huron Twp, and Grosse Ile. Bush won Grosse Ile and Dearborn the first time. This time, he won Huron Twp (50.77%) and Grosse Ile(62.58%), losing Allen Park (52.11%) and Gibralter (51.40%). He was pounded in Dearborn this time. Kerry won it with 58.55%. It was an improvement over 2000 though outside of Dearborn. Gore won Lincoln Park, Melvindale, Southgate, Taylor, Wayne, and Wyandotte all with over 60%. Granholm failed to get 60% in any of them. Kerry failed to get 60% in Southgate, Taylor and Wyandotte. Romulus, Ecorse, River Rouge, Inkster all went 72%+ for Kerry with their large black populations, the latter three breaking 80%.
West Wayne This is more GOP friendly than the rest of the county. Bush ran ahead of Posthumus in most of the area since Granholm was from here. Bush narrowly won Plymouth Township (49.49%) and won Northville (61.22%) and Plymouth Townships (57.87%) big. The dems win big again in Westland (57.87%). Livonia was 54% GOP once again. Redford (57.44%) and Dearborn Heights (56.29%) were big wins for the democrats. They were close in the last two elections. I posted my first report and my second report at those two threads so I you can see me eat my words in a way. I thought Bush was going to win MI based on the exurbs, Kerrys poor candidacy, third party voting, and due to Detroits declining population. I was right on the exurbs, but wrong on Detroit and overestimated the third party vote. I was right on the race being within 5%. I also underestimated the poor showing at university towns. I expected bad showings, but not like what happened in Ann Arbor. I expected about the same as Granholm there. 2006 and 2008 will be interesting here. Granholm (51%) and Stabenow (49%) are up for re-election. Granholm raised taxes and Stabenow hasnt done jack in her time there. The odds there depend on who runs. In 2008, an outsider away from Washington would have the best shot at winning here. Most of the Kerry vote was strictly anti-Bush. What needs to happen here most of all though is to stop the voter fraud. I think it beat us at least twice, if not three times.
Awww Man Dan,
I just bought a book today... Now I have this? Looks like "Your Best Life Now" is gonna have to wait until I blow through this baby.... :)
All the official results are out by precinct now.
So did Bush carry the Knollenberg district?
This analysis is good as far as it goes, but for me it really isn't detailed enough. <\sarcasm>
I cannot understand why the UP is not overwhelmingly republican.
Liberal spouse and I just enjoy our trips to Bay Mills (Casino). They just shaded it for Senator Kerry. No wonder.
Always a shameless booster for Newberry, Michigan myself. Memories, memories. Luce County absolutely solid for GWB. The big State hospital, which I visited many moons ago, now gone. A medium security prison in it's place. Just in case any Freepers who just might like GWB (laughs) are in the UP, they might stop in at the historic Falls Hotel. Cheers.
The MIGOP wasted its time with "ballot integrity" programs in Detroit while the unions and MoveOn blew us away in the suburbs. Our best people were stuck eating donuts in polling locations in Detroit on election day and not doing GOTV. The MIGOP had too many lawyers running the campaign so they could get appointed judges someday.
Most of the folks up there are on some form of public assistance.
I haven't been to Newberry yet. I've been to Tahquanemon nearby though. Beautiful area.
Bush Kerry 180,630 174,030 50.46% 48.62%
MI is going the way of NJ -
MI is going the way of NJ -
Since Engler left I have been saying that MI has become the Vermont of the Midwest. I like the NJ analogy, though.
Wayne County is like their Cook County.
Dude - MI is so liberal, it makes FEWFC look conservative!
The job situation in MI is killing the GOP. If unemployment isn't so high, Bush might have solidly won MI.
Nice to know it still is. But I'll bet it's nothing like the stronghold that once voted 99% for AuH2O.
I have an AuH20 lapel pin in my desk. That's a blast from the past! The problem in Michigan right now is that there's no Republican here with the cajones to take on the most Gorgeous Governor in the World (fully poseable Jennie Granholm).
Isn't FEWFC represented by Jim Moran????!!!
Yeah...and you have the liberal skank!
Thanks for the post/information Dan. Outstanding!
The big problem for Republicans there is Southfield, Oak Park, and Pontiac. A lot of the black flight from Detroit is going there.
Not that liberal. Not counting Wayne County--Detroit--the rest of Michigan went for Bush by about 176,000 votes. The Kerry margin of 342,000 votes in Wayne County gave him a state-wide win of 166,000. As Dan pointed out, Michigan and Detroit have a very similar vote pattern to Illinois and Chicago in which the big city democrat machinery churns out enough votes to off-set whatever the rest of the state does.
Dan, very, very well done. A great effort and wonderful analysis. Bookmarked in my favorites.
Excellent work, Dan! Thank you.