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Democratic Strategists Issue Memo on Loss of Catholics
The Factis.org and Culture of Life Foundation ^ | April 12, 2005

Posted on 04/12/2005 2:43:56 PM PDT by ninenot

Culture & Cosmos

April 12, 2005 Volume 2, Number 36

Democratic Strategists Issue Memo on Loss of Catholics

A memo authored by a prominent Democratic strategy organization calls the decline in support of white Catholics for Democrats "striking" and "a big part of the 2004 election story." One of the analysis' key findings is that Catholic voters are becoming more pro-life which the authors called "a factor in the recent losses and one of the blockages for Democrats, at least in the Midwest." The data also reveals that young Catholics are more pro-life than their parents and that bishops who speak out against pro-abortion politicians help bolster the pro-life vote.

The abortion issue is particularly potent for a group called "Democratic defectors" who either identified themselves as Democrats or voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 but voted for President Bush in the last election. Among this group, "26 percent believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases, nearly three times the number for all Catholic Democrats."

The memo was issued by Democracy Corps, a research and tactical advice organization founded by Democrat strategy virtuosos James Carville, Stanley Greenberg and Bob Shrum. Titled "Reclaiming the White Catholic Vote," it is based on data from a nationwide survey of more than a 1,000 white Catholic voters. The decline in the white Catholic vote has been steady over the last decade. Clinton won it by seven percentage points; Al Gore lost it by seven points; and Sen. John Kerry lost it by 14 points. The data provided in the report provides a fascinating window into the much discussed Catholic vote and makes it clear Democrats are losing ground because of their stance on a range of cultural issues.

It turns out that one of the most contentious and visible issues in the 2004 election, the denial of the Eucharist to pro-abortion politicians, did not hurt the pro-life side as many said it would. The poll found that when white Catholics were asked whether or not they were more or less likely to vote for a Democrat that "is denied communion by the area's bishop for voting to support abortion rights" 49 percent said they were less likely while 33 percent said they were more likely.

The memo also made it clear that the abortion issue is not going away. "Although the pro-life position is strongest among seniors, Catholics current pro-life position does not appear likely to lessen with time. While middle-age Catholics lean toward keeping abortion legal, voters under 30 are more pro-life: 53 percent believe abortion should be illegal in most cases." The pro-life position could be a winning one for Democrats according to the study. Fifty-nine percent of white Catholics say they are more likely to support a Democratic candidate who is pro-life and 35 percent say they are less likely, giving a pro-life Democrat a 24 point advantage. Even on the East Coast where Catholics are less pro-life, a pro-life Democrat has a 12 point advantage over a pro-abortion candidate.

The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue by presenting themselves as one who "[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption." This common ground approach is reminiscent of a recent speech given by New York Senator and likely presidential candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in which she softened her approach to abortion by calling it a "tragic choice." In the speech she said faith-based abstinence should be embraced but also called on increased funding for "family planning services," a euphemism for contraception, abortifacients and abortions.


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: abortion; bobshrum; carville; catholic; catholiclist; catholicpoliticians; catholics; catholicvote; catholicvoter; democracycorps; electionpresident; elections; greenberg; jamescarville; rats; rattalkingpoints; schrum; stanleygreenberg; voting
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1 posted on 04/12/2005 2:43:58 PM PDT by ninenot
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To: american colleen; sinkspur; Salvation; CouncilofTrent; narses; arkady_renko; SMEDLEYBUTLER; ...

Specifically of interest is the fact that denying Communion to the CINO's actually DOES hurt the CINO's in the ballot box.


2 posted on 04/12/2005 2:45:24 PM PDT by ninenot (Minister of Membership, TomasTorquemadaGentlemen'sClub)
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To: ninenot

I am sure the Terri Schiavo tragedy will not help the Dems either.


3 posted on 04/12/2005 2:46:48 PM PDT by QQQQQ
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To: ninenot
This common ground approach is reminiscent of a recent speech given by New York Senator and likely presidential candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton,

Memo to Dems: You think it will be sufficient to talk about values and spin a new position on values. It won't. Values are funny things - you have to actually believe them and live them for them to have any merit to others. Otherwise, it's just hypocrisy.

And Hillary Clinton is the last person in the world you should be emulating, as she doesn't mean a damn word she's saying. Now or ever.

4 posted on 04/12/2005 2:47:17 PM PDT by dirtboy (Drooling moron since 1998...)
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To: ninenot

We will need to be VERY watchful now as more and more democRATS will be talking a more moderate stance on pro-life issues. They won't vote that way, just talk that way.


5 posted on 04/12/2005 2:47:43 PM PDT by phil1750 (Love like you've never been hurt;Dance like nobody's watching;PRAY like it's your last prayer)
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To: ninenot

Coming next a memo on loss of Latinos.
Then a memo on loss of women.
Then a memo on loss of blacks.
Then a memo on loss of Jews.
Then a memo on loss of Americans.

Finally a memo on how are party can survive as the party of the Islamists.


6 posted on 04/12/2005 2:48:44 PM PDT by Patrick1
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To: phil1750

Hillary's silence on Terri Schiavo, John Bolton, the pope and any other number of high profile issues indicates that she's going to play the centrist role.


7 posted on 04/12/2005 2:50:14 PM PDT by cripplecreek (I'm apathetic but really don't care.)
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To: ninenot
So rather than stick to their true morals, they will change them (or make it appear that they have changed their morals) in order to get (or fool) a few more people into voing for them, so they can again get power.

Is anyone going to be fooled by this? The dems will NOT change their core beliefs and morals, they will just try to hide those better.
8 posted on 04/12/2005 2:50:27 PM PDT by Fido969
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To: ninenot

Yes, but on that "common ground" there still lies a dead baby, and no amount of cleverly nuanced weasel-words can get around that.


9 posted on 04/12/2005 2:50:39 PM PDT by kittymyrib
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To: ninenot
The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue . . .,

. . . the notion of actually taking a principled stand on anything being totally out of the question.

10 posted on 04/12/2005 2:51:02 PM PDT by maryz
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To: ninenot

Heck, the Catholic Church in America can't even "keep" Catholics. If the Rats figure out how to do it, I hope they pass their secrets along to the U.S. Council of Bishops.


11 posted on 04/12/2005 2:52:17 PM PDT by Luddite Patent Counsel ("Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others." - Groucho Marx)
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To: maryz

zzzzzzinggg!!!


12 posted on 04/12/2005 2:53:29 PM PDT by ninenot (Minister of Membership, TomasTorquemadaGentlemen'sClub)
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To: phil1750

Being a catholic from midwest and 16 years of Catholic
education.....the Democrats make the mistake of taking
all religious individuals as easy prey for their
pseudo-kindred agenda. They lose people like me
because of their attitude, that was very evident with
the verbiage and superior attitude of their nominee,
Kerry along with the other Catholic- Ted Kennedy...
Catholics support Bush because he is closer to the
empathy of a Catholic than the Dem. nominne.. Jake


13 posted on 04/12/2005 2:54:03 PM PDT by sanjacjake
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To: ninenot

"The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue by presenting themselves as one who "[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption."

Is it possible to believe everything? The dems seem to think so.

I dislike both parties but will not vote for the democrats. I'd like to see a monarchy but guess that will have to wait on heavens own time.


14 posted on 04/12/2005 2:54:10 PM PDT by OpusatFR (Just because you put lipstick on a pig doesn't mean it smells any better.)
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To: dirtboy
And Hillary Clinton is the last person in the world you should be emulating, as she doesn't mean a damn word she's saying. Now or ever.

I beg to differ with you, friend. Hillary! means every word she says when it comes to wealth redistribution. I can't remember the exact words to a speech from last year, but it was basically, "we will have to take more from the rich to help the poor".

Other than that, I take everything else she says with a pound of salt.

15 posted on 04/12/2005 2:55:06 PM PDT by Night Hides Not
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To: ninenot
It turns out that one of the most contentious and visible issues in the 2004 election, the denial of the Eucharist to pro-abortion politicians, did not hurt the pro-life side as many said it would. The poll found that when white Catholics were asked whether or not they were more or less likely to vote for a Democrat that "is denied communion by the area's bishop for voting to support abortion rights" 49 percent said they were less likely while 33 percent said they were more likely.

Now, how can that be?

Weren't we assured, right here on this very website, by certain posters to remain nameless, that Apb. Burke and other bishops who insisted on enforcing canon law were going to end up helping the pro-abort politicians?

16 posted on 04/12/2005 2:57:32 PM PDT by B Knotts (Ioannes Paulus II, Requiescat in Pacem.)
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To: ninenot
Does anyone else remember the hand wringing by some pundits about efforts by the WH to reach out to Catholics? The reasoning went that the W campaign would never get the Catholic vote since Catholics don't vote as a block. Now we see that when a candidate espouses something close to Church doctrine on the life issue he wins. Will this cause the left to reevaluate their insistence that the decline in Church attendance is due to the Churches social teaching?

Never mind I know the answer.
17 posted on 04/12/2005 2:57:51 PM PDT by e5man_r_u? (A Man's mission: Build, Protect, Provide)
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To: ninenot
Bill Clinton lied to Catholics when he campaigned to make abortions "rare" and then did absolutely nothing about it. Lying and obfuscating about abortion won't work anymore - they're on to you, Dims.
18 posted on 04/12/2005 2:59:32 PM PDT by colorado tanker (The People Have Spoken)
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To: ninenot
It doesn't seem to me that the Dems are holding many cards on any social issue. I guess they will go with a strategy of muting their social and cultural positions while increasing the volume on the rest of their core convictions...just as soon as they discover a poll to instruct them on what those convictions are.
19 posted on 04/12/2005 3:00:49 PM PDT by Dolphy
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To: ninenot; NYer

for the ping list


20 posted on 04/12/2005 3:03:11 PM PDT by SaltyJoe (Forgive us our trespasses as we forgive those who trespass against us.)
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To: cripplecreek
She ain't gonna play until "the perfect act" is ready. She will begin to waver like "The Blue Bunny" aka JF Kerry as we go along to capture the people with "higher standards".

I believe they will let a Supreme Court Judge be seated. Then they can blame any future abortion decision on the Court and maintain it was in the best interest of the country as a whole, NOT to filibuster. Anyways, they sure as hell don't want the filibuster bit active IF they get the Whitehouse.

Let's face it. Hillary cares about no one except herself. If she cared about her daughter, she would have left the perv along time ago.

21 posted on 04/12/2005 3:03:36 PM PDT by Sacajaweau (God Bless Our Troops!!)
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To: ninenot

Memo's purpose: How best can we fool these Catholics at the next election, much as we despise them and their so-called "God"?"


22 posted on 04/12/2005 3:05:29 PM PDT by FormerACLUmember (Honoring Saint Jude's assistance every day.)
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To: ninenot

American Catholics, sad to say, are by and large pro abortion. I think they are fairly democratic on balance, but the dems lose them when they get extreme on the issue.

Dems lose many Catholics when they overstate their support of abortion - against parental notification for minors seeking abortion, and against the ban on partial birth abortion.


23 posted on 04/12/2005 3:06:19 PM PDT by HitmanLV
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To: phil1750
They won't vote that way, just talk that way.

President Clinton's screed was "Safe Legal and Rare"

24 posted on 04/12/2005 3:07:20 PM PDT by itsahoot (If Judge Greer can run America then I guess just about anyone with a spine could do the same.)
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To: ninenot
It turns out that one of the most contentious and visible issues in the 2004 election, the denial of the Eucharist to pro-abortion politicians, did not hurt the pro-life side as many said it would.
That became obvious to us during the election. The Eucharist issue focused attention on the candidates abortion stances. The result was that the pro-life Catholics realized how bad the Democratic candidates were. Had that attention not been focused on the candidate's abortion stances, many voters might have ignorantly or foolishly pulled the lever for the Dem., thinking he wasn't so bad because he "seemed" pro-life when he talked to them. When the Bishops talked about denying the Eucharist, the naive among us started to realize that no matter how nice the guy sounded on abortion, the reality was that they voted for evil, and that the words were empty.

I'm convinced that the Eucharist issue could have hurt pro-lifers had it been pushed hard all the way to the conclusion of excommunication (during an election), but that its limited press play actually helped us, as it was raised, and then largely dropped, but the focus on abortion was still there.

The poll found that when white Catholics were asked whether or not they were more or less likely to vote for a Democrat that "is denied communion by the area's bishop for voting to support abortion rights" 49 percent said they were less likely while 33 percent said they were more likely.
These results are nearly meaningless. Obviously 82% (49+33) of the Catholics were not swing voters who could be moved by a Bishop talking about denying the Eucharist. Obviously that isn't the case, so we are including quite a few people who are ALWAYS going to vote for one side or the other. These people may say the Bishop's actions make them more likely to vote a particular way, but in reality they are pretty well along the way already. What would be valuable is to poll only those who are swing voters on this question. That would tell us

Also, keep in mind that the poll group's population was already heavily weighted against voting for the pro-abortion candidate, so seeing 49% say "less likely" here is rather unsurprising.

The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue by presenting themselves as one who "[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption."
Maybe I missed things, but I thought this had been their approach for the last decade. I don't think it will work.

I'm pretty sure Kerry tried real hard to tell Catholics he "personally opposed" abortion.

patent

25 posted on 04/12/2005 3:08:33 PM PDT by patent (A baby is God's opinion that life should go e focused attention on the candidates aon. Carl Sandburg)
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To: B Knotts; sinkspur
by certain posters to remain nameless, that Apb. Burke and other bishops who insisted on enforcing canon law were going to end up helping the pro-abort politicians?

I recall one in particular, who was emphatic---very emphatic---that the orthodox Bishops were effectively going to not ONLY create a "sympathy vote," but ALSO alienate Catholics.

IIRC, the emphatic noises came from a dusty little cattle-stop near Dallas.

He's on my pinglist.

26 posted on 04/12/2005 3:09:15 PM PDT by ninenot (Minister of Membership, TomasTorquemadaGentlemen'sClub)
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To: e5man_r_u?

Well, I still think that using Deal Hudson as the vehicle of choice to get the message to Catholics was one of the dumber moves by ol' Karl--

But then, nobody's perfect.


27 posted on 04/12/2005 3:10:38 PM PDT by ninenot (Minister of Membership, TomasTorquemadaGentlemen'sClub)
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To: Patrick1

That's why they want ex-cons to get the vote..it's their fastest growing demographic.


28 posted on 04/12/2005 3:10:55 PM PDT by ken5050 (The Dem party is as dead as the NHL)
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To: ninenot

>>>>Specifically of interest is the fact that denying Communion to the CINO's actually DOES hurt the CINO's in the ballot box.

Not proven based on the data here. It didn't hurt this time. FWIW, I spent alot of time looking at polling data during the election. I didn't think it was hurting then either, but I also have never had good data on what denying the Eucharist does to actual swing voters. For the data to be meaningful you need to remove voters whose minds were long ago made up, and measure the swing voters.

That said, I don't care what it does at the polls, I think that Communion should be denied.

patent


29 posted on 04/12/2005 3:11:20 PM PDT by patent (A baby is God's opinion that life should go e focused attention on the candidates aon. Carl Sandburg)
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To: ninenot

P.S., thanks for posting this, very intersting.

patent


30 posted on 04/12/2005 3:11:59 PM PDT by patent (A baby is God's opinion that life should go e focused attention on the candidates aon. Carl Sandburg)
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To: ninenot

Cottage Cheese Hillary's voting record for abortion is 100%, as reported by her friends at NARAL. Now, will CNN report that? Or will they talk about how she's now a "centrist?" (like John Kerry and Howard Dean were!).


31 posted on 04/12/2005 3:13:20 PM PDT by GianniV
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To: Fido969
Is anyone going to be fooled by this?

I doubt it.

They already have the depraved, criminal, ignorant, feminazi, homo, race baiting, jewish, old farts vote all sewn up.

The vote that scares me for the future is young people since that is the only way they can grow in numbers.

32 posted on 04/12/2005 3:13:36 PM PDT by evad
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To: HitmanNY
American Catholics, sad to say, are by and large pro abortion.

I wonder. On a lot of polls (which, by the way, reflect declining support for abortion overall), I would bet a lot of people "agree" with keeping it legal because they've been conned into thinking that's the respectable position. Every so often you hear or read of someone who says, "Well, I would never have one myself because I think it's wrong, but . . . ."

33 posted on 04/12/2005 3:14:22 PM PDT by maryz
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To: HitmanNY

>>>>American Catholics, sad to say, are by and large pro abortion.

No they aren't.

patent


34 posted on 04/12/2005 3:15:55 PM PDT by patent (A baby is God's opinion that life should go e focused attention on the candidates aon. Carl Sandburg)
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To: ninenot
He's on my pinglist.

LOL

35 posted on 04/12/2005 3:16:02 PM PDT by B Knotts (Ioannes Paulus II, Requiescat in Pacem.)
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To: maryz

I know many self-identified Catholics who aren't notably impressed by church teaching. They have been democratic voters for a long time. They know what the dems stand for - they are in that fold.

I also don't believe the rhetoric - 'I would never have one, but...' The truth is that there have been almost 40million abortions in the last 30 years, and about 1.4 million abortions a year. Clearly to me some of those 'I'd never do it myself' women are getting abortions.

To me, I think many people think abortion is wrong, but they can see themselves in an inconvenient or inexplicable pregnancy. It's easier for them to get an abortion quietly rather than upset their status quo (angering or alienating a boyfriend, husband, whatever who clearly isn't the father, for example).

While they know its wrong, they like having it there. Sorry, that's the way I see it - 40,000,000 abortions and 1.4million a year can't all be confused teens, you know.


36 posted on 04/12/2005 3:20:24 PM PDT by HitmanLV
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To: patent
"[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption."

IIRC, this is precisely the position HRC has taken, recently, and loudly.

Co-incidence, I suppose?

37 posted on 04/12/2005 3:21:27 PM PDT by ninenot (Minister of Membership, TomasTorquemadaGentlemen'sClub)
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To: ninenot; american colleen; Lady In Blue; Salvation; narses; SMEDLEYBUTLER; redhead; ...
Know your enemy, bump!

Catholic Ping
Please freepmail me if you want on/off this list


38 posted on 04/12/2005 3:21:39 PM PDT by NYer ("America needs much prayer, lest it lose its soul." John Paul II)
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To: ninenot

Stanley Greenberg is probably the best the Demonrats have. It is likely that he invented the term "pro-choice" via his focus groups as the best marketing tool to make baby slaughter alomost vaguely tolerable. If he is warning the Demonrats on abortion, surrender by them may be in sight. Won't that be a lovely catfight?????


39 posted on 04/12/2005 3:21:42 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline of the Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Club)
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To: HitmanNY
I know many self-identified Catholics who aren't notably impressed by church teaching.

A confusing element in polls is that the fallen away who haven't darkened a church door in 20 years continue to self-identify as Catholic. (This doesn't even count the outright heretics.)

40 posted on 04/12/2005 3:22:52 PM PDT by maryz
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To: patent

Dems consistently win the Catholic vote. Exit polls have shown that Catholics voted mostly for Bill Clinton in ’92 and ’96, and Al Gore by the slight margin of 2 percentage points over Republican George W. Bush (49% to 47%) in 2000.

Many blue states have large pockets of catholics (Mass, NY, IL) and local politics there are not notably conservative at all. Clearly many nominal catholics support democrats in office, and that means pursuing a pro-choice agenda.

Many Catholics are quietly pro choice and think it's no big deal. I think they are wrong, but I don't think that makes the phenomenon untrue.


41 posted on 04/12/2005 3:25:10 PM PDT by HitmanLV
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To: Patrick1
Finally a memo on how are party can survive as the party of the Islamists.

Yeah, because they will kill anyone who votes differently (just look at CAIR).

42 posted on 04/12/2005 3:25:12 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (First you get the sugar, then you get the power, then you get the women (HJ Simpson))
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To: ninenot

>>>>IIRC, this is precisely the position HRC has taken, recently, and loudly.

It is, but its exactly like the other "new" democratic positions. Its a retread, a tired, worn out retread that has wholly failed to gain them any traction. They need a new way of lying to us, if they hope to win.

patent


43 posted on 04/12/2005 3:25:46 PM PDT by patent (A baby is God's opinion that life should go e focused attention on the candidates aon. Carl Sandburg)
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To: maryz

I agree with you. The fact remains that we have a lot of self identified Catholics who aren't very Catholic. Many of those are pro abortion. Sad but true.


44 posted on 04/12/2005 3:26:10 PM PDT by HitmanLV
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To: Night Hides Not
I can't remember the exact words to a speech from last year, but it was basically, "we will have to take more from the rich to help the poor".

"You'll have to make sacrifices for the common good".

She also used the word "collective" in the same speech.

45 posted on 04/12/2005 3:27:40 PM PDT by Sonny M ("oderint dum metuant")
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To: Patrick1

great post!


46 posted on 04/12/2005 3:27:48 PM PDT by proust (“All that is needed for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing.”--Edmund Burke)
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To: ninenot
This is the issue that hurts me the most. How so many so called Catholics can be for abortion. I am Catholic, and I know many who are for abortion. This makes me sick. The saying goes You cant be Catholic and pro-choice is so true.The recent passing of our Holy Father should only raise our level of dealing with this issue. Democrats are only in it for votes, say anything do anything as long as you get the vote. How many more will die because of this warped way of thinking?
47 posted on 04/12/2005 3:29:22 PM PDT by Duke Wayne
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To: HitmanNY; ninenot; NYer
When Stanley reenberg tells the Demonrats that Clintin won tye Catholic vote by 7 points, Gore lost it by 7 and Kerry lost it by 14 (and is allegedly a Catholic), AND the Demonrats paid the high fees of Carville, Greenberg and Shrum to study the subject, you can take it to the bank that the Demonrats are facing a situation in which Catholics are fleeing the Demonratic horror at record speed. Catholics have seldom provided a majority of their votes to the GOP but are now doing so and the momentum of the party switch is strong.

Two more points:

First: Most Mexicans (America's fastest growing minority) crossing the border are Catholic and are most certainly not social leftists, abortion-lovers, lavender sympathizers, et al.

Second: If you factor out the non-church goers (about half of those considering themselves Catholic), the actually Catholic (i.e. church-going) vote is very heavily Republican. Bear in mind that in the lifetime of baby boomers, the Catholic Church USED to be known as "The Democratic Party at prayer."

48 posted on 04/12/2005 3:30:31 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline of the Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Club)
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To: HitmanNY; ninenot; NYer
When Stanley reenberg tells the Demonrats that Clintin won tye Catholic vote by 7 points, Gore lost it by 7 and Kerry lost it by 14 (and is allegedly a Catholic), AND the Demonrats paid the high fees of Carville, Greenberg and Shrum to study the subject, you can take it to the bank that the Demonrats are facing a situation in which Catholics are fleeing the Demonratic horror at record speed. Catholics have seldom provided a majority of their votes to the GOP but are now doing so and the momentum of the party switch is strong.

Two more points:

First: Most Mexicans (America's fastest growing minority) crossing the border are Catholic and are most certainly not social leftists, abortion-lovers, lavender sympathizers, et al.

Second: If you factor out the non-church goers (about half of those considering themselves Catholic), the actually Catholic (i.e. church-going) vote is very heavily Republican. Bear in mind that in the lifetime of baby boomers, the Catholic Church USED to be known as "The Democratic Party at prayer."

49 posted on 04/12/2005 3:32:00 PM PDT by BlackElk (Dean of Discipline of the Tomas de Torquemada Gentlemen's Club)
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To: cripplecreek
Hillary's silence on Terri Schiavo, John Bolton, the pope and any other number of high profile issues indicates that she's going to play the centrist role.

The ugly truth is: Mrs. Clinton doesn't have to speak on any issue. She has a free pass.

50 posted on 04/12/2005 3:32:10 PM PDT by Right_in_Virginia
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