The Rising Sea Dragon in Asia - 2005 UPDATE

JEFFHEAD.COM ^ | March 7, 2005 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

With their Standard missiles, with Harpoon, with the excellent ASW capability, and with their NTU (New Threat Upgrade) sensor suite [NTDS (Naval Tactical Data Sytem)operating SPS-48E air search, SPS-55 Surface search, SPG-60 and SPQ-9A gun fire control, and UFCS (Underwater Fire Control System) operating SQS-53 sonar], I believe the KIDDs will fair very well against both the Sovermenny and the Lanzhou. In addition, they have the Phalanx CIWS and are NAVMACS (Naval Modular Automated Communication System).

When in US service they were known as AEGIS-light, and sport the ability to fire surface-to-air missiles in support of Aegis cruisers, which, if necessary, can assume control of the KIDD's missiles (very critical in any confrontation in the Straits of Formosa). The were considered in the mid-to late 1990's, next to the AEGIS cruisers, to be the most formidable warship of her size ever to patrol the world's oceans, blending the best features of the SPRUANCE Class destroyers with the combat system of the VIRGINIA Class nuclear cruisers to produce a ship with unique characteristics:

• A ship so quiet, and an ASW system so capable, that she operates offensively against submarines.

• They were considered, next to the AEGIS ships, to be the most sophisticated medium-range AAW systems in the Fleet, quick-reacting and highly accurate, with the capability for today's air defense environment and the growth potential for tomorrow's.

• An exceptionally reliable and responsive engineering plant.

• A deadly surface-to-surface weapons capability

IOW...do not count the KIDDs out, they are still very, very capable surface combatants.

Just my opinion.

[GOP_1900AD]

What a wild order of battle this is shaping up to be ...

[Jeff Head]

Basically US stuff (althought the ROC also has some French and indiginous stuff) against Russian and indiginous PRC stuff.

In the past when it came to pitting Russian stuff against US stuff in Israel, in Iraq, and elsewhere...US stuff cleaned clock.

I believe the Chinese are premature in pushing things hard now...and that's fine...unless they have some ace up their sleave that they plan to spring on us (ie. a truly operational and effective supercavitating weapon or some other technological or asymetrical surprise we are not prepared for).

[Mase]

"However, I have met a number of average Chinese who, while not involved in politics, do believe in future Chinese hegemony"
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I don't doubt that at all. I suspect there are many in Russia who believe that the Ukraine, the Baltic's etc. still belong under their sphere of influence. I'm certain there are many Russians who, at one time, also believed that war with us was inevitable. I don't agree with you that the younger ethnic Chinese in SE Asia are pro PRC given the very real threat they pose to their freedom.

Again, my hope is the Chinese elites will want something more than communist rule and can influence the party toward a freer economy and political system. Whether this happens or not Chinese aggression has to be contained. If the Middle East continues to adopt democratic reforms and Russia can be pushed in the right direction, China will find itself in a box.

Additionally, I hope we continue pushing the Japanese to change their constitution so they can arm themselves to the teeth. This would give them something to do with all the dollars they have and would be a boon to our armament industry. It would also serve to stimulate their domestic economy which has been bogged down for over a decade. Having a friendly bulwark between China and North Korea would help temper any enthusiasm the Chinese communists have for expansion.

[GOP_1900AD]

RE: Additionally, I hope we continue pushing the Japanese to change their constitution so they can arm themselves to the teeth. This would give them something to do with all the dollars they have and would be a boon to our armament industry. It would also serve to stimulate their domestic economy which has been bogged down for over a decade.

Yep!

[Mase]

RE: I believe the huge market, as long as the communists are still in power, is an illusion specifically intended to draw us there.
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You may be right but don't think the businesses going into this market are doing so with blinders on. They know full well what the risks are and that their technology could be stolen, their business model duplicated or one of many other bad scenarios. The government could always nationalize industry once they have what they want. Doing so, however, would end any western influence which would be to their detriment.

If the economy develops as promised then the ones who get there first are in an excellent position to benefit from the development of a huge market.

Should their economy collapse from a looming banking crisis and Beijing's insistence on micromanaging investments, they may choose to work their way out of it by eliminating the onerous controls that sent them there in the first place. Unless of course the IMF decides to come in and bail them out.

Or, they may choose to blame the west and go to war to deal with the inevitable unrest from the effects of economic collapse. I hope for the best but fully understand the worst that could happen.

[sukhoi-30mki]

I think the missile that Saddam fired at Kuwait was nothing more than a modified Silkworm-which was older than most American soldiers fighting the war.

about the rail gun concept,
http://www.donaldsensing.com/2004/07/rail-guns-for-navy.html

[Mase]

RE:I love this one:The United States is 41st in the world in infant mortality. Cuba scores higher (NYT, Jan. 12, 2005).

Or this one:"The U.S. and South Africa are the only two developed countries in the world that do not provide health care for all their citizens."
______________________

Here is my favorite:
"Of the 20 most developed countries in the world, the U.S. was dead last in the growth rate of total compensation to its workforce in the 1980s.... In the 1990s, the U.S. average compensation growth rate grew only slightly, at an annual rate of about 0.1 percent" (The European Dream, p.39). Yet Americans work longer hours per year than any other industrialized country, and get less vacation time.


No mention that in the 90's we created 20 million jobs to the EU's 2 million. They extol the EU's 32 hour work week and 6 weeks of vacation but never mention the low productivity or 10+% unemployment. Hey, at least Germany has a trade surplus!

With sources like the NYT, AP, The European Dream(?), CNN and USA Today; who am I to argue with these facts?

[Frumious Bandersnatch]

The biggest problem that I see here is that China launches a war against Taiwan to relieve itself from internal problems resulting from corruption and tyranny. Argentina did that - with disastrous results for Argentina.

[GOP_1900AD]

RE: but don't think the businesses going into this market are doing so with blinders on.

I would have to challenge you here. To me, not going in with blinders on would look something like the following. A very formal analysis, not unlike what insurance actuary table developers might undertake, would be done. There would be many factors included. Among them would be the fact of dealing with a non elected, more or less Communist government and future geopolitical threats. Having been actually involved in the nuts and bolts discussions regarding where to source, and where to place operations in the field, I can state that in my own experience, the approach has not had the rigor I have described. There has been little if any formal consideration of geopolitical risks. Look at the typical business continuity plan. They only look at things like natural disasters, civil unrest and terrorism. They don't have a category such as "Stalinists move government in host country to war footing" or things like that.

[Jeff Head]

But Argentina was not in the economic/maufacturing/trade position CHina is in...and also did not have a couple of hundred million people that the leadership needed to use one way or another.

Don't get me wrong, if China goes postal, I believe the results will ultimately be the same as when Hitler and Tojo did...but I believe it wost oceans of blood, the lives of the best amongst us, and mountains of the wealth of this nation and others which could be put to better use. Unfortunately, as Thomas Paine said with respect to the personal gun ownership when asked if every man would be better off laying down their arms, he said that in fact it would be great if noone owned firearms, but then added this wise insight..."but because others will not, we dare not.".

So it is is on the international scale as well. If we are to stay free...we must remain armed. And I prefer that we are so well armed that no one else dares mess with us.

[Jeff Head]

In case the two of you hadn't seen this...more developments on the rapid buildup of the Red Chinese Navy (PLAN). Must be what our parents and grandparents experienced in the ate 1930's.

[Jeff Head]

Sorry for the typos...

...but I believe it wost oceans of blood...

Should read...

...but I believe it will cost oceans of blood...

[Rockpile]

If China is ever to field aircraft carriers they are going to need to start small and learn the game.

Seems to me that the Varyag or something like it would be deployed first as a training vessel.

[Cronos]

The Pakis are on China's side -- in any war with China, Pakistan will fight shoulder to shoulder with China -- after all they have Chinese-made nuclear weapons and Chinese-made missiles (via North Korea).

[Cronos]

The Pakis are on China's side -- in any war with China, Pakistan will fight shoulder to shoulder with China -- after all they have Chinese-made nuclear weapons and Chinese-made missiles (via North Korea, in exchange for nuclear weapons to NK) AND they gave the Chinese the tech for making the Chinese copy of the F16 (the plane we sold to the Pakis)

[Ecthelion]

Exactly. They have diesel electric subs now. Woofreakinhoo. Waste of a torpedo from one of our attack subs. Let's put it this way: the Russians never became as good as us at Naval technology or tactics, and yet people expect the Chinese to suddenly become demigods because they now have aging Russian equipment? Bah.

[Jeff Head]

In litoral, close waters, particularly with air support from their own shores, the newer diesel electrics are very dangerous. That is the exact setting in the Taiwan Straits, much of the South China Sea and most of the China Sea.

Do not underestimate them...underestimating the enemy leads to additonal deaths for ourselves and our allies.

[Jeff Head]

More on the Cinese Naval buildup.

[Jeff Head]

More on the Red Chinese naval buildup.