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"Super volcano" could dwarf Indonesia's earthquake catastrophes (4/2/05)
Agence France-Presse ^ | April 2, 2005 | AFP

Posted on 04/02/2005 6:31:22 PM PST by AntiGuv

SYDNEY (AFP) - As Indonesians struggled to recover from the second deadly earthquake to strike them in three months, an Australian expert warned the country faced the prospect of a "super volcano" eruption that would dwarf all previous catastrophes.

Professor Ray Cas of Monash University's School of Geosciences said the world's biggest super volcano was Lake Toba, on Indonesia's island of Sumatra, site of both the recent massive earthquakes.

Cas told Australian media Friday that Toba sits on a faultline running down the middle of Sumatra -- just where some seismologists say a third earthquake might strike following the 9.0 magnitude quake on December 26 and Monday's 8.7 temblor.

Those quakes occurred along faultlines running just off Sumatra's west coast and created seismological stresses which could hasten an eruption.

Cas said Toba last erupted 73,000 years ago in an event so massive that it altered the entire world's climate.

"The eruption released 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of ash and rock debris into the atmosphere, much of it as fine ash which blocked out solar radiation, kicking the world back into an ice age," he said.

The scientist said super volcanos represented the greatest potential hazard on earth, "the only greater threat being an asteroid impact from space".

"A super volcano will definitely erupt," he said.

"It could be in a few, 50 or another 1000 years but sooner or later one is going to go off."

Other super volcanos are found in Italy, South America, the United States and New Zealand -- where Mount Taupo could be ready for eruption.

"It has a big eruption every 2,000 years, and it last erupted about 2,000 years ago," Cas said.

The potential death toll from a super volcano eruption "could reach the hundreds of thousands to millions and there are serious implications on climate, weather and viability of food production," Cas said.

"The big problem is a lot of the volcanoes that potentially could erupt are perhaps not monitored to the degree that they should be, and of course we learnt that lesson from the Boxing Day tsunami disaster," he said.


TOPICS: Extended News; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: archaeology; callingartbell; catastrophism; ggg; godsgravesglyphs; history; iceage; indonesia; junkscience; supervolcano
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1 posted on 04/02/2005 6:31:22 PM PST by AntiGuv
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To: blam; SunkenCiv

ping! I seem to recall you two are interested in supervolcanos.


2 posted on 04/02/2005 6:32:01 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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To: AntiGuv

50 years, 1000 years, sometime in the future...well, that really pinned it down.


3 posted on 04/02/2005 6:36:03 PM PST by Founding Father (Another pearl of wisdom from my imaginary mind.)
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To: AntiGuv

Note to self: Do *not* invite this guy to a party!


4 posted on 04/02/2005 6:37:46 PM PST by Paloma_55
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To: AntiGuv
"The big problem is a lot of the volcanoes that potentially could erupt are perhaps not monitored to the degree that they should be, and of course we learnt that lesson from the Boxing Day tsunami disaster," he said.

"Let's Blame The USA!"™®

5 posted on 04/02/2005 6:39:16 PM PST by solitas (So what if I support a platform that has fewer flaws than yours? 'Mystic' dual 500 G4's, OSX.3.7)
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To: Founding Father
"50 years, 1000 years, sometime in the future...well, that really pinned it down."

Aren't all things that haven't happend yet said to be in the "Furture"?

Should I start building my bomb shelter or nor?

6 posted on 04/02/2005 6:42:02 PM PST by Tom602 (Democrats: Against the death penalty for convicted murderers and for killing the unborn & disabled.)
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To: solitas

The countries that are at risk should fund something like this.


7 posted on 04/02/2005 6:45:07 PM PST by KingofQue
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To: AntiGuv
Unless the Yahoo! TV guide is wrong, the Discovery Channel will be airing a documentary about supervolcanos.

If it's the one I remember, it deals primarily with the supervolcano under Yellowstone, but also describes the Toba eruption, and explains that some geneticists believe Toba very nearly caused the extinction of the human race - as few as 5,000 humans may have survived the climate change, etc.

Yahoo! TV lists it as scheduled for April 10, at 8:00 P.M EST, with a repeat at 11:00 P.M. EST.
8 posted on 04/02/2005 6:45:51 PM PST by holymoly ("A lot" is TWO words.)
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To: Founding Father
1) 50 years,
2) 1000 years,
3) sometime in the future...
4) or not at all...

Duuuhh..
"scientists"... (Eddie Murphy laugh)...

9 posted on 04/02/2005 6:45:56 PM PST by hosepipe (This propaganda has been ok'ed by me to included some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: holymoly

It's more of a dramatization, but hopefully with at least some attempt to incorporate actual science, unlike disastrous jokes like the "10.5" miniseries.


10 posted on 04/02/2005 6:46:44 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: AntiGuv

If AFP told me the sun would come up tomorrow, I would worry until I saw the dawn....


11 posted on 04/02/2005 6:47:26 PM PST by Cogadh na Sith (Steel Bonnets Over the Border)
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To: AntiGuv
"Cas said Toba last erupted 73,000 years ago in an event so massive that it altered the entire world's climate."

Damn. Didn't know volcanoes could drive!

12 posted on 04/02/2005 6:52:20 PM PST by Uncle Miltie (Impotent [birthrates] Lazy [unemployment %] Cowardly [Militarily Unprepared] Euroweenies!)
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To: AntiGuv

yawn!!!


13 posted on 04/02/2005 7:00:13 PM PST by Gatϊn(CraigIsaMangoTreeLawyer)
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To: AntiGuv

"I kept telling them they were doomed, but would they listen? Nooooo!"

14 posted on 04/02/2005 7:00:23 PM PST by WestVirginiaRebel (Carnac: A siren, a baby and a liberal. Answer: Name three things that whine.)
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To: hosepipe

#4 is not an option. There is no doubt that a supervolcano will erupt again at some time in the future.


15 posted on 04/02/2005 7:01:37 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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To: AntiGuv

WE'RE ALL GONNA DIEEEEEEEEEEE!!! [/sarcasm]


16 posted on 04/02/2005 7:01:47 PM PST by 4mycountry ("No, Samus, prioritize! Getting off of an exploding ship is more important than fighting a dragon!")
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To: hosepipe
One of these super-volcanos erupts on average every 50,000 years or so. Any of them will end civilization, either Toba, or Yellowstone, or Mammoth Mountain in California, or dozens of others.

At 50k years vs. 20 million for an asteriod to hit, this threat is 400 times as likely to end the good times. Also, of course, we're in one of the brief inter-glaciation stages in the Ice Ages that have dominated the earth for 1 to 3 million years. (Eight in the last 750k years). We just don't know how lucky we've been or how tenuous civilization is.

17 posted on 04/02/2005 7:06:45 PM PST by DJtex (;)
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To: AntiGuv
Toba hasn't so much as burped in recorded history and is now a lake. Contrast this with Krakatoa, which blew itself up in 1883, creating the loudest sound in human memory (heard 3,000 miles away...literally). A new island (Anak Krakatoa) began appearing in 1927 and erupts every year. It's now over 600 feet tall, a quarter the original height of Krakatoa.

-Eric

18 posted on 04/02/2005 7:11:57 PM PST by E Rocc
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To: AntiGuv
I spent two and a half months with my girlfriend based in Tuk Tuk, Danau Toba in late 1998/early 1999. It is a beautiful place. Signs of the volcanic caldera are everywhere, The Batak people have stories about the power of volcanoes.
19 posted on 04/02/2005 7:17:09 PM PST by Red Sea Swimmer (Tisha5765Bav)
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To: holymoly

I am looking forward to the Discovery Channel show about super volcanoes. Looks like it is primarily about Yellowstone. My Tivo has already been programmed to record that.


20 posted on 04/02/2005 7:19:23 PM PST by faq
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To: Tom602
Should I start building my bomb shelter or nor?

Bomb shelter? The problem is food. The last year without a summer due to volcanic eruption was 1816. Americans didn't starve, although in some parts of the world lots of people did. Is there enough cereal grain warehoused to get us through another one? I hope so.

21 posted on 04/02/2005 7:20:56 PM PST by Steve Eisenberg
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To: DJtex

There are twelve more or less 'confirmed' supervolcanos worldwide: four in the lower 48 (WY, CA, OR, NM); one in Alaska; two in Japan; and one each in Indonesia, Italy, New Zealand, Australia, and Ecuador. There's also evidence of possible supervolcanos beneath Guatemala, Vanuatu (in the South Pacific), the Philippines, Papua New Guinea, and under Loch Ness in Scotland.


22 posted on 04/02/2005 7:27:47 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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To: DJtex
One of these super-volcanos erupts on average every 50,000 years or so. Any of them will end civilization, either Toba, or Yellowstone, or Mammoth Mountain in California, or dozens of others.

End civilization? What they will do is lower temperatures a fair amount for a couple years. If we have a couple years worth of rice and wheat saved up, civilization should barely burp except in the area of the volcano.

23 posted on 04/02/2005 7:28:01 PM PST by Steve Eisenberg
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To: AntiGuv
I predict that within the next 100 years...over 10 billion people will die!

Just imagine how incredible that will be.

10 Billion people dead...where the heck are we going to bury all of them?

24 posted on 04/02/2005 7:29:42 PM PST by Radioactive (I'm on the radio..so I'm radioactive)
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To: AntiGuv
As Indonesians struggled to recover from the second deadly earthquake to strike them in three months, an Australian expert warned the country faced the prospect of a "super volcano" eruption that would dwarf all previous catastrophes.

Soooo Indonesia how's the Muslim Religion treating you?

25 posted on 04/02/2005 7:31:21 PM PST by Mike Darancette (MESOCONS FOR RICE '08)
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To: Mike Darancette
Soooo Indonesia how's the Muslim Religion treating you?

Basically all the damage from the last quake was on Nias Island, which is 95% Christian.

26 posted on 04/02/2005 7:39:22 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: AntiGuv
under Loch Ness in Scotland.

I'm aware of the Supervolcano candidates in all the other areas you list, but the only reference to a Supervolcano under Loch Ness on the internet comes from a couple unsourced assertions on worthless nutty Apocalyptikook sites; can you provide a legitimate source for that assertion?

Interestingly nobody has actually defined a supervolcano or attempted to rigorously list them yet; there is a paper coming out the Bulletin of Volcanology soon that seems like it will do so, though.

27 posted on 04/02/2005 7:44:09 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: AntiGuv

Dont worry, the greenies will blame the eruption of a super volcano on either the US not signing Kyoto, or the Israelis, just for general purpose.


28 posted on 04/02/2005 7:46:11 PM PST by GreyFriar (3rd Armored Division -- Spearhead)
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To: Steve Eisenberg
Is there enough cereal grain warehoused to get us through another one?
Cereal? I'd better get me Lucky Charms!

29 posted on 04/02/2005 7:57:18 PM PST by DallasMike
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To: GreyFriar

Sooo, is OK to drive SUVs?

Yo, envirowakos, you are doomed! Fuggetabout global warmint! It is seriesly insignificant. Now stop yaping about it and start eating some meat!!!


30 posted on 04/02/2005 8:05:08 PM PST by Leo Carpathian (FReeeePeee!)
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To: Leo Carpathian

This could be HUGH!!!


And I MEAN HUGH!!!




(Sarcasm off)


31 posted on 04/02/2005 8:14:16 PM PST by Mr. Jazzy (It sucks to be liberal Democrat. Ask Monica Lewinski.)
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To: All
What's with all the supervolcanoe articles lately?

Not enough to report on in the Jacko trial?

32 posted on 04/02/2005 8:19:12 PM PST by uglybiker (A woman's most powerful weapon is a guy's imagination.)
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To: Steve Eisenberg
If we have a couple years worth of rice and wheat saved up,

We don't.

33 posted on 04/02/2005 8:31:33 PM PST by Mike Darancette (MESOCONS FOR RICE '08)
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To: DallasMike

And they're magically delicious!


34 posted on 04/02/2005 8:40:08 PM PST by dc-zoo
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To: solitas
So often you read about these super volcanoes and the lack of proper warning. Of what possible good would any warning be? 1. There's not a thing that any one or any country or combination of countries could do. 2. Where can you go to get away from these potential disasters? 3. Why bother worrying about them in the first place!
35 posted on 04/02/2005 8:44:07 PM PST by elephantlips
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To: Steve Eisenberg
Is there enough cereal grain warehoused to get us through another one?

I will go hang out with some of my Mormon friends.

36 posted on 04/02/2005 8:44:44 PM PST by conservative cat
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To: AntiGuv
The scientist said super volcanos represented the greatest potential hazard on earth, "the only greater threat being an asteroid impact from space".

(1)Where else does an asteroid come from but space? (2)I guess the sun falling from the sky wouldn't be considered a "great threat".

37 posted on 04/02/2005 8:47:35 PM PST by taxesareforever
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To: Strategerist
Here's something I tracked down: New research proves existence of super volcano beneath Loch Ness. I know this claims that it is "proven" but I'm not completely sold yet myself.
38 posted on 04/02/2005 9:15:05 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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To: Strategerist

PS. And even that source seems sketchy to me. I was listing all the ones I had seen speculation about, so maybe this shouldn't qualify.


39 posted on 04/02/2005 9:16:54 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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To: AntiGuv

Yeah, I saw that one...back up to the front page of that site; it's either a kook site, or a humor site.

"Professor Tom Plume" doesn't exist, and there is no "EU Volcanic Research Committee."

It's the equivalent of an India Daily article.

However, it seems the usual idiot apocalypse sites like armageddononline were easily duped by the story.

Much of Scotland and Northern Ireland is indeed volcanic in origin; however, the volcanism was several hundred million years ago when the Atlantic ocean opened up. Nothing remotely active recently.


40 posted on 04/02/2005 9:29:00 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: AntiGuv

All of the others are legitimate, I'm curious about exactly how many (recently active) ones there are myself, but while they have been much discussed there's no actual listing, yet. And people can't agree on how big something has to be to be a supervolcano.


41 posted on 04/02/2005 9:30:07 PM PST by Strategerist
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To: Mike Darancette

Speak for yourself.


42 posted on 04/02/2005 10:03:12 PM PST by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: conservative cat

Good plan. Mormons, as part of their theology, prepare for widespread disasters and famine.


43 posted on 04/02/2005 10:04:32 PM PST by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: Brad Cloven

"Cas said Toba last erupted 73,000 years ago in an event so massive that it altered the entire world's climate."


So much for global warming!


44 posted on 04/02/2005 10:12:02 PM PST by gc4nra ( this tag line protected by Kimber and the First Amendment (I voted for McClintock))
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To: E Rocc

Yeah, but when Toba blew, it was 10,000 times the size of the Krakatoa eruption.

And if the Yellowstone caldera goes up, it will be at least an order of magnitude larger than that. But, that hasn't kept me away from either the Yellowstone or the Toba calderas and both are among the most beautiful places on Earth.

Visit them while they are still there!


45 posted on 04/02/2005 10:30:13 PM PST by John Valentine
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Comment #46 Removed by Moderator

Comment #47 Removed by Moderator

To: clee1
Speak for yourself.

I would imagine that most of the so called civilized world is only a few missed meals away from Anarchy.

48 posted on 04/02/2005 11:08:15 PM PST by Mike Darancette (MESOCONS FOR RICE '08)
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To: Mike Darancette

Most of it, sure.

Some of us "nutballs" have been expecting revolution/famine/disaster for some time.

I live in a rural area 45 miles from a major city, in the hills, in an non- flood/earthquake/volcanism area.

If my family survives the initial upheaval (whatever it is) we will live. From food to shelter to protection, the smart policy is the Boy Scout motto: Be Prepared.


49 posted on 04/02/2005 11:29:45 PM PST by clee1 (We use 43 muscles to frown, 17 to smile, and 2 to pull a trigger. I'm lazy and I'm tired of smiling.)
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To: Strategerist

Thanks for the info! Hadn't occurred to me anyone would be motivated to make up a supervolcano..


50 posted on 04/02/2005 11:41:52 PM PST by AntiGuv (™)
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