Skip to comments.Electoral College Analysis: America Gets Redder
Posted on 02/26/2005 3:42:25 PM PST by Coastal
A projection by Polidata, a Republican-oriented political mapping and redistricting firm, shows population trends will make Republican-dominated "Red" states more influential in winning presidential elections and determining control of Congress after the 2010 census.
The new study forecasts that "Red" states will pick up a net six electoral votes, with Florida and Texas gaining three each. The "Blue" states carried by John Kerry, according to Polidata, will lose a net six electoral votes, led by New York's loss of two.
Under this distribution of electoral votes, George W. Bush could have been elected last November without carrying Ohio.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalledger.com ...
Florida doesn't count, I don't view it as a red-state. It's essentially a toss-up state. The Texas gain and New York loss though will make some folks cry though.
While this would be nice, it's just not possible to predict the electoral votes 4 years from now. I remember the red/bue map changing weekly in the months before the Nov 2004 election.
But in the end, only 3 states flipped.
On the very same day that Howard Dean infiltrates the south? Makes sense to me...
Howard Dean's angry red face makes the red states redder?
And that's exactly why there's a push to deep-six the Electoral College.
And you are right.
What if these new transplants into Florida flock to Broward or Dade county? Then Florida goes solidly Blue forever!
If taxpayers leave a Blue state for a Red state, then the Red state gets redder. If nontaxpayers and other assorted leeches and slugs leave a Blue state for a Red state, then that state can go from Red to Blue. It all depends on what type of person is leaving the state that dictates if this helps or hurts the current Red states.
The results of the last election make Florida a very seriously purple verging on red state.
The key point is that "blue staters" are aborting future liberals, and conservatives are raising future voters.
Wonder when they will figure that one out?
I am not sure how long Nevada will remain a red state. In 2000, Bush beat Gore by almost 4 percentage points but only beat Kerry by about 2.5 percentage points. Nevada is a great state but it is now being inundated with Kalifornians who have screwed up their own state.
The hole in your logic is that blue states offer better benefits to non-workers and marginal workers. In shor tthe very things that make a state blue are the things that retain blue state voters. Meanwhile red voters move to red states to avoid paying for the welfare that blue states use to buy Dem voters.
I don't think they'll ever be able to pull that off, at least not without a Constitutional amendment first which eases the amendment process (to make the small states less influential).
Maybe we need a law (you know, laws solve all problems) that sez Kalis can't leave their state.
They screwed it up. Let 'em stew in it.
It's unfair that they can learn how to screw up their state, then leave, go to another state and apply what they learned.
Don't forget, AZ will get 2 more EVs.
FL has gone to the Dems ONCE in the last 25 years.
Only the election day poll counts.
I think it is a mistake to assume the breakdown by states in 2008 will closely resemble the 2000 and 2004 maps. It's possible...but it isn't common in American history to have three presidential elections in a row where the electoral college distribution is very similar.
There are too many imponderables. Will three and a half years of MSM shilling for Hillary make her an odds-on favorite in November 2008, or will the ongoing war on terror make enough voters reluctant to put a powermad Marxist harpy at the controls when the country's safety is at stake? She has more negative baggage than Kerry, and the MSM wasn't able to put him in office.
How many people in February 1989 would have predicted that Bill Clinton would be president 48 months later, or in February 1997 would have predicted GWB's victory in the next election? There could be someone who hasn't been given much consideration yet who will capture the Democratic nomination in 2008.
Of the 100 fastest growing counties, Bush won 97 and tied 1 in the last election. Kerry got the remainder.
The first thing Senator-Elect HILLARY CLINTON vowed on the morning after her 2000 election was to declare that her first U.S. Senate Bill would be to eliminate the U.S. Constitution's Electoral College.
The Enemy is now Within...
and always has been.
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