Catholic Ping
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Posted on 04/12/2005 2:43:56 PM PDT by ninenot
Culture & Cosmos
April 12, 2005 Volume 2, Number 36
Democratic Strategists Issue Memo on Loss of Catholics
A memo authored by a prominent Democratic strategy organization calls the decline in support of white Catholics for Democrats "striking" and "a big part of the 2004 election story." One of the analysis' key findings is that Catholic voters are becoming more pro-life which the authors called "a factor in the recent losses and one of the blockages for Democrats, at least in the Midwest." The data also reveals that young Catholics are more pro-life than their parents and that bishops who speak out against pro-abortion politicians help bolster the pro-life vote.
The abortion issue is particularly potent for a group called "Democratic defectors" who either identified themselves as Democrats or voted for Bill Clinton in 1996 but voted for President Bush in the last election. Among this group, "26 percent believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases, nearly three times the number for all Catholic Democrats."
The memo was issued by Democracy Corps, a research and tactical advice organization founded by Democrat strategy virtuosos James Carville, Stanley Greenberg and Bob Shrum. Titled "Reclaiming the White Catholic Vote," it is based on data from a nationwide survey of more than a 1,000 white Catholic voters. The decline in the white Catholic vote has been steady over the last decade. Clinton won it by seven percentage points; Al Gore lost it by seven points; and Sen. John Kerry lost it by 14 points. The data provided in the report provides a fascinating window into the much discussed Catholic vote and makes it clear Democrats are losing ground because of their stance on a range of cultural issues.
It turns out that one of the most contentious and visible issues in the 2004 election, the denial of the Eucharist to pro-abortion politicians, did not hurt the pro-life side as many said it would. The poll found that when white Catholics were asked whether or not they were more or less likely to vote for a Democrat that "is denied communion by the area's bishop for voting to support abortion rights" 49 percent said they were less likely while 33 percent said they were more likely.
The memo also made it clear that the abortion issue is not going away. "Although the pro-life position is strongest among seniors, Catholics current pro-life position does not appear likely to lessen with time. While middle-age Catholics lean toward keeping abortion legal, voters under 30 are more pro-life: 53 percent believe abortion should be illegal in most cases." The pro-life position could be a winning one for Democrats according to the study. Fifty-nine percent of white Catholics say they are more likely to support a Democratic candidate who is pro-life and 35 percent say they are less likely, giving a pro-life Democrat a 24 point advantage. Even on the East Coast where Catholics are less pro-life, a pro-life Democrat has a 12 point advantage over a pro-abortion candidate.
The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue by presenting themselves as one who "[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption." This common ground approach is reminiscent of a recent speech given by New York Senator and likely presidential candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in which she softened her approach to abortion by calling it a "tragic choice." In the speech she said faith-based abstinence should be embraced but also called on increased funding for "family planning services," a euphemism for contraception, abortifacients and abortions.
I believe they will let a Supreme Court Judge be seated. Then they can blame any future abortion decision on the Court and maintain it was in the best interest of the country as a whole, NOT to filibuster. Anyways, they sure as hell don't want the filibuster bit active IF they get the Whitehouse.
Let's face it. Hillary cares about no one except herself. If she cared about her daughter, she would have left the perv along time ago.
Memo's purpose: How best can we fool these Catholics at the next election, much as we despise them and their so-called "God"?"
American Catholics, sad to say, are by and large pro abortion. I think they are fairly democratic on balance, but the dems lose them when they get extreme on the issue.
Dems lose many Catholics when they overstate their support of abortion - against parental notification for minors seeking abortion, and against the ban on partial birth abortion.
President Clinton's screed was "Safe Legal and Rare"
It turns out that one of the most contentious and visible issues in the 2004 election, the denial of the Eucharist to pro-abortion politicians, did not hurt the pro-life side as many said it would.That became obvious to us during the election. The Eucharist issue focused attention on the candidates abortion stances. The result was that the pro-life Catholics realized how bad the Democratic candidates were. Had that attention not been focused on the candidate's abortion stances, many voters might have ignorantly or foolishly pulled the lever for the Dem., thinking he wasn't so bad because he "seemed" pro-life when he talked to them. When the Bishops talked about denying the Eucharist, the naive among us started to realize that no matter how nice the guy sounded on abortion, the reality was that they voted for evil, and that the words were empty.
I'm convinced that the Eucharist issue could have hurt pro-lifers had it been pushed hard all the way to the conclusion of excommunication (during an election), but that its limited press play actually helped us, as it was raised, and then largely dropped, but the focus on abortion was still there.
The poll found that when white Catholics were asked whether or not they were more or less likely to vote for a Democrat that "is denied communion by the area's bishop for voting to support abortion rights" 49 percent said they were less likely while 33 percent said they were more likely.These results are nearly meaningless. Obviously 82% (49+33) of the Catholics were not swing voters who could be moved by a Bishop talking about denying the Eucharist. Obviously that isn't the case, so we are including quite a few people who are ALWAYS going to vote for one side or the other. These people may say the Bishop's actions make them more likely to vote a particular way, but in reality they are pretty well along the way already. What would be valuable is to poll only those who are swing voters on this question. That would tell us
Also, keep in mind that the poll group's population was already heavily weighted against voting for the pro-abortion candidate, so seeing 49% say "less likely" here is rather unsurprising.
The memo advises Democrat candidates to get around the issue by presenting themselves as one who "[b]elieves in a woman's right to choose but believes all sides should come together around the common goal of preventing and reducing the number of abortions, with more sex ed, including abstinence, access to contraception and more adoption."Maybe I missed things, but I thought this had been their approach for the last decade. I don't think it will work.
I'm pretty sure Kerry tried real hard to tell Catholics he "personally opposed" abortion.
patent
I recall one in particular, who was emphatic---very emphatic---that the orthodox Bishops were effectively going to not ONLY create a "sympathy vote," but ALSO alienate Catholics.
IIRC, the emphatic noises came from a dusty little cattle-stop near Dallas.
He's on my pinglist.
Well, I still think that using Deal Hudson as the vehicle of choice to get the message to Catholics was one of the dumber moves by ol' Karl--
But then, nobody's perfect.
That's why they want ex-cons to get the vote..it's their fastest growing demographic.
>>>>Specifically of interest is the fact that denying Communion to the CINO's actually DOES hurt the CINO's in the ballot box.
Not proven based on the data here. It didn't hurt this time. FWIW, I spent alot of time looking at polling data during the election. I didn't think it was hurting then either, but I also have never had good data on what denying the Eucharist does to actual swing voters. For the data to be meaningful you need to remove voters whose minds were long ago made up, and measure the swing voters.
That said, I don't care what it does at the polls, I think that Communion should be denied.
patent
P.S., thanks for posting this, very intersting.
patent
Cottage Cheese Hillary's voting record for abortion is 100%, as reported by her friends at NARAL. Now, will CNN report that? Or will they talk about how she's now a "centrist?" (like John Kerry and Howard Dean were!).
I doubt it.
They already have the depraved, criminal, ignorant, feminazi, homo, race baiting, jewish, old farts vote all sewn up.
The vote that scares me for the future is young people since that is the only way they can grow in numbers.
I wonder. On a lot of polls (which, by the way, reflect declining support for abortion overall), I would bet a lot of people "agree" with keeping it legal because they've been conned into thinking that's the respectable position. Every so often you hear or read of someone who says, "Well, I would never have one myself because I think it's wrong, but . . . ."
>>>>American Catholics, sad to say, are by and large pro abortion.
No they aren't.
patent
LOL
I know many self-identified Catholics who aren't notably impressed by church teaching. They have been democratic voters for a long time. They know what the dems stand for - they are in that fold.
I also don't believe the rhetoric - 'I would never have one, but...' The truth is that there have been almost 40million abortions in the last 30 years, and about 1.4 million abortions a year. Clearly to me some of those 'I'd never do it myself' women are getting abortions.
To me, I think many people think abortion is wrong, but they can see themselves in an inconvenient or inexplicable pregnancy. It's easier for them to get an abortion quietly rather than upset their status quo (angering or alienating a boyfriend, husband, whatever who clearly isn't the father, for example).
While they know its wrong, they like having it there. Sorry, that's the way I see it - 40,000,000 abortions and 1.4million a year can't all be confused teens, you know.
IIRC, this is precisely the position HRC has taken, recently, and loudly.
Co-incidence, I suppose?
Catholic Ping
Please freepmail me if you want on/off this list
Stanley Greenberg is probably the best the Demonrats have. It is likely that he invented the term "pro-choice" via his focus groups as the best marketing tool to make baby slaughter alomost vaguely tolerable. If he is warning the Demonrats on abortion, surrender by them may be in sight. Won't that be a lovely catfight?????
A confusing element in polls is that the fallen away who haven't darkened a church door in 20 years continue to self-identify as Catholic. (This doesn't even count the outright heretics.)
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