Scientist foresaw Sumatran quake

Whittier Daily News.com ^ | Sunday, March 06, 2005 - 8:25:08 PM PST | Kimm Groshong , Staff Writer

[bd476]

Scientist foresaw Sumatran quake
Research showed area was ripe for temblor

By Kimm Groshong , Staff Writer
Article Published: Sunday, March 06, 2005 - 8:25:08 PM PST

PASADENA -- When the magnitude-9.0 earthquake and resultant tsunami devastated Sumatra and much of the Bay of Bengal on Dec. 26, Kerry Sieh's premonition became a nightmarish reality.

The Caltech geology professor had studied the history of giant earthquakes just south of the epicenter for about a decade and knew full well the damage such a major quake in that part of the world could inflict.

He had tried to get the word out that such an event was imminent. Now that hundreds of thousands have died, people are listening.

Sieh says people in Sumatra's other big cities know what happened in Aceh: "They're terrified. But they don't know what to do.'

Sieh's heightened desire to protect human lives, keen eye for detail and appreciation for what the historical record can foretell make him a unique geologist.

"He feels very passionately about using the science he does to protect people from earthquake hazards,' said Ken Farley, the chair of Caltech's division of geological and planetary sciences.

While Farley said much geological work is justified as earthquake hazard assessment, he said the priority Sieh places on others' safety makes him unusual.

By last summer, Sieh's concern that a major earthquake would hit off the coast of Sumatra had reached a level that prompted him to use some of his research funds to produce and distribute pamphlets and posters on the islands describing the threat along the subduction zone.

That zone is a 3,400-mile boundary where two of the Earth's large tectonic plates converge, one slowly driving beneath the other, building up stress as they get stuck for centuries at a time. Major earthquakes occur when the plates become unstuck, suddenly releasing the built- up stress. When they move, they produce tsunamis.

No one knew exactly when or where the earthquake would strike. But Sieh knew the boundary was ripe for a major slip. As it turned out, he was focused on an area a bit too far south.

Sieh and his team had determined by slicing into corals, and reading the natural record of water level they preserve, that giant earthquakes along the zone to the south recur about once every 200 years. The last major earthquake to hit offshore of central Sumatra occurred in 1833, was about magnitude 8.7 and produced large tsunamis.

Although Sieh and his group understood the threat Sumatra and its neighbors were facing, a tsunami was not high on the list of concerns for residents and government bodies going into the disaster, Sieh said.

Even one of the friends he had made in the course of field work in Sumatra, Cristina Fowler, who runs a surf charter and hotel there, told the geologist when he returned after the new year, "You warned us. I didn't listen to you. I'm just lucky I didn't die.'

And she wanted another of his posters to put up in her hotel.

Sieh says he doesn't blame urban planners for not acting on the information he provided to some of them in July. "I don't think the best city planner would have been better,' because it wasn't a priority at the time, he said. "Now it's a major issue.'

That's because only the northernmost portion of the boundary where the two tectonic plates meet ruptured in December. In the December release, Sieh explained that "the fact that most of the other part of the section has generated few great earthquakes in more than a hundred years is worrisome ... other parts within the section of this fault should be considered dangerous over the next few decades.'

Since 2002, Sieh and his colleagues have installed an array of GPS stations to track the sinking of the islands. Following their most recent trip to Sumatra in January, they now have 18 stations stretching to the northern tip of Aceh. They are watching the gradual healing process of the islands in the north and the behavior of the island to the south.

Now, Sieh is trying to inform villagers about what to do when they feel major shaking, urging them to clear paths to high ground and working with government officials and city planners to build adequate bridges and to consider relocating villages in safer locations.

Sieh kept a journal during his January trip to study the earthquake and sent it back to Caltech to share with the public. In his Jan. 10 entry, he wrote from the Pagai Islands, "I looked around at the dozen or so men, women and children around me and started to tear up. Are they going to be the next victims, when the great Mentawai earthquake happens? ... If you have gotten to know them, and then they are swept away in a tsunami or crushed in a collapsing building, how do you cope?'

Attending UC Riverside as an undergraduate in the late 1960s, Sieh, originally from Cedar Rapids, Iowa, became wrapped up in the frenzy of scientific interest surrounding the moon. As he studied the geochemistry of moon rocks, one of his friends jokingly asked him,"Kerry, what on Earth are you doing ... ?'

After spending most of his time on the San Andreas fault from 1975 until 1989, Sieh decided the major questions that could be answered about the fault had been answered.

Because he cites curiosity about how the world works and care for his fellow man as his primary motivations, and many of the first-order problems with earthquakes in California have been solved, Sieh shifted his focus to an area with a dire need of information in the early 1990s.

"I have no doubt that within the next century we'll have million-person losses,' caused by natural disasters in the developing world, Sieh said. "There will be hundreds of thousands more deaths in the next 10 to 15 years because of earthquakes alone.'

[bd476]

Ping.

[AntiGuv]

Amazing! Here's my prescient foresight: Major earthquakes will take place sometime during the next decade in California and Japan. Mark my words!

[bd476]

Good. And we promise to remember you when one happens. :)

[DustyMoment]

That was kind of my take on it as well. 20/20 hindsight and taking credit for something that happened - just not exactly the way this cat predicted it would.

I mean, if I predict that we will send probes to explore the planet Mercury, am I wrong when we send probes to explore the planet Mars? That's essentially what Sieh is claiming.

[Tilly]

You mean ... it's NOT Bush's Tsunami Machine, patented by Haliburto .... ?!?!!??!

[Tilly]

You mean ... it's NOT Bush's Tsunami Machine, patented by Haliburto .... ?!?!!??!

[bd476]

DustyMoment wrote: "20/20 hindsight and taking credit for something that happened - just not exactly the way this cat predicted it would.

I mean, if I predict that we will send probes to explore the planet Mercury, am I wrong when we send probes to explore the planet Mars? That's essentially what Sieh is claiming."

Not exactly.

From the article above, Professor Sieh

• made a ten year study of the area,
• made nearly accurate predictions on an impending devastating quake,
  
• invested some of his money in publishing pamphlets and posters then distributed them as warning to the people in the area,
  
• personally warned locals in the earthquake area, including one who is quoted in the article,
  
• as part of his research he and his team cut into coral,
  
• read and compared water depths, and finally
  
• proved that the area had had predictable cycles of quakes about every two hundred years.

"The Caltech geology professor had studied the history of giant earthquakes just south of the epicenter for about a decade and knew full well the damage such a major quake in that part of the world could inflict..."

and

"...He had tried to get the word out that such an event was imminent. Now that hundreds of thousands have died, people are listening..."

and

"...By last summer, Sieh's concern that a major earthquake would hit off the coast of Sumatra had reached a level that prompted him to use some of his research funds to produce and distribute pamphlets and posters on the islands describing the threat along the subduction zone..."

and

"...No one knew exactly when or where the earthquake would strike. But Sieh knew the boundary was ripe for a major slip. As it turned out, he was focused on an area a bit too far south..."

and

"...Sieh and his team had determined by slicing into corals, and reading the natural record of water level they preserve, that giant earthquakes along the zone to the south recur about once every 200 years. The last major earthquake to hit offshore of central Sumatra occurred in 1833, was about magnitude 8.7 and produced large tsunamis..."

and

"...Even one of the friends he had made in the course of field work in Sumatra, Cristina Fowler, who runs a surf charter and hotel there, told the geologist when he returned after the new year, "You warned us. I didn't listen to you. I'm just lucky I didn't die.'

And she wanted another of his posters to put up in her hotel...."

and

"...Since 2002, Sieh and his colleagues have installed an array of GPS stations to track the sinking of the islands. Following their most recent trip to Sumatra in January, they now have 18 stations stretching to the northern tip of Aceh. They are watching the gradual healing process of the islands in the north and the behavior of the island to the south.

and

"...Now, Sieh is trying to inform villagers about what to do when they feel major shaking, urging them to clear paths to high ground and working with government officials and city planners to build adequate bridges and to consider relocating villages in safer locations..."

and

"...'I have no doubt that within the next century we'll have million-person losses,' caused by natural disasters in the developing world, Sieh said. "There will be hundreds of thousands more deaths in the next 10 to 15 years because of earthquakes alone...' "

[maestro]

Kerry Sieh's premonition .........

and he really 'saw' the 'big bang' too....?

....very,.....'Sieh'

[bd476]

No one is suggesting that it's necessary to read all the words in any particular news story. In fact, there is no obligation to read anything at all. :)

[SubMareener]

Yes! You can just sit here an be happy! Ignore the science! Ignore the prophets! Only the folks on bd476's ping list need to be prepared. ;-)

[Quix]

PING Strategerist

I realize you don't believe such could have happened . . . perhaps this article can adjust your criteria somewhat.

[js1138]

Amazing! Here's my prescient foresight: Major earthquakes will take place sometime during the next decade in California and Japan. Mark my words!

Ninety percent of the people killed by the tidal waves could have survived if they knew to run when the sea receded. It's not high tech and doesn't even require an expensive early warning system.

Just a bit of knowledge and a clear path to high ground.

[Quix]

What a cheeky comment, imho.

He went out of his way to warn folks with pamphlets and was slighly off on location.

He was ahead on the timeline by several months

and still

all you can do is throw arrogant rocks.

Interesting.

[Quix]

AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN! AMEN!

Sometimes I think naysayers have a serious chronic disease--

TERMINAL ARROGANCE.

[Quix]

Well said.

[AntiGuv]

Well, it's not a big deal to me either way, but anyone who focused on the region could've easily predicted that "other parts within the section of this fault should be considered dangerous over the next few decades." Indonesia has been notable for seismic activity since a very long time ago and it's not much of a stretch to expect a major quake in this vicinity.

As for warning of tsunami, there was a very devastating earthquake-induced tsunami just a few years ago in Papua New Guinea (aside from just the general well-known risk of tsunami). The alarm over the potential for another disaster had been raised by that, but people still remained complacent.

Now, they're not.

[airborne]

Scientist foresaw Sumatran quake

Hindsight is always 20/20.

How convenient for him.

[airborne]

The Caltech geology professor had studied the history of giant earthquakes just south of the epicenter for about a decade and knew full well the damage such a major quake in that part of the world could inflict.

I'm sorry, but is it that surprising to expect that, over the course of a decade, that an area prone to tsunamis would have one?

IMHO, it took a catastrophe for people to accept a relative certainty.

In other words, it was bound to happen, but until it did, the average person will choose to live in denial.

[Quix]

Can you cite another remotely similar case where

a quality geologist doing quality research

went so far out of his way

to warn a population/geographic area

of a serious quake hazard being looming in the relatively short term

which was followed

within a relatively few months--literally a few months--

by a very devastating; shockingly devastating quake markedly uncommon in our times?

WHY IS IT SO HARD to give this guy his considerably above average due?

SHEESH!

[dirtboy]

WHY IS IT SO HARD to give this guy his considerably above average due?

I did not construe airborne's comments in that way. He is simply pointing out the blind spot of human nature that tries to will away potential hazards until they have become actual hazards.

[airborne]

WHY IS IT SO HARD to give this guy his considerably above average due?

I guess it's just my nature. Not that I'm proud of it all the time, but that's the honest truth.

[Quix]

I understand your point. But this shrink did not and does not read it that way.

And, to his credit, airborne seems to have more candor about his psychology, than you do. See his post following yours.

airborne--thanks tons. I love personal candor. It's understandable. I just get weary of such attitudes on FR. There's a whole cadre of forces hereon who seem to get only excited, only energized, only focused, only intent on naysaying throwing rocks--often unfittingly, inappropriately and at things and people much more deserving of awards than rocks.

This seemed to be a classic case of that. The guy should get an award.

He went way out of his way out of great personal concern for other's welfare--VERY UNCOMMON PERSONAL CONCERN FOR OTHERS' WELFARE AS ATTESTED TO BY HIS COLLEAGUES.

And all others can do is throw rocks???

FINALLY, WE HAVE AN OFFICIAL who is a super honorable public servant who goes WAY OUT OF HIS WAY TO PROTECT OTHERS LIVES at personal expense and bother--out of a sincerely caring heart!!!

. . . a real contrast to most bureaucrats and politicians and even too many scientists . . .

AND INSTEAD OF ENCOURAGING SUCH SELFLESSNESS; SUCH ALERTNESS PEOPLE FEEL COMPELLED TO THROW ROCKS????

Maybe our society DESERVES to crash and burn.

Sheeeeeessh.

Maybe that helps explain my perspectivve.

[airborne]

Maybe our society DESERVES to crash and burn.

Maybe. Maybe not. That isn't our call to make.

[Quix]

Thankfully so.

Given Washington's vision and those of many others, I don't expect our nation to be utterly destroyed. I do expect it to suffer great . . . even stern and harsh disciplines, judgments of The Lord for our rebellions . . .

Anyway--much enjoy the dialogue with you.

Have a blessed week.

[Rodney King]

as part of his research he and his team cut into coral,

Don't tell Greenpeace. Cutting into coral is a cardinal sin.

[airborne]

Thanks. My air rifle team is traveling to Ohio for 2 shoots. It should be an interesting week.

Be well!

[Rodney King]

other parts within the section of this fault should be considered dangerous over the next few decades.'

Thus setting himself up for another pat on the back.

[Quix]

Great! Getting outdoors in this season should be wonderful.

Success to you and your team(s).

[Quix]

You are such a very, ver, very poor psychologist about this guy.

Sheesh.

[AntiGuv]

I just really don't think it was all that difficult to predict a major earthquake in this region, or to associate a potential tsunami with such a prediction (all undersea quakes have some chance of generating a tsunami). I do think that it's quite admirable that he actually attempted to prepare the region, which should've taken measures after the Papua disaster. That received less press because it was more localized and hit much more isolated communities that weren't as densely populated. Actually, people did notice that but most didn't take the threat of tsunami in the Indian Ocean seriously (the Papua wave had been on the Pacific side). Astute people such as him realized that tsunami can hit any sizable body of water, and that the Indian Ocean was past due.

[sully777]

I predict I will take a shower. It will be monumental. I must warn the world.

[Quix]

All the hypotheticals are fine.

He cared.

He took action.

He was almost spot on in location and timing.

It's still cheeky throwing rocks at him. Cheeky and arrogant.

[AntiGuv]

My annoyance is with the general idea that we need a Cassandra to tell us where earthquakes will strike. By and large, we don't. If you need forecasts, here ya go.

There will be regular earthquakes of note in Central America, California, Alaska, Japan, Taiwan, and Indonesia. Several of those each decade will be magnitude 7.5 or above. There will be slightly less frequent earthquakes of note along the Andean ridge, in the Pacific Northwest, across Central Asia, and the Mediterranean. At least a couple of those each decade will be magnitude 7.5 or above. There will also be frequent earthquakes of note along the mid-oceanic ridges. Notable arthquakes in the rest world will be far less common with approximately this decreasing order of frequency: mainland China, the Middle East, Eastern Africa, India, North/West Europe, Australia, Eastern North America, Western Africa, Eastern South America. Every few decades one of these will be magnitude 7.5 or above.

Any sizable undersea or coastal quake has the potential to cause devastating tsunami waves. Time elapsed since most recent prior local tsunami has no bearing on imminence of next prospective local tsunami.

Please plan accordingly. If the ocean abruptly recedes, it will be back. Run.

[Old Professer]

Crap like this from Caltech?

[Quix]

Welll, thanks to you and your sweetness.

Maybe your sweetness could stop by the 7/11 sometime and buy you a gallon of humility in case you run out.