Posted on 04/11/2005 6:05:20 AM PDT by Pikamax
Conservatives surge ahead Liberals in freefall after devastating Gomery testimony
SUSAN DELACOURT AND ROBERT BENZIE OTTAWA AND TORONTO
OTTAWA - Conservative Leader Stephen Harper would become prime minister if an election were held today, according to a new Toronto Star poll.
The poll, conducted by EKOS Research Associates, shows the federal Liberals are in a dramatic freefall, even in their usual Ontario stronghold.
EKOS surveyed Canadians immediately following the release of devastating testimony last Thursday by former Montreal ad executive Jean Brault at the inquiry looking into the federal government's sponsorship scandal. Brault alleged gross misconduct in the Quebec wing of the federal Liberal party.
The pollster found that only 25 per cent of respondents nationwide would vote today for the Liberals, compared to 36.2 per cent for the Conservatives. The Liberals won a minority government with about 37 per cent of the vote in June 2004.
In Ontario, the Conservatives now lead with 40 per cent of the vote. The Liberals are at 33 per cent. Prime Minister Paul Martin escaped the indignity of losing the government last year when the party won 74 of the 106 seats in Ontario.
It's not just the sponsorship revelations dragging the federal Liberals down in Canada's biggest province, but also the so-called "fair-share" campaign that has pitted Premier Dalton McGuinty's provincial government against Martin's Liberals.
According to Frank Graves, president of EKOS, last week's scandal revelations only "lit the fuse, igniting resentment over fair-share treatment and ultimately producing a Liberal implosion in Ontario."
EKOS surveyed 1,125 Canadians, 18 years and older, between Thursday and Saturday.
Results from a survey of that size are considered accurate to within 2.9 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The national results gave the NDP 20.5 per cent of the vote; the Bloc Québécois, running in Quebec only, 12.6 per cent and the Green party 5 per cent.
Standings in the 308-seat House of Commons today are Liberals 133, Conservatives 99, Bloc 54 and NDP 19. There are two independents and one vacancy.
The results suggest the possibility of a spring election, although the opposition parties likely do not want to defeat the government until after the British Columbia election on May 17 and the visit by the Queen to Canada in late May.
And testimony at the sponsorship inquiry, headed by Justice John Gomery, also ends in late May.
For the Liberals, 25 per cent nationally represents a significant drop — 15 percentage points lower than they received in EKOS' last poll in February and 11 percentage points lower than the popular vote they gained in last June's federal election.
For the Tories, it's a 10-point climb since the February poll and seven percentage points higher than the 2004 popular vote nationwide.
Graves calls it "a breathtaking shift in what had been a stagnant and listless political landscape" — a shift, which seems to have taken place since Brault rocked the political world late last week with tales of forced kickbacks and payoffs to the Liberal party.
Those revelations, coming in a flood after a publication ban was lifted by Gomery last Thursday, have created an almost perfect climate for the Conservatives to form a minority government, the poll shows.
Graves said "there is little sense of any huge affection for the Conservatives, with voters caught between anger at the Liberals and only tepid enthusiasm for the only serious contender to form a government."
Though Harper and his Tories have been saying they will take their time to assess the scandal fallout and not be pushed by an election-eager Bloc Québécois, this new poll shows that temptation will be running high for the opposition to seize upon the mood quickly and bring down the shaky Liberal minority government.
"In the current volatile landscape, if there is to be another federal election in the near future, voters will likely consider where the broader electorate is before deciding where to throw their support," Graves said.
"I suspect most still prefer a minority government, but this time of a different political stripe."
The only obstacle to a snap spring vote, however, is that the poll also shows a high number of Canadians opposed to calling an election on the integrity issue.
A full 62 per cent of those polled thought an election shouldn't take place until a report is issued from Gomery later this year and another 21 per cent said the integrity issue wasn't important enough to provoke an election.
Only 15 per cent said an election would be a good idea, "to clear the air."
Martin has not yet issued any public statements in reply to last week's developments at the sponsorship inquiry.
This morning, he makes a brief appearance on the subject of medical waiting times and then he will be in the Commons to face the opposition during Question Period.
In Rome for the Pope's funeral when the news hit the stands last week, Martin has pointedly avoided reporters' queries and remained huddled out of public view all weekend.
Harper too, also in Rome for Friday's papal funeral, has taken a similar tack, though he did show up at a rally on Parliament Hill against same-sex marriage over the weekend.
His advisers are presumably also seeing internal polling showing a surge in Ontario, which raises some questions about why the Conservative leader would choose this timing to underline a stand that has not traditionally been popular in urban Ontario, where the party needs the votes.
But there's more bad news for Liberals in the poll on this front. By a ratio of two-to-one, Canadians are more likely to see Martin as part of the problem than as part of the solution to the sponsorship mess, the EKOS/Star poll shows.
A full 60 per cent of respondents said they saw the Prime Minister as "an essential part of the Liberal government since 1993 and now, as leader of the Liberal party, should be held accountable for the sponsorship mess."
Less than half that amount — 29 per cent — said Martin "had little to do with the sponsorship mess and deserves credit for calling the inquiry."
Liberals are now trailing in every region of the country, especially in Quebec and British Columbia, where the poll shows the party under threat of obliteration.
In Quebec, the Liberals have just 15 per cent support; in Alberta, only 10 per cent.
These were the types of low, low numbers that former prime minister Brian Mulroney's Conservative government received in polls in the months before it was dumped from office in 1993 and reduced to just two seats in the Commons.
When EKOS asked respondents to characterize their view of this current sponsorship controversy, more than a third — 34 per cent — called it "the worst government scandal that I can recall."
Only slightly more, 37 per cent, called it "no worse than other government scandals," reflecting what could be widespread cynicism with politics overall.
Another 22 per cent said this current scandal is worse than other government scandals, but not the worst they could recall. Only 4 per cent called it "not a particularly bad problem."
Gomery is probing all aspects of the $250-million sponsorship program, which funnelled $100 million to Liberal-friendly ad agencies, who often did little or no work.
The poll also shows that Canadians believe social issues, not "ethics and accountability," are by far the most important things going into the next election.
Least important are "fiscal issues," the poll showed.
I think there is a great, silent majority up there who have pretty much given up on politics. But if they don't re-engage, and quickly, they aren't going to have a country left.
The conservatives need some really great marketing.
I'm afraid that even if the Conservative party can win a plurality of seats in the next election and form a government that it will do little good. I don't know when the last time was that a minority government in Canada actually lasted out its term without being brought down by a non-confidence vote. And I can't see the Conservatives getting much support in creating a coalition from any of the other parties - the Liberals because they're the Conservative's natural rivals for power, and the NDP and Bloc because they're essentially far-left socialists - although they might support the Conservatives if they tried to implement some of the reforms long talked about by the Reform Party (Triple-E senate, some form of proportional representation, more free votes, etc). At least the NDP would actually benefit from some form of proportional representation, although the Bloc would probably be hurt by it. It'll be interesting if the Conservatives form a minority government, but I really think it'll share the same fate as Joe Clark's did, being brought down in very short order.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
What Canada needs is a leader like Margret Thatcher who will dare to dismantle Canada's crumbling socialist state and restore a true free market economy.
Yeah, but the Liberals themselves will certainly never do anything about it, and I'm not sure that a minority Conservative government would be able to do it. In fact, I'm not really sure how they would go about making such major changes to our electoral system. I really despair sometimes for the chances of ever getting any meaningfull political change in this country.
(Denny Crane: "Sometimes you can only look for answers from God and failing that... and Fox News".)
We need to face facts here. The Liberals have caused so much damage to our relationship that it's going to take years for the Americans to trust us again. At best, perhaps Americans will understand, that like them, we have a very vocal and insulting leftist presence in this country that continually gets to hold the microphone.
Then getting out the vote is what matters. In Canadian politics, the Liberlas and NDP split the left leaning vote. If you can get enough conservatives out, Conservative candidates will get elected.
Don't forget that the Bloc was founded by a group of Tory MPs who split when Meech Lake died. The party does lean left now but there are still some centrists there who could do business with the Tories.
has anyone seen this story on fox?
Is this story covered in the media in canada or is it like the MSM circling the waggons to protect the clintons?
I have a hard time believing the CBC would bite the hand that feeds it.
Proportional representation would be a disaster for freedom. It would concentrate even more power in the backrooms; right now the worst that happens to an MP who votes against the party is that he sits as an independent. Under PR, they can just drop him from the party list and his career is over.
That's correct. Playing the "moral values" card would probably at least guarantee a Conservative minority government (120 seats), but it would certainly not sell in Quebec, and it would be a tough sell in the big cities, so they would need to use it to get everything they can in rural and small-town English Canada, and the suburban areas as well.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.