Posted on 04/06/2005 4:59:47 AM PDT by sukhoi-30mki
Future Fighter Aircraft Requirements in Emerging Economies
Date Published: 29 Mar 2005
By Marko Lukovic
In the next ten years there will be a continued growth in purchases of new fighter aircraft. Outside North America and Western Europe (Eurofighter and/or JSF buyers), this will especially be the case in Asia where up to US$ 7 billion may be spent on new fighter programs. In Eastern Europe and Latin America several countries will be making important strategic decisions about the future of their air defence capability in the near future and this could lead to contracts potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars being offered to fighter aircraft manufacturers. It is therefore essential that the companies involved are kept aware of these opportunities in order to offer best possible conditions to potential buyers.
When it comes to Asia, the two most interesting cases are India and China, although more purchases are also to be expected by Malaysia and Indonesia. India expects to experience sustained economic growth in the next decade and wants to ensure that no threats to her security will endanger this growth and to reinforce her position as a global power. In line with that, there will be large-scale purchases in order to improve certain capabilities and replace equipment nearing the end of service life. US$ 3 billion were already spent on 140 new Su-30s that will be delivered in the period 2007-2017. Up to 130 medium sized fighter aircraft are needed to substitute obsolete MiG-21s, and a notable shift in procurement practices was made when India announced that Northrop Grumman F-16s are considered as strong contenders for this role. On top of that more new training, special mission aircraft and helicopters are needed for all three services. This will be followed by additional related contracts for MRO and Training and Simulation worth hundreds of millions of dollars.
China is much more of a mystery, as her defence procurement system is still completely opaque. It is known that they have been heavily modernising their Armed Forces over the past decade, but because of the shortage of reliable information it is not certain what kind of a mix of modernised domestically produced and imported equipment the Chinese have managed to acquire. It is now known that the purchases of Su-27s have stopped after about 120 were bought from Russia or licence-built in China. However, it is unclear whether this had happened because they wanted to build them with better avionics after the EU sanctions are lifted as expected, or because the domestically built J-10 fighter is considered to be a better value product in the long term. Chinese Defence industry is eagerly awaiting the final decision regarding the lifting of EU sanctions and will continue the procurement drive only after the necessary adjustments have been made to include new technologies they expect to buy, should the sanctions be lifted. The presentation by Richard Fisher, an expert on Chinese defence, at the IQPC Fighter Conference that will be held in London on 24 May will shed more light on these issues and will explain the current situation on doctrinal and technological level.
In Eastern Europe the countries currently in focus are Bulgaria and Romania. Both of these countries have been looking to buy western aircraft for over ten years in anticipation of joining NATO, but priority was given to re-equipping and reforming their Armies and Navies. Now that both countries are full NATO members, it seems that the moment to decide what aircraft to buy has finally arrived, and not before time as the current inventory has limited capability and is nearing the end of its lifecycle. Colonel Rumen Radev of the Bulgarian Air Force presenting next month in London, will for the first time elaborate on the exact requirements that Bulgaria has from the new fighters, as well as the scope of procurement. Also in London, Colonel Serghei Iason of the Romanian Air Force will speak about the major upgrades of MiG-21s his country made as an interim solution and about the long awaited transfer to new fighter types in the next three years. Judging by their procurement practices to date Romania is likely to purchase up to 50 second hand F-16s Block 15 or similar, which will then incrementally modernised as funds are made available, probably with Israeli assistance. The Bulgarian procurement decision is still very much open to speculation, and one hopes that Col. Radev will shed more light on which fighter aircraft might be selected for the next round, and more importantly on which one is the favourite.
In Latin America most countries have Air Forces that need replacement of a large portion of their inventory, but they are short funds. There are however a few notable exceptions such as Chile and Colombia. Chile has placed an order for 10 Block 52 F-16 and will be negotiating a second batch later this year. Whilst Colombian government is again on the offensive against the guerrillas and has just announced that it has set aside US$ 540 million for a purchase of 22 new combat aircraft. Twelve companies have already expressed interest to take part in the bidding process.
Although it is the most powerful country in the region and the largest economy, Brazil has cancelled the F-X fighter procurement project that was anyway plagued by delays due to lack of financing. Before cancellation, strongest contenders with highest offsets were SAAB Gripen, Dassault Mirage 2000 and Sukhoi Su-37. As most of Brazilian Air Force inventory has passed or is very near the end of service life, it is to be expected that 20-30 combat aircraft will be ordered in the next 5 years in a new procurement project. Otherwise the current airworthy fleet consisting of a handful of upgraded F-5BRs will be under a tremendous amount of pressure trying to control airspace over the Amazon and prevent flights transporting narcotics.
From the few examples listed above, it is clear that the procurement of fighter aircraft will continue steadily in the next decade in countries outside North America and Western Europe. There is a clear market shift towards the emerging regional and global powers such as China, India, Brazil and South Africa (Gripen) that want to go beyond pure self-defence and project that power. Other countries will also be buying but much less and over much longer periods. There is also a notable shift in procurement methodology, especially in India and Brazil where there is now much more of an emphasis on quality and value for money and procurement decisions are no longer based on purely political reasoning.
It should also be noted that procurement of fighter aircraft in countries mentioned above is relatively undeterred by the emergence of Unmanned Combat Airborne Vehicles (UCAVs) although some of them (especially China) have long running UAV programmes. In spite of the fact that the global defence requirements have changed beyond recognition in the past 20 years, the multirole capability has ensured that there will be a requirement for manned combat aircraft for at least another two decades.
Marko Lukovic is an aerospace and defence analyst at Frost & Sullivan in London Tel: +44 20 7343 8378
E-mail: Marko.Lukovic@frost.com
Ping!!
Israel may be leading the world in UAV's
Not exactly,A lot of nations are deep into UAVs & UCAVs.For eg,Israel is miles ahead of either Australia or Great Britain in UAVs & is infact bidding to supply to those nations!!!Israel,France,Germany,Sweden, & Russia are all developing UCAVs.Israel recently agreed to help India improve it's existing UAVs & develop newer ones.Id be the last to think China isn't serious on UAVs.The problem is that there is very little information about such Chinese programmes & whatever little is available,it won't probably be accurate.They already operate a few Israeli Harpy (anti-radar) drones & have a few short endurance systems somewhat like the US-Israeli Hunter.Id expect them to use increased cooperation with Russia & the EU to develop & deploy newer platforms.Afterall,UAV/UCAVs are the future.I've even read that India & Japan are doing research into UCAVs.
Yep,the US,France,Holland,India among others use Israeli systems.
One thing you can never expect from Israel is them to open up on any new systems they have.So even if they have an X-47 type system,you will hear of it only if it crashes on enemy territory!!They do invest in bigger UAVs like the 'Heron' Medium altitude,long endurance(MALE) Drone.The Heron reportedly has an endurance of over 40 hours(upto 52 hours) & has been purchased by France & India(for maritime operations).I've read that they use armed UAVs against terrorist targets,but there is little to no precise info on it.
Is air-power over-rated?
One retired Canadian army colonel certainly seeme to think so. He claimed in another forum that despite the huge amount of airpower used in the Yusoslav war, the US air-force could not and did not managed to destroy the Yugoslav army and its tank forces. In fact, the results are very very disappointing
Similarly, the USAF ,in "Operation Rolling Thunder" in the Vietnam War, dropped more tonnage of bombs than the whole of WW2 put together, and yet, could NOT destroy the "Ho Chi Min" trail. Despite daily bombing, the HO-Chi-Min trail still contimue to supply millions of tons of war materials to the Viet-Kong
Maybe we should have just had spec ops reverse the road signs?
True, There is a Rumsfeld Effect but it's subtle and oblique. By giving a green card for Space Weaponry. The Development of such is so Big that the USAF will have to search for cost savings in it's manned air system. It has no happened yet, but they will soon embrace unmanned technology, when they discover that their budget wont be enough to cover the new battle field.
I read that when a ground invasion was ruled out, the Yugoslavs stopped trying to keep their armor ready to fight and just hid everything in barns.
The idea behind combined arms is that defending against one (air bombardment) makes you vulnerable to the other (mechanized infantry and tanks).
Manned fighters still have value, but UCAV's offer new strategies such as swarms of unmanned vehicles in the thousands (armed with air to ground) on a first strike into enemy territory, as well as circling overhead for CAP while armed with air-to-air ordnance.
04 April 2005
Vought markets unmanned seaplane to US Navy
By MICHAEL SIRAK JDW Staff Reporter
Washington, DC
Vought Aircraft Industries has unveiled a concept that the company says is unique in today's burgeoning realm of pilotless aircraft - an armed unmanned seaplane, dubbed Kingfisher II.
The Kingfisher II could gather intelligence, relay communications, hunt for submarines and support special operations forces, according to the company. It could also deploy unmanned underwater vehicles to counter mines and attack swarming boats with missiles and bombs.
I read somewhere that General Atomics is toying with the the idea of an enhanced turbofan powered variant of the Predator,so that it becomes more competitive in the export market as well as for US forces.Any ideas about it??
UNMANNED AERIAL VEHICLES
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India has been engaged in indigenous development of UAV technology. It has completed work on the Nishant, a remotely piloted vehicle for battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance. A mini-UAV for reconnaissance, called Kapothaka and a pilotless target aircraft called Lakshua, have also been developed.
Nishant (Restless), the Remotely Piloted Vehicle conceived, designed and developed by the Aeronautical Development Establishment, is used for reconnaissance, target acquisition, target designation, damage assessment and electronic surveillance. Nishant, also known as pilotless training aircraft, is designed to perform discrete aerial reconnaissance, including target acquisition. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), which has developed Nishant, has designed comprehensive capabilities in all aspects of flight control design and engineering for UAVs. Work is being carried out at the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE) in Bangalore, an establishment of the DRDO.
Nishant is a field mobile system comprising air vehicles, ground control station, antenna tracking system, launcher and mission support vehicles. It meets the battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance needs of Indian Army. Each air vehicle carries a stabilized steerable platform with electro-optic payloads for surveillance, target acquisition and target tracking.
To meet the Army’s operational requirement of an RPV it was decided in September 1988 that Defence Research and Development Organisation would undertake the indigenous development of the RPV. The General Staff Qualitative Requirement (GSQR) was finalised by the Army in May 1990. In October 1991 Government sanctioned the project covering the design and development of RPV at a cost of Rs 34 crore (FE Rs 8 crore).
The Nishant remotely piloted vehicle [RPV] has undergone test flights at Kolar in Karnataka. The Nishant unmanned air vehicle has a range of at least 100 km. The 360 kg vehicle is designed for electronic intelligence and electro-optic reconnaissance for the Indian Army. Flying at 40 to 60 meters per second, Nishant is capable of battlefield surveillance with data sent in real time. The Aeronautics Development Establishment under the DRDO [Defense Research and Development Organization] is the lead laboratory for the Nishant's development and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is the production agency.
A single LRU integrated avionics package (IAP) has been developed to perform flight control, navigation and mission functions of Nishant aircraft. It consists of onboard encoder/decoder, GPS, flight control, mission and navigation modules. The digital flight control function is backed up by an analog stand-by module. IAP also manages automated safe launch, in-flight programmable way point navigation, and operation of payloads. It has been proven in more than 20 test flights of Nishant.
These development trials revealed deficiencies in minimum speed and endurance. More flights were planned in view of the technological problems encountered. Accordingly, a fully integrated prototype had yet to be made available to the users for their full fledged evaluation as of 1998.
Several configurations of ground stations have been developed for UAV programs to meet diverse needs of aerial targets and reconnaissance missions. Integrated telemetry, telecommand and tracking system designs have been realised. The mobile ground control station (GCS) incorporates a microprocessor-based encoder/decoder unit which interfaces with the jam-resistant data link to exchange command and data from Nishant. The air vehicle controller and the payload operator are provided with cues in the form of synthetic electronic displays which provide flight and trajectory data. A digital map display using GIS technology aids the controller to fly the UAV.
The Nishant RPV made its first test flight in 1995 and was scheduled to be inducted into the army by late 1996/97. However, production delays and technical snags led the army to look to Israeli-built Searchers to compensate for the delays. The indigenous development of two systems of the payload was yet to be taken up as of 1998. The import of forward looking infrared was delayed by six years on account of delays in the development of the gimbald payload assembly. The import option in respect of the infra red line scan was still under study.
Payload to be made available included forward looking infra red (FLIR) and infra red line scan (IRLS). The FLIR was to be mounted on gimbald payload assembly (GPA). As per the original projections, three sets each of FLIR and IRLS were to be imported in 1991 at an estimated cost of Rs 20 lakh and Rs 18 lakh respectively. Subsequently, these were to be replaced by indigenous version to be developed by a Defence research and development laboratory (R&D Lab). However, the indigenous development projects had not been entrusted to this R&D Lab as of November 1997. The DRDO stated in November 1997 that the indigenous development was proposed to be taken up only after necessary competence was built up.
A 35 mm Mini Pan Camera has been designed and developed at the CSIO, Chandigarh, which is suitable for use in low-speed aircraft operating at a low altitude, during daylight conditions. The Camera works on the principle of rotating mirror-lens-slit combination and moving film, resulting in recording of a much wider swath of the ground compared to frame strip camera. The design and development of this camera for Remotely Piloted Vehicle (RPV) was sponsored by the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), Bangalore. Three units of the camera have since been developed and submitted to ADE. The units were successfully interfaced with main Payload Interface Unit and subjected to prelaid environmental tests prescribed for Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV). One unit was mounted on `Nishant 3-4' and its performance during the flight trials was found to be satisfactory.
Two FLIRs were imported from Israel in May 1997 at a unit cost of Rs 82.50 lakh. The delay of six years in import of FLIR was stated to be due to delay in development of GPA based on which the FLIR requirements were to be finalised. The import of IRLS had not been finalised till June 1997 as the import options were still under study.
The development and evaluation under this project were planned in two standards i.e. MK-I and MK-II, in response to the priorities of operational roles indicated by the user. The MK-I standard was meant for priority operational roles such as day/night surveillance, reconnaissance and identification of targets for long range weapons. It was to be launched by Rocket Assisted Launcher (RAL) and recovered by Parachute System. The payloads include Day Light TV (DLTV) Laser Range Finder (LRF) and Mini Panoramic Camera. The MK-II standard was to be designed with enhanced capabilities such as Hydro Pneumatic Launcher (HPL) instead of RAL, Net Recovery System and additional Payloads such as Forwards Looking Infra Red (FLIR), Electronic Intelligence (ELINT), Communication Intelligence (COMINT), Laser Range Designator (LRD) and Infra Red Line Scan (IRLS).
In July 1999, for the first time the Indian army deployed its new Nishant UAV system in the fight against guerilla forces backed by Pakistan in Kashmir. Nishant, which had been developed for battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance needs of the Indian Army, was test flown again in early 2002. The Nishant is still in the final stages of trials before its induction into the Army. The army is presently using Israeli-made Searcher UAVs. The unduly long delay in the development of the Nishant forced the Indian army to sign a deal with Israel for the acquisition of the highly versatile Searcher-II Unmanned aircraft.
Specifications |
|
| length | |
| wing span | 21 feet |
| weight | 300 kg |
| payload | 45 kg |
| engine | German ALVIS AR-801 |
| endurance | five hours |
| altitude | up to 13,000 feet |
|
|||||||
| Lakshya - the Pilotless Target Aircraft | |||||||
|
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| Nishant | |||||||
|
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India has been engaged in indigenous development of UAV technology. It has completed work on the Nishant, a remotely piloted vehicle for battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance. A mini-UAV for reconnaissance, called Kapothaka and a pilotless target aircraft called Lakshua, have also been developed.
Nishant (Restless), the Remotely Piloted Vehicle conceived, designed and developed by the Aeronautical Development Establishment, is used for reconnaissance, target acquisition, target designation, damage assessment and electronic surveillance. Nishant, also known as pilotless training aircraft, is designed to perform discrete aerial reconnaissance, including target acquisition. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), which has developed Nishant, has designed comprehensive capabilities in all aspects of flight control design and engineering for UAVs. Work is being carried out at the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE) in Bangalore, an establishment of the DRDO.
Nishant is a field mobile system comprising air vehicles, ground control station, antenna tracking system, launcher and mission support vehicles. It meets the battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance needs of Indian Army. Each air vehicle carries a stabilized steerable platform with electro-optic payloads for surveillance, target acquisition and target tracking.
To meet the Army’s operational requirement of an RPV it was decided in September 1988 that Defence Research and Development Organisation would undertake the indigenous development of the RPV. The General Staff Qualitative Requirement (GSQR) was finalised by the Army in May 1990. In October 1991 Government sanctioned the project covering the design and development of RPV at a cost of Rs 34 crore (FE Rs 8 crore).
The Nishant remotely piloted vehicle [RPV] has undergone test flights at Kolar in Karnataka. The Nishant unmanned air vehicle has a range of at least 100 km. The 360 kg vehicle is designed for electronic intelligence and electro-optic reconnaissance for the Indian Army. Flying at 40 to 60 meters per second, Nishant is capable of battlefield surveillance with data sent in real time. The Aeronautics Development Establishment under the DRDO [Defense Research and Development Organization] is the lead laboratory for the Nishant's development and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is the production agency.
A single LRU integrated avionics package (IAP) has been developed to perform flight control, navigation and mission functions of Nishant aircraft. It consists of onboard encoder/decoder, GPS, flight control, mission and navigation modules. The digital flight control function is backed up by an analog stand-by module. IAP also manages automated safe launch, in-flight programmable way point navigation, and operation of payloads. It has been proven in more than 20 test flights of Nishant.
These development trials revealed deficiencies in minimum speed and endurance. More flights were planned in view of the technological problems encountered. Accordingly, a fully integrated prototype had yet to be made available to the users for their full fledged evaluation as of 1998.
Several configurations of ground stations have been developed for UAV programs to meet diverse needs of aerial targets and reconnaissance missions. Integrated telemetry, telecommand and tracking system designs have been realised. The mobile ground control station (GCS) incorporates a microprocessor-based encoder/decoder unit which interfaces with the jam-resistant data link to exchange command and data from Nishant. The air vehicle controller and the payload operator are provided with cues in the form of synthetic electronic displays which provide flight and trajectory data. A digital map display using GIS technology aids the controller to fly the UAV.
The Nishant RPV made its first test flight in 1995 and was scheduled to be inducted into the army by late 1996/97. However, production delays and technical snags led the army to look to Israeli-built Searchers to compensate for the delays. The indigenous development of two systems of the payload was yet to be taken up as of 1998. The import of forward looking infrared was delayed by six years on account of delays in the development of the gimbald payload assembly. The import option in respect of the infra red line scan was still under study.
Payload to be made available included forward looking infra red (FLIR) and infra red line scan (IRLS). The FLIR was to be mounted on gimbald payload assembly (GPA). As per the original projections, three sets each of FLIR and IRLS were to be imported in 1991 at an estimated cost of Rs 20 lakh and Rs 18 lakh respectively. Subsequently, these were to be replaced by indigenous version to be developed by a Defence research and development laboratory (R&D Lab). However, the indigenous development projects had not been entrusted to this R&D Lab as of November 1997. The DRDO stated in November 1997 that the indigenous development was proposed to be taken up only after necessary competence was built up.
A 35 mm Mini Pan Camera has been designed and developed at the CSIO, Chandigarh, which is suitable for use in low-speed aircraft operating at a low altitude, during daylight conditions. The Camera works on the principle of rotating mirror-lens-slit combination and moving film, resulting in recording of a much wider swath of the ground compared to frame strip camera. The design and development of this camera for Remotely Piloted Vehicle (RPV) was sponsored by the Aeronautical Development Establishment (ADE), Bangalore. Three units of the camera have since been developed and submitted to ADE. The units were successfully interfaced with main Payload Interface Unit and subjected to prelaid environmental tests prescribed for Unmanned Air Vehicle (UAV). One unit was mounted on `Nishant 3-4' and its performance during the flight trials was found to be satisfactory.
Two FLIRs were imported from Israel in May 1997 at a unit cost of Rs 82.50 lakh. The delay of six years in import of FLIR was stated to be due to delay in development of GPA based on which the FLIR requirements were to be finalised. The import of IRLS had not been finalised till June 1997 as the import options were still under study.
The development and evaluation under this project were planned in two standards i.e. MK-I and MK-II, in response to the priorities of operational roles indicated by the user. The MK-I standard was meant for priority operational roles such as day/night surveillance, reconnaissance and identification of targets for long range weapons. It was to be launched by Rocket Assisted Launcher (RAL) and recovered by Parachute System. The payloads include Day Light TV (DLTV) Laser Range Finder (LRF) and Mini Panoramic Camera. The MK-II standard was to be designed with enhanced capabilities such as Hydro Pneumatic Launcher (HPL) instead of RAL, Net Recovery System and additional Payloads such as Forwards Looking Infra Red (FLIR), Electronic Intelligence (ELINT), Communication Intelligence (COMINT), Laser Range Designator (LRD) and Infra Red Line Scan (IRLS).
In July 1999, for the first time the Indian army deployed its new Nishant UAV system in the fight against guerilla forces backed by Pakistan in Kashmir. Nishant, which had been developed for battlefield surveillance and reconnaissance needs of the Indian Army, was test flown again in early 2002. The Nishant is still in the final stages of trials before its induction into the Army. The army is presently using Israeli-made Searcher UAVs. The unduly long delay in the development of the Nishant forced the Indian army to sign a deal with Israel for the acquisition of the highly versatile Searcher-II Unmanned aircraft.
Specifications |
|
| length | |
| wing span | 21 feet |
| weight | 300 kg |
| payload | 45 kg |
| engine | German ALVIS AR-801 |
| endurance | five hours |
| altitude | up to 13,000 feet |
|
|||||||
| Lakshya - the Pilotless Target Aircraft | |||||||
|
|||||||
| Nishant | |||||||
|
|||||||
I'm sure with the level expertise here on FR most of you already noticed but seeing as I in Fort Worth where the F-16 is manufactured I must point out that it is Lockheed Martin not Northrup grumman that builds the F-16. Although I think the author has a valid idea, errors such as this cast doubt on his knowledge of the subject.
And my grammer casts doubt on me! Sorry that should be "Seeing as I live here in Fort Worth"
The real innovations aren't in the powerplant area right now. Frankly, any two-bit country can put a powerful engine into a remote-controlled aircraft.
But securing the data signal to and from the UCAV is an exciting area where not just everyone is able to compete (active weapons signal hacking/jamming will make computer hacking appear tame).
Likewise, programming a fully autonomous UCAV that needs no signal to and from the ground is another cool area of innovation.
That's the so-called Predator-C, meant to be in the
hunter-killer group. The hunter-kill class was created after they had already built the Predator-B, and while it meets the requirements, the competition not only meets the requirements, it exceeds them by 2x in payload (at least the Proteus does). So to keep from getting shut out of this market they are working on the "C" variant.
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