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Pentagon delegation arrives in Taipei for talks with military
Taipei Times ^ | Mar 17, 2005 | Rich Chang

Posted on 03/16/2005 8:34:58 PM PST by Lokibob

 

 

 

Pentagon delegation arrives in Taipei for talks with militaryBy Rich Chang
STAFF REPORTER
Thursday, Mar 17, 2005,Page 1

A US military delegation arrived in Taipei yesterday, and will discuss the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) capabilities with Taiwanese military officials.

A member of the delegation, who requested anonymity, told the Taipei Times that the US saw the possibility of China's launching an attack using asymmetric warfare tactics against Taiwan as increasing.

"The US is concerned as to whether the PLA would be able to start an asymmetric war against Taiwan and whether there exists a fifth column of infiltrators in Taiwan," he said.

He said that the military delegation would also attend a four-day, closed-door unscheduled briefing with the Ministry of National Defense (MND) on the PLA's ability to invade Taiwan.

Meanwhile, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Hsueh Shih-ming (Á§¥Û¥Á) told the legislature on Monday that, according to NSB statistics, law enforcement officials have documented more than 49,000 Chinese illegal immigrants in Taiwan, and had repatriated more than 45,000 of them. Over 4,000 are missing.

Hsueh said that, while the NSB found that some of them are spying for China in Taiwan, the NSB has yet to uncover any organized activity among Chinese immigrants.

Hsueh, however, admitted that the NSB is concerned that China might use infiltrators to engage in asymmetric warfare against Taiwan, employing such tactics as sabotage and hacker attacks, or using biological and chemical weapons to destroy Taiwan's military infrastructure, command systems, and political and business centers in a short time.

"The goal of such tactics is to devastate the morale of our armed forces and citizens. This threat is strikingly similar to terrorism in nature," he added.

The US delegation member said that in addition to discussing Chinese infiltrators, the delegation would also exchange its views with Taipei on China's increasingly aggressive submarine force.

He said the US is concerned about incursions by Chinese submarines into the waters surrounding Japan and the Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan.

"A Chinese nuclear submarine made an incursion into waters near Okinawa last November, which really angered and affected Japan," he said.

The US is also concerned about China's acquisition of advanced Kilo-class attack submarines from Russia, he said.

He added that the US is seeking to share intelligence with Taiwan about anti-submarine warfare.

He said several delegations of US military personal would be arriving in Taipei in succession to observe the annual Han Kuang (Han Glory) exercises.

In related news, a Chinese newspaper yesterday said that the former commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Thomas Fargo, will lead the US' biggest-ever delegation to watch this year's war games, which begin next month.

Japan will also send military personnel to Taipei, the paper said.

The report said the nation's military is preparing to conduct joint computer war games with the US and Japan, and the military will link up with the US military's Pacific headquarters in Hawaii for the first time.



TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: china; dod; military; taiwan; talks; wargames
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FYI, things seem to be heating up.
1 posted on 03/16/2005 8:34:59 PM PST by Lokibob
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To: Lokibob
Look at the picture..
A Chinese man looks at a missile at the Chinese Military Museum in Beijing. They have it like it is a holy shrine or something.

This whole thing could go down before the end of this year.

The 5th column thing is more alarming than the military superiority of the chicoms.
2 posted on 03/16/2005 8:52:53 PM PST by skybolt
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To: Lokibob

I just hope that our boys aren't worn out from work in the Middle East. Now we have to worry about something in the Far East.


3 posted on 03/16/2005 8:56:35 PM PST by Guht
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To: Lokibob
After years of buildup and preparation, the Chinese military leadership is probably chafing at the bit, hence a sop thrown in their direction when the Party passed that recent 'Let's Invade Taiwan Soon' anti-succession law. Strangely, with no real evidence, I don't think the Party wants a war--at least not this soon, not yet. If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately. As it is, they're uncertain how Bush will react. The President has encouraged this ambiguity, walking a fine line throughout most of his administration, discouraging talk of outright Taiwanese independence and stressing the 'one China' policy while simultaneously promoting strengthened coordination with Japanese and Taiwanese military planners. A strange game paradigm is emerging here. The President, it seems to me, is a poker kind of guy who keeps it close to the vest, his face unreadable. This is good for us in the short term, but at some point the Chinese are going to make their play. In my view, it will happen after the current administration. The Chinese leadership knew in their bones that a President Kerry would stand back and do nothing. The Party, patient if nothing else, will wait for another Kerry or Clinton. In the meantime, they'll probably continue to placate their military and solidify their position.
4 posted on 03/16/2005 9:03:27 PM PST by Rembrandt_fan
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To: Lokibob

Ah, jeepers. I've gotta pack...and this is big news day.


5 posted on 03/16/2005 9:03:55 PM PST by ApesForEvolution (I just took a Muhammad and wiped my Jihadist with Mein Koran...come and get me nutbags.)
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To: Lokibob

Meanwhile, National Security Bureau (NSB) Director-General Hsueh Shih-ming (Á§¥Û¥Á) told the legislature on Monday that, according to NSB statistics, law enforcement officials have documented more than 49,000 Chinese illegal immigrants in Taiwan, and had repatriated more than 45,000 of them. Over 4,000 are missing.

>>>

Can they send advisors to America??


6 posted on 03/16/2005 9:07:17 PM PST by ApesForEvolution (I just took a Muhammad and wiped my Jihadist with Mein Koran...come and get me nutbags.)
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To: Lokibob

"A Chinese nuclear submarine made an incursion into waters near Okinawa last November, which really angered and affected Japan," he said.

>>>

I would like Heir Clinton to stand before a Grand Jury instead of being rehabilitated by a Republican POTUS...


7 posted on 03/16/2005 9:09:10 PM PST by ApesForEvolution (I just took a Muhammad and wiped my Jihadist with Mein Koran...come and get me nutbags.)
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To: Guht

This is going to be a long World War and the Big Terror Dogs are just getting past their proxies...


8 posted on 03/16/2005 9:10:01 PM PST by ApesForEvolution (I just took a Muhammad and wiped my Jihadist with Mein Koran...come and get me nutbags.)
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To: Rembrandt_fan

What worries me the most is that if China does decide to move decisively against the ROC then they will also know that we will in some way retaliate. Simple causality. However, the question then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries? It could theoretically bring our country to an economic standstill by completely devaluing our currency.


9 posted on 03/16/2005 9:11:19 PM PST by Guht
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To: ApesForEvolution

Well then the next question is on which side will the rest of the world line up? My thought is that Russia will do nothing and that Europe will probably also sit this out simply because it's in their economic intrest to do so.


10 posted on 03/16/2005 9:16:04 PM PST by Guht
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To: Lokibob
Looks like we are preparing for an inevitable war. The Chinese aren't going to attack unless they believe they will have a quick victory. Their country will be destroyed if they get into a long conflict against The United States, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia(As long as were all in it 100%). If they attack they will have a plan they believe will achieve victory very fast in my opinion.

I also think North Korea would get involved. I know Russia would do everything to oppose us and could possible even get actively involved.

What do you guys think would happen if China attacked Taiwan? If we repelled an attack do you think we would go all the way and topple the communist regime? What do you guys think North Korea and Russia will do if war breaks out with China?
11 posted on 03/16/2005 9:24:43 PM PST by ThermoNuclearWarrior (PRESSURE BUSH TO CLOSE THE BORDERS!!!)
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To: Guht
Any head-to-head shooting war with a major power like China has major economic ramifications, particularly since our opponents understand that economic warfare is simply another extension of the struggle. We'll suffer, sure, but previous generations have seen worse. It's then, while our people are suffering a major, nationwide economic blow, that our leadership makes itself felt--or doesn't. Whatever you might think of his domestic policies, Roosevelt's gifts as a war leader were unparalleled in terms of the fighting spirit with which he instilled the people--not just those putting on a uniform and picking up a rifle. He helped folks understand the issues at stake, which were higher than the cost of bread or gasoline.

As for me, I have faith that our people can take whatever the enemy can dish out. For their part, the Chinese think that since our military has been ingrained with the fear of a land war in Asia, thanks to Field Marshal Montgomery and the Vietnam experience, that we'll politely refrain from taking the fight to them, that we'll confine the battle to the Taiwan Strait. While no military strategist, I think they're mistaken. I think they'll lose, and badly.
12 posted on 03/16/2005 9:34:13 PM PST by Rembrandt_fan
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior

Well that's the problem, you see going into China is simply madness. Simply put there are too many Chinese and let's be honest, many of them are very happy with how the Chinese government's economic policies. Our one true advantage is in sea power. The Chinese do not have the amphibious units necessary in order to make a significant assualt on the ROC. Having said that, the problems of infiltrators becomes a real concern.

Then we consider North Korea, yes he's a mad-man, but you can be assured that any open conflict between the US and the PRC will lead to an invasion of South Korea. The question then becomes under what circumstances will Pyongyang use the tactical nukes they posess.


13 posted on 03/16/2005 9:39:56 PM PST by Guht
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To: Rembrandt_fan
"If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately. As it is, they're uncertain how Bush will react."


He doesn't need to keep them guessing. He needs to make it clear to them by stating he will defend Taiwan if they attack like he did at the beginning of his first term. We also need to show public support for Taiwan declaring independence. Waiting and appeasing China is only allowing them to choose the perfect timing of an invasion and allowing them to become more powerful. Let's push them until they back down when it comes to Taiwan or attack while they are less prepared then they will be in the future.
14 posted on 03/16/2005 9:41:13 PM PST by ThermoNuclearWarrior (PRESSURE BUSH TO CLOSE THE BORDERS!!!)
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Any freepers been to Taipei? I know there are a coupe and there was one living there but he hasn't posted in a few years...

No trip is complete without a visit to "Snake Alley" (no it's not a resort for liberal politicians)


15 posted on 03/16/2005 9:42:30 PM PST by KneelBeforeZod ( I'm going to open Cobra Kai dojos all over this valley!)
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior

Is our military in the position to truly push back the Chinese? I think that we can definitely project power with a couple of carrier battle groups, but let's face it our boys (and girls) in the Army and Marines are tired. Will they go if asked of course they will, but let's be honest, they are not the sharp sword that they were before Iraq it's more of a big club. The desert takes a toll on the people AND the equipment. Do I believe that we could succeed yes (don't be callin' me a peace-nut yet) but let's be honest the US used our holdings of the British pound during the Suez Canal Incident as a way to keep the British from invading. 600+ billion is no small amount, taken in conjuction with the loss of our manufacturing base, our dependence on China for trade (Wal-mart alone is China's 6th largest buyer of goods) it paints a much darker picture then ones we have faced in the past.

The conventional wisdom on the difference between the Peoples Liberation Army and the USArmy is that they simply don't have the technology to compete with us. I dispute that, Intel has a plant in China now, you can be assured that in the event of war all of our patriotic companies which outsourced the work of Americans for a couple of percent additional profit will be nationalized.

Let me put it this way, I am afraid of the corner we have put ourselves into.


16 posted on 03/16/2005 9:53:27 PM PST by Guht
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To: Guht
then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries?

Declare their treasuries worthless and default on them for picking a fight with us.

17 posted on 03/16/2005 9:55:05 PM PST by Centurion2000 (Nations do not survive by setting examples for others. Nations survive by making examples of others)
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To: Guht
I think your worries there are a concern at the same time (unfounded?) $600 Bill in US debt would quickly be snapped up at low prices. I would by as much as I could.

On the other hand say the downside happened, then our economy would be thrown into a true wartime economy, once again US prevails.

Hey if US needs some cannon fodder, this old 2/1 cav guy will take an M16 against the chicoms.
18 posted on 03/16/2005 9:57:07 PM PST by skybolt
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To: Guht
We need a bigger Military. I don't understand how a country our size can be "over stretched" by being involved in 2 relatively small wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. We should have a Military big enough to take on Nations like China, Russia and North Korea even while having troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. I am all for putting money into better Military technology but that's not going to make up for our lack of troops when it comes to a bigger conflict.
19 posted on 03/16/2005 10:02:13 PM PST by ThermoNuclearWarrior (PRESSURE BUSH TO CLOSE THE BORDERS!!!)
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To: Centurion2000

That could have potentially worked in a world where the world opinion of the US was favorable. Heck it's not even the world opinion, it's the other countries which hold substantial amounts of the US debt. I think that Japan would go along with it, but unfortunetly I don't think that you will see any EU member nations go with that plan, they simply put are not happy with us and regardless of your personal opinion of them, they do matter when it comes to matters of international finance. I think that the country's credit rating would drop into the garbage. The ramifications would be felt for years possibly 10's of years.


20 posted on 03/16/2005 10:02:50 PM PST by Guht
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior
You wrote: "Let's push them until they back down when it comes to Taiwan or attack while they are less prepared then they will be in the future."

And if they don't back down? If they carry through with an attack? Think about it. A war with China would not be confined to repulsing an invasion of Taiwan. It would be a global, not localized affair. Millions of casualties. Millions. A holocaust even without nuclear weapons--which, by the way, would almost certainly be employed because we don't have the conventional resources to undertake an invasion of the mainland. Further, a statement by the President declaring outright our intentions to defend Taiwan would throw the issue into the international arena, with the Chinese claiming intervention in their sovereignty, along with the resultant loss of international support because the President would show himself--at least in the eyes of marginal allies--as an utter dunderhead in diplomacy, ultimately heightening tensions to the breaking point with no real advantage gained.

One war at a time, thanks.
21 posted on 03/16/2005 10:12:26 PM PST by Rembrandt_fan
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To: Guht

I don't know. Even though we aren't as productive as we used to be, if we did have to go to war with China, and a lot of our resources were shifted to that war, things like the aid we give to other countries, the food we sell worldwide (we are still the largest supplier of food to the world, right?), and the sheer force of America gearing up for a new BIG war will make the rest of the world think "now do we want this to go on for a long time by sitting out, not getting anything from America, or should we jump in and get this over with ASAP?" I for one still have faith that America will be helped out, maybe just to get the world back to status quo.


22 posted on 03/16/2005 10:14:08 PM PST by Laz711 (Fear is the Mind Killer)
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior

But can we really afford a larger military right now? Will the markets allow for more spending. The problem now is the lack of revenue streams for government to function on. I don't see how a larger military can be achieved without raising taxes which simply put Washington is not willing to do. We can talk all day long about how great it would be if we could realize a libertarian/conservative government whose main concern was national defense, but I don't see that happening ever. People like their Medicare/Medicaid, and they like Social Security (I don't want this discussion to devolve into a discussion of Social Security it has been done in other forums).

Personally, I don't think that raising taxes for the expressed purpose of investing in the military is a bad thing. The money should translate to jobs in the private sector. That however does not solve the problem of people or more precisely lack therof. I do not see anyway around a draft on this one.

To the comment that 600 billion isn't all that much in treasuries. I completely disagree especially if it is taken in conjunction with a complete nationalization of all factories in the PRC. If you personally have enough liquidity to purchase them I congratulate you, however, from what I've seen of the most recent set of economic data, most Americans simply put do not have the savings to prop up our debt in that manner. If you follow the economic/business news then you are no doubt aware that even Warren Buffet is moving away from the dollar and into European markets, and the saying is where the Wizard goes Wall Street follows.

Free trade has been an unmitigated disaster for most Americans, and the national security angle of relocating our manufacturing capacity in China has not been covered in the MSM (am I surprised of course not).


23 posted on 03/16/2005 10:20:04 PM PST by Guht
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To: Guht
What worries me the most is that if China does decide to move decisively against the ROC then they will also know that we will in some way retaliate. Simple causality. However, the question then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries? It could theoretically bring our country to an economic standstill by completely devaluing our currency.

Our economy is the least of our worries when dealing with China.

24 posted on 03/17/2005 2:44:36 AM PST by Paul_Denton (The UN is UN-American! Get the UN out of the US and US out of the UN!)
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To: Guht
Let me put it this way, I am afraid of the corner we have put ourselves into

The most dangerous type of animal is a cornered one.

25 posted on 03/17/2005 2:52:30 AM PST by Paul_Denton (The UN is UN-American! Get the UN out of the US and US out of the UN!)
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To: Rembrandt_fan

We need to at least treat the ChiComs like Ronald Reagan treated the Societ Union. The threat of overwhelming force to keep the peace and if the ChiComs make a move. Well we would have that overwheliming force to crush them like an egg.


26 posted on 03/17/2005 2:54:10 AM PST by Paul_Denton (The UN is UN-American! Get the UN out of the US and US out of the UN!)
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To: All

Some of you are correct in some aspects, Europe would not get involved unless it was an all out-war, which I'm sure we all pray will never again happen.

A recent column was posted on a blog site called AtlasWide and it gave an interesting analysis of the snowballing China-Taiwan situation and how the world MIGHT line up.

It looks something like this.

Australia, the U.S., Japan and Taiwan are literally locked together by not only past agreements but more recent ones as well. We have recently "put muscle" into our relations with Japan after a 6 point talk with ambassadors of both parties (March 14).

Russia is essentially locked in with China now. Like this posting said (but it's not the first time it's been said), Russia either chooses the possibility of a future power with China, provided they can assume the position economically, loosing everything with the U.S. and our closer allies, OR they stay neutral. Well the latter is impossible, 3 months ago they dug themselves a hole with BRICs and have been taken up with China ever since. They promised to perform joint military maneuvers last year. Russia would never get involved in a conflict if it had no special interest for them. Their possible power with China MUST outweigh the cost of a war with the United States or else they wouldn't even attempt it; they are betting on a win.

North Korea might have to get involved if China asks for it, so don't count that out. In the case that NK does put a foot in, things will escalate back home with fear of a nuclear strike.

This isn't all of it but you can read the rest at atlaswide.blogspot.com


27 posted on 03/17/2005 8:53:51 AM PST by Semper_Volo
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To: Rembrandt_fan

Allowing the invasion of Taiwan by the PRC is unacceptable. After Taiwan, they will move outward to the other islands and territories that they claim. Even if we decided not to act, millions would die.


28 posted on 03/17/2005 8:57:25 AM PST by dmartin (Who Dares Wins)
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior
I tend to agree. Much better to "negotiate" from a position of strength - and we are stronger from a technological standpoint, but are woefully under powered in troop numbers. As you stated, we had to draw troops (including reserves and National Guard) just for our two "relatively small" fights in Afghanistan and Iraq. I'm not necessarily saying we need an army big enough to fight a real world war standing at all times - but we sure seem undermanned even with the current level of deployment.
29 posted on 03/17/2005 8:58:13 AM PST by TheBattman (Islam (and liberals)- the cult of Satan)
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To: Lokibob

To bad I am told old to join the military.


30 posted on 03/17/2005 8:59:15 AM PST by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM 53 : 1 The ( FOOL ) hath said in his heart , There is no GOD .)
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To: Lokibob
Contrast this with.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1364721/posts?page=20

Hate to say it, but I am beginning to think the war on terror is just the pregame scrimmage. If we get in a shooting match with China..
31 posted on 03/17/2005 9:59:58 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Prophet in the wilderness
To bad I am told old to join the military.

When we get into a fight with the PRC you will A. Be working in a defense industry B. Be a member of the military in some sort of capacity. C. Be dead. We don't have the population for a war like WWII to be fought with young men. It will be an all or nothing draft.

32 posted on 03/17/2005 10:07:42 AM PST by redgolum ("God is dead" -- Nietzsche. "Nietzsche is dead" -- God.)
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To: Guht
They can't unload 600 billion in US Treasuries, because they would collapse the market for those bonds and China would take huge financial losses on their sale. If they try to sell a fraction of that amount quickly to drive up interest rates and send us into recession, our Federal Reserve bank can always buy the bonds that China is selling and hold down interest rates. That would amount to monetizing some of China's debt, which is inflationary and would weaken the dollar, but our economy would keep going and China's attempt to slow down our economy would fail.

A lot of economic pundits forget that money is just numbers in bankers' computers. If the Fed needs to create money to buy up Chinese bond holdings, they can create all the money they need in seconds and stop any financial panic. This can be inflationary, but the key concept is that it's not so easy to collapse any financial market and generate panic when the US Fed can create money at will to buy into any market and stop a selling panic.

33 posted on 03/17/2005 10:27:15 AM PST by carl in alaska (Blog blog bloggin' on heaven's door.....Teddy's speechs are just one big snore.)
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To: Lokibob
I wonder who's side France and Germany and NATO are on?
They wanted a multipolar world, power speaking. Looks like they may get their way, only they won't be one of them.

The roster is starting to look like this to me...

The Good Guys: USA, Japan, Britain, Australia, Taiwan, India(maybe), S. Korea(maybe)

The Bad and Insane Guys: China, N. Korea(insane), Iran(insane), Russia

The Irrelevant: France, Germany, and the rest of NATO including Canada and excluding Britain
34 posted on 03/17/2005 10:43:20 AM PST by ml1954
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To: Guht

Intel has a plant in China now

If this thing does go real hot, I'd guess its high up on the targeting list.

We won't invade China, we'll bomb them back into the stone age and they know it. They can't win in an exchange of bombs and missiles, and they know it.

35 posted on 03/17/2005 11:06:41 AM PST by ml1954
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To: Guht
That could have potentially worked in a world where the world opinion of the US was favorable.

If it comes to it, think the rest of the world would choose a future dominated by China just because they don't like us much? I doubt it. If the sh*t hits the fan, they'll run to us for protection as fast as they can. Unfortunately, they won't be able to help us much.

36 posted on 03/17/2005 11:10:53 AM PST by ml1954
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To: redgolum
I thought you were going to say that we don't have the population to fight China head to head.
Still, I am willing to fight, or dead, or serve this country in some capacity if I can, if there is a major war with China.
37 posted on 03/17/2005 11:15:07 AM PST by Prophet in the wilderness (PSALM 53 : 1 The ( FOOL ) hath said in his heart , There is no GOD .)
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To: Laz711

I for one still have faith that America will be helped out, maybe just to get the world back to status quo.

I think you are right. I think the rest of the world would be terrified of a world dominated by China, which is what would happen if we get into a shooting war with them and do not prevail. If they can take us on and come out on top, they will be free to do what they want in the world. That is the Realpolitiks of the situation.

38 posted on 03/17/2005 11:15:37 AM PST by ml1954
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To: dmartin
I never said we should stand by and watch as the Chinese rape Taiwan. I do, however, support a waiting game right now. As I see it, the President is being careful not to give the Chinese a gift-wrapped causus belli to justify an invasion to the international community.

If a war does come, our navy alone--great as it is--cannot defeat the Chinese. For that, we need troops on the ground and planes in the air. It would take time to consolidate and focus our military for trouble in the Taiwan Strait--especially since Chinese planners almost certainly intend to consummate an invasion in a matter of days. The President, I think, is working desperately to wrap up our Iraq involvement as quickly as he can so that we can lower our troop commitment there in order to reallocate those forces where they are more needed. As emotionally and psychologically satisfying as publicly declaring our intention to militarily support Taiwan might be, it would serve no useful strategic purpose.

Finally, as I've asserted earlier, I think the driver behind the whole Taiwan invasion scare of the last several months has been the Chinese military. The Party, I think, would rather play for time until a more amenable American administration comes along. Why fight Bush when you can drink tea with Kerry (or his equivalent)?
39 posted on 03/17/2005 12:25:04 PM PST by Rembrandt_fan
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To: Lokibob

War with China is unthinkable. WalMart shoppers would rise up in rebellion.


40 posted on 03/17/2005 12:36:20 PM PST by DaoPian
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To: redgolum

I debated on joining the military after 9/11 but decided not to.

China, however. I'll be first in line. Serious, serious issue. Not to be taken lightly.


41 posted on 03/17/2005 12:51:16 PM PST by Crazieman (Islam. Religion of peace, and they'll kill you to prove it.)
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To: Rembrandt_fan

"Strangely, with no real evidence, I don't think the Party wants a war--at least not this soon, not yet. If the communists thought for a moment that the US and Japan would stand down while they invaded Taiwan, they would begin immediately."

Agreed with your speculation. Here is my speculation: Taiwan is the little ploy to start a big war. The real play is the Middle East. We could stop them just like Japan in WWII in the Pacific and the Chinese know this.

However, we get involved in Taiwan and China uses this as an excuse to attack our "allies" namely Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Their army could roll right through the Middle East and if they cut our supply of oil off, their would be nothing we could do to stop them, pending using nukes on them.


42 posted on 03/17/2005 1:13:31 PM PST by quantfive
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To: Guht

"What worries me the most is that if China does decide to move decisively against the ROC then they will also know that we will in some way retaliate. Simple causality. However, the question then becomes what happens if they decide to unload around 600 billion in US Treasuries? It could theoretically bring our country to an economic standstill by completely devaluing our currency."

Exactly. If/when they do this, we will see a depression here and will not be able to support our massive military. We may be able to protect ourselves in America but we certainly won't be able to prevent China from running amock in say, Kuwait or Saudi Arabia where we get our oil from.


43 posted on 03/17/2005 1:22:06 PM PST by quantfive
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior

"What do you guys think would happen if China attacked Taiwan? If we repelled an attack do you think we would go all the way and topple the communist regime? What do you guys think North Korea and Russia will do if war breaks out with China?"

I believe we will see North Korea attack South Korea within 6 months of China attacking Taiwan. Then I would say that Russia will attack a weak, socialite Europe. As one poster mentions, the Chinese can bankrupt us instantly if they want to, but not yet - they are patient and will build their military up for at least another 5-7 years in my opinion before they do this. Then, as we sit trying to keep things intact domestically, they will make their move. Right now we outgun their navy in all areas but they are quickly catching up. I also think they want the prestige of the Olympics in 2008 kind of like Hitler in pre-WWII.


44 posted on 03/17/2005 1:28:40 PM PST by quantfive
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To: ThermoNuclearWarrior

"Waiting and appeasing China is only allowing them to choose the perfect timing of an invasion and allowing them to become more powerful. Let's push them until they back down when it comes to Taiwan or attack while they are less prepared then they will be in the future."

Thats a good point but like everything else it's politics. Does Bush want to be the President blamed for a major depression and starting WWIII?


45 posted on 03/17/2005 1:33:09 PM PST by quantfive
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To: Lokibob

Time to sell 300-400 Thermo-Nuclear warheads and intermediate range missles to Taiwan.


46 posted on 03/17/2005 1:40:14 PM PST by KingofQue
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To: Guht

those that would take the brunt haven't been as involved in
Iraq as the ground troops -- the subs and other carrier groups.


47 posted on 03/17/2005 1:41:09 PM PST by chilepepper (The map is not the territory -- Alfred Korzybski)
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To: Guht

"To the comment that 600 billion isn't all that much in treasuries. I completely disagree especially if it is taken in conjunction with a complete nationalization of all factories in the PRC. If you personally have enough liquidity to purchase them I congratulate you, however, from what I've seen of the most recent set of economic data, most Americans simply put do not have the savings to prop up our debt in that manner. If you follow the economic/business news then you are no doubt aware that even Warren Buffet is moving away from the dollar and into European markets, and the saying is where the Wizard goes Wall Street follows.

Free trade has been an unmitigated disaster for most Americans, and the national security angle of relocating our manufacturing capacity in China has not been covered in the MSM (am I surprised of course not)."

Good points but Warren Buffet didn't exactly please his investors this year with almost nil movement of their funds.
The real bad news is oil. After 9/11 we should have dumped 100 billion dollars into building massive synthetic oil plants and ethenol conversion facilities. Because with our own energy independance, we can overcome anything. Without it, recovering indeed will take decades and you can be sure China and Russia will own 1/2 the globe by then.


48 posted on 03/17/2005 1:42:26 PM PST by quantfive
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To: quantfive

I tend to think that, to the Chinese, Taiwan is an end of itself, although an invasion of the island might have a broader aim. Who can know with any certainty what the Chinese intend? Such an assault would certainly have a global ripple. Any opponent would want to disrupt our economy as much as possible, and oil is a notorious Achilles heel for the US. I disagree, however, that the Chinese would find a Middle Eastern adventure the stroll through the park you describe. It is easier to sink tankers to disrupt our oil supply than it is to send ground forces rampaging through thousands of miles of hostile desert.


49 posted on 03/17/2005 1:43:47 PM PST by Rembrandt_fan
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To: Guht

Any war with Red China will not be a land war on mainland China.


50 posted on 03/17/2005 1:45:00 PM PST by KingofQue
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