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Electoral College Analysis: America Gets Redder
The National Ledger ^ | February 26, 2005 | CK Rairden

Posted on 02/26/2005 3:42:25 PM PST by Coastal

A projection by Polidata, a Republican-oriented political mapping and redistricting firm, shows population trends will make Republican-dominated "Red" states more influential in winning presidential elections and determining control of Congress after the 2010 census.

The new study forecasts that "Red" states will pick up a net six electoral votes, with Florida and Texas gaining three each. The "Blue" states carried by John Kerry, according to Polidata, will lose a net six electoral votes, led by New York's loss of two.

Under this distribution of electoral votes, George W. Bush could have been elected last November without carrying Ohio.

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalledger.com ...


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: bushcountry; elections; electoralcollege; howarddean; redstates; robertnovak

1 posted on 02/26/2005 3:42:26 PM PST by Coastal
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To: Coastal

Florida doesn't count, I don't view it as a red-state. It's essentially a toss-up state. The Texas gain and New York loss though will make some folks cry though.


2 posted on 02/26/2005 3:44:11 PM PST by Arkinsaw
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To: Coastal

While this would be nice, it's just not possible to predict the electoral votes 4 years from now. I remember the red/bue map changing weekly in the months before the Nov 2004 election.


3 posted on 02/26/2005 3:44:46 PM PST by Fido969
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To: Fido969

But in the end, only 3 states flipped.


4 posted on 02/26/2005 3:46:17 PM PST by RWR8189 (Its Morning in America Again!)
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To: Coastal
America Gets Redder

On the very same day that Howard Dean infiltrates the south? Makes sense to me...

5 posted on 02/26/2005 3:48:11 PM PST by Libloather (The left is dead! Long live their impeached *King and *Queen!)
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To: Libloather

Howard Dean's angry red face makes the red states redder?


6 posted on 02/26/2005 3:51:51 PM PST by Coastal
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To: Arkinsaw
You can bet your bottom dollar...that the Dems know the trend...

And that's exactly why there's a push to deep-six the Electoral College.

7 posted on 02/26/2005 3:56:05 PM PST by Osage Orange (Hillary Clinton's so crooked...you can't tell from her tracks whether she's coming or going....)
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To: Arkinsaw
Florida doesn't count, I don't view it as a red-state.

And you are right.

What if these new transplants into Florida flock to Broward or Dade county? Then Florida goes solidly Blue forever!

If taxpayers leave a Blue state for a Red state, then the Red state gets redder. If nontaxpayers and other assorted leeches and slugs leave a Blue state for a Red state, then that state can go from Red to Blue. It all depends on what type of person is leaving the state that dictates if this helps or hurts the current Red states.

8 posted on 02/26/2005 3:57:05 PM PST by Dont_Tread_On_Me_888 (John Kerry--three fake Purple Hearts. George Bush--one real heart of gold.)
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To: Arkinsaw

The results of the last election make Florida a very seriously purple verging on red state.


9 posted on 02/26/2005 4:03:24 PM PST by An Old Marine (Freedom isn't Free)
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To: Dont_Tread_On_Me_888

The key point is that "blue staters" are aborting future liberals, and conservatives are raising future voters.

Wonder when they will figure that one out?


10 posted on 02/26/2005 4:03:25 PM PST by Keith (now more than ever...it's about the judges)
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To: Coastal

I am not sure how long Nevada will remain a red state. In 2000, Bush beat Gore by almost 4 percentage points but only beat Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points. Nevada is a great state but it is now being inundated with Kalifornians who have screwed up their own state.


11 posted on 02/26/2005 4:04:53 PM PST by eeman
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To: Dont_Tread_On_Me_888
If taxpayers leave a Blue state for a Red state, then the Red state gets redder.

The hole in your logic is that blue states offer better benefits to non-workers and marginal workers. In shor tthe very things that make a state blue are the things that retain blue state voters. Meanwhile red voters move to red states to avoid paying for the welfare that blue states use to buy Dem voters.

12 posted on 02/26/2005 4:06:43 PM PST by An Old Marine (Freedom isn't Free)
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To: Osage Orange

I don't think they'll ever be able to pull that off, at least not without a Constitutional amendment first which eases the amendment process (to make the small states less influential).


13 posted on 02/26/2005 4:09:43 PM PST by Still Thinking (Disregard the law of unintended consequences at your own risk.)
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To: eeman
Nevada is a great state but it is now being inundated with Kalifornians who have screwed up their own state.

<sarcasm>

Maybe we need a law (you know, laws solve all problems) that sez Kalis can't leave their state.

They screwed it up. Let 'em stew in it.

It's unfair that they can learn how to screw up their state, then leave, go to another state and apply what they learned.

</sarcasm>

14 posted on 02/26/2005 4:11:50 PM PST by upchuck ("If our nation be destroyed, it would be from the judiciary." ~ Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Coastal

Don't forget, AZ will get 2 more EVs.


15 posted on 02/26/2005 4:16:16 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Arkinsaw

P-shaaawww

FL has gone to the Dems ONCE in the last 25 years.


16 posted on 02/26/2005 4:18:35 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Fido969

Only the election day poll counts.


17 posted on 02/26/2005 4:19:17 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Coastal
With greater vigilance against voter fraud in Wisconsin, George W. Bush could have been elected last November without Ohio's electoral votes.

I think it is a mistake to assume the breakdown by states in 2008 will closely resemble the 2000 and 2004 maps. It's possible...but it isn't common in American history to have three presidential elections in a row where the electoral college distribution is very similar.

There are too many imponderables. Will three and a half years of MSM shilling for Hillary make her an odds-on favorite in November 2008, or will the ongoing war on terror make enough voters reluctant to put a powermad Marxist harpy at the controls when the country's safety is at stake? She has more negative baggage than Kerry, and the MSM wasn't able to put him in office.

How many people in February 1989 would have predicted that Bill Clinton would be president 48 months later, or in February 1997 would have predicted GWB's victory in the next election? There could be someone who hasn't been given much consideration yet who will capture the Democratic nomination in 2008.

18 posted on 02/26/2005 4:19:25 PM PST by Verginius Rufus
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To: Coastal

Of the 100 fastest growing counties, Bush won 97 and tied 1 in the last election. Kerry got the remainder.


19 posted on 02/26/2005 4:21:39 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Coastal

.

The first thing Senator-Elect HILLARY CLINTON vowed on the morning after her 2000 election was to declare that her first U.S. Senate Bill would be to eliminate the U.S. Constitution's Electoral College.

The Enemy is now Within...
and always has been.

.


20 posted on 02/26/2005 4:23:23 PM PST by ALOHA RONNIE ("ALOHA RONNIE" Guyer/Veteran-"WE WERE SOLDIERS" Battle of IA DRANG-1965 http://www.lzxray.com)
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To: Run Silent Run Deep

Yes, I've wondered about that as well.

I'm not sure how they came up with the +6 scenario only being in Texas and Florida.

AZ, NV and other SW states are growing just as fast.


21 posted on 02/26/2005 4:38:01 PM PST by Coastal
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To: eeman

ah yes......someone found a way to blame California for something totally unrelated....how do you know it is Dems or Repubs moving to Nevada.......seems like many are moving to Las Vegas from all over the country.........


22 posted on 02/26/2005 4:39:38 PM PST by NorCalRepub
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To: upchuck

some things are screwed up in Calif.....but still the 5th largest economy in the world....Gray Davis screwed us up so when we get out of our budget mess, we will have to find a way to get rid of Boxer.....blaming everything on Calif is either foolish or just shows a certain kind of jealousy...been there and heard it all


23 posted on 02/26/2005 4:43:03 PM PST by NorCalRepub
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To: Dont_Tread_On_Me_888

There are some scary trends of some red states getting bluer with the influx of California voters. Think Montana, Colorado, Arizona, and Wyoming as a start.


24 posted on 02/26/2005 4:43:35 PM PST by alwaysconservative (It's better to be a has-been than a never-was.)
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To: Coastal

Last time we had a net gain of 7 even though IN, MS, OH, and OK (all red) each lost one in the last reapportionment

We may lose some here and there next time too but we should see the expected gain of 6-8 overall.


25 posted on 02/26/2005 4:47:52 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Coastal

The 2000 presidential election is turning out to be much more important than first believed, in terms of reapportionment and census data. If Gore had won, he would have mandated the Census Bureau to conduct statistical sampling. After the election, the Dems pushed hard for sampling, but Bush stuck his fingers in their eyes. The '08 election is an opportunity for the GOP to keep the Dems in the minority for an awfully long time!


26 posted on 02/26/2005 4:57:07 PM PST by Yaelle
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To: alwaysconservative

remember that 46% of the electorate in Calif is Repub so maybe those leaving here are acutally conservatives...Bush got 5 million votes here, more than any other state....you are just speculating on an easy target......liberals I think tend to like to stay on the coast unfortunately


27 posted on 02/26/2005 5:00:48 PM PST by NorCalRepub
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To: Run Silent Run Deep

where'dja get the 97 counties?

i'd like to see it and copy it for reference.

gracias.


28 posted on 02/26/2005 5:03:01 PM PST by ken21 ( warning: a blood bath when rehnquist, et al retire. >hang w dubya.< dems want 2 divide us.)
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To: Keith

Conservatism isn't hereditary.


29 posted on 02/26/2005 5:05:09 PM PST by HitmanLV
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To: Osage Orange

That's why they drive their party even further to the left. Because they know the country is becoming more conservative.


30 posted on 02/26/2005 5:32:30 PM PST by mhx
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To: ken21

It was an article in the LA Times last Nov 22nd. It is now archived on their site (for a fee) but I found it reprinted on another site.

Here is the link and a sample:

http://www.ecolivingcenter.com/board/politics/messages/47.html

GOP PLANTS FLAG ON NEW VOTING FRONTIER

"In this month's election, President Bush carried 97 of the nation's 100 fastest-growing counties, most of them "exurban" communities that are rapidly transforming farmland into subdivisions and shopping malls on the periphery of major metropolitan areas.

Together, these fast-growing communities provided Bush a punishing 1.72 million vote advantage over Democrat John F. Kerry, according to a Times analysis of election results. That was almost half the president's total margin of victory."

"...In almost all the other fast-growing counties, Bush not only beat Kerry, he beat him badly.

In a handful of these counties, officials are still finalizing their vote tallies. But based on virtually complete totals for the 100 counties, Bush took 70% or more of the vote in 40 of them, and 60% or more in 70 of them. In all, Bush won 63% of the votes cast in these 100 counties..."

IT'S A BEAUTIFUL THING!





31 posted on 02/26/2005 5:40:39 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Run Silent Run Deep

gracias.


32 posted on 02/26/2005 5:41:38 PM PST by ken21 ( warning: a blood bath when rehnquist, et al retire. >hang w dubya.< dems want 2 divide us.)
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To: Dont_Tread_On_Me_888
What if these new transplants into Florida flock to Broward or Dade county?

You forgot Palm Beach.

33 posted on 02/26/2005 5:42:33 PM PST by Clemenza (Alcohol Tobacco & Firearms: The Other Holy Trinity)
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To: Keith
The key point is that "blue staters" are aborting future liberals, and conservatives are raising future voters.

Wonder when they will figure that one out?

Why do you think the libs took over the NEA and education? Since they can't indoctrinate their own aborted children into the looney left, they'll indoctrinate yours. They get all the satisfaction without all the heartache, pain and expense of child rearing.

The war is fought on many fronts.

34 posted on 02/26/2005 5:42:55 PM PST by AFreeBird (your mileage may vary)
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To: alwaysconservative
There are some scary trends of some red states getting bluer

Indiana is getting bluer, we're still a red state for the most part, but Indy went blue, we have a lot of illegals, union idiots and the like around here, not to mention the influx of foreigners from other blue states.

And the busy bodies are out in force this year. Seatbelts, smoking bans etc...

35 posted on 02/26/2005 5:46:03 PM PST by AFreeBird (your mileage may vary)
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To: Coastal

Having to need either FL or OH, and not both, will be critical. Unless the Republicans get real dumb and try to run Bob Dole types, we should be pretty safe next decade.


36 posted on 02/26/2005 5:46:38 PM PST by SigPro2340
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To: AFreeBird

Why was my child compelled to go to school and be taught by a member of a labor union?

Why am I compelled to support such a system?


37 posted on 02/26/2005 5:57:58 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Coastal
"This projection points to probable Republican control of the White House and the House of Representatives far into the future"

...and the final end of the Party of Fools and Scoundrels!

38 posted on 02/26/2005 6:06:04 PM PST by Savage Beast (My parents, grandparents, and great grandparents were Democrats. My children are Republicans.)
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To: Run Silent Run Deep
Why am I compelled to support such a system?

Umm, your tax dollars at work.

39 posted on 02/26/2005 6:17:08 PM PST by AFreeBird (your mileage may vary)
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To: Coastal

Simple counting will give an answer.
Old States like Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio are losing population or standing still at best.
The South grows up to eight times faster.
New investments, manufacturing plants: In the south only, without unions and more productive, followed by more red on the map.
Results up north: Unemployment up along with aging populations, entrenched unions, domination by liberal politicians, higher taxes, and staying blue on the map.
Ever heard a politician presenting a plan to help attract business during elections and what it takes to do this?
It's called favoring business, instead of it taxing more. Favors to somebody that already gets welfare it's a taboo.


40 posted on 02/26/2005 6:40:03 PM PST by hermgem
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To: NorCalRepub

Okay, I agree with that. But I was thinking more of the Hollyweird, coastal types who buy (comparatively) cheap land in Montana and Wyoming, and it only took a few of them to swing some rural-dominated areas that were formerly quite red to actually voting blue this last time.


41 posted on 02/26/2005 8:31:15 PM PST by alwaysconservative (It's better to be a has-been than a never-was.)
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To: Arkinsaw
Florida doesn't count, I don't view it as a red-state. It's essentially a toss-up state.

It's a tossup state leaning red.

42 posted on 02/26/2005 8:40:09 PM PST by Paleo Conservative (Hey! Hey! Ho! Ho! Andrew Heyward's got to go!)
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To: AFreeBird

Why am I compelled to support such a system?
>Umm, your tax dollars at work.

My tax dollars at waste!


43 posted on 02/26/2005 10:39:10 PM PST by Run Silent Run Deep
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To: Still Thinking
Let's hope you are correct...although I could see a scenario where some RINO's jump on that bandwagon.

FRegards,

44 posted on 02/27/2005 6:29:27 AM PST by Osage Orange (Hillary Clinton's so crooked...you can't tell from her tracks whether she's coming or going....)
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To: ALOHA RONNIE

The Enemy is now Within...
and always has been.

I agree Ronnie. This message has to be gotten out and the Electoral College has to stay. Communist thugs are the only ones that want to get rid of it. My Best to you and yours Ronnie and God Bless America and all of us.


45 posted on 02/27/2005 6:38:15 AM PST by JOE43270 (JOE43270 America voted and said we are One Nation Under God with Liberty and Justice for All.)
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To: Osage Orange

It doesn't matter what percentage of federal stooges are in favor, even if it's all of them. 38 state legislatures have to approve it too, which would probably include 34 that would be ceding power to the DNC and the feds. I can't see it happening unless the actual amendment process is changed, which would also require an amendment. That one might slip under the radar of some though, and others have their own reasons for wanting the amendment process eased, so that's the only avenue I see for a successful (for the bad guys) attack on the EC.


46 posted on 02/27/2005 6:53:51 AM PST by Still Thinking (Disregard the law of unintended consequences at your own risk.)
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To: Still Thinking
I agree with you.....

Although another Presidential election that ends with the winner ( especially a GOP winner..) not getting the popular vote majority...but winning the EC. ( I think that's potentially in the cards...based on '00, & '04 ) Will undoubtedly raise the decibel levels of the ranting.

FRegards,

47 posted on 02/27/2005 7:08:12 AM PST by Osage Orange (I'm a man, I can change, if I want to...Maybe.)
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